← Pacific El Niño Tracker

Current reference coverage

Portal v199 · register checked 2026-10-29. Counts refer to evidence mappings, not unique publications.

184 active records provide a source locator rather than an exact extract. These include 162 reviewed source summaries: attributed paraphrases with limitations, not verified quotations. Withdrawn records are historical and are not added to the active total.

A source extract confirms wording or location, not the correctness of the full claim, causation, official endorsement, approval or funding. Source context and portal interpretation retain separate review labels.

Original-edition follow-up

E0001 · NOAA NMME seasonal precipitation probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1

American Samoa · 2026-08

The exact August 2026 USAPI graphic is still missing. Official archive regional files displaying June 2021 initialization were rejected. A separately labelled global graphic of the same initialization corroborates the broad category; original-image recovery remains outstanding.

Optional archive recovery: supply the original regional USAPI graphic for IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026. A separately labelled same-period global map is available; the missing regional edition is not hidden or represented as recovered.

E0004 · NOAA NMME seasonal precipitation probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1

American Samoa · 2026-08

The exact August 2026 USAPI graphic is still missing. Official archive regional files displaying June 2021 initialization were rejected. A separately labelled global graphic of the same initialization corroborates the broad category; original-image recovery remains outstanding.

Optional archive recovery: supply the original regional USAPI graphic for IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026. A separately labelled same-period global map is available; the missing regional edition is not hidden or represented as recovered.

E0005 · NOAA NMME seasonal 2-metre temperature probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1

American Samoa · 2026-08

The exact August 2026 USAPI graphic is still missing. Official archive regional files displaying June 2021 initialization were rejected. A separately labelled global graphic of the same initialization corroborates the broad category; original-image recovery remains outstanding.

Optional archive recovery: supply the original regional USAPI graphic for IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026. A separately labelled same-period global map is available; the missing regional edition is not hidden or represented as recovered.

E0024 · NOAA NMME seasonal precipitation probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1

American Samoa · 2026-08

The exact August 2026 USAPI graphic is still missing. Official archive regional files displaying June 2021 initialization were rejected. A separately labelled global graphic of the same initialization corroborates the broad category; original-image recovery remains outstanding.

Optional archive recovery: supply the original regional USAPI graphic for IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026. A separately labelled same-period global map is available; the missing regional edition is not hidden or represented as recovered.

E0120 · NOAA NMME seasonal precipitation probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1

Guam · 2026-08

For Guam, the earlier portal entry attributed approximately 50% probability of below-normal SON 2026 rainfall to the NOAA August USAPI map; that original issue has not been recovered. The reviewed NOAA global map (IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026) shows an approximately 70% below-normal category in the nearby coarse grid. These are different products, not precise island probabilities or two independently verified conflicting originals. The portal uses the traceable global map for the dry direction and retains the legacy value for comparison.

Optional archive recovery: supply the original regional USAPI graphic for IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026. A separately labelled same-period global map is available; the missing regional edition is not hidden or represented as recovered.

E0124 · NOAA NMME seasonal precipitation probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1

Guam · 2026-08

For Guam, the earlier portal entry attributed approximately 50% probability of below-normal SON 2026 rainfall to the NOAA August USAPI map; that original issue has not been recovered. The reviewed NOAA global map (IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026) shows an approximately 70% below-normal category in the nearby coarse grid. These are different products, not precise island probabilities or two independently verified conflicting originals. The portal uses the traceable global map for the dry direction and retains the legacy value for comparison.

Optional archive recovery: supply the original regional USAPI graphic for IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026. A separately labelled same-period global map is available; the missing regional edition is not hidden or represented as recovered.

E0125 · NOAA NMME seasonal 2-metre temperature probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1

Guam · 2026-08

The exact August 2026 USAPI graphic is still missing. Official archive regional files displaying June 2021 initialization were rejected. A separately labelled global graphic of the same initialization corroborates the broad category; original-image recovery remains outstanding.

Optional archive recovery: supply the original regional USAPI graphic for IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026. A separately labelled same-period global map is available; the missing regional edition is not hidden or represented as recovered.

E0141 · NOAA NMME seasonal precipitation probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1

Guam · 2026-08

For Guam, the earlier portal entry attributed approximately 50% probability of below-normal SON 2026 rainfall to the NOAA August USAPI map; that original issue has not been recovered. The reviewed NOAA global map (IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026) shows an approximately 70% below-normal category in the nearby coarse grid. These are different products, not precise island probabilities or two independently verified conflicting originals. The portal uses the traceable global map for the dry direction and retains the legacy value for comparison.

Optional archive recovery: supply the original regional USAPI graphic for IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026. A separately labelled same-period global map is available; the missing regional edition is not hidden or represented as recovered.

E0238 · NOAA NMME seasonal precipitation probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1

Northern Mariana Islands · 2026-08

For southern CNMI, the earlier portal entry attributed approximately 50% probability of below-normal SON 2026 rainfall to the NOAA August USAPI map; that original issue has not been recovered. The reviewed NOAA global map (IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026) shows an approximately 60% below-normal category in the nearby coarse grid. These are different products, not precise island probabilities or two independently verified conflicting originals. The portal uses the traceable global map for the dry direction and retains the legacy value for comparison.

Optional archive recovery: supply the original regional USAPI graphic for IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026. A separately labelled same-period global map is available; the missing regional edition is not hidden or represented as recovered.

E0242 · NOAA NMME seasonal precipitation probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1

Northern Mariana Islands · 2026-08

For southern CNMI, the earlier portal entry attributed approximately 50% probability of below-normal SON 2026 rainfall to the NOAA August USAPI map; that original issue has not been recovered. The reviewed NOAA global map (IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026) shows an approximately 60% below-normal category in the nearby coarse grid. These are different products, not precise island probabilities or two independently verified conflicting originals. The portal uses the traceable global map for the dry direction and retains the legacy value for comparison.

Optional archive recovery: supply the original regional USAPI graphic for IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026. A separately labelled same-period global map is available; the missing regional edition is not hidden or represented as recovered.

E0243 · NOAA NMME seasonal 2-metre temperature probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1

Northern Mariana Islands · 2026-08

The exact August 2026 USAPI graphic is still missing. Official archive regional files displaying June 2021 initialization were rejected. A separately labelled global graphic of the same initialization corroborates the broad category; original-image recovery remains outstanding.

Optional archive recovery: supply the original regional USAPI graphic for IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026. A separately labelled same-period global map is available; the missing regional edition is not hidden or represented as recovered.

E0258 · NOAA NMME seasonal precipitation probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1

Northern Mariana Islands · 2026-08

For southern CNMI, the earlier portal entry attributed approximately 50% probability of below-normal SON 2026 rainfall to the NOAA August USAPI map; that original issue has not been recovered. The reviewed NOAA global map (IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026) shows an approximately 60% below-normal category in the nearby coarse grid. These are different products, not precise island probabilities or two independently verified conflicting originals. The portal uses the traceable global map for the dry direction and retains the legacy value for comparison.

Optional archive recovery: supply the original regional USAPI graphic for IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026. A separately labelled same-period global map is available; the missing regional edition is not hidden or represented as recovered.

Coverage JSON · Follow-up JSON

Historical audits: v151 · v153. These retain their original status and are not the current register.