See where El Niño risk is building—and what evidence supports each action.
Outlook, observed conditions and readiness are kept separate. Select any jurisdiction to inspect its sources, valid period and recommended next actions.
Operational timeline
30 August 2026 baseline
Valid period: September–November 2026
1 verified snapshot
As of 30 August 2026
This is the first formal snapshot. The slider will become active as monthly updates are preserved; earlier source dates are not presented as a complete time series.
Map layer
Current hazard signal
Colours show the current outlook class. They do not measure causal attribution to El Niño.
Dry / drought risk
Wet / flood risk
Spatially mixed
Monitor / no strong signal
Insufficient evidence
Territory · United States
American Samoa
ASM
Dry / drought riskHigh confidence
Valid period
September–November 2026
Assessed
30 August 2026
Outlook
Drier for September–November; NOAA's coarse-grid seasonal model places the territory in an approximately 70% below-normal rainfall category
Observed conditions
American Samoa remained in D1 moderate short-term drought in the U.S. Drought Monitor valid 25 August 2026. This is a dated monitoring classification, not a declaration of uniform impact across the territory.
Spatial qualification
The seasonal model also indicates an approximately 70% below-normal 2-metre temperature category. Both are probability maps, not impact forecasts, and short intense rain and tropical-cyclone impacts remain possible.
Confidence rationale: High for the seasonal direction and dated drought class; moderate for sector impacts
Map disclaimer: Boundaries, names and designations are shown for visualization only and do not imply any position regarding legal status, sovereignty, jurisdiction, or the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries. Map information may be generalized or incomplete.
Country drill-down
Subnational view · American Samoa
Recognisable boundaries provide geographic context. Coloured points are sourced historical locations; no point or polygon is presented as an intensity estimate.
The uniform tint repeats the national outlook class only. It must not be read as equal hazard intensity in every administrative unit.
Country/territory outline only; no compatible ADM1 layer was available in this release. Show evidence as sourced points or labels, not polygon intensity.
Current spatial qualification
The seasonal model also indicates an approximately 70% below-normal 2-metre temperature category. Both are probability maps, not impact forecasts, and short intense rain and tropical-cyclone impacts remain possible.
Evidence register
Sources used for American Samoa
Exact URLs, dates, locators and verification status from the shared evidence model.
NOAA / National Integrated Drought Information System / Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center
—
Climatological guidance; current forecasts and observations take precedence.
30 August 2026
Verified
likely impacts
El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response
SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council
2026-06-13
Describes the western-dry/central-eastern-wet tendency and eastward cyclone-genesis shift.
30 August 2026
Verified
likely impacts
El Niño Impact on Tropical Cyclones in the Pacific
SPREP
2026-08-25
Historical conditioned baseline, not the yet-to-be-issued 2026–27 Southwest Pacific cyclone forecast.
30 August 2026
Verified
likely impacts
El Niño and health in the Pacific
World Health Organization Western Pacific
2015-07-16
Historical pathway evidence; use for preparedness design, not as evidence of current 2026 impacts.
30 August 2026
Verified
likely impacts
El Niño and its impacts on American Samoa
NOAA / National Integrated Drought Information System / Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center
—
Climatological guidance; current forecasts and observations take precedence.
30 August 2026
Verified
existing measures
El Niño Impact on Tropical Cyclones in the Pacific
SPREP
2026-08-25
Historical conditioned baseline, not the yet-to-be-issued 2026–27 Southwest Pacific cyclone forecast.
30 August 2026
Verified
existing measures
El Niño and its impacts on American Samoa
NOAA / National Integrated Drought Information System / Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center
—
Climatological guidance; current forecasts and observations take precedence.
30 August 2026
Verified
existing measures
American Samoa Hazard Mitigation
American Samoa Office of Disaster Assistance and Preparedness Management
2025
Territorial mitigation governance and 2025 plan status
30 August 2026
Verified
existing measures
El Niño water-conservation notice
American Samoa Power Authority
2026
Current conservation communication; operational details should be confirmed directly with the authority.
30 August 2026
Corroborated
existing measures
American Samoa El Niño drought-risk communication
American Samoa Department of Homeland Security
2026
Current risk communication; not evidence of a complete trigger-action-finance protocol.
30 August 2026
Corroborated
aa maturity
American Samoa Hazard Mitigation
American Samoa Office of Disaster Assistance and Preparedness Management
2025
Confirms the Territorial Hazard Mitigation Council, 2025 FEMA-approved plan and ordinary grant mechanisms; the plan itself was not publicly reviewed here.
30 August 2026
Verified
aa maturity
El Niño water-conservation notice
American Samoa Power Authority
2026
Current conservation communication; operational details should be confirmed directly with the authority.
30 August 2026
Corroborated
aa maturity
American Samoa El Niño drought-risk communication
American Samoa Department of Homeland Security
2026
Current risk communication; not evidence of a complete trigger-action-finance protocol.
30 August 2026
Corroborated
priority actions
FAO anticipatory action guidance for El Niño
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
—
Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation
30 August 2026
Verified
priority actions
El Niño and its impacts on American Samoa
NOAA / National Integrated Drought Information System / Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center
—
Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation
30 August 2026
Verified
priority actions
American Samoa Hazard Mitigation
American Samoa Office of Disaster Assistance and Preparedness Management
2025
Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation
30 August 2026
Verified
triggers to monitor
El Niño Impact on Tropical Cyclones in the Pacific
SPREP
2026-08-25
Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation
30 August 2026
Verified
triggers to monitor
U.S. Drought Monitor – U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands
NDMC / NOAA / USDA / NASA
2026-08-27
Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation
30 August 2026
Verified
triggers to monitor
NOAA NMME seasonal precipitation probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
2026-08
Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation
30 August 2026
Verified
historical story
Climate Impacts and Outlook: Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region, 1st Quarter 2016
NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center and regional partners