[{"id":"guam-nmme-son2026-rainfall","country_ids":["guam"],"evidence_ids":["E0120","E0124","E0141","E0836"],"measure":"Probability category for below-normal seasonal precipitation","unit":"percent; approximate map category, not station probability","period_start":"2026-09-01","period_end":"2026-11-30","comparison_status":"unverified_legacy_value_vs_reviewed_global_graphic","comparability_note":"Same initialization (August 2026) and target season (SON 2026), but different regional/global products. The exact regional issue is missing. This is not a verified disagreement between two recovered originals; coarse-grid categories are not precise island probabilities.","values":[{"id":"legacy-regional","value":50,"display_value":"approximately 50%","source_title":"NOAA NMME seasonal precipitation probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center (legacy portal attribution)","source_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pacdir/NMME1dir/prob_ensemble_prate_usapi_season1.png","source_issue_date":"2026-08","geography":"Guam as described by the earlier portal entry","method":"Legacy portal reading attributed to regional USAPI map; original August image not recovered","source_grade":"A (publisher); this value is not verified","verification_status":"unverified_legacy_entry"},{"id":"reviewed-global","value":70,"display_value":"approximately 70%","source_title":"NOAA NMME global precipitation probability map, IC=202608, lead 1, 2026 SON","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center","source_url":"https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/NMME/archive/2026080800/prob/images/prob_ensemble_prate_season1.png","source_issue_date":"2026-08","geography":"Coarse model grid near Guam","method":"Visual reading of the global graphic colour category; not a station or whole-territory probability","source_grade":"A (publisher); approximate visual interpretation","verification_status":"original_graphic_reviewed"}],"analysis_selection":{"value_id":"reviewed-global","reason":"The global same-period graphic is retrievable and its initialization, season and colour legend were inspected. Both products are NOAA; this is a traceability-based preference, not a claim that one NOAA publisher is more authoritative. The analysis uses the dry direction; any numeric use must retain the approximate grid-scale qualification.","application":"qualitative_dry_direction; numeric_category_only_with_scale_caveat"},"reviewed_at":"2026-10-12"},{"id":"northern-mariana-islands-nmme-son2026-rainfall","country_ids":["northern-mariana-islands"],"evidence_ids":["E0238","E0242","E0258","E0837"],"measure":"Probability category for below-normal seasonal precipitation","unit":"percent; approximate map category, not station probability","period_start":"2026-09-01","period_end":"2026-11-30","comparison_status":"unverified_legacy_value_vs_reviewed_global_graphic","comparability_note":"Same initialization (August 2026) and target season (SON 2026), but different regional/global products. The exact regional issue is missing. This is not a verified disagreement between two recovered originals; coarse-grid categories are not precise island probabilities.","values":[{"id":"legacy-regional","value":50,"display_value":"approximately 50%","source_title":"NOAA NMME seasonal precipitation probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center (legacy portal attribution)","source_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pacdir/NMME1dir/prob_ensemble_prate_usapi_season1.png","source_issue_date":"2026-08","geography":"southern CNMI as described by the earlier portal entry","method":"Legacy portal reading attributed to regional USAPI map; original August image not recovered","source_grade":"A (publisher); this value is not verified","verification_status":"unverified_legacy_entry"},{"id":"reviewed-global","value":60,"display_value":"approximately 60%","source_title":"NOAA NMME global precipitation probability map, IC=202608, lead 1, 2026 SON","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center","source_url":"https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/NMME/archive/2026080800/prob/images/prob_ensemble_prate_season1.png","source_issue_date":"2026-08","geography":"Coarse model grid near southern CNMI","method":"Visual reading of the global graphic colour category; not a station or whole-territory probability","source_grade":"A (publisher); approximate visual interpretation","verification_status":"original_graphic_reviewed"}],"analysis_selection":{"value_id":"reviewed-global","reason":"The global same-period graphic is retrievable and its initialization, season and colour legend were inspected. Both products are NOAA; this is a traceability-based preference, not a claim that one NOAA publisher is more authoritative. The analysis uses the dry direction; any numeric use must retain the approximate grid-scale qualification.","application":"qualitative_dry_direction; numeric_category_only_with_scale_caveat"},"reviewed_at":"2026-10-12"}]