{"meta":{"title":"Pacific El Niño Outlook, Evidence and Action Tracker","evidence_cutoff":"13 October 2026","data_version":"2026-10-14.1","schema_version":"2.4.0","generated_at":"2026-10-14T00:45:00Z","enso_status":"El Niño continues to strengthen; strong-to-very strong event likely through January–March 2027 (greater than 83% chance)","enso_status_issue_date":"8 October 2026","enso_status_source":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_oct2026/ensodisc.pdf","enso_status_confidence":"High — NOAA official probabilistic ENSO outlook; country-level impacts remain conditional"},"snapshots":[{"snapshot_id":"2026-08-30","label":"30 August 2026 baseline","as_of_date":"30 August 2026","valid_period":"September–November 2026","status":"operational","note":"First formal versioned snapshot. Earlier publication dates are retained as evidence but are not presented as a complete historical time series.","kind":"climate"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-09-02-context-redesign","label":"2 September 2026 methodology and interface revision","as_of_date":"2 September 2026","valid_period":"September–November 2026","status":"partial_backfill","note":"Adds INFORM 2026 structural context, explicit source-system coverage and revised map semantics. Country outlook assessments remain dated individually; this is not a new meteorological forecast cycle.","kind":"evidence"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-09-03-nz-outlook","label":"3 September 2026 New Zealand outlook update","as_of_date":"3 September 2026","valid_period":"September–November 2026","status":"operational","note":"Updates the New Zealand profile from the August–October outlook to the official September–November 2026 national outlook issued by Earth Sciences New Zealand on 2 September. Other country and area assessments retain their individually dated sources.","kind":"climate"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-09-04-official-updates","label":"4 September 2026 official ENSO, observations and Fiji sector updates","as_of_date":"4 September 2026","valid_period":"September–November 2026","status":"operational","note":"Adds WMO's 3 September global ENSO update, the U.S. Drought Monitor valid 1 September for six U.S.-affiliated Pacific jurisdictions, and Fiji's official September sugarcane rainfall outlook and advisory. Country seasonal classifications are unchanged; WMO's national-impact caveat and Fiji's low-confidence qualification are retained.","kind":"climate"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-09-05-australia-outlook","label":"5 September 2026 Australia outlook update","as_of_date":"5 September 2026","valid_period":"September–November 2026","status":"operational","note":"Updates Australia's profile to the Bureau of Meteorology outlook issued 3 September and Southern Hemisphere Monitoring issued 1 September. The national signal remains mixed; probability ranges, timing and observed ENSO/IOD values are refreshed.","kind":"climate"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-09-10-official-updates","label":"10 September 2026 NOAA ENSO and Pacific drought update","as_of_date":"10 September 2026","valid_period":"September–November 2026","status":"operational","note":"Adds NOAA CPC's 10 September monthly ENSO discussion and the U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8 September. Palau deteriorates from D0-S to D1-S; other U.S.-affiliated Pacific classifications are retained with updated weekly observations. Seasonal country outlook classes are unchanged, and NOAA's warning that impacts are not guaranteed is retained.","kind":"climate"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-09-10-fiji-early-action-rainfall-watch","label":"10 September 2026 Fiji Early Action Rainfall Watch","as_of_date":"10 September 2026","valid_period":"September–November 2026","status":"operational","note":"Adds Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services' September Early Action Rainfall Watch. It records multi-timescale dryness through August and a very high chance of very dry conditions nationwide during September and September–November. Forecasts, observed status and potential affected systems remain separately labelled; Fiji's dry seasonal class is unchanged.","kind":"climate"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-09-12-local-observations-sst","label":"12 September 2026 · local rainfall and SST layers","as_of_date":"12 September 2026","valid_period":"Layer-specific observation periods; seasonal outlooks unchanged","status":"operational","note":"Adds ten Fiji local rainfall records through August, with source-backed island references, and NOAA SST observations for 10 September issued 11 September. Existing country outlooks retain their dates.","kind":"monitoring"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-09-12-inclusion-evidence","label":"12 September 2026 · inclusion evidence indexing","as_of_date":"12 September 2026","valid_period":"June 2026 regional context and April 2024 historical reports; current climate cutoff unchanged","status":"operational","note":"Adds source extracts and fixes inclusion discovery. No current national impact or outlook classification changed.","kind":"evidence"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-09-13-australia-ond-outlook","label":"13 September 2026 · Australia October–December outlook","as_of_date":"13 September 2026","valid_period":"October–December 2026 supplement; September–November profile retained","status":"operational","note":"Adds BoM rainfall and temperature outlooks issued 10 September and coastal SST observations through 6 September. The existing September–November assessment and Mixed class are preserved; forecast and observation periods remain explicit.","kind":"climate"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-09-14-tuvalu-water-readiness","label":"14 September 2026 · Tuvalu communal water readiness","as_of_date":"14 September 2026","valid_period":"Current implementation status reported 8 September 2026; commissioning pending","status":"operational","note":"Adds SPC’s primary institutional account of four completed communal cisterns on Funafuti, their community-maintenance approach and reported next-phase water-security plans. The tracker does not treat expected benefits as measured outcomes.","kind":"readiness"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-09-16-bom-monitoring","label":"16 September 2026 · BoM monitoring through 13 September","as_of_date":"16 September 2026","valid_period":"Observations through 13 September 2026; seasonal outlooks retain their original periods","status":"operational","note":"Adds four dated BoM observations. IOD remains neutral; country classifications and national warnings are unchanged. Gallery additions are historical, not current climate evidence.","download_url":"/downloads/snapshots/2026-09-16-bom-monitoring.json","kind":"monitoring"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-09-17-noaa-pacific-quarterly","label":"17 September 2026 · NOAA Pacific quarterly climate update","as_of_date":"17 September 2026","valid_period":"Observed rainfall: June–August 2026; seasonal rainfall outlook: September–November 2026; coral heat-stress outlook: September–December 2026","status":"operational","note":"Adds a dated official NOAA regional report with station observations and spatially explicit outlooks. It does not attribute cyclone impacts to El Niño, create a national impact score, change classifications or replace national warnings. The evidence cutoff remains 15 September 2026.","download_url":"/downloads/snapshots/2026-09-17-noaa-pacific-quarterly.json","kind":"climate"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-09-18-drought-and-field-reports","label":"18 September 2026 · weekly drought and attributed field reports","as_of_date":"18 September 2026","valid_period":"Official weekly drought classifications valid 15 September 2026; attributed field reporting published 16 September 2026","status":"operational","note":"Adds official weekly USDM observations and explicitly Grade-B, location-specific ABC reporting for PNG and Vanuatu. Source reliability and analytical confidence remain separate. Seasonal classifications and national warnings are unchanged.","download_url":"/downloads/snapshots/2026-09-18-drought-and-field-reports.json","kind":"evidence"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-09-19-pmmm-pmc8-outcomes","label":"19 September 2026 · PMMM-4 technical assessment and PMC-8 outcomes","as_of_date":"19 September 2026","valid_period":"Regional technical and governance sources published through 18 September 2026","status":"operational","note":"Adds the official Pacific RCC Network El Niño and sea-level assessment, SPC–UNDRR stocktake counts, PMC-8 decisions and Weather Ready Pacific planning approval. Proposals, forecasts and adopted decisions retain distinct status; seasonal classes and national warnings are unchanged.","download_url":"/downloads/snapshots/2026-09-19-pmmm-pmc8-outcomes.json","kind":"evidence"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-09-21-australia-outlook","label":"21 September 2026 · Australia outlook issued 17 September","as_of_date":"21 September 2026","valid_period":"October–December 2026, with separate October-only rainfall guidance","status":"operational","kind":"climate","note":"Adds three primary official forecast records. Preserves the September–November profile, Mixed classification, observed conditions and national warnings. Evidence cutoff remains 18 September 2026.","download_url":"/downloads/snapshots/2026-09-21-australia-outlook.json"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-09-22-review","label":"22 September 2026 · usability and census source integration","as_of_date":"22 September 2026","valid_period":"Source-specific periods; climate evidence cutoff remains 18 September 2026","status":"operational","kind":"evidence","note":"Adds source-checked Fiji 2020 structural baseline records and Republic of Naoero display name. Historical source titles and stable identifiers are retained. No new current impact estimates or unpublished WFP material.","download_url":"/downloads/snapshots/2026-09-22-review.json"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-09-24-pcric-drought-finance","label":"24 September 2026 · Pacific drought anticipatory finance update","as_of_date":"24 September 2026","valid_period":"Institutional reports published 19–21 September 2026","status":"operational","kind":"evidence","note":"Adds three Grade-B first-party institutional records. Tonga’s reported payout is separated from expenditure and outcomes; RMI policy development is separated from active coverage. Seasonal classifications and national warnings are unchanged.","download_url":"/downloads/snapshots/2026-09-24-pcric-drought-finance.json"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-09-25-australia-outlook","label":"25 September 2026 · Australia forecast and SST update","as_of_date":"25 September 2026","valid_period":"October–December forecast; separate October-only forecast; SST observations through 20 September","status":"operational","kind":"evidence","note":"Four primary official records from the 24 September issue. Earlier evidence, seasonal classifications and national warnings retained. Gallery screening does not set the evidence cutoff.","download_url":"/downloads/snapshots/2026-09-25-australia-outlook.json"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-09-25-usdm-weekly","label":"25 September 2026 · weekly Pacific drought monitoring","as_of_date":"25 September 2026","valid_period":"U.S. Drought Monitor valid 22 September 2026; published 24 September 2026","status":"operational","kind":"evidence","note":"Adds four Grade-A, location-specific monitoring records. American Samoa improves to D0-S; Kapingamarangi deteriorates to D1-S; Utirik remains D0-S and Palau remains D1-S. Seasonal outlook classes and national warnings are unchanged.","download_url":"/downloads/snapshots/2026-09-25-usdm-weekly.json"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-09-27-usgs-usapi-guidance","label":"27 September 2026 · USGS USAPI preparedness synthesis","as_of_date":"27 September 2026","valid_period":"Undated USGS technical synthesis; reviewed 28 September 2026","status":"operational","kind":"evidence","note":"Adds eight A-minus records on historical drought timing, atoll freshwater-lens risk, logistics, biosecurity and fisheries management. The source is guidance rather than current monitoring. Seasonal classifications, observed conditions, the evidence cutoff and national warnings are unchanged.","download_url":"/downloads/snapshots/2026-09-27-usgs-usapi-guidance.json"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-09-28-niwa-icu312","label":"28 September 2026 · Pacific October–December rainfall supplement","as_of_date":"28 September 2026","valid_period":"October–December 2026 supplement; September–November profiles retained","status":"operational","kind":"evidence","note":"Adds 22 Grade-A country or territory records from Island Climate Update 312, issued 17 September. Dry, wet and internally mixed October–December signals are kept separate from the current September–November profile classifications. Current observations, impacts and national warnings are unchanged.","download_url":"/downloads/snapshots/2026-09-28-niwa-icu312.json"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-09-30-bom-monitoring","label":"30 September 2026 · BoM monitoring issued 29 September","as_of_date":"30 September 2026","valid_period":"Observations through 26–27 September 2026; forecasts retain their original periods","status":"operational","kind":"evidence","note":"Four official observed-climate records. IOD remains neutral. Seasonal country classes and national warnings are unchanged.","download_url":"/downloads/snapshots/2026-09-30-bom-monitoring.json"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-10-01-palau-spc-preparedness","label":"1 October 2026 · Palau reported preparedness project","as_of_date":"1 October 2026","valid_period":"SPC release dated 16 September 2026; project launch reported 4 September","status":"operational","kind":"evidence","note":"Two newly indexed official project records; climate evidence cutoff remains 29 September 2026.","download_url":"/downloads/snapshots/2026-10-01-palau-spc-preparedness.json"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-10-02-official-forecasts-and-drought","label":"2 October 2026 · Fiji/Australia forecasts and Pacific drought monitoring","as_of_date":"2 October 2026","valid_period":"USDM valid 29 September; forecasts for October, October–December and Fiji January–March 2027","status":"operational","kind":"climate","note":"Twelve primary official records. Utirik D0 removed; other monitoring updates remain location-specific. Forecast periods are explicit. No change to national warnings or earlier seasonal classifications.","download_url":"/downloads/snapshots/2026-10-02-official-forecasts-and-drought.json"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-10-06-regional-watch-and-australia-observations","label":"6 October 2026 · SPREP near-term regional watch and Australia observations","as_of_date":"6 October 2026","valid_period":"SPREP guidance valid 3–16 October (tropical-cyclone outlook 5–11 October); Australia observations cover September 2026","status":"operational","kind":"climate","note":"Fifteen Grade A records from two primary official sources. Regional SPREP guidance is explicitly separated from national warnings and observed impacts; Australian observations are not causally attributed to El Niño.","download_url":"/downloads/snapshots/2026-10-06-regional-watch-and-australia-observations.json"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-10-07-fiji-hydropower-outlook","label":"7 October 2026 · Fiji hydropower rainfall observations and outlook","as_of_date":"7 October 2026","valid_period":"Observed rainfall through September; forecasts for October and October–December 2026","status":"operational","kind":"climate","note":"Three Grade A records from a Fiji Met sector bulletin. Observed rainfall is separated from forecast thresholds; no reservoir level, generation impact, EFL action, emergency status or national warning is inferred. The evidence cutoff remains 2 October because the bulletin was issued 1 October.","download_url":"/downloads/snapshots/2026-10-07-fiji-hydropower-outlook.json"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-10-07-noaa-weekly-enso-update","label":"7 October 2026 · NOAA CPC weekly ENSO observations","as_of_date":"7 October 2026","valid_period":"Weekly monitoring update prepared 5 October; RONI through July–September 2026","status":"operational","kind":"climate","note":"Five Grade A regional records from NOAA CPC. Weekly relative SST, three-month RONI, atmospheric and subsurface observations, and CFSv2 model guidance remain distinct. The official monthly probabilistic headline and all national warnings are unchanged.","download_url":"/downloads/snapshots/2026-10-07-noaa-weekly-enso-update.json"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-10-08-official-outlooks-and-fiji-impacts","label":"8 October 2026 · official ENSO, regional watch and observed Fiji impacts","as_of_date":"8 October 2026","valid_period":"NOAA monthly outlook; SPREP guidance for 10–23 October; Australia November–January outlook; Fiji observations for September","status":"operational","kind":"climate","note":"Forty-two Grade A records update the official ENSO headline, regional watch, Australian forecast and Fiji observations/impacts/actions. Regional guidance is not a national warning; reported Fiji impacts retain source scope and analytical qualification.","download_url":"/downloads/snapshots/2026-10-08-official-outlooks-and-fiji-impacts.json"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-10-09-usdm-weekly","label":"9 October 2026 · Pacific weekly drought monitoring","as_of_date":"9 October 2026","valid_period":"Weekly observations 30 September–6 October; classifications valid 6 October and released 8 October","status":"operational","kind":"monitoring","note":"Six Grade A records update local U.S. Drought Monitor conditions. Palau improved to D0-S; Kapingamarangi remains D1-S and Tutuila D0-S. These local designations do not replace national warnings or seasonal classifications.","download_url":"/downloads/snapshots/2026-10-09-usdm-weekly.json"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-10-10-noaa-ocean-briefing","label":"10 October 2026 · NOAA September ocean monitoring","as_of_date":"10 October 2026","valid_period":"September 2026 observations; briefing issued 9 October 2026","status":"operational","kind":"monitoring","note":"Four Grade A regional records add dataset-labelled ocean indices, historical comparisons, subsurface precursors and marine-heatwave monitoring. The 8 October official ENSO outlook, country classifications and national warnings are unchanged.","download_url":"/downloads/snapshots/2026-10-10-noaa-ocean-briefing.json"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-10-14-png-response-bom-methodology","label":"14 October 2026 · PNG official response and BoM SST methodology","as_of_date":"14 October 2026","valid_period":"PNG statement dated 12 October; BoM methodology change effective 13 October 2026","status":"operational","kind":"readiness","note":"Three Grade A records distinguish Papua New Guinea's official response directive, stated funding availability and planned National Security Advisory Council meeting. One Grade A methodology record documents BoM's SST dataset transition. Transfer, spending, delivery and meeting outcomes are not inferred. BoM says the dataset update does not change current ENSO or IOD assessments; the NOAA headline, signal classifications and national warnings are unchanged.","download_url":"/downloads/snapshots/2026-10-14-png-response-bom-methodology.json"},{"snapshot_id":"2026-10-12-jma-wmo-official-crosscheck","label":"12 October 2026 · JMA and WMO official ENSO cross-check","as_of_date":"12 October 2026","valid_period":"September 2026 JMA observations; October–December 2026 WMO outlook; persistence guidance through February 2027","status":"operational","kind":"climate","note":"Four Grade A records add an official JMA NINO.3 observation/outlook and WMO multi-centre global seasonal guidance. Index definitions and baselines remain labelled. NOAA's 8 October official headline, country classifications and national warnings are unchanged; the evidence cutoff remains 9 October 2026.","download_url":"/downloads/snapshots/2026-10-12-jma-wmo-official-crosscheck.json"}],"profiles":[{"profile_id":"american-samoa","name":"American Samoa","iso2":"AS","iso3":"ASM","entity_type":"Territory","administering_state":"United States","selection_anchor":{"latitude":-14.279444,"longitude":-170.700556},"signal_class":"Dry","signal_label":"Drier for September–November; NOAA's coarse-grid seasonal model places the territory in an approximately 70% below-normal rainfall category","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"30 August 2026","spatial_note":"The seasonal model also indicates an approximately 70% below-normal 2-metre temperature category. Both are probability maps, not impact forecasts, and short intense rain and tropical-cyclone impacts remain possible. Later-period supplement issued 17 September: for October–December, significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and American Samoa is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions. This forecast is separate from the September–November profile classification.","outlook":"Drier for September–November; NOAA's coarse-grid seasonal model places the territory in an approximately 70% below-normal rainfall category","observed_conditions":"U.S. Drought Monitor valid 6 October 2026, released 8 October: Tutuila retained D0-S short-term abnormal dryness. Weekly rainfall ranged from 0.40 inch at Toa Ridge to 0.50 inch at Siufaga Ridge, with 0.44 inch over six days at Pago Pago Airport; this is a Tutuila monitoring classification, not a territory-wide emergency declaration. Seasonal outlooks, impacts and recovery cannot be inferred from this weekly monitoring update.","impacts":["Lower roof-water and catchment supply and higher demand on public systems","Food-garden and livestock stress and higher wildfire risk","Heat, smoke and WASH risks for households and outdoor workers","Cyclone or intense-rain impacts can interrupt drought response and contaminate stored water"],"readiness":"ASPA has issued public water-conservation recommendations, and DHS shares the same poster through its risk communication. These are two communication channels for one resource. Uptake, operational activation, approval, financing and a complete trigger-action-finance protocol are not established by these posts.","aa_status":"Preparedness; trigger finance not verified","actions":["Confirm village and utility water reserves, leaks, tanker capacity and priority-service needs against the current USDM classification","Stage fire prevention, safe-water testing and drought-tolerant food-garden support before conditions intensify","Publish escalation thresholds and the authority and financing attached to each level","Maintain cyclone, drainage and shelter readiness despite the dry seasonal mean"],"confidence":"High","confidence_rationale":"High for the seasonal direction and dated drought class; moderate for sector impacts","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation."},{"profile_id":"australia","name":"Australia","iso2":"AU","iso3":"AUS","entity_type":"Sovereign Country","administering_state":"","selection_anchor":{"latitude":-35.3075,"longitude":149.124417},"signal_class":"Mixed","signal_label":"Mixed: 60% to greater than 80% chance of below-average spring rainfall in parts of the south and east; 60% to greater than 80% chance of above-average rainfall across much of western Australia","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"5 September 2026","spatial_note":"Below-average spring rainfall is likely in far south-west Western Australia, south-eastern Australia including Tasmania, parts of eastern and northern Queensland and the northern Top End. Above-average rainfall is likely across most of Western Australia into western Northern Territory and South Australia. The dry signal is strongest in September; the west/north wet signal emerges from October, while southern Victoria and Tasmania remain drier throughout the season. A strong El Niño does not determine local impact severity. Later-period update issued 1 October: October–December rainfall remains geographically mixed, with wetter western/central areas and drier far northern/south-eastern areas. October-only guidance and temperature forecasts are recorded separately. Earlier forecasts remain in the evidence history; this supplement does not replace the September–November assessment.","outlook":"Mixed: 60% to greater than 80% chance of below-average rainfall in identified southern and eastern areas, and 60% to greater than 80% chance of above-average rainfall across much of the west; unusually high rainfall has a 50–80% chance across much of northern and central Western Australia","observed_conditions":"BoM monitoring issued 29 September reports relative Niño3.4 at +2.72°C and 30-day SOI at −20.5 through 27 September. IOD remains neutral despite three above-threshold weeks. Coastal SST observations through 26 September show warm western/southern waters and cooler areas to the north/north-east. These observations do not establish local impacts. Bureau observations published 2 October report Australia’s second warmest September on record, the Murray–Darling Basin’s second driest September, elevated fire-danger ratings in many areas, and reduced soil moisture and streamflow in specified regions. These observations are not attributed here to El Niño.","impacts":["Water-supply, groundwater, pasture, crop and stock-water stress in dry southern and eastern regions","Heat, wildfire and frost losses and delayed planting decisions","Local flooding, drainage and access disruption in wetter western and inland regions","A later northern wet-season onset can affect water, agriculture and fire planning"],"readiness":"Australia has substantial drought-preparedness policy and resilience finance, but the reviewed national material does not establish one automatic, forecast-triggered El Niño action and financing protocol; state arrangements require separate review.","aa_status":"Preparedness; trigger finance not verified","actions":["Use regional thresholds rather than a national drought trigger","Escalate water, feed, livestock-heat, crop/frost and wildfire readiness in the southeast and far southwest","Prepare drainage, flood response and access contingencies in wetter western and Northern Territory areas","Connect forecast thresholds to named actions, decision authority and financing and inventory state mechanisms"],"confidence":"High","confidence_rationale":"High for observations, outlook and typical signal; medium for national anticipatory-action classification","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation."},{"profile_id":"cook-islands","name":"Cook Islands","iso2":"CK","iso3":"COK","entity_type":"Self-Governing State In Free Association","administering_state":"New Zealand","selection_anchor":{"latitude":-21.2,"longitude":-159.766667},"signal_class":"Mixed","signal_label":"Mixed: northern Cook Islands wetter; southern Cook Islands drier, with high very-dry risk","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"30 August 2026","spatial_note":"The Sep–Nov outlook reverses the earlier Aug–Oct dry signal for the northern group; the southern group remains dry. El Niño climatology also shifts South Pacific cyclone activity eastward, but the official 2026–27 cyclone outlook was not yet issued at the cutoff. Later-period supplement issued 17 September: for October–December, northern Cook Islands favour significantly above-normal rainfall, while southern Cook Islands favour significantly below-normal rainfall and are among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions. This forecast is separate from the September–November profile classification. Regional near-term watch issued 1 October, valid 3–16 October: very wet, heat, marine-heatwave and coral-bleaching guidance is concentrated in the north; the southern coral alert was cancelled. This is pre-operational SPREP guidance for national meteorological services, not a national warning or observed impact.","outlook":"Mixed: northern Cook Islands wetter; southern Cook Islands drier, with high very-dry risk","observed_conditions":"Regional products indicate dry stress across parts of Polynesia; confirm island-level rainfall, storage and demand with the Cook Islands Meteorological Service and water authorities.","impacts":["Reduced roof-water and groundwater availability in the southern group","Food-garden and livestock stress, wildfire risk and higher water-delivery costs","Short heavy-rain events, drainage and WASH contamination risk in the northern group","East-shifted cyclone exposure during the 2026–27 season"],"readiness":"Drought early-warning architecture is being strengthened; no current pre-financed ENSO drought/flood protocol was verified.","aa_status":"Preparedness; trigger finance not verified","actions":["Set separate northern and southern island triggers and decision tables","Audit household/public storage, leaks, pumps, desalination spares and water-delivery logistics in the southern group","Prepare safe water harvesting, drainage clearance and WASH contamination protocols in the northern group","Align drought actions with cyclone readiness, evacuation support and accessible warnings","Pre-agree cash or voucher support for water, food and transport costs using inclusive targeting"],"confidence":"High","confidence_rationale":"High for seasonal direction; moderate for current impacts","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation."},{"profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","name":"Federated States of Micronesia","iso2":"FM","iso3":"FSM","entity_type":"Sovereign Country In Free Association","administering_state":"United States","selection_anchor":{"latitude":6.917222,"longitude":158.158889},"signal_class":"Mixed","signal_label":"Mixed: much of FSM drier; southern FSM wetter; western FSM has high very-dry risk","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"30 August 2026","spatial_note":"The broad west-dry/east/south-wet gradient shifts by season. State- and island-level planning is essential. The 2026 western North Pacific outlook favours above-normal cyclone activity for FSM. A regional ACCESS-S outlook projects sea level more than 30 cm below normal in parts of FSM for September–November; it must not be generalized to every island. Later-period supplement issued 17 September: for October–December, significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured across most of FSM, with much of FSM among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions. This forecast is separate from the September–November profile classification. Regional near-term watch issued 1 October: rainfall and tropical-cyclone occurrence watches were cancelled for the specified northern states and periods. This is pre-operational SPREP guidance for national meteorological services, not a national warning or observed impact.","outlook":"Mixed: much of FSM drier; southern FSM wetter; western FSM has high very-dry risk","observed_conditions":"U.S. Drought Monitor valid 6 October 2026, released 8 October: Kapingamarangi received 2.75 inches over six days and remained D1-S moderate short-term drought. No monitored station designation changed within FSM; this Kapingamarangi classification is not a nationwide FSM classification. Previously supplied material about Yap water discoloration and fish deaths remains a separate, causally unconfirmed report.","impacts":["Water scarcity, saltwater intrusion and food-garden stress in Yap and other dry islands","Drainage, landslide, vector and water-quality problems in wetter southern/eastern locations","More favourable environment for cyclone formation/intensification east of usual locations","Fisheries and reef impacts from changing SST, sea level and circulation"],"readiness":"No current formal, pre-financed drought/flood anticipatory-action framework was verified at national or state level.","aa_status":"Preparedness; trigger finance not verified","actions":["Use a state-by-state trigger table for Yap, Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae rather than one national trigger","In western islands, test wells, monitor salinity, protect tanks, stage water-treatment and pump/desalination spares, and support drought-resilient gardens","In wetter islands, clear drainage, protect wells and prepare vector/WASH surge capacity","Pre-position outer-island communications, medical supplies and cyclone shelter support","Verify and document unusual fish/reef observations through fisheries and environmental agencies","Monitor tuna catchability and fishing pressure alongside ocean conditions so habitat compression is not mistaken for stock growth"],"confidence":"High","confidence_rationale":"High for regional rainfall pattern; moderate for local impacts","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation."},{"profile_id":"fiji","name":"Fiji","iso2":"FJ","iso3":"FJI","entity_type":"Sovereign Country","administering_state":"","selection_anchor":{"latitude":-18.1416,"longitude":178.4419},"signal_class":"Dry","signal_label":"Drier nationwide, including a high very-dry risk","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"10 September 2026","spatial_note":"Fiji Met's 10 September Early Action Rainfall Watch gives a very high chance of very dry conditions across Fiji during September and September–November, and a very high chance across most divisions and Rotuma for 15–28 September. Its separate sugarcane outlook assigns a 75% chance to specified low rainfall ranges across the sugar belt but explicitly rates those quantitative ranges as low confidence. Tropical cyclones and short intense rain remain possible in a dry season. Later-period supplement issued 17 September: for October–December, significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and Fiji is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions. This forecast is separate from the September–November profile classification. National update issued 30 September: Fiji Met favours below-normal rainfall across all four divisions and Rotuma for October, October–December and January–March 2027. Monthly and seasonal temperature forecasts differ and are recorded separately. These later-period forecasts are not new observations. The hydropower advisory issued 1 October gives high-confidence dry guidance for October and October–December, with site-specific rainfall exceedance thresholds for Nadarivatu, Monasavu and Wailoa. It is a planning forecast for Energy Fiji Limited, not evidence of an operational action or impact.","outlook":"Drier nationwide, including a high very-dry risk","observed_conditions":"Fiji Met's rainfall status through August found very dry conditions on the three-month timescale across Vanua Levu, Vanuabalavu, northern Lau and parts of Makogai and Koro, with serious dryness in Taveuni and Cikobia. Cikobia and Rotuma were seriously dry on the six-month timescale, and Rotuma remained seriously dry on the 12-month timescale. These rainfall categories do not measure current water availability or service interruptions. A sector-specific Fiji Met bulletin issued 1 October reports Monasavu rainfall at 124 mm in September (43% of normal) and 576 mm for July–September (79% of normal), while April–September was near normal at 1,907 mm (109%). These figures do not measure reservoir storage, electricity output or service disruption.","impacts":["Reduced household, utility and agricultural water availability, especially in dry and northern zones","Lower reservoir inflows and higher thermal-generation/fuel exposure","Food-garden, commercial crop, pasture and livestock stress","Higher fire risk and smoke-related health effects","Protection and nutrition risks as water and food costs rise"],"readiness":"Fiji has documented cyclone anticipatory-action capacity, but a drought-specific trigger, financing and action protocol was not verified.","aa_status":"Preparedness; trigger finance not verified","actions":["Publish an inter-agency drought decision table linking Fiji Met thresholds to water, agriculture, energy, health and social-protection actions","Track reservoir inflow, rural and maritime island storage, bore salinity and water-delivery requests weekly","For sugarcane areas, follow the official FMS/SRIF advice: defer new planting in the driest Olosara–Tavua sectors until rain, conserve soil moisture with trash blanketing or mulch, maintain firebreaks and monitor pests","Pre-agree cash and water-support targeting that reaches women, people with disabilities and remote islands","Stress-test energy supply and fuel contingencies while preserving cyclone readiness"],"confidence":"High","confidence_rationale":"High for the national dry signal and for reporting Fiji Met's observed rainfall-status categories; low for the separate quantitative sugar-belt rainfall outlook as explicitly stated by FMS/SRIF; moderate for broader sector impacts","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation."},{"profile_id":"french-polynesia","name":"French Polynesia","iso2":"PF","iso3":"PYF","entity_type":"Overseas Collectivity","administering_state":"France","selection_anchor":{"latitude":-17.535,"longitude":-149.5696},"signal_class":"Mixed","signal_label":"Mixed by archipelago: Marquesas wetter; Austral, Society and much of Tuamotu drier; other areas near normal","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"30 August 2026","spatial_note":"The August–October territorial outlook was broadly dry in the Society, Marquesas and Tuamotu groups, but the later September–November regional outlook shifted the Marquesas to the wet side and the Austral group to the dry side. The valid period and archipelago must accompany every classification. Later-period supplement issued 17 September: for October–December, the Marquesas favour significantly above-normal rainfall, while the Austral Islands, Society Islands and Tuamotu Archipelago favour significantly below-normal rainfall; the latter groups are also among locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions. This forecast is separate from the September–November profile classification. Regional near-term watch issued 1 October, valid 3–16 October: heat and strong marine-heatwave guidance applies to the Marquesas. This is pre-operational SPREP guidance for national meteorological services, not a national warning or observed impact.","outlook":"Mixed by archipelago: Marquesas wetter; Austral, Society and much of Tuamotu drier; other areas near normal","observed_conditions":"Regional monitoring through 17 August highlighted serious or very dry conditions in parts of the Tuamotu Archipelago. No territory-wide impact declaration was identified, so current tank, groundwater and rainfall status should be confirmed archipelago by archipelago.","impacts":["Reduced rainwater and freshwater availability and higher wildfire risk in dry-side archipelagos","Food-garden, livestock and ecosystem stress where dry anomalies persist","Heavy rain, flash flooding, slope instability and water contamination in the wetter Marquesas signal","East-shifted South Pacific cyclone exposure can compound either dry or wet conditions"],"readiness":"Archipelago-scale climate services are available, but no public territory-wide ENSO trigger-action-finance protocol was verified in the reviewed material.","aa_status":"Preparedness; trigger finance not verified","actions":["Publish separate archipelago trigger tables and retain the forecast issue and valid period in each decision","Audit tanks, groundwater, desalination and fire readiness in dry-side islands","In the Marquesas, clear drainage, protect slopes and drinking-water systems, and stage heavy-rain communications","Keep cyclone, marine and inter-island logistics readiness aligned with both tracks"],"confidence":"High","confidence_rationale":"High for the latest archipelago forecast; moderate for observed local impacts","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation."},{"profile_id":"guam","name":"Guam","iso2":"GU","iso3":"GUM","entity_type":"Territory","administering_state":"United States","selection_anchor":{"latitude":13.483333,"longitude":144.75},"signal_class":"Dry","signal_label":"Drier conditions favoured · source values differ; see country evidence","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"17 September 2026","spatial_note":"NOAA's seasonal model also places Guam in an approximately 50% above-normal 2-metre temperature category. The dry signal does not preclude typhoon rain or flash flooding, and the regional ICU indicates a wetter one-month September signal. Later-period supplement issued 17 September: for October–December, significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and Guam is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions. This forecast is separate from the September–November profile classification. Regional near-term watch issued 1 October: rainfall and tropical-cyclone occurrence watches were cancelled for their stated periods. This is pre-operational SPREP guidance for national meteorological services, not a national warning or observed impact.","outlook":"Drier conditions favoured for September–November 2026. For Guam, the earlier portal entry attributed approximately 50% probability of below-normal SON 2026 rainfall to the NOAA August USAPI map; that original issue has not been recovered. The reviewed NOAA global map (IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026) shows an approximately 70% below-normal category in the nearby coarse grid. These are different products, not precise island probabilities or two independently verified conflicting originals. The portal uses the traceable global map for the dry direction and retains the legacy value for comparison.","observed_conditions":"U.S. Drought Monitor valid 6 October 2026, released 8 October: Guam remained dryness and drought-free. The monitored Guam station received 6.23 inches during the week; Dededo received 7.41 inches over seven days. Weekly and monthly minimum water requirements were met. Seasonal outlooks, impacts and recovery cannot be inferred from this weekly monitoring update.","impacts":["Water-demand and vegetation stress may rise if the seasonal dry signal persists","Wildfire and heat risk can increase after vegetation dries","Near-term intense rain can produce drainage, landslide and water-quality problems","Cyclone impacts remain possible despite the seasonal rainfall mean"],"readiness":"Guam has a formal observed-condition trigger/action framework for water shortage. Trigger-linked financing was not verified: the public statute separately authorizes an assistance fund but does not link its release automatically to the drought severity phases.","aa_status":"Trigger/action framework; finance unverified","actions":["Use separate thresholds for near-term heavy rain and the later seasonal dry signal","Inspect water supply, storage, critical pumps and wildfire resources before dry anomalies accumulate","Protect wells and drainage and stage WASH/vector measures during the wetter transition","Publish the trigger, responsible authority and resourcing for each escalation level","Plan water, fuel, medical and purification logistics through the 2027 risk horizon, while updating them with current NOAA/NWS guidance","Refresh relief-cargo invasive-species controls and coordinate inspection at origin and arrival"],"confidence":"High","confidence_rationale":"High for forecast transition and dated drought status; moderate for impact timing","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation."},{"profile_id":"kiribati","name":"Kiribati","iso2":"KI","iso3":"KIR","entity_type":"Sovereign Country","administering_state":"","selection_anchor":{"latitude":1.333333,"longitude":173},"signal_class":"Wet","signal_label":"Wetter across the Gilbert, Phoenix and all Line Islands","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"18 September 2026","spatial_note":"The latest Sep–Nov rainfall signal expands the wet area relative to Aug–Oct. Heavy rain can replenish freshwater lenses but also contaminate wells and overwhelm drainage. A regional ACCESS-S outlook projects sea level more than 10 cm above normal in central and eastern Kiribati for September–November, increasing inundation risk if it coincides with king tides or storms. Later dry-season monitoring must continue as ENSO teleconnections evolve. Later-period supplement issued 17 September: for October–December, significantly above-normal rainfall is favoured across the Gilbert, Phoenix and Line Islands. This forecast is separate from the September–November profile classification. Regional near-term watch issued 1 October, valid 3–16 October: very wet rainfall guidance for most island groups plus subregional heat, marine-heatwave and coral alerts; cancellations are recorded separately. This is pre-operational SPREP guidance for national meteorological services, not a national warning or observed impact.","outlook":"Wetter across the Gilbert, Phoenix and all Line Islands","observed_conditions":"The 27 August Regional Climate Watch identified a near-term very-wet window over much of Kiribati. No country-wide drought classification is supported for Sep–Nov.","impacts":["Drainage flooding, latrine overflow and contamination of shallow groundwater","Potential freshwater-lens recharge if first-flush contamination is managed","Higher diarrhoeal and vector-borne disease risk","Eastward tuna redistribution may create economic opportunities alongside monitoring and access costs","Coastal and wave impacts can compound rainfall flooding"],"readiness":"Early-warning capacity is strengthening, but no current pre-financed heavy-rain/flood anticipatory-action protocol was verified. Emailed drought and insurance claims remain leads.","aa_status":"Preparedness; trigger finance not verified","actions":["Shift the immediate trigger set from generic drought to island-level heavy-rain, drainage, groundwater-quality and disease indicators","Clear drainage and pre-position pumps, chlorination, testing supplies and safe-water communications","Protect wells and latrines, use first-flush procedures and monitor E. coli/salinity before declaring rainwater safe","Prepare inclusive cash/WASH support for densely populated and outer-island households","Coordinate fisheries monitoring, licensing and market plans to capture benefits without overstating uncertain tuna shifts"],"confidence":"High","confidence_rationale":"High for wet signal; moderate for island-level impacts","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation."},{"profile_id":"nauru","name":"Republic of Naoero","short_name":"Naoero","iso2":"NR","iso3":"NRU","entity_type":"Sovereign Country","administering_state":"","selection_anchor":{"latitude":-0.5477,"longitude":166.920867},"signal_class":"Wet","signal_label":"Wetter","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"30 August 2026","spatial_note":"A wetter seasonal signal does not imply continuous rain; short dry spells and water-supply constraints can coexist. Near-term regional guidance also favoured very wet conditions around eastern Nauru. Later-period supplement issued 17 September: for October–December, significantly above-normal rainfall is favoured for Naoero. This forecast is separate from the September–November profile classification. Regional near-term watch issued 1 October, valid 3–16 October: very high chance of Very Wet conditions. This is pre-operational SPREP guidance for national meteorological services, not a national warning or observed impact.","outlook":"Wetter","observed_conditions":"No verified national disaster declaration or drought status was identified at the cutoff. Current decisions should use Nauru Met products and the regional watch.","impacts":["Ponding and drainage overload in low-lying or poorly drained areas","Contamination of stored water and sanitation systems","Increased vector breeding and communicable-disease risk","Opportunity to replenish water storage if systems are clean and functional","Operational pressure on health, waste and public-works services"],"readiness":"Nauru has active trigger-based drought financing, but the reviewed public material does not show a complete national action-by-trigger protocol, payout-use plan or equivalent wet/flood framework.","aa_status":"Trigger-based drought cover","actions":["Issue a joint Nauru Met–public works–health wet-season decision table","Clear drainage and protect power, waste and water infrastructure before intense rainfall","Clean tanks and gutters, communicate first-flush procedures and stage water-quality testing/chlorination","Strengthen vector control and syndromic surveillance","Publish the PCRIC policy trigger, approving authority and intended payout uses, and connect any drought release to an inclusive action plan"],"confidence":"High","confidence_rationale":"High for wet signal; moderate for impacts","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation."},{"profile_id":"new-caledonia","name":"New Caledonia","iso2":"NC","iso3":"NCL","entity_type":"Special Collectivity","administering_state":"France","selection_anchor":{"latitude":-22.2758,"longitude":166.458},"signal_class":"Dry","signal_label":"Drier for September–November","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"30 August 2026","spatial_note":"The direct territorial and regional forecasts are dry and windier. Observed conditions differ by time window, so territory-wide monthly totals should not replace commune and catchment monitoring. Later-period supplement issued 17 September: for October–December, significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and New Caledonia is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions. This forecast is separate from the September–November profile classification.","outlook":"Drier for September–November","observed_conditions":"July was wet at territory scale, with rainfall 81% above normal and mean temperature 0.2°C below normal. The regional 90-day assessment ending 17 August nevertheless identified serious or very dry conditions in parts of New Caledonia. Both statements can be true at different spatial and temporal scales and should be reconciled with current catchment data before declaring impacts.","impacts":["Reduced catchment, farm and household water availability where dry anomalies persist","Pasture, crop and livestock stress and higher fire-weather exposure","Health and livelihood impacts from heat, smoke and water-quality decline","Short intense rain or cyclone impacts remain possible within a dry seasonal mean"],"readiness":"Climate monitoring is operational. No public El Niño drought framework with a forecast trigger, predefined actions, authority and ring-fenced financing was verified in the reviewed material.","aa_status":"Partial instruments; forecast finance unverified","actions":["Use commune and catchment thresholds for rainfall, streamflow, storage, soil moisture and fire danger","Audit water systems, livestock supply, firefighting resources and support to remote communities","Pre-agree crop, livestock, safe-water and accessible social support before losses intensify","Maintain cyclone and intense-rain readiness and review the classification with each forecast issue"],"confidence":"High","confidence_rationale":"High for seasonal direction; moderate for current sub-territorial impacts","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation."},{"profile_id":"new-zealand","name":"New Zealand","iso2":"NZ","iso3":"NZL","entity_type":"Sovereign Country","administering_state":"","selection_anchor":{"latitude":-41.288889,"longitude":174.777222},"signal_class":"Mixed","signal_label":"Mixed: below-normal rainfall favoured in the north and east; very likely above-normal rainfall in the west of the South Island","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"3 September 2026","spatial_note":"The official national outlook assigns a 50% chance of below-normal rainfall to the north and east of the North Island, a 60% chance of above-normal rainfall to the west of the South Island, and near-normal/below-normal splits across several other northern and eastern regions. These are seasonal probabilities, not guaranteed local outcomes; other climate drivers and shorter-term weather will still contribute.","outlook":"Mixed for September–November: below-normal rainfall is most likely in the north and east of the North Island; above-normal rainfall is very likely in the west of the South Island; several other regions are about equally likely to be near or below normal","observed_conditions":"Earth Sciences New Zealand reported on 2 September that El Niño impacts on New Zealand weather had recently started. Below-normal winter rainfall had reduced groundwater recharge in several regions. Through 30 August, the monthly SOI was -1.2 and the 30-day RONI was +1.9°C; marine heatwave conditions continued around much of the South Island and Tasman Sea.","impacts":["North and east soil-moisture, groundwater, pasture, crop and stock-water stress","Wildfire, occasional cold-outbreak and unusually strong-wind damage","Western and lower South Island heavy rain, flooding, slips and infrastructure disruption","Regional contrasts can strain agriculture, fire, transport and lifeline utilities simultaneously"],"readiness":"Forecast-informed preparedness and impact-based support mechanisms exist, but no public pre-agreed ENSO threshold with an automatic ring-fenced financing release was located.","aa_status":"Preparedness; trigger finance not verified","actions":["Intensify soil-moisture, groundwater, feed-budget, irrigation, stock-water and wildfire monitoring in the north and east","Prepare western and lower South Island lifelines for heavy rain, strong winds, slips and access disruption","Review frost, wind and farm business-continuity plans with regional forecasts","Convert NIWA thresholds into a published action and resourcing matrix across MPI, FENZ, councils and lifeline utilities"],"confidence":"High","confidence_rationale":"High source trust for the official national outlook; medium-high analytical confidence in the seasonal direction and medium confidence in local impact timing and anticipatory-action classification","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation."},{"profile_id":"niue","name":"Niue","iso2":"NU","iso3":"NIU","entity_type":"Self-Governing State In Free Association","administering_state":"New Zealand","selection_anchor":{"latitude":-19.05,"longitude":-169.916667},"signal_class":"Dry","signal_label":"Drier, with high very-dry risk","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"30 August 2026","spatial_note":"Niue is on the dry side of the Sep–Nov outlook and on the east-shifted South Pacific cyclone-risk side later in the year. Drought and cyclone readiness must run together. Later-period supplement issued 17 September: for October–December, significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and Niue is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions. This forecast is separate from the September–November profile classification.","outlook":"Drier, with high very-dry risk","observed_conditions":"A national Drought Blue Alert was in effect at the cutoff. Supplied official material reported April–June rainfall of 370 mm versus a 446.5 mm long-term average, with June at 15.9 mm; retain as a dated national observation.","impacts":["Declining household and community tank supply and pressure on groundwater","Reduced food-garden production and higher food costs","Fire danger, smoke and occupational heat exposure","Greater unpaid water and care work","Cyclones or heavy rain can compound drought-weakened services and crops"],"readiness":"Alert and climate-forum coordination exist; pre-agreed scale-up actions, finance and accountable targeting were not verified as a complete drought protocol.","aa_status":"Preparedness; trigger finance not verified","actions":["Translate Blue Alert into published sector actions and escalation thresholds","Audit tanks, gutters, leaks, bore quality, pumps and water-delivery capacity","Stage safe-water supplies, fire-management measures and drought-resilient food-garden support","Prepare cash or voucher assistance for water, food and energy costs with accessible registration","Maintain cyclone shelter, communications and rapid-drainage readiness alongside drought measures"],"confidence":"High","confidence_rationale":"High","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation."},{"profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","name":"Northern Mariana Islands","iso2":"MP","iso3":"MNP","entity_type":"Commonwealth","administering_state":"United States","selection_anchor":{"latitude":15.183333,"longitude":145.75},"signal_class":"Dry","signal_label":"Drier conditions favoured · source values differ; see country evidence","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"17 September 2026","spatial_note":"The seasonal model places southern CNMI in an approximately 50% above-normal 2-metre temperature category. The dry signal does not preclude typhoon rain or flash flooding, and the regional ICU indicates a wetter one-month September signal. Northern islands may differ from the coarse-grid category. Later-period supplement issued 17 September: for October–December, significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and the Northern Mariana Islands are among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions. This forecast is separate from the September–November profile classification. Regional near-term watch issued 1 October: rainfall watch cancelled in south-eastern CNMI; increased tropical-cyclone occurrence risk near northern CNMI for 5–11 October; coral-bleaching alert retained. This is pre-operational SPREP guidance for national meteorological services, not a national warning or observed impact.","outlook":"Drier conditions favoured for September–November 2026. For southern CNMI, the earlier portal entry attributed approximately 50% probability of below-normal SON 2026 rainfall to the NOAA August USAPI map; that original issue has not been recovered. The reviewed NOAA global map (IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026) shows an approximately 60% below-normal category in the nearby coarse grid. These are different products, not precise island probabilities or two independently verified conflicting originals. The portal uses the traceable global map for the dry direction and retains the legacy value for comparison.","observed_conditions":"U.S. Drought Monitor valid 6 October 2026, released 8 October: The Northern Mariana Islands remained dryness and drought-free. Saipan International Airport received 5.87 inches over five days, Rota Airport 5.47 inches and Tinian 4.50 inches over five days. Weekly and monthly minimum water requirements were met. Seasonal outlooks, impacts and recovery cannot be inferred from this weekly monitoring update.","impacts":["Reduced roof-water, groundwater and agricultural water availability if the seasonal dry signal persists","Higher wildfire, heat and food-garden stress after vegetation dries","Near-term heavy rain can damage drainage, slopes and water quality","Cyclone damage and inter-island transport disruption remain credible"],"readiness":"Operational climate and cyclone monitoring exists. No public territory-wide ENSO trigger-action-finance protocol was verified in the reviewed material.","aa_status":"Preparedness; trigger finance not verified","actions":["Set island-specific heavy-rain and dry-season thresholds and review them weekly during the transition","Audit tanks, wells, pumps, treatment supplies, fire resources and inter-island logistics","Clear drainage and protect drinking-water systems during near-term wet conditions","Pre-agree accessible water, food and transport support and identify financing before escalation","Plan water, fuel, medical and purification logistics through the 2027 risk horizon, while updating them with current NOAA/NWS guidance","Refresh relief-cargo invasive-species controls and coordinate inspection at origin and arrival"],"confidence":"High","confidence_rationale":"High for forecast transition and dated drought status; moderate for local impact timing","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation."},{"profile_id":"palau","name":"Palau","iso2":"PW","iso3":"PLW","entity_type":"Sovereign Country In Free Association","administering_state":"United States","selection_anchor":{"latitude":7.483333,"longitude":134.6},"signal_class":"Dry","signal_label":"Drier, with high very-dry risk","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"30 August 2026","spatial_note":"Palau remains firmly on the dry side. The 2026 western North Pacific outlook is normal-to-below normal for Palau cyclone activity, but cyclone risk is not zero. A regional ACCESS-S outlook projects sea level more than 30 cm below normal in parts of Palau for September–November; this is a model forecast, not an observed impact. Later-period supplement issued 17 September: for October–December, significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and Palau is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions. This forecast is separate from the September–November profile classification. Regional near-term watch issued 1 October: the tropical-cyclone occurrence watch for northern Palau was cancelled for 5–11 October. This is pre-operational SPREP guidance for national meteorological services, not a national warning or observed impact.","outlook":"Drier, with high very-dry risk","observed_conditions":"U.S. Drought Monitor valid 6 October 2026, released 8 October: Palau improved from D1-S moderate short-term drought to D0-S short-term abnormal dryness after WSO Palau at Airai received 5.92 inches and Koror received 5.01 inches over six days. The withdrawn August Stage 1 advisory is no longer used to establish an active national water-shortage stage; the current national stage requires a current official source.","impacts":["Reduced streamflow/reservoir supply and possible rationing","Higher fire risk and watershed degradation","Business and tourism disruption from water restrictions","Groundwater salinity and water-quality problems","Lower western-Pacific sea level and ocean changes affecting reefs and fisheries"],"readiness":"Palau has a documented historical response architecture; the current staged plan is not verified from the retained sources; a national anticipatory-action framework is under development, with no active framework/activation listed at the cutoff. SPC also reports an EU-funded, USD 235,000 Koror hydrant upgrade launched in September. Completion and operational effectiveness are not verified.","aa_status":"Preparedness; trigger finance not verified","actions":["Confirm the current official water-shortage stage and publish the escalation decision table and water-demand rules","Inspect reservoir/intake systems, pumps, treatment capacity, groundwater and desalination contingencies","Launch targeted leak reduction and high-use customer conservation before mandatory rationing","Stage fire-control, health and accessible water-delivery support","Update the 2016 plan after-action lessons, including tourism, gender/protection and cash-support arrangements","Monitor tuna catchability and fishing pressure alongside ocean conditions so habitat compression is not mistaken for stock growth"],"confidence":"High","confidence_rationale":"High","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation."},{"profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","name":"Papua New Guinea","iso2":"PG","iso3":"PNG","entity_type":"Sovereign Country","administering_state":"","selection_anchor":{"latitude":-9.478472,"longitude":147.148058},"signal_class":"Dry","signal_label":"Drier, with high very-dry risk","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"17 September 2026","spatial_note":"National risk is highly heterogeneous: lowland/atoll drought, highlands frost and cold nights, urban reservoir stress, fire and market-access constraints can occur simultaneously. Targeting must be district-specific. Later-period supplement issued 17 September: for October–December, significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and Papua New Guinea is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions. This forecast is separate from the September–November profile classification. Regional near-term watch issued 1 October: the earlier extreme-temperature watch for the Highlands was cancelled for 3–16 October. This is pre-operational SPREP guidance for national meteorological services, not a national warning or observed impact.","outlook":"Drier, with high very-dry risk","observed_conditions":"Regional monitoring showed serious to exceptional dryness across parts of PNG. ABC News reporting published 16 September described localized frost and crop loss in Kosipe and Upper Mendi and low water disrupting river trade in Western Province. These are Grade-B, location-specific reports rather than a national impact assessment; the contribution of El Niño to each local impact was not independently established.","impacts":["Crop and food-garden failure, highlands frost damage and livestock stress","Remote-community water shortages and unsafe water use","Hydropower constraints, power outages and higher fuel costs","Nutrition, diarrhoeal, respiratory and maternal-health risks","Price increases and access constraints that disproportionately affect remote and cash-poor households"],"readiness":"On 12 October the Prime Minister directed Provincial and District Administrations to mobilise relief and described district, provincial and national coordination responsibilities. The same official statement said disaster funding was available for transfer and announced a National Security Advisory Council meeting for later that week. The directive and structure are verified; fund transfer, expenditure, relief delivery and the meeting outcome are not verified by this source. Earlier ABC reporting and the August NEC draft remain separately labelled and do not substitute for official delivery records.","aa_status":"Official response directive; funding transfer and implementation unverified","actions":["Combine rainfall/soil-moisture, frost, water, crop and market-access indicators into district risk tiers","Release transparent district allocations against predefined thresholds and publish delivery tracking","Pre-position safe water, clinic supplies, nutrition screening and drought/frost-tolerant seed/planting material in remote priority districts","Protect critical hydropower, communications and logistics while planning fuel contingencies","Use cash where markets function and in-kind/transport support where access is constrained; monitor protection and conflict risks"],"confidence":"High","confidence_rationale":"High for dry signal; high heterogeneity","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation."},{"profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","name":"Pitcairn Islands","iso2":"PN","iso3":"PCN","entity_type":"Overseas Territory","administering_state":"United Kingdom","selection_anchor":{"latitude":-25.066667,"longitude":-130.1},"signal_class":"Monitor","signal_label":"Wetter in September, but near-normal across September–November","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"30 August 2026","spatial_note":"The one-month wet signal does not persist in the full seasonal category. Pitcairn often leans dry in El Niño, so later drought and wildfire readiness should be retained without overriding the current forecast. Later-period supplement issued 17 September: for October–December, significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured for Pitcairn Islands. The bulletin does not list Pitcairn among the locations with its highest chances of very dry conditions. This forecast is separate from the September–November profile classification.","outlook":"Wetter in September, but near-normal across September–November","observed_conditions":"The earlier August outlook described western Pitcairn as serious or very dry over 90 days using data through 11 July. Pitcairn was no longer named in that category in the September outlook assessment ending 17 August. No direct island gauge or tank-status advisory was found, so recovery should not be assumed.","impacts":["Rain can replenish storage but contaminate catchments and cause road or slope erosion","Later dry spells can create rainwater rationing and vegetation-fire risk","Remoteness and irregular shipping can amplify treatment, repair and firefighting shortages","Access and communications can be disrupted after intense rain"],"readiness":"Water-conservation and fire policies exist, but no current public drought/ENSO trigger-action-finance plan was located.","aa_status":"Preparedness; trigger finance not verified","actions":["Use September rain to replenish, inspect and disinfect tanks safely and protect catchments with first-flush controls","Clear drainage and inspect vulnerable roads and slopes","Maintain conservation and open-fire controls despite the one-month wet signal","Link tank-volume and 30/90-day rainfall thresholds to restrictions, resupply requests, authority and contingency finance"],"confidence":"Medium","confidence_rationale":"Medium for seasonal outlook; low for current local conditions and institutional readiness","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation."},{"profile_id":"marshall-islands","name":"Republic of the Marshall Islands","iso2":"MH","iso3":"MHL","entity_type":"Sovereign Country In Free Association","administering_state":"United States","selection_anchor":{"latitude":7.116667,"longitude":171.066667},"signal_class":"Mixed","signal_label":"Mixed: parts wetter while part of central RMI is drier","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"30 August 2026","spatial_note":"The Aug–Oct wet signal becomes spatially mixed in Sep–Nov. El Niño raises western North Pacific cyclone risk for RMI, while northern atoll drought risk can intensify later in the dry season even after a wet interval. A regional ACCESS-S outlook projects sea level more than 30 cm below normal in parts of RMI for September–November; this is not an observation for every atoll. Later-period supplement issued 17 September: for October–December, significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured across most of the Marshall Islands, with much of the country among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions. This forecast is separate from the September–November profile classification. Regional near-term watch issued 1 October: rainfall watch cancelled in the north; increased tropical-cyclone occurrence risk near northern atolls for 5–11 October; coral-bleaching alert retained. This is pre-operational SPREP guidance for national meteorological services, not a national warning or observed impact.","outlook":"Mixed: parts wetter while part of central RMI is drier","observed_conditions":"U.S. Drought Monitor valid 6 October 2026, released 8 October: All monitored Marshall Islands drought designations remained dryness and drought-free. Majuro received 4.66 inches, Mili 2.97 inches over three days and Kwajalein 2.21 inches; Jaluit, Utirik, Wotje and Ailinglaplap were below the weekly minimum rainfall requirement. These station-level results do not mean conditions were identical: not all Marshall Islands atolls had the same rainfall or water status. Seasonal outlooks, impacts and recovery cannot be inferred from this weekly monitoring update.","impacts":["Near-term heavy rain, drainage and water-quality problems on dense atolls","Higher cyclone exposure and transport/logistics disruption","Possible later dry-season water shortage, especially in northern/outer atolls","Groundwater and rainwater contamination or salinity problems","Marine heat, coral and fisheries-distribution changes"],"readiness":"Water-resilience and drought-contingency architecture is developing. PCRIC reported that tailored drought protection was approaching completion and that ADB premium-financing support could help put it in place, but no final or active policy, triggers or payout were verified by the cutoff.","aa_status":"Drought finance policy development; activation not verified","actions":["Issue an atoll-by-atoll wet-now/dry-later decision matrix and correct any blanket national drought label","Use the wet period to safely fill storage after first-flush and water-quality checks","Clear drainage, stage WASH/vector supplies and prepare cyclone logistics for outer atolls","Pre-position pumps, treatment/desalination spares and drinking-water support before the later dry season","Finalize the drought plan with forecast and water-reserve triggers, financing and inclusion safeguards","Monitor tuna catchability and fishing pressure alongside ocean conditions so habitat compression is not mistaken for stock growth"],"confidence":"High","confidence_rationale":"High for mixed seasonal pattern; moderate for later drought timing","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation."},{"profile_id":"samoa","name":"Samoa","iso2":"WS","iso3":"WSM","entity_type":"Sovereign Country","administering_state":"","selection_anchor":{"latitude":-13.583333,"longitude":-171.75},"signal_class":"Dry","signal_label":"Drier, with high very-dry risk","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"30 August 2026","spatial_note":"Dry conditions can intensify into the wet season while the eastward-shifted cyclone corridor increases compound risk. Short intense rain and cyclone flooding remain possible despite a dry seasonal mean. Later-period supplement issued 17 September: for October–December, significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and Samoa is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions. This forecast is separate from the September–November profile classification.","outlook":"Drier, with high very-dry risk","observed_conditions":"A current national observation or alert stage is not established by the retained evidence. The unavailable 9 July bulletin has been withdrawn from active sources. Seasonal dry outlooks are not observed water stress; current supply-zone measurements and official alert status need confirmation from Samoa Met and water authorities.","impacts":["Reduced spring/catchment and household-tank supply","Food-garden, pasture and livestock losses","Hydropower constraints and higher energy costs","Heat, smoke, diarrhoeal and nutrition risks","Cyclone or flash-flood impacts on drought-weakened crops and services"],"readiness":"Drought system strengthening is planned; no current pre-financed drought protocol was verified.","aa_status":"Preparedness; trigger finance not verified","actions":["Publish water-supply-zone thresholds and actions, including equitable rationing and priority service rules","Audit springs, intakes, treatment, leakage, tanks and non-revenue water","Provide early crop, livestock, water and fire support before wet-season cyclone operations compete for capacity","Pre-agree inclusive cash/WASH assistance and GBV referral continuity","Maintain cyclone, drainage and shelter readiness and use forecasts to sequence supplies"],"confidence":"High","confidence_rationale":"High for dry signal; moderate for current impacts","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation."},{"profile_id":"solomon-islands","name":"Solomon Islands","iso2":"SB","iso3":"SLB","entity_type":"Sovereign Country","administering_state":"","selection_anchor":{"latitude":-9.431944,"longitude":159.955556},"signal_class":"Dry","signal_label":"Drier, with high very-dry risk","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"30 August 2026","spatial_note":"Dryness is already evident in parts of the country. National-level summaries can hide urban utility, provincial, outer-island and fisheries differences. Later-period supplement issued 17 September: for October–December, significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and Solomon Islands is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions. This forecast is separate from the September–November profile classification.","outlook":"Drier, with high very-dry risk","observed_conditions":"Regional monitoring showed serious to exceptional dryness in parts of Solomon Islands. Supplied material reports water-rationing warnings and fishers travelling farther for tuna; verify locations and current status with utilities and fisheries agencies.","impacts":["Reduced urban and rural water availability and possible rationing","Food-garden, cash-crop and livestock stress","Longer/safer fishing trips and higher fuel costs if tuna shifts east","Fire, smoke and water-quality health impacts","Higher household costs and protection burdens"],"readiness":"Preparedness/response leads exist, but Anticipation Hub listed zero active frameworks and activations at the cutoff; public drought trigger/action/finance documentation remains a gap.","aa_status":"Preparedness; trigger finance not verified","actions":["Activate a province/utility risk tier using rainfall, source yield, storage, food-garden and market indicators","Protect Honiara and provincial/outer-island water systems, stage pumps/tanks/treatment and communicate equitable rationing","Provide early seed/planting material, water and livelihood support and monitor tuna/fuel costs","Pre-position clinic, nutrition, WASH and fire-response supplies","Document trigger decisions, financing and delivery coverage so the current activation becomes a reusable protocol"],"confidence":"High","confidence_rationale":"High for dry signal; moderate for specific reported impacts","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation."},{"profile_id":"tokelau","name":"Tokelau","iso2":"TK","iso3":"TKL","entity_type":"Non-Self-Governing Territory","administering_state":"New Zealand","selection_anchor":{"latitude":-8.551667,"longitude":-172.500833},"signal_class":"Wet","signal_label":"Wetter for September and September–November","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"30 August 2026","spatial_note":"The current wet forecast differs from the usual tendency toward drier conditions in southern Tokelau during El Niño. The time-bound outlook should take precedence while drought readiness is retained. Later-period supplement issued 17 September: for October–December, significantly above-normal rainfall is favoured for Tokelau. This forecast is separate from the September–November profile classification. Regional near-term watch issued 1 October, valid 3–16 October: very wet guidance for northern Tokelau and a strong marine-heatwave forecast for eastern Tokelau. This is pre-operational SPREP guidance for national meteorological services, not a national warning or observed impact.","outlook":"Wetter for September and September–November","observed_conditions":"Tokelau was not named among serious or very dry areas in the regional 30- and 90-day assessment ending 17 August. This means the bulletin did not highlight it, not that normal conditions were confirmed at every atoll; no public atoll gauge or tank-status assessment was located.","impacts":["First-flush contamination, overflowing tanks and reduced drinking-water quality","Localized drainage flooding, garden damage and vector breeding","Coastal and cyclone hazards can disrupt inter-atoll logistics","A later forecast shift could renew drought-related water stress"],"readiness":"Early-warning and resilience systems are developing. No public forecast trigger linked to predefined actions, authority and ring-fenced finance was located.","aa_status":"Preparedness; trigger finance not verified","actions":["Clean roof catchments, gutters, tanks and drainage and apply safe first-flush procedures before heavier rain","Intensify vector control and monitor extreme-rain, cyclone and coastal alerts at each atoll","Keep a drinking-water conservation buffer and review the outlook monthly","Develop atoll thresholds using tank levels and 30/90-day rainfall, with named actions and funds"],"confidence":"Medium","confidence_rationale":"Medium for the outlook; medium-low for observed local status and institutional classification","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation."},{"profile_id":"tonga","name":"Tonga","iso2":"TO","iso3":"TON","entity_type":"Sovereign Country","administering_state":"","selection_anchor":{"latitude":-21.133333,"longitude":-175.2},"signal_class":"Dry","signal_label":"Drier, with high very-dry risk","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"30 August 2026","spatial_note":"Tonga lies on the dry side and within the east-shifted South Pacific cyclone-risk zone. Island groups can reach water thresholds at different times. Later-period supplement issued 17 September: for October–December, significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and Tonga is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions. This forecast is separate from the September–November profile classification.","outlook":"Drier, with high very-dry risk","observed_conditions":"Regional monitoring showed water stress in Tonga. Supplied material reports a Drought Warning for Ha'apai and desalination deployments; confirm current national advisory and unit locations.","impacts":["Declining household tanks and thin freshwater lenses, especially in Ha'apai and outer islands","Food-garden, root-crop, livestock and pasture stress","Greater desalination, fuel, shipping and maintenance requirements","Fire, heat and WASH/health impacts","Cyclone or heavy-rain impacts can arrive before drought recovery"],"readiness":"Tonga has the clearest operational drought anticipatory financing in the 24-jurisdiction review. PCRIC reported a fifth 2026 payout, triggered by insufficient August rainfall and intended to support early action in ‘Eua; the amount and use/outcomes were not reported. Policy renewal for the year beginning 1 November was reported in progress. The remaining task is public accounting against a complete island-group action, targeting and outcome protocol.","aa_status":"Operational drought cover","actions":["Finalize and publish the ENSO Directive with island-group triggers, roles, financing and review dates","Publicly acquit PCRIC payouts against pre-agreed water, WASH, agriculture, fire and early-response uses and report coverage/outcomes","Audit tanks, wells, salinity, desalination units, fuel, membranes/spares and shipping schedules","Provide early water, crop, livestock and fire support in Ha'apai and other threshold areas","Keep cyclone shelter, drainage, communications and emergency-water plans ready"],"confidence":"High","confidence_rationale":"High for dry signal; moderate for current measures","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation."},{"profile_id":"tuvalu","name":"Tuvalu","iso2":"TV","iso3":"TUV","entity_type":"Sovereign Country","administering_state":"","selection_anchor":{"latitude":-8.516667,"longitude":179.2},"signal_class":"Mixed","signal_label":"Mixed: northern Tuvalu wetter; southern Tuvalu drier, with high very-dry risk","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"14 September 2026","spatial_note":"A national average is misleading. The north may face heavy-rain/WASH risks while the south faces drought. Cyclone and coastal hazards can compound both sides. Later-period supplement issued 17 September: for October–December, northern Tuvalu favours significantly above-normal rainfall, while southern Tuvalu favours significantly below-normal rainfall and is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions. This forecast is separate from the September–November profile classification. Regional near-term watch issued 1 October, valid 3–16 October: very wet guidance for northern Tuvalu; the earlier north-eastern marine-heatwave watch was cancelled. This is pre-operational SPREP guidance for national meteorological services, not a national warning or observed impact.","outlook":"Mixed: northern Tuvalu wetter; southern Tuvalu drier, with high very-dry risk","observed_conditions":"Regional monitoring showed serious to exceptional dryness in southern Tuvalu, while the 27 August watch favoured very wet conditions in northern Tuvalu.","impacts":["Declining storage and rising desalination/fuel needs in southern islands","Ponding, sanitation overflow and contaminated wells/tanks in northern islands","Outer-island shipping and water-delivery constraints","Pulaka/food-garden and nutrition impacts","Cyclone, wave and king-tide impacts compounding water insecurity"],"readiness":"Tuvalu has drought-trigger/readiness building blocks, but Anticipation Hub listed zero active frameworks/activations and DREW financing remains prospective; no equivalent wet/flood protocol was verified. SPC reported four communal water cisterns serving the Nui, Nukufetau, Fakaifou and Vaiaku communities on Funafuti as complete and awaiting commissioning, with community maintenance training incorporated into delivery. This is verified implementation status, not yet a verified operational-performance outcome.","aa_status":"Preparedness; trigger finance not verified","actions":["Run separate northern and southern island trigger tables and publish an island-level water dashboard","In the south, stage desalination fuel/spares, equitable water delivery and storage repair before reserves cross emergency thresholds","In the north, clean drainage, protect sanitation and wells, and use safe first-flush water harvesting","Confirm the IFRC trigger, approving authority, financing and predefined assistance package","Integrate cyclone/coastal warnings, accessible communications and protection-sensitive targeting"],"confidence":"High","confidence_rationale":"High","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation. Confirm commissioning dates, usable storage capacity, fill levels, water-quality controls, equitable-access arrangements and performance during dry conditions."},{"profile_id":"vanuatu","name":"Vanuatu","iso2":"VU","iso3":"VUT","entity_type":"Sovereign Country","administering_state":"","selection_anchor":{"latitude":-17.733333,"longitude":168.316667},"signal_class":"Dry","signal_label":"Drier, with high very-dry risk","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"17 September 2026","spatial_note":"Northern Vanuatu entered the season with more severe dryness. The country must maintain cyclone readiness even if the seasonal rainfall mean is low. Later-period supplement issued 17 September: for October–December, significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and Vanuatu is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions. This forecast is separate from the September–November profile classification.","outlook":"Drier, with high very-dry risk","observed_conditions":"Regional monitoring showed serious to exceptional dryness in northern Vanuatu. ABC News reporting published 16 September cited localized vendor and community reports of crop stress, household water pressure, some girls missing school to help collect water or provide care, and reported skin conditions as water quality worsened. These are Grade-B local reports, not national prevalence estimates or clinical findings.","impacts":["Reduced tank, spring and stream supply in northern and other dry islands","Food-garden, cash-crop and livestock losses","Fire and smoke, heat and water-quality health risks","Inter-island water and supply logistics pressure","Cyclone or flash-flood impacts before drought recovery"],"readiness":"Vanuatu has cyclone anticipatory-action experience and current drought-system development, but no verified drought-specific pre-financed protocol. ABC News reported weekly government coordination with water and tourism sectors and a women-led ActionAid network carrying official information to isolated communities; reach, effectiveness and funding were not evaluated.","aa_status":"Preparedness; trigger finance not verified","actions":["Create province/island drought tiers using VMGD rainfall, source yield, storage, crop and water-request indicators","Audit tanks, springs, bore quality, pumps and inter-island delivery; stage supplies first in the north","Provide early planting material, livestock water/feed, fire and health/WASH support","Adapt cyclone anticipatory-action governance and finance lessons to a drought protocol without assuming the same triggers/actions","Use inclusive cash and accessible communications with women-led and disability organizations in design and monitoring"],"confidence":"High","confidence_rationale":"High","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation."},{"profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","name":"Wallis and Futuna","iso2":"WF","iso3":"WLF","entity_type":"Overseas Collectivity","administering_state":"France","selection_anchor":{"latitude":-13.283333,"longitude":-176.183333},"signal_class":"Dry","signal_label":"Drier for September–November","valid_period":"September–November 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","assessment_date":"30 August 2026","spatial_note":"The latest seasonal forecast is dry, cooler and windier. Long-term ENSO composites place the islands near a rainfall-anomaly boundary, so the current forecast should take precedence over a fixed El Niño label. Later-period supplement issued 17 September: for October–December, significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and Wallis and Futuna is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions. This forecast is separate from the September–November profile classification.","outlook":"Drier for September–November","observed_conditions":"Météo-France reported a drier and cooler July in both Wallis and Futuna. Regional monitoring through 17 August also included the territory among areas with serious or very dry 90-day conditions. Public tank and groundwater status was not located and requires local confirmation.","impacts":["Reduced household, community and agricultural water availability","Food-garden, pasture and livestock stress and higher wildfire exposure","Higher water, food and transport costs for remote households","Cyclones or short intense rain can contaminate water and damage drought-stressed crops and services"],"readiness":"Operational monitoring exists, but no public ENSO drought trigger-action-finance protocol was verified in the reviewed material.","aa_status":"Preparedness; trigger finance not verified","actions":["Confirm island-level rainfall, tank, groundwater and demand status and publish escalation thresholds","Inspect tanks, pumps, treatment and inter-island resupply logistics before storage declines further","Stage drought-resilient garden, livestock, fire and public-health measures","Maintain cyclone and intense-rain readiness and update decisions when the forecast changes"],"confidence":"High","confidence_rationale":"High for current seasonal direction; moderate-low for current island-level impacts","evidence_gaps":"Confirm current local impacts, action thresholds, responsible authority and committed financing with the jurisdiction before activation."}],"evidence":[{"evidence_id":"E0001","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"","source_title":"NOAA NMME seasonal precipitation probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pacdir/NMME1dir/prob_ensemble_prate_usapi_season1.png","page_or_section":"August 2026 initialization, lead 1: September–November precipitation-probability map","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending original regional issue; alternative context only","source_scope_note":"The exact August 2026 USAPI graphic is still missing. Official archive regional files displaying June 2021 initialization were rejected. A separately labelled global graphic of the same initialization corroborates the broad category; original-image recovery remains outstanding."},{"evidence_id":"E0002","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"American Samoa retained short-term moderate drought in the 27 August 2026 release (25 August data cutoff).","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor – U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publisher":"NDMC / NOAA / USDA / NASA","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260825.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section, american-samoa paragraph; release 27 August 2026, valid 25 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact archived jurisdiction paragraph is legible and agrees with the primary archived text. The current profile has later observations which this August citation cannot verify. direct_historical_monitoring_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0003","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"The U.S. Drought Monitor valid 25 August 2026 classified Tutuila as D1-S (short-term moderate drought).","source_title":"U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands drought map, valid 25 August 2026","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center / NOAA / USDA / NASA","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pdf/20260825/20260825_usdm_pg2.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 1: dated island symbols with drought and duration legends","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The dated map and its legend were visually checked; the live profile now concerns a later monitoring week. 25 August 2026 island-level drought classification only."},{"evidence_id":"E0004","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"NOAA NMME seasonal precipitation probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pacdir/NMME1dir/prob_ensemble_prate_usapi_season1.png","page_or_section":"Coarse-grid September–November precipitation-probability map","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending original regional issue; alternative context only","source_scope_note":"The exact August 2026 USAPI graphic is still missing. Official archive regional files displaying June 2021 initialization were rejected. A separately labelled global graphic of the same initialization corroborates the broad category; original-image recovery remains outstanding."},{"evidence_id":"E0005","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"NOAA NMME seasonal 2-metre temperature probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pacdir/NMME1dir/prob_ensemble_tmp2m_usapi_season1.png","page_or_section":"Coarse-grid September–November 2-metre temperature-probability map","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending original regional issue; alternative context only","source_scope_note":"The exact August 2026 USAPI graphic is still missing. Official archive regional files displaying June 2021 initialization were rejected. A separately labelled global graphic of the same initialization corroborates the broad category; original-image recovery remains outstanding."},{"evidence_id":"E0006","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and its impacts on American Samoa","publisher":"NOAA / National Integrated Drought Information System / Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Pacific-Region-EL-NINO-Fact-Sheet_ASamoa_2015-FINAL-v2.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 2: rainfall and tropical-cyclone climatology","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The spatial note contains newer outlooks; this undated impact sheet supplies only climatological context. Variable El Niño rainfall and cyclone risk; no 2026 forecast probability."},{"evidence_id":"E0007","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: regional drought/rainfall and cyclone-genesis context","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article supplies regional hazard context, not evidence of the specific water, crop, health, energy, fisheries, cost or infrastructure effects listed for American Samoa. analytical_risk_context_only; no_local_observed_impact_verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0008","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño Impact on Tropical Cyclones in the Pacific","publisher":"SPREP","publication_date":"2026-08-25","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/content/el-nino-impact-tropical-cyclones-pacific","page_or_section":"Catalog metadata and Abstract; record created/modified 25 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only"},{"evidence_id":"E0009","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and health in the Pacific","publisher":"World Health Organization Western Pacific","publication_date":"2015-07-16","exact_url":"https://www.who.int/westernpacific/about/how-we-work/pacific-support/news/detail/16-07-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-health-in-the-pacific","page_or_section":"Historical pathway evidence; use for preparedness design, not as evidence of current 2026 impacts.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0010","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and its impacts on American Samoa","publisher":"NOAA / National Integrated Drought Information System / Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Pacific-Region-EL-NINO-Fact-Sheet_ASamoa_2015-FINAL-v2.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 2: What does El Niño mean to you?","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The impacts list is prospective; source guidance supports water, agriculture, wildfire and health risk context. Potential impacts, not measured local impacts."},{"evidence_id":"E0011","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño Impact on Tropical Cyclones in the Pacific","publisher":"SPREP","publication_date":"2026-08-25","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/content/el-nino-impact-tropical-cyclones-pacific","page_or_section":"Catalog metadata and Abstract; record created/modified 25 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only"},{"evidence_id":"E0012","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"The NOAA impact sheet gives general preparedness advice for water, disaster, public-health, coastal and agriculture managers. It does not document current implementation, approval or financing in American Samoa.","source_title":"El Niño and its impacts on American Samoa","publisher":"NOAA / National Integrated Drought Information System / Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Pacific-Region-EL-NINO-Fact-Sheet_ASamoa_2015-FINAL-v2.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 2: What does El Niño mean to you?","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to general preparedness guidance","evidence_kind":"preparedness_guidance","source_scope_note":"The former mapping to existing measures is withdrawn. Page 2 gives prospective advice for water, disaster, health, coastal and agriculture managers; it does not document implemented or financed actions."},{"evidence_id":"E0013","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"ODAPM identifies a governor-appointed Territorial Hazard Mitigation Council and reports that FEMA Region IX approved the American Samoa Hazard Mitigation Plan in June 2025.","source_title":"American Samoa Hazard Mitigation","publisher":"American Samoa Office of Disaster Assistance and Preparedness Management","publication_date":"2025-06","exact_url":"https://odapm.as.gov/hazardmitigation","page_or_section":"Territorial Hazard Mitigation Council paragraphs; American Samoa Hazard Mitigation Plan Update paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Visible text describes council governance and reports FEMA Region IX approval in June 2025. The actual plan and its attachments are not available in this capture; their operational contents cannot be inferred. All-hazards governance and reported plan approval only; no verified drought trigger, action package or ring-fenced finance."},{"evidence_id":"E0014","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"The ASPA-branded poster recommends leak repair, shorter showers, rainwater harvesting, efficient irrigation, drought-resistant planting and community water-conservation action. These are recommendations to customers, not proof of implementation or a funded anticipatory-action protocol.","source_title":"El Niño water-conservation notice","publisher":"American Samoa Power Authority","publication_date":"2026","exact_url":"https://www.facebook.com/ASPowerAuthority/posts/elnino-waterconservationwith-the-impending-el-ni%C3%B1o-season-forecast-to-be-among-t/1490667859769155/","page_or_section":"Original post public metadata; ASPA poster recommendation paragraph and strategy boxes","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"C","verification_status":"Source post metadata and image reviewed; publication timestamp unavailable","evidence_kind":"preparedness_guidance","source_scope_note":"The original Facebook post OpenGraph metadata identifies ASPA and links to this image. Both supplied image URLs contain identical bytes. This is one shared underlying resource, not independent scientific corroboration. No publication timestamp was recovered. The poster communicates risk and recommends conservation; it does not establish implementation, activation, approval, committed finance or effectiveness.","shared_source_group":"aspa-water-conservation-poster-7bdba88e3d2b"},{"evidence_id":"E0015","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"The American Samoa DHS post communicates heightened drought risk for late 2026–early 2027 and links to the same ASPA water-conservation poster. This documents risk communication, not an independent forecast, implemented measures or committed financing.","source_title":"American Samoa El Niño drought-risk communication","publisher":"American Samoa Department of Homeland Security","publication_date":"2026","exact_url":"https://www.facebook.com/AmericanSamoaDHS/posts/american-samoa-faces-heightened-drought-risk-with-below-average-rainfall-expecte/1481316617355918/","page_or_section":"Original post public metadata; ASPA poster recommendation paragraph and strategy boxes","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"C","verification_status":"Source post metadata and image reviewed; publication timestamp unavailable","source_scope_note":"The original Facebook post OpenGraph metadata identifies DHS and links to the ASPA-branded image. Both supplied image URLs contain identical bytes. This is one shared underlying resource, not independent scientific corroboration. No publication timestamp was recovered. The poster communicates risk and recommends conservation; it does not establish implementation, activation, approval, committed finance or effectiveness.","evidence_kind":"preparedness_guidance","shared_source_group":"aspa-water-conservation-poster-7bdba88e3d2b"},{"evidence_id":"E0016","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"ODAPM identifies a governor-appointed Territorial Hazard Mitigation Council and reports that FEMA Region IX approved the American Samoa Hazard Mitigation Plan in June 2025.","source_title":"American Samoa Hazard Mitigation","publisher":"American Samoa Office of Disaster Assistance and Preparedness Management","publication_date":"2025-06","exact_url":"https://odapm.as.gov/hazardmitigation","page_or_section":"Territorial Hazard Mitigation Council paragraphs; American Samoa Hazard Mitigation Plan Update paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Visible text describes council governance and reports FEMA Region IX approval in June 2025. The actual plan and its attachments are not available in this capture; their operational contents cannot be inferred. All-hazards governance and reported plan approval only; no verified drought trigger, action package or ring-fenced finance."},{"evidence_id":"E0017","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"source_metadata","claim_text":"The ASPA-branded poster recommends leak repair, shorter showers, rainwater harvesting, efficient irrigation, drought-resistant planting and community water-conservation action. These are recommendations to customers, not proof of implementation or a funded anticipatory-action protocol.","source_title":"El Niño water-conservation notice","publisher":"American Samoa Power Authority","publication_date":"2026","exact_url":"https://www.facebook.com/ASPowerAuthority/posts/elnino-waterconservationwith-the-impending-el-ni%C3%B1o-season-forecast-to-be-among-t/1490667859769155/","page_or_section":"Original post public metadata; ASPA poster recommendation paragraph and strategy boxes","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"C","verification_status":"Source post metadata and image reviewed; publication timestamp unavailable","evidence_kind":"preparedness_guidance","source_scope_note":"The original Facebook post OpenGraph metadata identifies ASPA and links to this image. Both supplied image URLs contain identical bytes. This is one shared underlying resource, not independent scientific corroboration. No publication timestamp was recovered. The poster communicates risk and recommends conservation; it does not establish implementation, activation, approval, committed finance or effectiveness.","shared_source_group":"aspa-water-conservation-poster-7bdba88e3d2b"},{"evidence_id":"E0018","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"source_metadata","claim_text":"The American Samoa DHS post communicates heightened drought risk for late 2026–early 2027 and links to the same ASPA water-conservation poster. This documents risk communication, not an independent forecast, implemented measures or committed financing.","source_title":"American Samoa El Niño drought-risk communication","publisher":"American Samoa Department of Homeland Security","publication_date":"2026","exact_url":"https://www.facebook.com/AmericanSamoaDHS/posts/american-samoa-faces-heightened-drought-risk-with-below-average-rainfall-expecte/1481316617355918/","page_or_section":"Original post public metadata; ASPA poster recommendation paragraph and strategy boxes","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"C","verification_status":"Source post metadata and image reviewed; publication timestamp unavailable","source_scope_note":"The original Facebook post OpenGraph metadata identifies DHS and links to the ASPA-branded image. Both supplied image URLs contain identical bytes. This is one shared underlying resource, not independent scientific corroboration. No publication timestamp was recovered. The poster communicates risk and recommends conservation; it does not establish implementation, activation, approval, committed finance or effectiveness.","evidence_kind":"preparedness_guidance","shared_source_group":"aspa-water-conservation-poster-7bdba88e3d2b"},{"evidence_id":"E0019","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"FAO anticipatory action guidance for El Niño","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://openknowledge.fao.org/bitstreams/a551eb91-d98b-4a4a-931a-49e9533d288e/download","page_or_section":"PDF page 15 (printed page 13): Asia and Pacific drought and flood/cyclone priority actions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Profile actions are portal recommendations. General agricultural preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0020","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and its impacts on American Samoa","publisher":"NOAA / National Integrated Drought Information System / Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Pacific-Region-EL-NINO-Fact-Sheet_ASamoa_2015-FINAL-v2.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 2: What does El Niño mean to you?","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The source supplies sectoral preparedness guidance; the profile action package is portal analysis. General preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0021","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"Portal recommendation informed by Territorial Hazard Mitigation Council paragraphs; American Samoa Hazard Mitigation Plan Update paragraph.","source_title":"American Samoa Hazard Mitigation","publisher":"American Samoa Office of Disaster Assistance and Preparedness Management","publication_date":"2025-06","exact_url":"https://odapm.as.gov/hazardmitigation","page_or_section":"Territorial Hazard Mitigation Council paragraphs; American Samoa Hazard Mitigation Plan Update paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The cited passage informs the portal recommendation; it does not establish that the proposed action, threshold or financing arrangement has been adopted. Analytical preparedness guidance, not evidence of completed measures or an adopted trigger."},{"evidence_id":"E0022","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño Impact on Tropical Cyclones in the Pacific","publisher":"SPREP","publication_date":"2026-08-25","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/content/el-nino-impact-tropical-cyclones-pacific","page_or_section":"Catalog metadata and Abstract; record created/modified 25 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only"},{"evidence_id":"E0023","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor – U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publisher":"NDMC / NOAA / USDA / NASA","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260825.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section, american-samoa paragraph; release 27 August 2026, valid 25 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The archived drought class can inform an analyst recommendation, but this paragraph specifies no agreed local escalation threshold, action authority or financing release. portal_monitoring_recommendation_informed_by_historical_observations"},{"evidence_id":"E0024","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"NOAA NMME seasonal precipitation probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pacdir/NMME1dir/prob_ensemble_prate_usapi_season1.png","page_or_section":"Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending original regional issue; alternative context only","source_scope_note":"The exact August 2026 USAPI graphic is still missing. Official archive regional files displaying June 2021 initialization were rejected. A separately labelled global graphic of the same initialization corroborates the broad category; original-image recovery remains outstanding."},{"evidence_id":"E0025","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"BoM’s 6 August outlook favoured below-average September–November rainfall in the far southwest, southeast including Tasmania, and parts of eastern/northern Queensland, with above-average rainfall favoured across most of Western Australia, the Northern Territory, western South Australia and Queensland’s Gulf Country.","source_title":"Long-range forecast issued 6 August 2026","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","publication_date":"2026-08-06","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/archive/20260806-outlook.shtml","page_or_section":"Rainfall—Summary, September to November, issued 6 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The archived issue explicitly gives 60–80% below-average chances in identified southern/eastern areas and 60% to greater than 80% above-average chances across much of the west and Northern Territory. This historical issue must not be used for stronger percentages from a later update. Dated September–November 2026 regional rainfall forecast; not observed impacts."},{"evidence_id":"E0026","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"The captured 2026–2027 northern rainfall-onset outlook favours a later onset in eastern and far-northern Australia and an earlier onset across much of the west.","source_title":"Northern rainfall onset outlook","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall-onset/","page_or_section":"Northern Rainfall Onset for the 2026–2027 season, outlook summary and explanatory paragraphs","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The saved page favours later onset in eastern/far-northern areas and earlier onset elsewhere. The open navigation obscures left-hand text and the exact issue date, so only unobscured direction and seasonal context are retained. Probabilistic wet-season onset timing; not total seasonal rainfall or realised crop, livestock or water impacts."},{"evidence_id":"E0027","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"The 27 August 2026 BoM outlook gives a mixed September–November rainfall forecast: lower rainfall favoured in far south-west Western Australia, the south-east including Tasmania and parts of eastern/northern Queensland, with higher rainfall favoured across most of Western Australia into the Northern Territory and western South Australia and Queensland.","source_title":"Long-range forecasts","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","page_or_section":"Rainfall — Summary, September–November, bullets 1–2","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact dated primary HTML archive checked. The short anchor identifies the relevant section; read the original archive for full geography, probabilities and qualifications. source_specific_fact"},{"evidence_id":"E0028","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"The Bureau’s 7 August 2026 statement reports July rainfall deficiencies and below-average soil moisture and streamflow in specified regions; it is a dated monitoring baseline, not a current local impact assessment.","source_title":"Drought statement","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/","page_or_section":"Archived statement issued 7 August 2026, Summary bullets on rainfall, soil moisture, streamflow and storage; saved capture lines 165–174","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Recovered the official August-issued archive. Header explicitly says issued 7 August 2026 and describes conditions at the end of July, matching the original month-level citation. The rolling URL now contains October content, which was not substituted. Archived statement issued 7 August 2026, Summary bullets on rainfall, soil moisture, streamflow and storage; saved capture lines 165–174"},{"evidence_id":"E0029","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"BoM’s 6 August outlook favoured below-average September–November rainfall in the far southwest, southeast including Tasmania, and parts of eastern/northern Queensland, with above-average rainfall favoured across most of Western Australia, the Northern Territory, western South Australia and Queensland’s Gulf Country.","source_title":"Long-range forecast issued 6 August 2026","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","publication_date":"2026-08-06","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/archive/20260806-outlook.shtml","page_or_section":"Rainfall—Summary, September to November, issued 6 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The archived issue explicitly gives 60–80% below-average chances in identified southern/eastern areas and 60% to greater than 80% above-average chances across much of the west and Northern Territory. This historical issue must not be used for stronger percentages from a later update. Dated September–November 2026 regional rainfall forecast; not observed impacts."},{"evidence_id":"E0030","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"El Niño generally reduces winter–spring rainfall in eastern and northern Australia, but widespread drought does not accompany every event and event strength does not determine local rainfall impacts.","source_title":"El Niño and Australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a008-el-nino-and-australia.shtml","page_or_section":"Potential effects of El Niño > Reduced rainfall, third paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Undated reference points to stable climatological guidance (page issued June 2014, updated March 2021), not a 2026 observation or deterministic forecast. Potential effects of El Niño > Reduced rainfall, third paragraph"},{"evidence_id":"E0031","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"In the 27 August 2026 BoM outlook the dry signal is strongest in September, before wetter conditions emerge from October; southern Victoria and Tasmania remain on the drier side throughout the season. This is an archived outlook, not a current observation.","source_title":"Long-range forecasts","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","page_or_section":"Rainfall — Summary, September–November, seasonal transition bullet","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact dated primary HTML archive checked. The short anchor identifies the relevant section; read the original archive for full geography, probabilities and qualifications. source_specific_fact"},{"evidence_id":"E0032","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"The northern rainfall-onset forecast provides planning context for the timing of first significant wet-season rains; it does not document realised impacts.","source_title":"Northern rainfall onset outlook","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall-onset/","page_or_section":"Northern Rainfall Onset for the 2026–2027 season, outlook summary and explanatory paragraphs","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The saved page favours later onset in eastern/far-northern areas and earlier onset elsewhere. The open navigation obscures left-hand text and the exact issue date, so only unobscured direction and seasonal context are retained. Timing-risk context only; impacts remain analytical."},{"evidence_id":"E0033","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"El Niño generally reduces winter–spring rainfall in eastern and northern Australia, but widespread drought does not accompany every event and event strength does not determine local rainfall impacts.","source_title":"El Niño and Australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a008-el-nino-and-australia.shtml","page_or_section":"Potential effects of El Niño > Reduced rainfall, third paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Undated reference points to stable climatological guidance (page issued June 2014, updated March 2021), not a 2026 observation or deterministic forecast. Potential effects of El Niño > Reduced rainfall, third paragraph"},{"evidence_id":"E0034","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"El Niño event strength does not reliably indicate the strength of Australian impacts; a weaker event can have major effects and other climate drivers also matter.","source_title":"El Niño: what it means for Australia's climate","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","publication_date":"2026","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/news-and-media/el-nino-what-it-means-for-australias-climate","page_or_section":"How strong is this El Niño?, final paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The original reference is year-only 2026. The retrieved article is issued 16 June 2026 and updated 17 September 2026. Only the climatological qualification is verified, not a frozen June forecast. How strong is this El Niño?, final paragraph"},{"evidence_id":"E0035","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"Australia’s 2024–2029 National Drought Agreement assigns drought preparedness, response and recovery responsibilities and provides for the Future Drought Fund.","source_title":"National Drought Agreement 2024–2029","publisher":"Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry","publication_date":"2024","exact_url":"https://www.agriculture.gov.au/agriculture-land/farm-food-drought/drought/drought-policy/national-drought-agreement","page_or_section":"DAFF National Drought Agreement; introduction bullet 1 and online agreement Responsibilities of the Commonwealth (web lines 15 and 116–123)","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact primary page and online agreement recovered; direct request timed out but web returned original text. Existing national drought preparedness policy and listed responsibilities."},{"evidence_id":"E0036","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"The Future Drought Fund supports farmers and communities with drought and climate preparedness, planning, practices, local networks and projects. This page does not establish automatic release of finance at a forecast threshold.","source_title":"Future Drought Fund","publisher":"Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.agriculture.gov.au/agriculture-land/farm-food-drought/drought/future-drought-fund","page_or_section":"Introduction, second paragraph; Our focus","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Official programme description recovered. Programme existence and resilience purpose are verified; absence of a complete trigger-finance facility is not proven by this page. Introduction, second paragraph; Our focus"},{"evidence_id":"E0037","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"The Future Drought Fund’s Regional Drought Resilience Planning programme supports community-led regional plans, expert feedback and grants to begin plan actions. It is a planning mechanism, not evidence of automatic forecast-triggered funding.","source_title":"Regional Drought Resilience Planning","publisher":"Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.agriculture.gov.au/agriculture-land/farm-food-drought/drought/future-drought-fund/regional-drought-resilience-planning","page_or_section":"Introduction > The plans, bullet 2; program support bullets and Delivery","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Official programme body recovered. References are undated; current programme details should not be retroactively assigned to a specific past issue. Introduction > The plans, bullet 2; program support bullets and Delivery"},{"evidence_id":"E0038","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"Preparedness framework verified; an automatic ENSO forecast-triggered financing protocol was not established by this source.","source_title":"National Drought Agreement 2024–2029","publisher":"Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry","publication_date":"2024","exact_url":"https://www.agriculture.gov.au/agriculture-land/farm-food-drought/drought/drought-policy/national-drought-agreement","page_or_section":"DAFF National Drought Agreement; introduction bullet 1 and online agreement Responsibilities of the Commonwealth (web lines 15 and 116–123)","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The agreement supports a preparedness classification but does not itself state the portal’s anticipatory-action maturity judgement. Absence of a trigger in this agreement cannot prove absence of all state or national mechanisms. The highlighted wording is policy context only; it does not verify the portal recommendation or automatic trigger-based finance."},{"evidence_id":"E0039","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"The Future Drought Fund supports farmers and communities with drought and climate preparedness, planning, practices, local networks and projects. This page does not establish automatic release of finance at a forecast threshold.","source_title":"Future Drought Fund","publisher":"Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.agriculture.gov.au/agriculture-land/farm-food-drought/drought/future-drought-fund","page_or_section":"Introduction, second paragraph; Our focus","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Official programme description recovered. Programme existence and resilience purpose are verified; absence of a complete trigger-finance facility is not proven by this page. Introduction, second paragraph; Our focus"},{"evidence_id":"E0040","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"The Future Drought Fund’s Regional Drought Resilience Planning programme supports community-led regional plans, expert feedback and grants to begin plan actions. It is a planning mechanism, not evidence of automatic forecast-triggered funding.","source_title":"Regional Drought Resilience Planning","publisher":"Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.agriculture.gov.au/agriculture-land/farm-food-drought/drought/future-drought-fund/regional-drought-resilience-planning","page_or_section":"Introduction > The plans, bullet 2; program support bullets and Delivery","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Official programme body recovered. References are undated; current programme details should not be retroactively assigned to a specific past issue. Introduction > The plans, bullet 2; program support bullets and Delivery"},{"evidence_id":"E0041","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"The Bureau’s 7 August 2026 statement reports July rainfall deficiencies and below-average soil moisture and streamflow in specified regions; it is a dated monitoring baseline, not a current local impact assessment.","source_title":"Drought statement","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/","page_or_section":"Archived statement issued 7 August 2026, Summary bullets on rainfall, soil moisture, streamflow and storage; saved capture lines 165–174","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Recovered the official August-issued archive. Header explicitly says issued 7 August 2026 and describes conditions at the end of July, matching the original month-level citation. The rolling URL now contains October content, which was not substituted. This supports a planning recommendation, not proof that the proposed local action is funded or implemented. Archived statement issued 7 August 2026, Summary bullets on rainfall, soil moisture, streamflow and storage; saved capture lines 165–174"},{"evidence_id":"E0042","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"Portal recommendation informed by Rainfall—Summary, September to November, issued 6 August 2026.","source_title":"Long-range forecast issued 6 August 2026","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","publication_date":"2026-08-06","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/archive/20260806-outlook.shtml","page_or_section":"Rainfall—Summary, September to November, issued 6 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The cited passage informs the portal recommendation; it does not establish that the proposed action, threshold or financing arrangement has been adopted. Analytical preparedness guidance, not evidence of completed measures or an adopted trigger."},{"evidence_id":"E0043","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"Portal recommendation informed by Northern Rainfall Onset for the 2026–2027 season, outlook summary and explanatory paragraphs.","source_title":"Northern rainfall onset outlook","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall-onset/","page_or_section":"Northern Rainfall Onset for the 2026–2027 season, outlook summary and explanatory paragraphs","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The cited passage informs the portal recommendation; it does not establish that the proposed action, threshold or financing arrangement has been adopted. Analytical preparedness guidance, not evidence of completed measures or an adopted trigger."},{"evidence_id":"E0044","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"Portal recommendation: link regional forecast thresholds to named actions, decision authority and financing, and review state arrangements.","source_title":"National Drought Agreement 2024–2029","publisher":"Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry","publication_date":"2024","exact_url":"https://www.agriculture.gov.au/agriculture-land/farm-food-drought/drought/drought-policy/national-drought-agreement","page_or_section":"DAFF National Drought Agreement; introduction bullet 1 and online agreement Responsibilities of the Commonwealth (web lines 15 and 116–123)","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The proposed action package is portal guidance, not an action list or current activation fact quoted from the National Drought Agreement. The highlighted wording is policy context only; it does not verify the portal recommendation or automatic trigger-based finance."},{"evidence_id":"E0045","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"The Bureau’s 7 August 2026 statement reports July rainfall deficiencies and below-average soil moisture and streamflow in specified regions; it is a dated monitoring baseline, not a current local impact assessment.","source_title":"Drought statement","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/","page_or_section":"Archived statement issued 7 August 2026, Summary bullets on rainfall, soil moisture, streamflow and storage; saved capture lines 165–174","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Recovered the official August-issued archive. Header explicitly says issued 7 August 2026 and describes conditions at the end of July, matching the original month-level citation. The rolling URL now contains October content, which was not substituted. This supports a planning recommendation, not proof that the proposed local action is funded or implemented. Archived statement issued 7 August 2026, Summary bullets on rainfall, soil moisture, streamflow and storage; saved capture lines 165–174"},{"evidence_id":"E0046","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"Portal recommendation informed by Northern Rainfall Onset for the 2026–2027 season, outlook summary and explanatory paragraphs.","source_title":"Northern rainfall onset outlook","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall-onset/","page_or_section":"Northern Rainfall Onset for the 2026–2027 season, outlook summary and explanatory paragraphs","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The cited passage informs the portal recommendation; it does not establish that the proposed action, threshold or financing arrangement has been adopted. Analytical preparedness guidance, not evidence of completed measures or an adopted trigger."},{"evidence_id":"E0047","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Long-range forecasts","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","page_or_section":"Rainfall — Summary, September–November; climate context for portal-suggested triggers","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact dated primary HTML archive checked. The short anchor identifies the relevant section; read the original archive for full geography, probabilities and qualifications. The source forecasts climate conditions; it does not approve the portal-suggested action thresholds, authorities or funding. portal_guidance"},{"evidence_id":"E0048","profile_id":"cook-islands","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Rainfall outlook map and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0049","profile_id":"cook-islands","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"ICU311 reported dry conditions in several Polynesian island groups in its 17 August assessment; local Cook Islands rainfall and water availability require separate evidence.","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 3: EAR regional situation summary, 17 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Regional dryness in Polynesia is supported, but the source does not provide a Cook-Islands-specific gauge or storage assessment. Regional backdrop only, no Cook Islands local-impact verification."},{"evidence_id":"E0050","profile_id":"cook-islands","used_for_field":"historical_forecast","claim_text":"The watch issued on 27 August 2026 cancelled the extreme-rainfall watch for Cook Islands. It retained a forecast of positive air-temperature anomalies above 1.5°C at the northern tip for 29 August–11 September; this was not an observed drought assessment.","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch, 27 August 2026, Issue 1","publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-08/Regional-Climate-Watch-27-08-2026-issue1.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 3; Regional Climate Watch issued 27 August 2026, valid 29 August–11 September 2026","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","evidence_kind":"forecast","source_scope_note":"The corrected claim concerns the cancelled rainfall watch and far-northern heat forecast. This source does not verify observed Cook Islands dry stress.","valid_from":"2026-08-29","valid_to":"2026-09-11"},{"evidence_id":"E0051","profile_id":"cook-islands","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Forecast maps and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0052","profile_id":"cook-islands","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"SPREP’s 13 June 2026 regional statement anticipated above-normal rainfall for the northern Cook Islands and an eastward shift of South Pacific cyclone genesis toward Samoa, Niue and the Cook Islands.","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: western/central-eastern rainfall contrast; cyclone-genesis paragraphs; short heavy-rain caveat","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The regional climate passage is verified, but most of the current country spatial note comes from other issues or is portal analysis. Only the narrowed context statement is supported by this citation. regional_climate_context_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0053","profile_id":"cook-islands","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: regional drought/rainfall and cyclone-genesis context","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article supplies regional hazard context, not evidence of the specific water, crop, health, energy, fisheries, cost or infrastructure effects listed for Cook Islands. analytical_risk_context_only; no_local_observed_impact_verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0054","profile_id":"cook-islands","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and health in the Pacific","publisher":"World Health Organization Western Pacific","publication_date":"2015-07-16","exact_url":"https://www.who.int/westernpacific/about/how-we-work/pacific-support/news/detail/16-07-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-health-in-the-pacific","page_or_section":"Historical pathway evidence; use for preparedness design, not as evidence of current 2026 impacts.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0055","profile_id":"cook-islands","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Supports gendered impact pathways and inclusive anticipatory actions; its Pacific country grouping is incomplete and should not be used as the sole rainfall matrix.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0056","profile_id":"cook-islands","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"The Pacific RCC portal provides regional climate-monitoring resources; country operational arrangements need separate documentation.","source_title":"Pacific RCC Climate Monitoring Portal","publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/rcc/climate-monitoring","page_or_section":"Climate Monitoring introductory paragraph; undated webpage captured 15 September 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The regional portal documents available climate-monitoring products. It does not verify the profile’s country monitoring implementation, planned strengthening, or absence of an ENSO trigger-action-finance protocol. regional_monitoring_gateway_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0057","profile_id":"cook-islands","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"The DREW project plans to develop or finalise drought management and response plans, SOPs and thresholds for Cook Islands.","source_title":"CREWS Drought Resilience and Early Warning (DREW) Pacific Project Document","publisher":"CREWS Initiative","publication_date":"2026-01","exact_url":"https://crews-initiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/CREWS-Drought-Resilience-and-Early-Warning-DREW-Pacific-Project-Document.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 16: Outcome 1, Output 1.1, first activity","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Page 16 names this country in planned drought management/response work. It does not establish delivery. Planned plans, SOPs and thresholds only."},{"evidence_id":"E0058","profile_id":"cook-islands","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"","source_title":"CREWS Drought Resilience and Early Warning (DREW) Pacific Project Document","publisher":"CREWS Initiative","publication_date":"2026-01","exact_url":"https://crews-initiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/CREWS-Drought-Resilience-and-Early-Warning-DREW-Pacific-Project-Document.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 16: Outcome 1, Output 1.1, first activity","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The maturity classification is portal analysis; the project document describes future work. Planned drought-system strengthening only."},{"evidence_id":"E0059","profile_id":"cook-islands","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"","source_title":"Anticipatory Action in Asia-Pacific: Regional Overview","publisher":"Anticipation Hub","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/overview/regions-countries/anticipatory-action-in-asia-pacific","page_or_section":"Countries directory and visible Fiji card; undated overview captured 15 September 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only"},{"evidence_id":"E0060","profile_id":"cook-islands","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"FAO anticipatory action guidance for El Niño","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://openknowledge.fao.org/bitstreams/a551eb91-d98b-4a4a-931a-49e9533d288e/download","page_or_section":"PDF page 15 (printed page 13): Asia and Pacific drought and flood/cyclone priority actions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Profile actions are portal recommendations. General agricultural preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0061","profile_id":"cook-islands","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"13 June 2026: broad water-management planning advice and National Meteorological Services paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The detailed action list for Cook Islands is a portal recommendation. Only broad water planning and use of national-service advice appear in the source. broad_source_guidance_only; detailed_actions_and_triggers_are_portal_analysis"},{"evidence_id":"E0062","profile_id":"cook-islands","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0063","profile_id":"cook-islands","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 8: methods table, Water stress watch and Water stress outlook","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"claim_text is blank and the profile has no triggers_to_monitor field; methods and category definitions were checked. Monitoring guidance, not operational triggers."},{"evidence_id":"E0064","profile_id":"cook-islands","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Pacific RCC Climate Monitoring Portal","publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/rcc/climate-monitoring","page_or_section":"Climate Watches: COSPPac Bulletin, Climate Drivers Update and Island Climate Update descriptions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The source describes monitoring resources but contains no country-specific action or escalation thresholds. The portal’s trigger recommendations are analytical guidance. monitoring_resource_context_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0065","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Rainfall outlook map and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0066","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"The 27 August 2026 release reported new abnormal dryness in Kapingamarangi, improvement in Yap and no depiction for Fananu or Pingelap because data were unavailable.","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor – U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publisher":"NDMC / NOAA / USDA / NASA","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260825.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section, federated-states-of-micronesia paragraph; release 27 August 2026, valid 25 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact archived jurisdiction paragraph is legible and agrees with the primary archived text. The current profile has later observations which this August citation cannot verify. direct_historical_monitoring_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0067","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"On 13 August 2026, Yap authorities issued a joint water-conservation and wildfire-prevention advisory, including leak repair, limiting nonessential use, reasonable water storage and caution with outdoor burning.","source_title":"Yap officials urge water conservation and wildfire prevention as El Niño strengthens","publisher":"Yap State Government","publication_date":"2026-08-13","exact_url":"https://www.yapstate.gov.fm/post/yap-officials-urge-water-conservation-and-wildfire-prevention-as-el-ni%C3%B1o-strengthens","page_or_section":"13 August 2026 article, second body paragraph; water conservation and wildfire prevention paragraphs","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Article date and original URL match. This confirms issuance of advice, not observed water shortages or actions completed. The later 21 August rainfall comparison is not stated in this source. 13 August 2026 article, second body paragraph; water conservation and wildfire prevention paragraphs"},{"evidence_id":"E0068","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Forecast maps and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0069","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"Regional context from SPREP, 13 June 2026: El Niño tends to shift cyclone genesis eastward, and short heavy-rain episodes can occur within a dry western-Pacific seasonal pattern. Country-specific outlook details require separate dated sources.","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: western/central-eastern rainfall contrast; cyclone-genesis paragraphs; short heavy-rain caveat","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The regional climate passage is verified, but most of the current country spatial note comes from other issues or is portal analysis. Only the narrowed context statement is supported by this citation. regional_climate_context_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0070","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: regional drought/rainfall and cyclone-genesis context","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article supplies regional hazard context, not evidence of the specific water, crop, health, energy, fisheries, cost or infrastructure effects listed for Federated States of Micronesia. analytical_risk_context_only; no_local_observed_impact_verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0071","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and health in the Pacific","publisher":"World Health Organization Western Pacific","publication_date":"2015-07-16","exact_url":"https://www.who.int/westernpacific/about/how-we-work/pacific-support/news/detail/16-07-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-health-in-the-pacific","page_or_section":"Historical pathway evidence; use for preparedness design, not as evidence of current 2026 impacts.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0072","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Supports gendered impact pathways and inclusive anticipatory actions; its Pacific country grouping is incomplete and should not be used as the sole rainfall matrix.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0073","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"NWS Guam, with JTWC and RSMC Tokyo, monitors weather across the Marianas and Micronesia for tropical-cyclone forecasts.","source_title":"2026 Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publisher":"NOAA National Weather Service Guam","publication_date":"2026-06-05","exact_url":"https://weather.gov/media/gum/2026_Western_North_Pacific_Tropical_Cyclone_Outlook_for_the_U.S._Affiliated_Pacific_Islands.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 4: NWS/JTWC/RSMC monitoring arrangements","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to narrower supported statement","source_scope_note":"The current readiness field concerns drought/flood finance or Guam’s water-shortage law; this TC outlook does not verify those assertions. It verifies regional cyclone monitoring capability only."},{"evidence_id":"E0074","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor – U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publisher":"NDMC / NOAA / USDA / NASA","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260825.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section, federated-states-of-micronesia paragraph; release 27 August 2026, valid 25 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only"},{"evidence_id":"E0075","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"On 13 August 2026, Yap authorities issued a joint water-conservation and wildfire-prevention advisory, including leak repair, limiting nonessential use, reasonable water storage and caution with outdoor burning.","source_title":"Yap officials urge water conservation and wildfire prevention as El Niño strengthens","publisher":"Yap State Government","publication_date":"2026-08-13","exact_url":"https://www.yapstate.gov.fm/post/yap-officials-urge-water-conservation-and-wildfire-prevention-as-el-ni%C3%B1o-strengthens","page_or_section":"13 August 2026 article, second body paragraph; water conservation and wildfire prevention paragraphs","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Article date and original URL match. This confirms issuance of advice, not observed water shortages or actions completed. The later 21 August rainfall comparison is not stated in this source. 13 August 2026 article, second body paragraph; water conservation and wildfire prevention paragraphs"},{"evidence_id":"E0076","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"","source_title":"Anticipatory Action in Asia-Pacific: Regional Overview","publisher":"Anticipation Hub","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/overview/regions-countries/anticipatory-action-in-asia-pacific","page_or_section":"Countries directory and visible Fiji card; undated overview captured 15 September 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only"},{"evidence_id":"E0077","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"FAO anticipatory action guidance for El Niño","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://openknowledge.fao.org/bitstreams/a551eb91-d98b-4a4a-931a-49e9533d288e/download","page_or_section":"PDF page 15 (printed page 13): Asia and Pacific drought and flood/cyclone priority actions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Profile actions are portal recommendations. General agricultural preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0078","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"13 June 2026: broad water-management planning advice and National Meteorological Services paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The detailed action list for Federated States of Micronesia is a portal recommendation. Only broad water planning and use of national-service advice appear in the source. broad_source_guidance_only; detailed_actions_and_triggers_are_portal_analysis"},{"evidence_id":"E0079","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0080","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 8: methods table, Water stress watch and Water stress outlook","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"claim_text is blank and the profile has no triggers_to_monitor field; methods and category definitions were checked. Monitoring guidance, not operational triggers."},{"evidence_id":"E0081","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor – U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publisher":"NDMC / NOAA / USDA / NASA","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260825.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section, federated-states-of-micronesia paragraph; release 27 August 2026, valid 25 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The archived drought class can inform an analyst recommendation, but this paragraph specifies no agreed local escalation threshold, action authority or financing release. portal_monitoring_recommendation_informed_by_historical_observations"},{"evidence_id":"E0082","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Rainfall outlook map and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0083","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"historical_forecast","claim_text":"The regional climate-watch map for 29 August–11 September 2026 shows no watch for Fiji. This historical watch status is not an observation of rainfall, drought or impacts.","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch, 27 August 2026, Issue 1","publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-08/Regional-Climate-Watch-27-08-2026-issue1.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 2; Regional Climate Watch issued 27 August 2026, valid 29 August–11 September 2026","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","evidence_kind":"forecast","source_scope_note":"The original source does not support the previous Fiji observed-dryness or impact association. The relevant EEZ is shown with the map’s no-watch convention, which is not proof of normal rainfall, absence of drought or absence of impacts.","valid_from":"2026-08-29","valid_to":"2026-09-11"},{"evidence_id":"E0084","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_short_term","claim_text":"Fiji’s August outlook favoured below-normal rainfall across Fiji and Rotuma for August, August–October 2026 and November 2026–January 2027.","source_title":"Fiji Climate Outlook: August 2026","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological Service","publication_date":"2026-07-31","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_Climate_Outlook_August_2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 2: rainfall forecast highlights for August, August–October and November–January","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to narrower supported statement","evidence_kind":"forecast","source_scope_note":"A rainfall outlook cannot verify the current observed_conditions field’s EAR categories or later Monasavu rainfall observations. Historical rainfall forecast only."},{"evidence_id":"E0085","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"The linked page is the Fiji Met Early Action Rainfall Watch bulletin directory; condition-specific evidence requires the corresponding dated bulletin.","source_title":"Early Action Rainfall Watch","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological Service","publication_date":"2026-08-12","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/climate-services/early-action-rainfall-watch/","page_or_section":"Early Action Rainfall Watch product description and monthly bulletin directory","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The visible material is a report directory, not the 12 August bulletin. It cannot verify specific observed conditions or subnational dry-risk probabilities. Product existence and source gateway only; not observed Rotuma/leeward/small-island conditions or numerical probabilities."},{"evidence_id":"E0086","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Forecast maps and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0087","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"Regional context from SPREP, 13 June 2026: El Niño tends to shift cyclone genesis eastward, and short heavy-rain episodes can occur within a dry western-Pacific seasonal pattern. Country-specific outlook details require separate dated sources.","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: western/central-eastern rainfall contrast; cyclone-genesis paragraphs; short heavy-rain caveat","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The regional climate passage is verified, but most of the current country spatial note comes from other issues or is portal analysis. Only the narrowed context statement is supported by this citation. regional_climate_context_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0088","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: regional drought/rainfall and cyclone-genesis context","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article supplies regional hazard context, not evidence of the specific water, crop, health, energy, fisheries, cost or infrastructure effects listed for Fiji. analytical_risk_context_only; no_local_observed_impact_verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0089","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and health in the Pacific","publisher":"World Health Organization Western Pacific","publication_date":"2015-07-16","exact_url":"https://www.who.int/westernpacific/about/how-we-work/pacific-support/news/detail/16-07-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-health-in-the-pacific","page_or_section":"Historical pathway evidence; use for preparedness design, not as evidence of current 2026 impacts.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0090","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Supports gendered impact pathways and inclusive anticipatory actions; its Pacific country grouping is incomplete and should not be used as the sole rainfall matrix.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0091","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"Fiji Met provides an Early Action Rainfall Watch product with rainfall observations and fortnightly, monthly and seasonal outlooks through a monthly bulletin directory.","source_title":"Early Action Rainfall Watch","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological Service","publication_date":"2026-08-12","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/climate-services/early-action-rainfall-watch/","page_or_section":"Early Action Rainfall Watch product description and monthly bulletin directory","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The page describes location-specific dry/wet outlooks and provides monthly report links. The screenshot does not display the dated bulletin maps or subnational probabilities cited in the evidence locator. Product existence and source gateway only; not observed Rotuma/leeward/small-island conditions or numerical probabilities."},{"evidence_id":"E0092","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"Anticipation Hub’s captured Fiji directory lists two active cyclone frameworks; this table does not list a drought framework.","source_title":"Anticipatory Action country profile: Fiji","publisher":"Anticipation Hub","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/countries/fiji","page_or_section":"Frameworks and activations table and cyclone hazard legend","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The saved country directory lists two active frameworks with cyclone icons. This establishes what the directory lists at capture time, not an exhaustive audit of Fiji’s drought arrangements. Directory-recorded framework/hazard status only; no nationwide absence claim and no evidence of completed assistance."},{"evidence_id":"E0093","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"The UN reported Fiji Cabinet endorsement of a tropical-cyclone anticipatory-action framework on 21 February 2024, financed through CERF and participating UN agencies, with forecast triggers and planned assistance packages.","source_title":"Fiji endorses the Pacific’s first anticipatory action framework for tropical cyclones","publisher":"United Nations Pacific","publication_date":"2024-02-21","exact_url":"https://pacific.un.org/en/261234-fiji-endorses-pacific%E2%80%99s-first-anticipatory-action-framework-tropical-cyclones","page_or_section":"Opening endorsement/funding paragraphs; pilot coordination, forecast triggers and assistance package paragraphs","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The UN article reports Cabinet endorsement and CERF/UN co-financing for a tropical-cyclone framework, with forecast criteria and planned assistance packages. These are cyclone-specific arrangements, not a drought protocol or evidence of completed distributions. Reported cyclone framework endorsement, financing design and planned actions; no drought-framework inference."},{"evidence_id":"E0094","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"Anticipation Hub’s captured Fiji directory lists two active cyclone frameworks; this table does not list a drought framework.","source_title":"Anticipatory Action country profile: Fiji","publisher":"Anticipation Hub","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/countries/fiji","page_or_section":"Frameworks and activations table and cyclone hazard legend","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The saved country directory lists two active frameworks with cyclone icons. This establishes what the directory lists at capture time, not an exhaustive audit of Fiji’s drought arrangements. Directory-recorded framework/hazard status only; no nationwide absence claim and no evidence of completed assistance."},{"evidence_id":"E0095","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"The UN reported Fiji Cabinet endorsement of a tropical-cyclone anticipatory-action framework on 21 February 2024, financed through CERF and participating UN agencies, with forecast triggers and planned assistance packages.","source_title":"Fiji endorses the Pacific’s first anticipatory action framework for tropical cyclones","publisher":"United Nations Pacific","publication_date":"2024-02-21","exact_url":"https://pacific.un.org/en/261234-fiji-endorses-pacific%E2%80%99s-first-anticipatory-action-framework-tropical-cyclones","page_or_section":"Opening endorsement/funding paragraphs; pilot coordination, forecast triggers and assistance package paragraphs","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The UN article reports Cabinet endorsement and CERF/UN co-financing for a tropical-cyclone framework, with forecast criteria and planned assistance packages. These are cyclone-specific arrangements, not a drought protocol or evidence of completed distributions. Reported cyclone framework endorsement, financing design and planned actions; no drought-framework inference."},{"evidence_id":"E0096","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"FAO anticipatory action guidance for El Niño","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://openknowledge.fao.org/bitstreams/a551eb91-d98b-4a4a-931a-49e9533d288e/download","page_or_section":"PDF page 15 (printed page 13): Asia and Pacific drought and flood/cyclone priority actions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Profile actions are portal recommendations. General agricultural preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0097","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"13 June 2026: broad water-management planning advice and National Meteorological Services paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The detailed action list for Fiji is a portal recommendation. Only broad water planning and use of national-service advice appear in the source. broad_source_guidance_only; detailed_actions_and_triggers_are_portal_analysis"},{"evidence_id":"E0098","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0099","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Fiji Climate Outlook: August 2026","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological Service","publication_date":"2026-07-31","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_Climate_Outlook_August_2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 2: rainfall forecast highlights for August, August–October and November–January","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The source provides forecasts to monitor; no trigger claim or profile trigger field is supplied. Forecast monitoring guidance only."},{"evidence_id":"E0100","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"Portal recommendation informed by Early Action Rainfall Watch product description and monthly bulletin directory.","source_title":"Early Action Rainfall Watch","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological Service","publication_date":"2026-08-12","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/climate-services/early-action-rainfall-watch/","page_or_section":"Early Action Rainfall Watch product description and monthly bulletin directory","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The cited passage informs the portal recommendation; it does not establish that the proposed action, threshold or financing arrangement has been adopted. Analytical preparedness guidance, not evidence of completed measures or an adopted trigger."},{"evidence_id":"E0101","profile_id":"french-polynesia","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Rainfall outlook map and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0102","profile_id":"french-polynesia","used_for_field":"historical_forecast","claim_text":"For ASO2026 the table favours dry rainfall for Society, Tuamotu, Austral and Marquesas, and near-normal rainfall for Gambier. This is historical forecast context, not the later SON/OND outlook.","source_title":"Prévisions saisonnières sur la Polynésie française","publisher":"Météo-France Polynésie française","publication_date":"2026-08-11","exact_url":"https://meteo.pf/fr/climat/previsions-saisonnieres-sur-la-polynesie-francaise","page_or_section":"Rainfall table — final preferred-scenario row; archipelago column headers; temperature table where relevant","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","source_scope_note":"ASO 2026 graphic recovered from the official dated filename. The graphic does not print an issue date; the filename, indexed period and HTTP modification date support the period, not proof of the exact publication timestamp. A published forecast table demonstrates provision of climate information, not an implemented preparedness action, an adopted trigger, a funded AA framework, or absence of one.","evidence_kind":"forecast","valid_from":"2026-08-01","valid_to":"2026-10-31"},{"evidence_id":"E0103","profile_id":"french-polynesia","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"ICU311’s 90-day EAR assessment ending 17 August included the Tuamotu Archipelago among seriously or very dry areas.","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 3: EAR regional situation summary, 17 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The exact locality appears in the source’s dated 90-day EAR narrative; other profile facts require their own sources. Dated regional rainfall classification only."},{"evidence_id":"E0104","profile_id":"french-polynesia","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Forecast maps and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0105","profile_id":"french-polynesia","used_for_field":"historical_forecast","claim_text":"For ASO2026 the table favours dry rainfall for Society, Tuamotu, Austral and Marquesas, and near-normal rainfall for Gambier. This is historical forecast context, not the later SON/OND outlook.","source_title":"Prévisions saisonnières sur la Polynésie française","publisher":"Météo-France Polynésie française","publication_date":"2026-08-11","exact_url":"https://meteo.pf/fr/climat/previsions-saisonnieres-sur-la-polynesie-francaise","page_or_section":"Rainfall table — final preferred-scenario row; archipelago column headers; temperature table where relevant","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","source_scope_note":"ASO 2026 graphic recovered from the official dated filename. The graphic does not print an issue date; the filename, indexed period and HTTP modification date support the period, not proof of the exact publication timestamp. A published forecast table demonstrates provision of climate information, not an implemented preparedness action, an adopted trigger, a funded AA framework, or absence of one.","evidence_kind":"forecast","valid_from":"2026-08-01","valid_to":"2026-10-31"},{"evidence_id":"E0106","profile_id":"french-polynesia","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"The May 2026 article describes heterogeneous ENSO climatology across French Polynesia, including generally wetter Marquesas and drier Austral Islands.","source_title":"El Niño : quels impacts sur les territoires d'outre-mer ?","publisher":"Météo-France","publication_date":"2026-05-13","exact_url":"https://meteofrance.com/actualites/el-nino-quels-impacts-sur-les-territoires-doutre-mer","page_or_section":"El Niño : quels seraient les impacts en Polynésie française ? — paragraph 1 and subsequent rainfall contrast","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","source_scope_note":"General ENSO climatology and possible pathways only; no verified2026 impacts, implementation, approval or funding. Portal preparedness recommendations are inference, not source-endorsed actions. Retrieved from the indexed official mobile article dated 13 May; direct endpoint unavailable. This is a text capture, not original HTML.","evidence_kind":"regional_risk_context"},{"evidence_id":"E0107","profile_id":"french-polynesia","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: regional drought/rainfall and cyclone-genesis context","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article supplies regional hazard context, not evidence of the specific water, crop, health, energy, fisheries, cost or infrastructure effects listed for French Polynesia. analytical_risk_context_only; no_local_observed_impact_verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0108","profile_id":"french-polynesia","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño Impact on Tropical Cyclones in the Pacific","publisher":"SPREP","publication_date":"2026-08-25","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/content/el-nino-impact-tropical-cyclones-pacific","page_or_section":"Catalog metadata and Abstract; record created/modified 25 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only"},{"evidence_id":"E0109","profile_id":"french-polynesia","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"The May 2026 article describes heterogeneous ENSO climatology across French Polynesia, including generally wetter Marquesas and drier Austral Islands.","source_title":"El Niño : quels impacts sur les territoires d'outre-mer ?","publisher":"Météo-France","publication_date":"2026-05-13","exact_url":"https://meteofrance.com/actualites/el-nino-quels-impacts-sur-les-territoires-doutre-mer","page_or_section":"El Niño : quels seraient les impacts en Polynésie française ? — paragraph 1 and subsequent rainfall contrast","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","source_scope_note":"General ENSO climatology and possible pathways only; no verified2026 impacts, implementation, approval or funding. Portal preparedness recommendations are inference, not source-endorsed actions. Retrieved from the indexed official mobile article dated 13 May; direct endpoint unavailable. This is a text capture, not original HTML.","evidence_kind":"regional_risk_context"},{"evidence_id":"E0110","profile_id":"french-polynesia","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"The Pacific RCC portal provides regional climate-monitoring resources; country operational arrangements need separate documentation.","source_title":"Pacific RCC Climate Monitoring Portal","publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/rcc/climate-monitoring","page_or_section":"Climate Monitoring introductory paragraph; undated webpage captured 15 September 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The regional portal documents available climate-monitoring products. It does not verify the profile’s country monitoring implementation, planned strengthening, or absence of an ENSO trigger-action-finance protocol. regional_monitoring_gateway_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0111","profile_id":"french-polynesia","used_for_field":"historical_forecast","claim_text":"For ASO2026 the table favours dry rainfall for Society, Tuamotu, Austral and Marquesas, and near-normal rainfall for Gambier. This is historical forecast context, not the later SON/OND outlook. Publication of a forecast is not evidence of implemented preparedness.","source_title":"Prévisions saisonnières sur la Polynésie française","publisher":"Météo-France Polynésie française","publication_date":"2026-08-11","exact_url":"https://meteo.pf/fr/climat/previsions-saisonnieres-sur-la-polynesie-francaise","page_or_section":"Rainfall table — final preferred-scenario row; archipelago column headers; temperature table where relevant","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","source_scope_note":"ASO 2026 graphic recovered from the official dated filename. The graphic does not print an issue date; the filename, indexed period and HTTP modification date support the period, not proof of the exact publication timestamp. A published forecast table demonstrates provision of climate information, not an implemented preparedness action, an adopted trigger, a funded AA framework, or absence of one.","evidence_kind":"forecast","valid_from":"2026-08-01","valid_to":"2026-10-31"},{"evidence_id":"E0112","profile_id":"french-polynesia","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"","source_title":"Anticipatory Action in Asia-Pacific: Regional Overview","publisher":"Anticipation Hub","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/overview/regions-countries/anticipatory-action-in-asia-pacific","page_or_section":"Countries directory and visible Fiji card; undated overview captured 15 September 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only"},{"evidence_id":"E0113","profile_id":"french-polynesia","used_for_field":"source_metadata","claim_text":"The ASO 2026 forecast table does not establish whether a national anticipatory-action framework, trigger or financing arrangement has been approved.","source_title":"Prévisions saisonnières sur la Polynésie française","publisher":"Météo-France Polynésie française","publication_date":"2026-08-11","exact_url":"https://meteo.pf/fr/climat/previsions-saisonnieres-sur-la-polynesie-francaise","page_or_section":"Rainfall table — final preferred-scenario row; archipelago column headers; temperature table where relevant","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","source_scope_note":"ASO 2026 graphic recovered from the official dated filename. The graphic does not print an issue date; the filename, indexed period and HTTP modification date support the period, not proof of the exact publication timestamp. A published forecast table demonstrates provision of climate information, not an implemented preparedness action, an adopted trigger, a funded AA framework, or absence of one.","evidence_kind":"source_evidence","valid_from":"2026-08-01","valid_to":"2026-10-31"},{"evidence_id":"E0114","profile_id":"french-polynesia","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"FAO anticipatory action guidance for El Niño","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://openknowledge.fao.org/bitstreams/a551eb91-d98b-4a4a-931a-49e9533d288e/download","page_or_section":"PDF page 15 (printed page 13): Asia and Pacific drought and flood/cyclone priority actions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Profile actions are portal recommendations. General agricultural preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0115","profile_id":"french-polynesia","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"For ASO2026 the table favours dry rainfall for Society, Tuamotu, Austral and Marquesas, and near-normal rainfall for Gambier. This is historical forecast context, not the later SON/OND outlook. Any preparedness actions or triggers are portal guidance requiring local validation and approval.","source_title":"Prévisions saisonnières sur la Polynésie française","publisher":"Météo-France Polynésie française","publication_date":"2026-08-11","exact_url":"https://meteo.pf/fr/climat/previsions-saisonnieres-sur-la-polynesie-francaise","page_or_section":"Rainfall table — final preferred-scenario row; archipelago column headers; temperature table where relevant","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","source_scope_note":"ASO 2026 graphic recovered from the official dated filename. The graphic does not print an issue date; the filename, indexed period and HTTP modification date support the period, not proof of the exact publication timestamp. A published forecast table demonstrates provision of climate information, not an implemented preparedness action, an adopted trigger, a funded AA framework, or absence of one.","evidence_kind":"preparedness_guidance","valid_from":"2026-08-01","valid_to":"2026-10-31"},{"evidence_id":"E0116","profile_id":"french-polynesia","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"The May 2026 article describes heterogeneous ENSO climatology across French Polynesia, including generally wetter Marquesas and drier Austral Islands. Preparedness recommendations are portal interpretation, not source-endorsed or financed actions.","source_title":"El Niño : quels impacts sur les territoires d'outre-mer ?","publisher":"Météo-France","publication_date":"2026-05-13","exact_url":"https://meteofrance.com/actualites/el-nino-quels-impacts-sur-les-territoires-doutre-mer","page_or_section":"El Niño : quels seraient les impacts en Polynésie française ? — paragraph 1 and subsequent rainfall contrast","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","source_scope_note":"General ENSO climatology and possible pathways only; no verified2026 impacts, implementation, approval or funding. Portal preparedness recommendations are inference, not source-endorsed actions. Retrieved from the indexed official mobile article dated 13 May; direct endpoint unavailable. This is a text capture, not original HTML.","evidence_kind":"preparedness_guidance"},{"evidence_id":"E0117","profile_id":"french-polynesia","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 8: methods table, Water stress watch and Water stress outlook","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"claim_text is blank and the profile has no triggers_to_monitor field; methods and category definitions were checked. Monitoring guidance, not operational triggers."},{"evidence_id":"E0118","profile_id":"french-polynesia","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"For ASO2026 the table favours dry rainfall for Society, Tuamotu, Austral and Marquesas, and near-normal rainfall for Gambier. This is historical forecast context, not the later SON/OND outlook. Any preparedness actions or triggers are portal guidance requiring local validation and approval.","source_title":"Prévisions saisonnières sur la Polynésie française","publisher":"Météo-France Polynésie française","publication_date":"2026-08-11","exact_url":"https://meteo.pf/fr/climat/previsions-saisonnieres-sur-la-polynesie-francaise","page_or_section":"Rainfall table — final preferred-scenario row; archipelago column headers; temperature table where relevant","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","source_scope_note":"ASO 2026 graphic recovered from the official dated filename. The graphic does not print an issue date; the filename, indexed period and HTTP modification date support the period, not proof of the exact publication timestamp. A published forecast table demonstrates provision of climate information, not an implemented preparedness action, an adopted trigger, a funded AA framework, or absence of one.","evidence_kind":"preparedness_guidance","valid_from":"2026-08-01","valid_to":"2026-10-31"},{"evidence_id":"E0119","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Rainfall outlook map and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0120","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"","source_title":"NOAA NMME seasonal precipitation probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pacdir/NMME1dir/prob_ensemble_prate_usapi_season1.png","page_or_section":"August 2026 initialization, lead 1: September–November precipitation-probability map","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending original issue; numerical probability not verified","source_scope_note":"For Guam, the earlier portal entry attributed approximately 50% probability of below-normal SON 2026 rainfall to the NOAA August USAPI map; that original issue has not been recovered. The reviewed NOAA global map (IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026) shows an approximately 70% below-normal category in the nearby coarse grid. These are different products, not precise island probabilities or two independently verified conflicting originals. The portal uses the traceable global map for the dry direction and retains the legacy value for comparison."},{"evidence_id":"E0121","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"Guam recorded 3.04 inches of rain and the Marianas remained free of drought or abnormal dryness in the 27 August 2026 release.","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor – U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publisher":"NDMC / NOAA / USDA / NASA","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260825.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section, guam paragraph; release 27 August 2026, valid 25 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact archived jurisdiction paragraph is legible and agrees with the primary archived text. The current profile has later observations which this August citation cannot verify. direct_historical_monitoring_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0122","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"The U.S. Drought Monitor valid 25 August 2026 showed Guam without drought or abnormal dryness.","source_title":"U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands drought map, valid 25 August 2026","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center / NOAA / USDA / NASA","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pdf/20260825/20260825_usdm_pg2.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 1: dated island symbols with drought and duration legends","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The dated map and its legend were visually checked; the live profile now concerns a later monitoring week. 25 August 2026 island-level drought classification only."},{"evidence_id":"E0123","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Forecast maps and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0124","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"NOAA NMME seasonal precipitation probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pacdir/NMME1dir/prob_ensemble_prate_usapi_season1.png","page_or_section":"Coarse-grid September–November precipitation-probability map","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending original issue; numerical probability not verified","source_scope_note":"For Guam, the earlier portal entry attributed approximately 50% probability of below-normal SON 2026 rainfall to the NOAA August USAPI map; that original issue has not been recovered. The reviewed NOAA global map (IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026) shows an approximately 70% below-normal category in the nearby coarse grid. These are different products, not precise island probabilities or two independently verified conflicting originals. The portal uses the traceable global map for the dry direction and retains the legacy value for comparison."},{"evidence_id":"E0125","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"NOAA NMME seasonal 2-metre temperature probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pacdir/NMME1dir/prob_ensemble_tmp2m_usapi_season1.png","page_or_section":"Coarse-grid September–November 2-metre temperature-probability map","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending original regional issue; alternative context only","source_scope_note":"The exact August 2026 USAPI graphic is still missing. Official archive regional files displaying June 2021 initialization were rejected. A separately labelled global graphic of the same initialization corroborates the broad category; original-image recovery remains outstanding."},{"evidence_id":"E0126","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"2026 Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publisher":"NOAA National Weather Service Guam","publication_date":"2026-06-05","exact_url":"https://weather.gov/media/gum/2026_Western_North_Pacific_Tropical_Cyclone_Outlook_for_the_U.S._Affiliated_Pacific_Islands.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 2: intensification narrative and June–December regional TC table; PDF page 3: outlook limits and year-round preparedness guidance","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The source supports prospective cyclone risk in the impacts list, not the full drought/heat list or observed effects. Potential cyclone impacts only."},{"evidence_id":"E0127","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and its impacts on Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands","publisher":"NOAA / National Integrated Drought Information System / Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.weather.gov/media/peac/one_pagers/El%20Nino%20Impacts%20on%20Guam%20and%20the%20CNMI.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 2: drought-preparedness impact bullets","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The source describes potential water, crop, ecosystem, health and wildfire effects during El Niño. Climatological risk context only."},{"evidence_id":"E0128","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"Guam’s 2024 plan identifies drought-related water shortages and poorer water quality, crop losses, and increased wildfire risk, with the south and Mount Santa Rosa surroundings particularly susceptible.","source_title":"Guam 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan","publisher":"Guam Homeland Security / Office of Civil Defense","publication_date":"2024","exact_url":"https://ghs.guam.gov/sites/default/files/guam_2024_hmp_20240711_ms_updated_maps.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 82 / printed p. 69, section 5.5.3 Drought: Summary of Potential Impacts and Jurisdictions’ Vulnerability","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. 2024 drought vulnerability baseline; no claim that these impacts are occurring in 2026."},{"evidence_id":"E0129","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"NWS Guam, with JTWC and RSMC Tokyo, monitors weather across the Marianas and Micronesia for tropical-cyclone forecasts.","source_title":"2026 Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publisher":"NOAA National Weather Service Guam","publication_date":"2026-06-05","exact_url":"https://weather.gov/media/gum/2026_Western_North_Pacific_Tropical_Cyclone_Outlook_for_the_U.S._Affiliated_Pacific_Islands.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 4: NWS/JTWC/RSMC monitoring arrangements","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to narrower supported statement","source_scope_note":"The current readiness field concerns drought/flood finance or Guam’s water-shortage law; this TC outlook does not verify those assertions. It verifies regional cyclone monitoring capability only."},{"evidence_id":"E0130","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor – U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publisher":"NDMC / NOAA / USDA / NASA","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260825.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section, guam paragraph; release 27 August 2026, valid 25 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only"},{"evidence_id":"E0131","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"Guam law adopts Fena water-conservation levels, requires groundwater severity phases and water-use rules, and assigns alerting and salinity/chloride monitoring duties. A separate customer-assistance fund is not automatically linked to those phases in the reviewed provisions.","source_title":"Title 12, Chapter 14: Guam Waterworks Authority","publisher":"Compiler of Laws, Judiciary of Guam","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://col.guamcourts.gov/sites/default/files/12gc014.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 31: §§14303–14306, water-conservation standards, rules, alerts and monitoring; PDF page 3: §14104(p), Customer Assistance Program","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The exact statutory provisions establish standards, rulemaking, alerts and monitoring duties. Legal framework, not proof of implemented numerical thresholds or current activation."},{"evidence_id":"E0132","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"Guam’s 2024 plan records GWA’s water-conservation restrictions and severity-alert procedures, alongside WERI/USGS monitoring of saltwater intrusion, freshwater-lens thickness and streamflow.","source_title":"Guam 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan","publisher":"Guam Homeland Security / Office of Civil Defense","publication_date":"2024","exact_url":"https://ghs.guam.gov/sites/default/files/guam_2024_hmp_20240711_ms_updated_maps.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 188 / printed p. 175, section 6 mitigation strategy capability inventory, Drought Management row","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Measures inventoried in the 2024 plan, not independent confirmation of current implementation or financing."},{"evidence_id":"E0133","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"","source_title":"Title 12, Chapter 14: Guam Waterworks Authority","publisher":"Compiler of Laws, Judiciary of Guam","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://col.guamcourts.gov/sites/default/files/12gc014.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 31: §§14303–14306, water-conservation standards, rules, alerts and monitoring; PDF page 3: §14104(p), Customer Assistance Program","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The maturity/finance label is an analytical reading of the statute, not a quoted source classification. Legal framework verified; operational and finance linkage not verified."},{"evidence_id":"E0134","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"The 2024 plan documents Guam’s drought-management restrictions, alert procedures and water monitoring. It is baseline evidence for preparedness; current trigger-linked financing requires separate evidence.","source_title":"Guam 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan","publisher":"Guam Homeland Security / Office of Civil Defense","publication_date":"2024","exact_url":"https://ghs.guam.gov/sites/default/files/guam_2024_hmp_20240711_ms_updated_maps.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 188 / printed p. 175, section 6 mitigation strategy capability inventory, Drought Management row","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"A plan capability row cannot itself verify the portal’s current maturity or absence of financing. Source supports the named capabilities; the current anticipatory-action maturity judgement is a portal assessment."},{"evidence_id":"E0135","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"FAO anticipatory action guidance for El Niño","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://openknowledge.fao.org/bitstreams/a551eb91-d98b-4a4a-931a-49e9533d288e/download","page_or_section":"PDF page 15 (printed page 13): Asia and Pacific drought and flood/cyclone priority actions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Profile actions are portal recommendations. General agricultural preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0136","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and its impacts on Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands","publisher":"NOAA / National Integrated Drought Information System / Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.weather.gov/media/peac/one_pagers/El%20Nino%20Impacts%20on%20Guam%20and%20the%20CNMI.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 2: Weather Ready Tips and rainwater catchment guidance","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The source offers preparedness tips; it does not document implementation of the profile’s action package. General water/crop preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0137","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"Title 12, Chapter 14: Guam Waterworks Authority","publisher":"Compiler of Laws, Judiciary of Guam","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://col.guamcourts.gov/sites/default/files/12gc014.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 31: §§14303–14306, water-conservation standards, rules, alerts and monitoring","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Statutory duties inform monitoring and action recommendations; no portal-specific trigger package is stated. Legal basis for recommendations only."},{"evidence_id":"E0138","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"The portal recommends checking water supply and wildfire readiness in light of the 2024 plan’s identified drought risks to water, crops and vegetation.","source_title":"Guam 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan","publisher":"Guam Homeland Security / Office of Civil Defense","publication_date":"2024","exact_url":"https://ghs.guam.gov/sites/default/files/guam_2024_hmp_20240711_ms_updated_maps.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 82 / printed p. 69, section 5.5.3 Drought: Summary of Potential Impacts and Jurisdictions’ Vulnerability","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The plan supports the risks underlying the recommendation, not every proposed action, threshold, or 2027 logistics instruction. Portal recommendation informed by the cited risk baseline."},{"evidence_id":"E0139","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"2026 Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publisher":"NOAA National Weather Service Guam","publication_date":"2026-06-05","exact_url":"https://weather.gov/media/gum/2026_Western_North_Pacific_Tropical_Cyclone_Outlook_for_the_U.S._Affiliated_Pacific_Islands.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 3: outlook limits and year-round preparedness guidance","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"claim_text and profile trigger field are absent; source advises preparedness and forecast monitoring. Preparedness guidance only."},{"evidence_id":"E0140","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor – U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publisher":"NDMC / NOAA / USDA / NASA","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260825.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section, guam paragraph; release 27 August 2026, valid 25 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The archived drought class can inform an analyst recommendation, but this paragraph specifies no agreed local escalation threshold, action authority or financing release. portal_monitoring_recommendation_informed_by_historical_observations"},{"evidence_id":"E0141","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"NOAA NMME seasonal precipitation probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pacdir/NMME1dir/prob_ensemble_prate_usapi_season1.png","page_or_section":"Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending original issue; numerical probability not verified","source_scope_note":"For Guam, the earlier portal entry attributed approximately 50% probability of below-normal SON 2026 rainfall to the NOAA August USAPI map; that original issue has not been recovered. The reviewed NOAA global map (IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026) shows an approximately 70% below-normal category in the nearby coarse grid. These are different products, not precise island probabilities or two independently verified conflicting originals. The portal uses the traceable global map for the dry direction and retains the legacy value for comparison."},{"evidence_id":"E0142","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Title 12, Chapter 14: Guam Waterworks Authority","publisher":"Compiler of Laws, Judiciary of Guam","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://col.guamcourts.gov/sites/default/files/12gc014.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 31: §§14303–14306, water-conservation standards, rules, alerts and monitoring","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Statutory duties inform monitoring and action recommendations; no portal-specific trigger package is stated. Legal basis for recommendations only."},{"evidence_id":"E0143","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Rainfall outlook map and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0144","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"historical_forecast","claim_text":"For 29 August–11 September 2026, the regional watch forecast a very high chance of very wet conditions over the Gilbert, Phoenix and northern Line Islands. The source provides a dated forecast, not observed rainfall or a national drought classification.","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch, 27 August 2026, Issue 1","publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-08/Regional-Climate-Watch-27-08-2026-issue1.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 3; Regional Climate Watch issued 27 August 2026, valid 29 August–11 September 2026","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","evidence_kind":"forecast","source_scope_note":"The named islands and forecast period support the corrected historical forecast only.","valid_from":"2026-08-29","valid_to":"2026-09-11"},{"evidence_id":"E0145","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Forecast maps and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0146","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"Regional context from SPREP, 13 June 2026: El Niño tends to shift cyclone genesis eastward, and short heavy-rain episodes can occur within a dry western-Pacific seasonal pattern. Country-specific outlook details require separate dated sources.","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: western/central-eastern rainfall contrast; cyclone-genesis paragraphs; short heavy-rain caveat","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The regional climate passage is verified, but most of the current country spatial note comes from other issues or is portal analysis. Only the narrowed context statement is supported by this citation. regional_climate_context_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0147","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: regional drought/rainfall and cyclone-genesis context","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article supplies regional hazard context, not evidence of the specific water, crop, health, energy, fisheries, cost or infrastructure effects listed for Kiribati. analytical_risk_context_only; no_local_observed_impact_verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0148","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and health in the Pacific","publisher":"World Health Organization Western Pacific","publication_date":"2015-07-16","exact_url":"https://www.who.int/westernpacific/about/how-we-work/pacific-support/news/detail/16-07-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-health-in-the-pacific","page_or_section":"Historical pathway evidence; use for preparedness design, not as evidence of current 2026 impacts.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0149","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Supports gendered impact pathways and inclusive anticipatory actions; its Pacific country grouping is incomplete and should not be used as the sole rainfall matrix.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0150","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"The DREW project plans to develop or finalise drought management and response plans, SOPs and thresholds for Kiribati.","source_title":"CREWS Drought Resilience and Early Warning (DREW) Pacific Project Document","publisher":"CREWS Initiative","publication_date":"2026-01","exact_url":"https://crews-initiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/CREWS-Drought-Resilience-and-Early-Warning-DREW-Pacific-Project-Document.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 16: Outcome 1, Output 1.1, first activity","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Page 16 names this country in planned drought management/response work. It does not establish delivery. Planned plans, SOPs and thresholds only."},{"evidence_id":"E0151","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"UNDRR’s 2025 publication summary describes Kiribati efforts to improve early warning and early action, including risk knowledge, forecasting, communication and satellite connectivity; detailed operational gaps and thresholds were not verified.","source_title":"Kiribati Early Warnings for All country profile","publisher":"UNDRR","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.undrr.org/media/111978/download","page_or_section":"Official publication landing page, introductory summary, paragraphs 1–2","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original media URL redirects to an automatic-download landing page; direct link loops and HTTP fetch is 403. Official publication page links to that exact media/111978/download, proving identity. Only the substantive publication summary is verified, not the unseen four-page PDF. Official publication summary only; no proof of completed EW4All capacity, current forecast, trigger-action-finance protocol or detailed gaps."},{"evidence_id":"E0152","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"","source_title":"CREWS Drought Resilience and Early Warning (DREW) Pacific Project Document","publisher":"CREWS Initiative","publication_date":"2026-01","exact_url":"https://crews-initiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/CREWS-Drought-Resilience-and-Early-Warning-DREW-Pacific-Project-Document.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 16: Outcome 1, Output 1.1, first activity","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The maturity classification is portal analysis; the project document describes future work. Planned drought-system strengthening only."},{"evidence_id":"E0153","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"","source_title":"Anticipatory Action in Asia-Pacific: Regional Overview","publisher":"Anticipation Hub","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/overview/regions-countries/anticipatory-action-in-asia-pacific","page_or_section":"Countries directory and visible Fiji card; undated overview captured 15 September 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only"},{"evidence_id":"E0154","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"FAO anticipatory action guidance for El Niño","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://openknowledge.fao.org/bitstreams/a551eb91-d98b-4a4a-931a-49e9533d288e/download","page_or_section":"PDF page 15 (printed page 13): Asia and Pacific drought and flood/cyclone priority actions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Profile actions are portal recommendations. General agricultural preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0155","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"13 June 2026: broad water-management planning advice and National Meteorological Services paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The detailed action list for Kiribati is a portal recommendation. Only broad water planning and use of national-service advice appear in the source. broad_source_guidance_only; detailed_actions_and_triggers_are_portal_analysis"},{"evidence_id":"E0156","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0157","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 8: methods table, Water stress watch and Water stress outlook","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"claim_text is blank and the profile has no triggers_to_monitor field; methods and category definitions were checked. Monitoring guidance, not operational triggers."},{"evidence_id":"E0158","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"The 27 August regional watch provided a short-term heavy-rainfall forecast for parts of Kiribati for 29 August–11 September. Using rainfall, drainage and water-quality indicators for preparedness is portal guidance requiring locally agreed thresholds; this document does not define an approved trigger-action-finance protocol.","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch, 27 August 2026, Issue 1","publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-08/Regional-Climate-Watch-27-08-2026-issue1.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 3; Regional Climate Watch issued 27 August 2026, valid 29 August–11 September 2026","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","evidence_kind":"preparedness_guidance","source_scope_note":"Climate basis for portal preparedness guidance only. National thresholds, funding and implementation are not established by this source.","valid_from":"2026-08-29","valid_to":"2026-09-11"},{"evidence_id":"E0159","profile_id":"nauru","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Rainfall outlook map and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0160","profile_id":"nauru","used_for_field":"historical_forecast","claim_text":"For 29 August–11 September 2026, the regional watch forecast a very high chance of very wet conditions over eastern Nauru. This is a historical short-term forecast and does not establish a national drought status or declaration.","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch, 27 August 2026, Issue 1","publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-08/Regional-Climate-Watch-27-08-2026-issue1.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 3; Regional Climate Watch issued 27 August 2026, valid 29 August–11 September 2026","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","evidence_kind":"forecast","source_scope_note":"The source supports the eastern-Nauru wet forecast only, not national declaration status.","valid_from":"2026-08-29","valid_to":"2026-09-11"},{"evidence_id":"E0161","profile_id":"nauru","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"Nauru’s official climate portal provides an Early Action Rainfall Watch bulletin directory, including a July 2026 link.","source_title":"Nauru Meteorological and Hydrological Service climate portal","publisher":"Nauru Meteorological and Hydrological Service","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.naurumet.com/climate","page_or_section":"EAR Watch Bulletin section and dated bulletin links","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The screenshot contains a bulletin directory through July 2026 and an older La Niña Watch graphic. It does not itself verify current national water conditions, a 2026 disaster declaration or a current ENSO phase. National monitoring gateway only; current conditions require the appropriate dated bulletin."},{"evidence_id":"E0162","profile_id":"nauru","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Forecast maps and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0163","profile_id":"nauru","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"Regional context from SPREP, 13 June 2026: El Niño tends to shift cyclone genesis eastward, and short heavy-rain episodes can occur within a dry western-Pacific seasonal pattern. Country-specific outlook details require separate dated sources.","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: western/central-eastern rainfall contrast; cyclone-genesis paragraphs; short heavy-rain caveat","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The regional climate passage is verified, but most of the current country spatial note comes from other issues or is portal analysis. Only the narrowed context statement is supported by this citation. regional_climate_context_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0164","profile_id":"nauru","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: regional drought/rainfall and cyclone-genesis context","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article supplies regional hazard context, not evidence of the specific water, crop, health, energy, fisheries, cost or infrastructure effects listed for Republic of Naoero. analytical_risk_context_only; no_local_observed_impact_verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0165","profile_id":"nauru","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and health in the Pacific","publisher":"World Health Organization Western Pacific","publication_date":"2015-07-16","exact_url":"https://www.who.int/westernpacific/about/how-we-work/pacific-support/news/detail/16-07-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-health-in-the-pacific","page_or_section":"Historical pathway evidence; use for preparedness design, not as evidence of current 2026 impacts.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0166","profile_id":"nauru","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Supports gendered impact pathways and inclusive anticipatory actions; its Pacific country grouping is incomplete and should not be used as the sole rainfall matrix.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0167","profile_id":"nauru","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"Nauru’s official climate portal provides an Early Action Rainfall Watch bulletin directory, including a July 2026 link.","source_title":"Nauru Meteorological and Hydrological Service climate portal","publisher":"Nauru Meteorological and Hydrological Service","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.naurumet.com/climate","page_or_section":"EAR Watch Bulletin section and dated bulletin links","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The screenshot contains a bulletin directory through July 2026 and an older La Niña Watch graphic. It does not itself verify current national water conditions, a 2026 disaster declaration or a current ENSO phase. National monitoring gateway only; current conditions require the appropriate dated bulletin."},{"evidence_id":"E0168","profile_id":"nauru","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"PCRIC reports donor-supported design work for Nauru drought policies; the three-stage trigger example on this page concerns Tonga.","source_title":"Pacific Drought Insurance Product","publisher":"Pacific Catastrophe Risk Insurance Company","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://pcric.org/drought/","page_or_section":"Product development paragraph; trigger-level explanation and numbered Tonga example","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The Nauru reference concerns support for policy design; the listed three-stage mechanism is explicitly Tonga’s example. Active Nauru contract terms are not shown. Nauru policy-development context, not active coverage or payout-use verification."},{"evidence_id":"E0169","profile_id":"nauru","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"PCRIC reported Nauru drought-policy arrangements for coverage from 1 April 2026 to 31 March 2027. The report does not establish national payout-use procedures or household action thresholds.","source_title":"Nauru becomes 11th PCRIC Council Member with purchase of drought protection policy","publisher":"PCRIC","publication_date":"2026-04-02","exact_url":"https://pcric.org/2026/04/02/nauru-becomes-11th-pcric-council-member-with-purchase-of-drought-protection-policy/","page_or_section":"2 April 2026 article, second body paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original date-prefixed URL returns 404. Official undated canonical article has the same title and explicit publication date 2 April 2026; this is same-article proof, not a replacement event. 2 April 2026 article, second body paragraph"},{"evidence_id":"E0170","profile_id":"nauru","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"PCRIC’s product page identifies Nauru policy-design support but does not verify a complete Nauru action-by-trigger protocol.","source_title":"Pacific Drought Insurance Product","publisher":"Pacific Catastrophe Risk Insurance Company","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://pcric.org/drought/","page_or_section":"Product development paragraph; trigger-level explanation and numbered Tonga example","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The page does not establish Nauru’s active contract, trigger terms or a complete national action protocol. Nauru financing-design context only."},{"evidence_id":"E0171","profile_id":"nauru","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"PCRIC reported Nauru drought-policy arrangements for coverage from 1 April 2026 to 31 March 2027. The report does not establish national payout-use procedures or household action thresholds.","source_title":"Nauru becomes 11th PCRIC Council Member with purchase of drought protection policy","publisher":"PCRIC","publication_date":"2026-04-02","exact_url":"https://pcric.org/2026/04/02/nauru-becomes-11th-pcric-council-member-with-purchase-of-drought-protection-policy/","page_or_section":"2 April 2026 article, second body paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original date-prefixed URL returns 404. Official undated canonical article has the same title and explicit publication date 2 April 2026; this is same-article proof, not a replacement event. 2 April 2026 article, second body paragraph"},{"evidence_id":"E0172","profile_id":"nauru","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"FAO anticipatory action guidance for El Niño","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://openknowledge.fao.org/bitstreams/a551eb91-d98b-4a4a-931a-49e9533d288e/download","page_or_section":"PDF page 15 (printed page 13): Asia and Pacific drought and flood/cyclone priority actions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Profile actions are portal recommendations. General agricultural preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0173","profile_id":"nauru","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"13 June 2026: broad water-management planning advice and National Meteorological Services paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The detailed action list for Republic of Naoero is a portal recommendation. Only broad water planning and use of national-service advice appear in the source. broad_source_guidance_only; detailed_actions_and_triggers_are_portal_analysis"},{"evidence_id":"E0174","profile_id":"nauru","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0175","profile_id":"nauru","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 8: methods table, Water stress watch and Water stress outlook","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"claim_text is blank and the profile has no triggers_to_monitor field; methods and category definitions were checked. Monitoring guidance, not operational triggers."},{"evidence_id":"E0176","profile_id":"nauru","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"Portal recommendation informed by EAR Watch Bulletin section and dated bulletin links.","source_title":"Nauru Meteorological and Hydrological Service climate portal","publisher":"Nauru Meteorological and Hydrological Service","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.naurumet.com/climate","page_or_section":"EAR Watch Bulletin section and dated bulletin links","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The cited passage informs the portal recommendation; it does not establish that the proposed action, threshold or financing arrangement has been adopted. Analytical preparedness guidance, not evidence of completed measures or an adopted trigger."},{"evidence_id":"E0177","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Rainfall outlook map and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0178","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"Météo-France’s August 2026 bulletin favours below-normal rainfall for New Caledonia during September–November 2026. Individual months may differ from the three-month tendency; this is a forecast and does not demonstrate a financed anticipatory-action protocol.","source_title":"Prévision saisonnière pour le trimestre septembre–octobre–novembre 2026","publisher":"Météo-France Nouvelle-Calédonie","publication_date":"2026-08-17","exact_url":"https://meteo.nc/fr/publications/prevision-saisonniere-pour-le-trimestre-septembre-octobre-novembre-2026","page_or_section":"August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The original territorial page is dated 17 August 2026 and links to this exact downloadable bulletin. PDF cover identifies the jurisdiction, August issue and September–November validity, establishing same-issue identity. Only the rainfall text is used; no map-derived percentages inferred. August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart"},{"evidence_id":"E0179","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"Météo-France’s 19 June 2026 article describes typical September–April rainfall reductions in New Caledonia, notes deficits in April–May following a wet first quarter, and discusses a dry second-half outlook. Later seasonal bulletins take precedence.","source_title":"El Niño : quels impacts pour la Nouvelle-Calédonie ?","publisher":"Météo-France Nouvelle-Calédonie","publication_date":"2026-06-19","exact_url":"https://meteo.nc/fr/actualites/el-nino-quels-impacts-pour-la-nouvelle-caledonie","page_or_section":"En théorie, quelles sont les conséquences d’un El Niño sur le territoire?; Retour sur ce début d’année; Les prévisions pour les mois à venir","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original dated article body recovered through HTTP despite web-open error. This verifies the June account and local climatology; it does not demonstrate later observed drought, finance or completed preparedness actions. En théorie, quelles sont les conséquences d’un El Niño sur le territoire?; Retour sur ce début d’année; Les prévisions pour les mois à venir"},{"evidence_id":"E0180","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"ICU311’s 90-day EAR assessment ending 17 August included parts of New Caledonia among seriously or very dry areas.","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 3: EAR regional situation summary, 17 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The exact locality appears in the source’s dated 90-day EAR narrative; other profile facts require their own sources. Dated regional rainfall classification only."},{"evidence_id":"E0181","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"Météo-France’s July 2026 territory-wide summary reports rainfall 81% above normal and mean temperature 0.2°C below normal.","source_title":"Bulletin Climatique Mensuel – Juillet 2026","publisher":"Météo-France Nouvelle-Calédonie","publication_date":"2026-08-10","exact_url":"https://meteo.nc/fr/publications/bulletin-climatique-mensuel-juillet-2026","page_or_section":"Territory-scale July summary immediately above Les grandes lignes; precipitation infographic","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The dimmed summary remains readable and was corroborated against the exact July article, primary web text turn128view1 lines 44–48. It reports +81% monthly rainfall and a −0.2°C mean-temperature departure; neither value establishes a 90-day subterritorial status. July 2026 territorial meteorological observations; not current drought impacts or water-service conditions."},{"evidence_id":"E0182","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Forecast maps and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0183","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"Météo-France’s August 2026 bulletin favours below-normal rainfall for New Caledonia during September–November 2026. Individual months may differ from the three-month tendency; this is a forecast and does not demonstrate a financed anticipatory-action protocol.","source_title":"Prévision saisonnière pour le trimestre septembre–octobre–novembre 2026","publisher":"Météo-France Nouvelle-Calédonie","publication_date":"2026-08-17","exact_url":"https://meteo.nc/fr/publications/prevision-saisonniere-pour-le-trimestre-septembre-octobre-novembre-2026","page_or_section":"August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The original territorial page is dated 17 August 2026 and links to this exact downloadable bulletin. PDF cover identifies the jurisdiction, August issue and September–November validity, establishing same-issue identity. Only the rainfall text is used; no map-derived percentages inferred. August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart"},{"evidence_id":"E0184","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"Météo-France’s 19 June 2026 article describes typical September–April rainfall reductions in New Caledonia, notes deficits in April–May following a wet first quarter, and discusses a dry second-half outlook. Later seasonal bulletins take precedence.","source_title":"El Niño : quels impacts pour la Nouvelle-Calédonie ?","publisher":"Météo-France Nouvelle-Calédonie","publication_date":"2026-06-19","exact_url":"https://meteo.nc/fr/actualites/el-nino-quels-impacts-pour-la-nouvelle-caledonie","page_or_section":"En théorie, quelles sont les conséquences d’un El Niño sur le territoire?; Retour sur ce début d’année; Les prévisions pour les mois à venir","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original dated article body recovered through HTTP despite web-open error. This verifies the June account and local climatology; it does not demonstrate later observed drought, finance or completed preparedness actions. En théorie, quelles sont les conséquences d’un El Niño sur le territoire?; Retour sur ce début d’année; Les prévisions pour les mois à venir"},{"evidence_id":"E0185","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: regional drought/rainfall and cyclone-genesis context","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article supplies regional hazard context, not evidence of the specific water, crop, health, energy, fisheries, cost or infrastructure effects listed for New Caledonia. analytical_risk_context_only; no_local_observed_impact_verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0186","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño Impact on Tropical Cyclones in the Pacific","publisher":"SPREP","publication_date":"2026-08-25","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/content/el-nino-impact-tropical-cyclones-pacific","page_or_section":"Catalog metadata and Abstract; record created/modified 25 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only"},{"evidence_id":"E0187","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"Météo-France’s 19 June 2026 article describes typical September–April rainfall reductions in New Caledonia, notes deficits in April–May following a wet first quarter, and discusses a dry second-half outlook. Later seasonal bulletins take precedence.","source_title":"El Niño : quels impacts pour la Nouvelle-Calédonie ?","publisher":"Météo-France Nouvelle-Calédonie","publication_date":"2026-06-19","exact_url":"https://meteo.nc/fr/actualites/el-nino-quels-impacts-pour-la-nouvelle-caledonie","page_or_section":"En théorie, quelles sont les conséquences d’un El Niño sur le territoire?; Retour sur ce début d’année; Les prévisions pour les mois à venir","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original dated article body recovered through HTTP despite web-open error. This verifies the June account and local climatology; it does not demonstrate later observed drought, finance or completed preparedness actions. En théorie, quelles sont les conséquences d’un El Niño sur le territoire?; Retour sur ce début d’année; Les prévisions pour les mois à venir"},{"evidence_id":"E0188","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"The May 2026 article describes increased drought risk during El Niño in New Caledonia as a climatological tendency.","source_title":"El Niño : quels impacts sur les territoires d'outre-mer ?","publisher":"Météo-France","publication_date":"2026-05-13","exact_url":"https://meteofrance.com/actualites/el-nino-quels-impacts-sur-les-territoires-doutre-mer","page_or_section":"El Niño : quels seraient les impacts en Nouvelle-Calédonie ? — precipitation/drought bullet","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","source_scope_note":"General ENSO climatology and possible pathways only; no verified2026 impacts, implementation, approval or funding. Portal preparedness recommendations are inference, not source-endorsed actions. Retrieved from the indexed official mobile article dated 13 May; direct endpoint unavailable. This is a text capture, not original HTML.","evidence_kind":"regional_risk_context"},{"evidence_id":"E0189","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"The Pacific RCC portal provides regional climate-monitoring resources; country operational arrangements need separate documentation.","source_title":"Pacific RCC Climate Monitoring Portal","publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/rcc/climate-monitoring","page_or_section":"Climate Monitoring introductory paragraph; undated webpage captured 15 September 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The regional portal documents available climate-monitoring products. It does not verify the profile’s country monitoring implementation, planned strengthening, or absence of an ENSO trigger-action-finance protocol. regional_monitoring_gateway_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0190","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"Météo-France’s August 2026 bulletin favours below-normal rainfall for New Caledonia during September–November 2026. Individual months may differ from the three-month tendency; this is a forecast and does not demonstrate a financed anticipatory-action protocol.","source_title":"Prévision saisonnière pour le trimestre septembre–octobre–novembre 2026","publisher":"Météo-France Nouvelle-Calédonie","publication_date":"2026-08-17","exact_url":"https://meteo.nc/fr/publications/prevision-saisonniere-pour-le-trimestre-septembre-octobre-novembre-2026","page_or_section":"August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The original territorial page is dated 17 August 2026 and links to this exact downloadable bulletin. PDF cover identifies the jurisdiction, August issue and September–November validity, establishing same-issue identity. Only the rainfall text is used; no map-derived percentages inferred. August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart"},{"evidence_id":"E0191","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"Météo-France’s July 2026 territory-wide summary reports rainfall 81% above normal and mean temperature 0.2°C below normal.","source_title":"Bulletin Climatique Mensuel – Juillet 2026","publisher":"Météo-France Nouvelle-Calédonie","publication_date":"2026-08-10","exact_url":"https://meteo.nc/fr/publications/bulletin-climatique-mensuel-juillet-2026","page_or_section":"Territory-scale July summary immediately above Les grandes lignes; precipitation infographic","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The dimmed summary remains readable and was corroborated against the exact July article, primary web text turn128view1 lines 44–48. It reports +81% monthly rainfall and a −0.2°C mean-temperature departure; neither value establishes a 90-day subterritorial status. July 2026 territorial meteorological observations; not current drought impacts or water-service conditions."},{"evidence_id":"E0192","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"Météo-France’s 19 June 2026 article describes typical September–April rainfall reductions in New Caledonia, notes deficits in April–May following a wet first quarter, and discusses a dry second-half outlook. Later seasonal bulletins take precedence.","source_title":"El Niño : quels impacts pour la Nouvelle-Calédonie ?","publisher":"Météo-France Nouvelle-Calédonie","publication_date":"2026-06-19","exact_url":"https://meteo.nc/fr/actualites/el-nino-quels-impacts-pour-la-nouvelle-caledonie","page_or_section":"En théorie, quelles sont les conséquences d’un El Niño sur le territoire?; Retour sur ce début d’année; Les prévisions pour les mois à venir","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original dated article body recovered through HTTP despite web-open error. This verifies the June account and local climatology; it does not demonstrate later observed drought, finance or completed preparedness actions. En théorie, quelles sont les conséquences d’un El Niño sur le territoire?; Retour sur ce début d’année; Les prévisions pour les mois à venir"},{"evidence_id":"E0193","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"","source_title":"Anticipatory Action in Asia-Pacific: Regional Overview","publisher":"Anticipation Hub","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/overview/regions-countries/anticipatory-action-in-asia-pacific","page_or_section":"Countries directory and visible Fiji card; undated overview captured 15 September 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only"},{"evidence_id":"E0194","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"Météo-France’s August 2026 bulletin favours below-normal rainfall for New Caledonia during September–November 2026. Individual months may differ from the three-month tendency; this is a forecast and does not demonstrate a financed anticipatory-action protocol.","source_title":"Prévision saisonnière pour le trimestre septembre–octobre–novembre 2026","publisher":"Météo-France Nouvelle-Calédonie","publication_date":"2026-08-17","exact_url":"https://meteo.nc/fr/publications/prevision-saisonniere-pour-le-trimestre-septembre-octobre-novembre-2026","page_or_section":"August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The original territorial page is dated 17 August 2026 and links to this exact downloadable bulletin. PDF cover identifies the jurisdiction, August issue and September–November validity, establishing same-issue identity. Only the rainfall text is used; no map-derived percentages inferred. August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart"},{"evidence_id":"E0195","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"FAO anticipatory action guidance for El Niño","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://openknowledge.fao.org/bitstreams/a551eb91-d98b-4a4a-931a-49e9533d288e/download","page_or_section":"PDF page 15 (printed page 13): Asia and Pacific drought and flood/cyclone priority actions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Profile actions are portal recommendations. General agricultural preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0196","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"Météo-France’s August 2026 bulletin favours below-normal rainfall for New Caledonia during September–November 2026. Individual months may differ from the three-month tendency; this is a forecast and does not demonstrate a financed anticipatory-action protocol.","source_title":"Prévision saisonnière pour le trimestre septembre–octobre–novembre 2026","publisher":"Météo-France Nouvelle-Calédonie","publication_date":"2026-08-17","exact_url":"https://meteo.nc/fr/publications/prevision-saisonniere-pour-le-trimestre-septembre-octobre-novembre-2026","page_or_section":"August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The original territorial page is dated 17 August 2026 and links to this exact downloadable bulletin. PDF cover identifies the jurisdiction, August issue and September–November validity, establishing same-issue identity. Only the rainfall text is used; no map-derived percentages inferred. This supports a planning recommendation, not proof that the proposed local action is funded or implemented. August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart"},{"evidence_id":"E0197","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"Météo-France’s 19 June 2026 article describes typical September–April rainfall reductions in New Caledonia, notes deficits in April–May following a wet first quarter, and discusses a dry second-half outlook. Later seasonal bulletins take precedence.","source_title":"El Niño : quels impacts pour la Nouvelle-Calédonie ?","publisher":"Météo-France Nouvelle-Calédonie","publication_date":"2026-06-19","exact_url":"https://meteo.nc/fr/actualites/el-nino-quels-impacts-pour-la-nouvelle-caledonie","page_or_section":"En théorie, quelles sont les conséquences d’un El Niño sur le territoire?; Retour sur ce début d’année; Les prévisions pour les mois à venir","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original dated article body recovered through HTTP despite web-open error. This verifies the June account and local climatology; it does not demonstrate later observed drought, finance or completed preparedness actions. This supports a planning recommendation, not proof that the proposed local action is funded or implemented. En théorie, quelles sont les conséquences d’un El Niño sur le territoire?; Retour sur ce début d’année; Les prévisions pour les mois à venir"},{"evidence_id":"E0198","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 8: methods table, Water stress watch and Water stress outlook","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"claim_text is blank and the profile has no triggers_to_monitor field; methods and category definitions were checked. Monitoring guidance, not operational triggers."},{"evidence_id":"E0199","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Pacific RCC Climate Monitoring Portal","publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/rcc/climate-monitoring","page_or_section":"Climate Watches: COSPPac Bulletin, Climate Drivers Update and Island Climate Update descriptions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The source describes monitoring resources but contains no country-specific action or escalation thresholds. The portal’s trigger recommendations are analytical guidance. monitoring_resource_context_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0200","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"Météo-France’s August 2026 bulletin favours below-normal rainfall for New Caledonia during September–November 2026. Individual months may differ from the three-month tendency; this is a forecast and does not demonstrate a financed anticipatory-action protocol.","source_title":"Prévision saisonnière pour le trimestre septembre–octobre–novembre 2026","publisher":"Météo-France Nouvelle-Calédonie","publication_date":"2026-08-17","exact_url":"https://meteo.nc/fr/publications/prevision-saisonniere-pour-le-trimestre-septembre-octobre-novembre-2026","page_or_section":"August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The original territorial page is dated 17 August 2026 and links to this exact downloadable bulletin. PDF cover identifies the jurisdiction, August issue and September–November validity, establishing same-issue identity. Only the rainfall text is used; no map-derived percentages inferred. This supports a planning recommendation, not proof that the proposed local action is funded or implemented. August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart"},{"evidence_id":"E0201","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"For August–October 2026, the source favoured below-normal rainfall across much of the North Island, near/below-normal rainfall in selected eastern/northern regions, and above-normal rainfall in the western South Island.","source_title":"Seasonal Climate Outlook: August–October 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-07-31","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-august-october-2026","page_or_section":"Outlook Summary, rainfall, heavy-rain, groundwater, soil-moisture/river-flow and wind bullets","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"This archived source is valid August–October, whereas the profile’s current rainfall field is September–November. Preserve the historical validity explicitly. Dated August–October forecast and prospective sector risks only; not the later September–November issue."},{"evidence_id":"E0202","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"NIWA’s July 2026 summary describes early-month frosts, heavy rainfall and damaging flooding on 5–9 July, generally wetter South Island areas and drier North Island areas.","source_title":"Monthly Climate Summary: July 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/monthly-climate-summary-july-2026","page_or_section":"July 2026 summary, dated 4 August 2026, Overview paragraphs 1–4 and Rainfall table","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original URL returns 403. Official Monthly archive links directly to the recovered canonical July summary. Heading, 4 August 2026 date and July observations match the original month-level citation. July 2026 summary, dated 4 August 2026, Overview paragraphs 1–4 and Rainfall table"},{"evidence_id":"E0203","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"The 31 July issue discusses regional August–October rainfall differences and strengthening El Niño; its validity period differs from the portal’s September–November classification.","source_title":"Seasonal Climate Outlook: August–October 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-07-31","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-august-october-2026","page_or_section":"Outlook Summary, rainfall, heavy-rain, groundwater, soil-moisture/river-flow and wind bullets","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The displayed issue was published 31 July and is valid August–October 2026. It cannot itself establish the subsequent September–November forecast. Groundwater and sector statements are forecasts, not observed losses. Dated August–October forecast and prospective sector risks only; not the later September–November issue."},{"evidence_id":"E0204","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"El Niño accounts for less than one quarter of year-to-year seasonal rainfall and temperature variance in most New Zealand locations; use the seasonal outlook for current conditions.","source_title":"El Niño and La Niña","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/el-nino-and-la-nina","page_or_section":"The impact of El Niño and La Niña on New Zealand’s climate, closing paragraph (saved capture line 244)","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Full official primary-page text recovered despite direct HTTP 403. This is a climatological limitation, not a current forecast or impact attribution. The impact of El Niño and La Niña on New Zealand’s climate, closing paragraph (saved capture line 244)"},{"evidence_id":"E0205","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"The August–October forecast warned of reduced groundwater recharge in drier regions and a shift of heavy-rain risk toward the western and lower South Island.","source_title":"Seasonal Climate Outlook: August–October 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-07-31","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-august-october-2026","page_or_section":"Outlook Summary, rainfall, heavy-rain, groundwater, soil-moisture/river-flow and wind bullets","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The displayed issue was published 31 July and is valid August–October 2026. It cannot itself establish the subsequent September–November forecast. Groundwater and sector statements are forecasts, not observed losses. Prospective hydrological and sector risk; not realised impacts."},{"evidence_id":"E0206","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"El Niño accounts for less than one quarter of year-to-year seasonal rainfall and temperature variance in most New Zealand locations; use the seasonal outlook for current conditions.","source_title":"El Niño and La Niña","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/el-nino-and-la-nina","page_or_section":"The impact of El Niño and La Niña on New Zealand’s climate, closing paragraph (saved capture line 244)","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Full official primary-page text recovered despite direct HTTP 403. This is a climatological limitation, not a current forecast or impact attribution. The impact of El Niño and La Niña on New Zealand’s climate, closing paragraph (saved capture line 244)"},{"evidence_id":"E0207","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"MPI advises farms to set decision dates, monitor forecasts and fire warnings, plan feed and livestock numbers, budget realistically and prepare for water restrictions. This is published preparedness guidance, not evidence of automatic funding release.","source_title":"Preparing for El Niño","publisher":"New Zealand Ministry for Primary Industries","publication_date":"2026","exact_url":"https://www.mpi.govt.nz/funding-rural-support/adverse-events/preparing-for-el-nino","page_or_section":"What you can do to prepare > Create a plan; Livestock feed for pastoral farmers; Resources and support","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original live fetch returns a challenge/403, but the indexed official primary page exposes the complete substantive guidance sections, saved verbatim with URL and retrieval metadata. Verification relies on this full indexed body, not a title or short search snippet. What you can do to prepare > Create a plan; Livestock feed for pastoral farmers; Resources and support"},{"evidence_id":"E0208","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"Fire and Emergency New Zealand reported starting wildfire preparations earlier than usual and distributing a preparedness checklist to districts ahead of the 2026/27 season.","source_title":"El Niño readiness: preparing early for the wildfire season","publisher":"Fire and Emergency New Zealand","publication_date":"2026","exact_url":"https://portal.fireandemergency.nz/notices-news-and-events/news/el-nino-readiness-preparing-early-for-the-wildfire-season/","page_or_section":"Published 15 July 2026; body paragraphs 1 and 4","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Full official article body and July 2026 date recovered through web text. This confirms the reported readiness activity, not a complete trigger-action-finance protocol or completed preparations in every district. Published 15 July 2026; body paragraphs 1 and 4"},{"evidence_id":"E0209","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"Fire and Emergency New Zealand’s August update reports early readiness workshops, forecast and fuel monitoring, operational reviews and coordination with partner agencies.","source_title":"Preparing for the season ahead: what we're doing and why","publisher":"Fire and Emergency New Zealand","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://portal.fireandemergency.nz/notices-news-and-events/news/preparing-for-the-season-ahead-what-were-doing-and-why/","page_or_section":"25 August 2026 update > What we are doing about it","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Full official article body recovered with last-modified date 25 August 2026; the account describes its readiness programme, not effectiveness or avoided impacts. 25 August 2026 update > What we are doing about it"},{"evidence_id":"E0210","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"MPI assesses adverse events using preparedness options, physical magnitude and community coping capacity, then advises on the event’s scale before Government decides support.","source_title":"How we classify adverse events","publisher":"New Zealand Ministry for Primary Industries","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.mpi.govt.nz/funding-rural-support/adverse-events/how-we-classify-adverse-events","page_or_section":"How MPI assesses events, three assessment criteria and Government-support decision paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"MPI lists preparedness options, event magnitude and community coping capacity as assessment criteria, followed by consultation and a government support decision. The page does not specify automatic release from an ENSO forecast threshold. Impact/capacity assessment and support-decision process; not automatic ENSO-triggered finance."},{"evidence_id":"E0211","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"MPI advises farms to set decision dates, monitor forecasts and fire warnings, plan feed and livestock numbers, budget realistically and prepare for water restrictions. This is published preparedness guidance, not evidence of automatic funding release.","source_title":"Preparing for El Niño","publisher":"New Zealand Ministry for Primary Industries","publication_date":"2026","exact_url":"https://www.mpi.govt.nz/funding-rural-support/adverse-events/preparing-for-el-nino","page_or_section":"What you can do to prepare > Create a plan; Livestock feed for pastoral farmers; Resources and support","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original live fetch returns a challenge/403, but the indexed official primary page exposes the complete substantive guidance sections, saved verbatim with URL and retrieval metadata. Verification relies on this full indexed body, not a title or short search snippet. What you can do to prepare > Create a plan; Livestock feed for pastoral farmers; Resources and support"},{"evidence_id":"E0212","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"Fire and Emergency New Zealand reported starting wildfire preparations earlier than usual and distributing a preparedness checklist to districts ahead of the 2026/27 season.","source_title":"El Niño readiness: preparing early for the wildfire season","publisher":"Fire and Emergency New Zealand","publication_date":"2026","exact_url":"https://portal.fireandemergency.nz/notices-news-and-events/news/el-nino-readiness-preparing-early-for-the-wildfire-season/","page_or_section":"Published 15 July 2026; body paragraphs 1 and 4","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Full official article body and July 2026 date recovered through web text. This confirms the reported readiness activity, not a complete trigger-action-finance protocol or completed preparations in every district. Published 15 July 2026; body paragraphs 1 and 4"},{"evidence_id":"E0213","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"MPI assesses adverse events using preparedness options, physical magnitude and community coping capacity, then advises on the event’s scale before Government decides support.","source_title":"How we classify adverse events","publisher":"New Zealand Ministry for Primary Industries","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.mpi.govt.nz/funding-rural-support/adverse-events/how-we-classify-adverse-events","page_or_section":"How MPI assesses events, three assessment criteria and Government-support decision paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"MPI lists preparedness options, event magnitude and community coping capacity as assessment criteria, followed by consultation and a government support decision. The page does not specify automatic release from an ENSO forecast threshold. Impact/capacity assessment and support-decision process; not automatic ENSO-triggered finance."},{"evidence_id":"E0214","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"Portal recommendation informed by Outlook Summary, rainfall, heavy-rain, groundwater, soil-moisture/river-flow and wind bullets.","source_title":"Seasonal Climate Outlook: August–October 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-07-31","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-august-october-2026","page_or_section":"Outlook Summary, rainfall, heavy-rain, groundwater, soil-moisture/river-flow and wind bullets","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The cited passage informs the portal recommendation; it does not establish that the proposed action, threshold or financing arrangement has been adopted. Analytical preparedness guidance, not evidence of completed measures or an adopted trigger."},{"evidence_id":"E0215","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"MPI advises farms to set decision dates, monitor forecasts and fire warnings, plan feed and livestock numbers, budget realistically and prepare for water restrictions. This is published preparedness guidance, not evidence of automatic funding release.","source_title":"Preparing for El Niño","publisher":"New Zealand Ministry for Primary Industries","publication_date":"2026","exact_url":"https://www.mpi.govt.nz/funding-rural-support/adverse-events/preparing-for-el-nino","page_or_section":"What you can do to prepare > Create a plan; Livestock feed for pastoral farmers; Resources and support","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original live fetch returns a challenge/403, but the indexed official primary page exposes the complete substantive guidance sections, saved verbatim with URL and retrieval metadata. Verification relies on this full indexed body, not a title or short search snippet. This supports a planning recommendation, not proof that the proposed local action is funded or implemented. What you can do to prepare > Create a plan; Livestock feed for pastoral farmers; Resources and support"},{"evidence_id":"E0216","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"Fire and Emergency New Zealand reported starting wildfire preparations earlier than usual and distributing a preparedness checklist to districts ahead of the 2026/27 season.","source_title":"El Niño readiness: preparing early for the wildfire season","publisher":"Fire and Emergency New Zealand","publication_date":"2026","exact_url":"https://portal.fireandemergency.nz/notices-news-and-events/news/el-nino-readiness-preparing-early-for-the-wildfire-season/","page_or_section":"Published 15 July 2026; body paragraphs 1 and 4","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Full official article body and July 2026 date recovered through web text. This confirms the reported readiness activity, not a complete trigger-action-finance protocol or completed preparations in every district. This supports a planning recommendation, not proof that the proposed local action is funded or implemented. Published 15 July 2026; body paragraphs 1 and 4"},{"evidence_id":"E0217","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"Get Ready directs people experiencing drought to their local council and MPI resources, and identifies MPI as responsible for drought classification; fire-safety advice is provided separately.","source_title":"Other hazards: drought and wildfire preparedness","publisher":"New Zealand National Emergency Management Agency","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://getready.govt.nz/emergency/other-hazards","page_or_section":"Other hazards > Drought; Fire","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Official guidance page recovered. It describes responsibilities and advice, not a current drought declaration or implemented local action. This supports a planning recommendation, not proof that the proposed local action is funded or implemented. Other hazards > Drought; Fire"},{"evidence_id":"E0218","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"Portal recommendation informed by Outlook Summary, rainfall, heavy-rain, groundwater, soil-moisture/river-flow and wind bullets.","source_title":"Seasonal Climate Outlook: August–October 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-07-31","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-august-october-2026","page_or_section":"Outlook Summary, rainfall, heavy-rain, groundwater, soil-moisture/river-flow and wind bullets","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The cited passage informs the portal recommendation; it does not establish that the proposed action, threshold or financing arrangement has been adopted. Analytical preparedness guidance, not evidence of completed measures or an adopted trigger."},{"evidence_id":"E0219","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"MPI advises farms to set decision dates, monitor forecasts and fire warnings, plan feed and livestock numbers, budget realistically and prepare for water restrictions. This is published preparedness guidance, not evidence of automatic funding release.","source_title":"Preparing for El Niño","publisher":"New Zealand Ministry for Primary Industries","publication_date":"2026","exact_url":"https://www.mpi.govt.nz/funding-rural-support/adverse-events/preparing-for-el-nino","page_or_section":"What you can do to prepare > Create a plan; Livestock feed for pastoral farmers; Resources and support","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original live fetch returns a challenge/403, but the indexed official primary page exposes the complete substantive guidance sections, saved verbatim with URL and retrieval metadata. Verification relies on this full indexed body, not a title or short search snippet. This supports a planning recommendation, not proof that the proposed local action is funded or implemented. What you can do to prepare > Create a plan; Livestock feed for pastoral farmers; Resources and support"},{"evidence_id":"E0220","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"Fire and Emergency New Zealand reported starting wildfire preparations earlier than usual and distributing a preparedness checklist to districts ahead of the 2026/27 season.","source_title":"El Niño readiness: preparing early for the wildfire season","publisher":"Fire and Emergency New Zealand","publication_date":"2026","exact_url":"https://portal.fireandemergency.nz/notices-news-and-events/news/el-nino-readiness-preparing-early-for-the-wildfire-season/","page_or_section":"Published 15 July 2026; body paragraphs 1 and 4","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Full official article body and July 2026 date recovered through web text. This confirms the reported readiness activity, not a complete trigger-action-finance protocol or completed preparations in every district. This supports a planning recommendation, not proof that the proposed local action is funded or implemented. Published 15 July 2026; body paragraphs 1 and 4"},{"evidence_id":"E0221","profile_id":"niue","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Rainfall outlook map and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0222","profile_id":"niue","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"The saved official page displayed a Drought Blue Alert banner when captured on 15 September 2026; the banner’s start date is not established here.","source_title":"Niue Tropical Cyclone Season 2025–2026 Summary","publisher":"Government of Niue","publication_date":"2026-06-11","exact_url":"https://www.gov.nu/media-releases/niue-tropical-cyclone-season-2025-2026-summary","page_or_section":"Site-wide Drought Blue Alert banner; Pacific Seasonal Climate Outlook for the Next 3–6 months section","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"A site-wide banner reports Blue Alert at capture time; no banner issue date is shown, so the earlier-cutoff assertion is not verified by this article. Capture-time alert metadata; not earlier-cutoff conditions or rainfall measurements."},{"evidence_id":"E0223","profile_id":"niue","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Forecast maps and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0224","profile_id":"niue","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"SPREP’s 13 June 2026 statement placed the typical El Niño South Pacific cyclone-genesis shift closer to Samoa, Niue and the Cook Islands; this is regional context rather than a 2026–27 country cyclone forecast.","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: western/central-eastern rainfall contrast; cyclone-genesis paragraphs; short heavy-rain caveat","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The regional climate passage is verified, but most of the current country spatial note comes from other issues or is portal analysis. Only the narrowed context statement is supported by this citation. regional_climate_context_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0225","profile_id":"niue","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: regional drought/rainfall and cyclone-genesis context","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article supplies regional hazard context, not evidence of the specific water, crop, health, energy, fisheries, cost or infrastructure effects listed for Niue. analytical_risk_context_only; no_local_observed_impact_verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0226","profile_id":"niue","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and health in the Pacific","publisher":"World Health Organization Western Pacific","publication_date":"2015-07-16","exact_url":"https://www.who.int/westernpacific/about/how-we-work/pacific-support/news/detail/16-07-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-health-in-the-pacific","page_or_section":"Historical pathway evidence; use for preparedness design, not as evidence of current 2026 impacts.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0227","profile_id":"niue","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Supports gendered impact pathways and inclusive anticipatory actions; its Pacific country grouping is incomplete and should not be used as the sole rainfall matrix.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0228","profile_id":"niue","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"Niue’s 11 June 2026 cyclone-season summary warned that El Niño could bring drier conditions in the second half of the year and urged early preparation.","source_title":"Niue Tropical Cyclone Season 2025–2026 Summary","publisher":"Government of Niue","publication_date":"2026-06-11","exact_url":"https://www.gov.nu/media-releases/niue-tropical-cyclone-season-2025-2026-summary","page_or_section":"Site-wide Drought Blue Alert banner; Pacific Seasonal Climate Outlook for the Next 3–6 months section","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article is dated 11 June 2026 and recommends early preparation for possible dry conditions. The Blue Alert is a site-wide banner visible at the 15 September capture, not an independently dated statement proving alert status at the earlier cutoff. Dated preparedness advice; banner status only at capture time, without proof of trigger finance."},{"evidence_id":"E0229","profile_id":"niue","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"SPREP reports that Niue’s first National Climate Outlook Forum brought government sectors together with the Niue Meteorological Service to review El Niño outlooks and develop preparedness plans. This demonstrates coordination, not a completed financed drought protocol.","source_title":"El Niño preparedness takes centre stage at Niue’s first National Climate Outlook Forum","publisher":"SPREP / Niue Meteorological Service","publication_date":"2026","exact_url":"https://www.sprep.org/news/el-nino-preparedness-takes-centre-stage-at-niues-first-national-climate-outlook-forum","page_or_section":"21 August 2026 article, opening three paragraphs; ENSO Directive pilot section","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Live official article is 403. The indexed official primary article supplies substantial body paragraphs, event date and full programme context, saved as a source capture. No claim is inferred from title/snippet alone. 21 August 2026 article, opening three paragraphs; ENSO Directive pilot section"},{"evidence_id":"E0230","profile_id":"niue","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"Niue’s 11 June 2026 cyclone-season summary warned that El Niño could bring drier conditions in the second half of the year and urged early preparation.","source_title":"Niue Tropical Cyclone Season 2025–2026 Summary","publisher":"Government of Niue","publication_date":"2026-06-11","exact_url":"https://www.gov.nu/media-releases/niue-tropical-cyclone-season-2025-2026-summary","page_or_section":"Site-wide Drought Blue Alert banner; Pacific Seasonal Climate Outlook for the Next 3–6 months section","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article is dated 11 June 2026 and recommends early preparation for possible dry conditions. The Blue Alert is a site-wide banner visible at the 15 September capture, not an independently dated statement proving alert status at the earlier cutoff. Dated preparedness advice; banner status only at capture time, without proof of trigger finance."},{"evidence_id":"E0231","profile_id":"niue","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"SPREP reports that Niue’s first National Climate Outlook Forum brought government sectors together with the Niue Meteorological Service to review El Niño outlooks and develop preparedness plans. This demonstrates coordination, not a completed financed drought protocol.","source_title":"El Niño preparedness takes centre stage at Niue’s first National Climate Outlook Forum","publisher":"SPREP / Niue Meteorological Service","publication_date":"2026","exact_url":"https://www.sprep.org/news/el-nino-preparedness-takes-centre-stage-at-niues-first-national-climate-outlook-forum","page_or_section":"21 August 2026 article, opening three paragraphs; ENSO Directive pilot section","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Live official article is 403. The indexed official primary article supplies substantial body paragraphs, event date and full programme context, saved as a source capture. No claim is inferred from title/snippet alone. 21 August 2026 article, opening three paragraphs; ENSO Directive pilot section"},{"evidence_id":"E0232","profile_id":"niue","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"FAO anticipatory action guidance for El Niño","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://openknowledge.fao.org/bitstreams/a551eb91-d98b-4a4a-931a-49e9533d288e/download","page_or_section":"PDF page 15 (printed page 13): Asia and Pacific drought and flood/cyclone priority actions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Profile actions are portal recommendations. General agricultural preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0233","profile_id":"niue","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"13 June 2026: broad water-management planning advice and National Meteorological Services paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The detailed action list for Niue is a portal recommendation. Only broad water planning and use of national-service advice appear in the source. broad_source_guidance_only; detailed_actions_and_triggers_are_portal_analysis"},{"evidence_id":"E0234","profile_id":"niue","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0235","profile_id":"niue","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 8: methods table, Water stress watch and Water stress outlook","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"claim_text is blank and the profile has no triggers_to_monitor field; methods and category definitions were checked. Monitoring guidance, not operational triggers."},{"evidence_id":"E0236","profile_id":"niue","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"Portal recommendation informed by Site-wide Drought Blue Alert banner; Pacific Seasonal Climate Outlook for the Next 3–6 months section.","source_title":"Niue Tropical Cyclone Season 2025–2026 Summary","publisher":"Government of Niue","publication_date":"2026-06-11","exact_url":"https://www.gov.nu/media-releases/niue-tropical-cyclone-season-2025-2026-summary","page_or_section":"Site-wide Drought Blue Alert banner; Pacific Seasonal Climate Outlook for the Next 3–6 months section","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The cited passage informs the portal recommendation; it does not establish that the proposed action, threshold or financing arrangement has been adopted. Analytical preparedness guidance, not evidence of completed measures or an adopted trigger."},{"evidence_id":"E0237","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Rainfall outlook map and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0238","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"","source_title":"NOAA NMME seasonal precipitation probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pacdir/NMME1dir/prob_ensemble_prate_usapi_season1.png","page_or_section":"August 2026 initialization, lead 1: September–November precipitation-probability map","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending original issue; numerical probability not verified","source_scope_note":"For southern CNMI, the earlier portal entry attributed approximately 50% probability of below-normal SON 2026 rainfall to the NOAA August USAPI map; that original issue has not been recovered. The reviewed NOAA global map (IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026) shows an approximately 60% below-normal category in the nearby coarse grid. These are different products, not precise island probabilities or two independently verified conflicting originals. The portal uses the traceable global map for the dry direction and retains the legacy value for comparison."},{"evidence_id":"E0239","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"The Marianas remained free of drought or abnormal dryness in the 27 August 2026 release; Saipan received 1.70 inches, Tinian at least 2.97 inches and Rota 2.36 inches.","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor – U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publisher":"NDMC / NOAA / USDA / NASA","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260825.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section, northern-mariana-islands paragraph; release 27 August 2026, valid 25 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact archived jurisdiction paragraph is legible and agrees with the primary archived text. The current profile has later observations which this August citation cannot verify. direct_historical_monitoring_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0240","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"The U.S. Drought Monitor valid 25 August 2026 showed Saipan, Tinian and Rota without drought or abnormal dryness.","source_title":"U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands drought map, valid 25 August 2026","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center / NOAA / USDA / NASA","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pdf/20260825/20260825_usdm_pg2.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 1: dated island symbols with drought and duration legends","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The dated map and its legend were visually checked; the live profile now concerns a later monitoring week. 25 August 2026 island-level drought classification only."},{"evidence_id":"E0241","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Forecast maps and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0242","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"NOAA NMME seasonal precipitation probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pacdir/NMME1dir/prob_ensemble_prate_usapi_season1.png","page_or_section":"Coarse-grid September–November precipitation-probability map","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending original issue; numerical probability not verified","source_scope_note":"For southern CNMI, the earlier portal entry attributed approximately 50% probability of below-normal SON 2026 rainfall to the NOAA August USAPI map; that original issue has not been recovered. The reviewed NOAA global map (IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026) shows an approximately 60% below-normal category in the nearby coarse grid. These are different products, not precise island probabilities or two independently verified conflicting originals. The portal uses the traceable global map for the dry direction and retains the legacy value for comparison."},{"evidence_id":"E0243","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"NOAA NMME seasonal 2-metre temperature probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pacdir/NMME1dir/prob_ensemble_tmp2m_usapi_season1.png","page_or_section":"Coarse-grid September–November 2-metre temperature-probability map","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending original regional issue; alternative context only","source_scope_note":"The exact August 2026 USAPI graphic is still missing. Official archive regional files displaying June 2021 initialization were rejected. A separately labelled global graphic of the same initialization corroborates the broad category; original-image recovery remains outstanding."},{"evidence_id":"E0244","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"2026 Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publisher":"NOAA National Weather Service Guam","publication_date":"2026-06-05","exact_url":"https://weather.gov/media/gum/2026_Western_North_Pacific_Tropical_Cyclone_Outlook_for_the_U.S._Affiliated_Pacific_Islands.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 2: intensification narrative and June–December regional TC table; PDF page 3: outlook limits and year-round preparedness guidance","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The source supports prospective cyclone risk in the impacts list, not the full drought/heat list or observed effects. Potential cyclone impacts only."},{"evidence_id":"E0245","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and its impacts on Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands","publisher":"NOAA / National Integrated Drought Information System / Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.weather.gov/media/peac/one_pagers/El%20Nino%20Impacts%20on%20Guam%20and%20the%20CNMI.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 2: drought-preparedness impact bullets","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The source describes potential water, crop, ecosystem, health and wildfire effects during El Niño. Climatological risk context only."},{"evidence_id":"E0246","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"The CNMI’s 2018 mitigation plan describes drought risks from limited freshwater storage and delivery and from depletion or saltwater contamination of smaller freshwater lenses.","source_title":"2018 Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Standard State Mitigation Plan","publisher":"CNMI Homeland Security and Emergency Management / Office of Planning and Development","publication_date":"2018","exact_url":"https://opd.gov.mp/library/reports/2018-cnmi-ssmp-update.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 102 / printed p. 98, Drought Profile: Potential Impacts","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Historical vulnerability baseline; no current drought observation."},{"evidence_id":"E0247","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"NWS Guam, with JTWC and RSMC Tokyo, monitors weather across the Marianas and Micronesia for tropical-cyclone forecasts.","source_title":"2026 Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publisher":"NOAA National Weather Service Guam","publication_date":"2026-06-05","exact_url":"https://weather.gov/media/gum/2026_Western_North_Pacific_Tropical_Cyclone_Outlook_for_the_U.S._Affiliated_Pacific_Islands.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 4: NWS/JTWC/RSMC monitoring arrangements","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The positive monitoring-capability statement is supported; non-existence of an ENSO protocol is not established by this document. Operational cyclone monitoring only."},{"evidence_id":"E0248","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor – U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publisher":"NDMC / NOAA / USDA / NASA","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260825.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section, northern-mariana-islands paragraph; release 27 August 2026, valid 25 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only"},{"evidence_id":"E0249","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"The 2018 CNMI plan carries a recommendation to develop drought mitigation planning covering water demand and supply, shortage measures, coordination and costs; the passage says that plan had not been developed as of the 2014 update.","source_title":"2018 Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Standard State Mitigation Plan","publisher":"CNMI Homeland Security and Emergency Management / Office of Planning and Development","publication_date":"2018","exact_url":"https://opd.gov.mp/library/reports/2018-cnmi-ssmp-update.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 132 / printed p. 128, section 6.7 Drought Loss Estimate, final two paragraphs; PDF p. 133 / printed p. 129, opening paragraph continuing section 6.7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. A historical planning recommendation and dated implementation gap, not an operational 2026 drought protocol."},{"evidence_id":"E0250","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"CNMI’s official planning archive lists state mitigation plans and a catastrophic-typhoon response plan among HSEM publications.","source_title":"Homeland Security and Emergency Management planning archive","publisher":"CNMI Office of Planning and Development","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://opd.gov.mp/library/agency/homeland-security-and-emergency-management.html","page_or_section":"Agency description and Publications archive, mitigation/typhoon plan entries","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The archive identifies publicly linked planning documents. It does not expose those plans’ trigger, action, authority or financing content. Institutional/publication metadata only; no operational drought framework verification."},{"evidence_id":"E0251","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"The CNMI plan provides a drought vulnerability and planning baseline, including a gap explicitly dated to the 2014 update; it cannot determine current trigger-linked financing status.","source_title":"2018 Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Standard State Mitigation Plan","publisher":"CNMI Homeland Security and Emergency Management / Office of Planning and Development","publication_date":"2018","exact_url":"https://opd.gov.mp/library/reports/2018-cnmi-ssmp-update.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 132 / printed p. 128, section 6.7 Drought Loss Estimate, final two paragraphs; PDF p. 133 / printed p. 129, opening paragraph continuing section 6.7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The historical passage does not verify the portal’s current maturity classification. Portal maturity assessment; no inference of current absence from historical silence."},{"evidence_id":"E0252","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"CNMI’s official planning archive lists state mitigation plans and a catastrophic-typhoon response plan among HSEM publications.","source_title":"Homeland Security and Emergency Management planning archive","publisher":"CNMI Office of Planning and Development","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://opd.gov.mp/library/agency/homeland-security-and-emergency-management.html","page_or_section":"Agency description and Publications archive, mitigation/typhoon plan entries","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The archive identifies publicly linked planning documents. It does not expose those plans’ trigger, action, authority or financing content. Institutional/publication metadata only; no operational drought framework verification."},{"evidence_id":"E0253","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"FAO anticipatory action guidance for El Niño","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://openknowledge.fao.org/bitstreams/a551eb91-d98b-4a4a-931a-49e9533d288e/download","page_or_section":"PDF page 15 (printed page 13): Asia and Pacific drought and flood/cyclone priority actions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Profile actions are portal recommendations. General agricultural preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0254","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and its impacts on Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands","publisher":"NOAA / National Integrated Drought Information System / Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.weather.gov/media/peac/one_pagers/El%20Nino%20Impacts%20on%20Guam%20and%20the%20CNMI.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 2: Weather Ready Tips and rainwater catchment guidance","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The source offers preparedness tips; it does not document implementation of the profile’s action package. General water/crop preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0255","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"The portal recommends checking water-storage, supply and drought contingency arrangements using the CNMI plan’s freshwater-risk assessment and planning recommendations as background.","source_title":"2018 Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Standard State Mitigation Plan","publisher":"CNMI Homeland Security and Emergency Management / Office of Planning and Development","publication_date":"2018","exact_url":"https://opd.gov.mp/library/reports/2018-cnmi-ssmp-update.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 102 / printed p. 98, Drought Profile: Potential Impacts; PDF p. 132 / printed p. 128, section 6.7 Drought Loss Estimate, final two paragraphs","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The source supplies the risk/planning basis rather than a current instruction to activate these actions. Analytical preparedness recommendation."},{"evidence_id":"E0256","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"2026 Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publisher":"NOAA National Weather Service Guam","publication_date":"2026-06-05","exact_url":"https://weather.gov/media/gum/2026_Western_North_Pacific_Tropical_Cyclone_Outlook_for_the_U.S._Affiliated_Pacific_Islands.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 3: outlook limits and year-round preparedness guidance","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"claim_text and profile trigger field are absent; source advises preparedness and forecast monitoring. Preparedness guidance only."},{"evidence_id":"E0257","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor – U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publisher":"NDMC / NOAA / USDA / NASA","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260825.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section, northern-mariana-islands paragraph; release 27 August 2026, valid 25 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The archived drought class can inform an analyst recommendation, but this paragraph specifies no agreed local escalation threshold, action authority or financing release. portal_monitoring_recommendation_informed_by_historical_observations"},{"evidence_id":"E0258","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"NOAA NMME seasonal precipitation probability forecast for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, August 2026 initialization, lead 1","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pacdir/NMME1dir/prob_ensemble_prate_usapi_season1.png","page_or_section":"Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending original issue; numerical probability not verified","source_scope_note":"For southern CNMI, the earlier portal entry attributed approximately 50% probability of below-normal SON 2026 rainfall to the NOAA August USAPI map; that original issue has not been recovered. The reviewed NOAA global map (IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026) shows an approximately 60% below-normal category in the nearby coarse grid. These are different products, not precise island probabilities or two independently verified conflicting originals. The portal uses the traceable global map for the dry direction and retains the legacy value for comparison."},{"evidence_id":"E0259","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Rainfall outlook map and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0261","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"Palau retained short-term abnormal dryness; reported weekly rainfall was 2.09 and 3.43 inches in the 27 August 2026 release.","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor – U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publisher":"NDMC / NOAA / USDA / NASA","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260825.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section, palau paragraph; release 27 August 2026, valid 25 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact archived jurisdiction paragraph is legible and agrees with the primary archived text. The current profile has later observations which this August citation cannot verify. direct_historical_monitoring_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0262","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Forecast maps and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0263","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"Regional context from SPREP, 13 June 2026: El Niño tends to shift cyclone genesis eastward, and short heavy-rain episodes can occur within a dry western-Pacific seasonal pattern. Country-specific outlook details require separate dated sources.","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: western/central-eastern rainfall contrast; cyclone-genesis paragraphs; short heavy-rain caveat","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The regional climate passage is verified, but most of the current country spatial note comes from other issues or is portal analysis. Only the narrowed context statement is supported by this citation. regional_climate_context_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0264","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: regional drought/rainfall and cyclone-genesis context","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article supplies regional hazard context, not evidence of the specific water, crop, health, energy, fisheries, cost or infrastructure effects listed for Palau. analytical_risk_context_only; no_local_observed_impact_verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0265","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and health in the Pacific","publisher":"World Health Organization Western Pacific","publication_date":"2015-07-16","exact_url":"https://www.who.int/westernpacific/about/how-we-work/pacific-support/news/detail/16-07-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-health-in-the-pacific","page_or_section":"Historical pathway evidence; use for preparedness design, not as evidence of current 2026 impacts.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0266","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Supports gendered impact pathways and inclusive anticipatory actions; its Pacific country grouping is incomplete and should not be used as the sole rainfall matrix.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0268","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"Palau’s April 2016 response plan records NEC/PPUC measures to restore wells, truck water and establish distribution facilities, including deliveries for identified vulnerable households.","source_title":"El Niño Response Plan 2016","publisher":"Government of Palau","publication_date":"2016","exact_url":"https://palaugov.pw/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/EL-NINO-Response-Plan-2016.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 9 / printed p. 8, Response to Date: augmentation of available water supply; PDF p. 10 / printed p. 9, Developing an Emergency Water Distribution System","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Historical 2016 emergency response; present activation and roles require separate confirmation."},{"evidence_id":"E0269","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor – U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publisher":"NDMC / NOAA / USDA / NASA","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260825.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section, palau paragraph; release 27 August 2026, valid 25 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only"},{"evidence_id":"E0270","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"Palau’s 2016 plan describes emergency water operations and a proposed response budget of $3,156,800; those historical arrangements do not establish a current forecast-triggered financing protocol.","source_title":"El Niño Response Plan 2016","publisher":"Government of Palau","publication_date":"2016","exact_url":"https://palaugov.pw/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/EL-NINO-Response-Plan-2016.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 9 / printed p. 8, Response to Date: augmentation of available water supply; PDF p. 15 / printed p. 14, Financing: summary budget","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The plan verifies historical response design but cannot settle the portal’s current anticipatory-action maturity judgement. Historical response architecture and budget only."},{"evidence_id":"E0271","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"Anticipation Hub’s captured Palau directory records zero active frameworks and activations while describing national framework development beginning in 2025.","source_title":"Anticipatory Action country profile: Palau","publisher":"Anticipation Hub","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/countries/palau","page_or_section":"Anticipatory action in Palau dashboard and Frameworks and activations counts","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The captured directory lists zero active frameworks/activations and says national framework development began in 2025. This is directory coverage, not proof that no national preparedness arrangements exist. Directory-recorded maturity only; no exhaustive national absence or funding claim."},{"evidence_id":"E0272","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"OCHA’s 11 June 2025 Palau scoping page describes development around forecast triggers, pre-agreed activities and pre-arranged financing using existing national structures.","source_title":"National Anticipatory Action Framework for Palau: Scope Analysis Report and Next Steps","publisher":"OCHA / UNDRR / Palau partners","publication_date":"2025-06-11","exact_url":"https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/palau/national-anticipatory-action-framework-palau-scope-analysis-report-and-next-steps","page_or_section":"Background: Anticipatory Action, especially final Palau paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The page describes how Palau could develop anticipatory action using existing structures and three building blocks. It does not claim an operational financed framework is already active. Scoping/design principles only; no operational approval, financing release or activation."},{"evidence_id":"E0273","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"FAO anticipatory action guidance for El Niño","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://openknowledge.fao.org/bitstreams/a551eb91-d98b-4a4a-931a-49e9533d288e/download","page_or_section":"PDF page 15 (printed page 13): Asia and Pacific drought and flood/cyclone priority actions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Profile actions are portal recommendations. General agricultural preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0274","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"13 June 2026: broad water-management planning advice and National Meteorological Services paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The detailed action list for Palau is a portal recommendation. Only broad water planning and use of national-service advice appear in the source. broad_source_guidance_only; detailed_actions_and_triggers_are_portal_analysis"},{"evidence_id":"E0275","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0276","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 8: methods table, Water stress watch and Water stress outlook","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"claim_text is blank and the profile has no triggers_to_monitor field; methods and category definitions were checked. Monitoring guidance, not operational triggers."},{"evidence_id":"E0277","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor – U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publisher":"NDMC / NOAA / USDA / NASA","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260825.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section, palau paragraph; release 27 August 2026, valid 25 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The archived drought class can inform an analyst recommendation, but this paragraph specifies no agreed local escalation threshold, action authority or financing release. portal_monitoring_recommendation_informed_by_historical_observations"},{"evidence_id":"E0278","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Rainfall outlook map and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0279","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"historical_forecast","claim_text":"The regional climate-watch map for 29 August–11 September 2026 shows no watch for Papua New Guinea. This historical watch status is not an observation of rainfall, drought or impacts.","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch, 27 August 2026, Issue 1","publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-08/Regional-Climate-Watch-27-08-2026-issue1.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 2; Regional Climate Watch issued 27 August 2026, valid 29 August–11 September 2026","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","evidence_kind":"forecast","source_scope_note":"The original source does not support the previous Papua New Guinea observed-dryness or impact association. The relevant EEZ is shown with the map’s no-watch convention, which is not proof of normal rainfall, absence of drought or absence of impacts.","valid_from":"2026-08-29","valid_to":"2026-09-11"},{"evidence_id":"E0280","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"On 22 June 2026, Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister directed provinces and districts to prepare localized dry-season responses and requested a coordinated national strategy within two weeks.","source_title":"Prime Minister directs nationwide preparedness as El Niño threatens prolonged dry season","publisher":"Government of Papua New Guinea","publication_date":"2026-06-22","exact_url":"https://www.pmnec.gov.pg/prime-minister-marape-directs-nationwide-preparedness-as-el-nino-threatens-prolonged-dry-season/","page_or_section":"Article body dated 22 June 2026: provincial/district preparation, two-week strategy request, and immediate preparedness focus","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The original dated article directs local preparedness and requests a national strategy. Cabinet was examining financial/administrative arrangements; the source does not establish a finalized strategy, approved new allocation or completed implementation. Official preparedness direction and strategy request; no finalized action protocol, disbursement or completed response."},{"evidence_id":"E0281","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"On 26 August 2026, PNG’s Prime Minister said a supplementary budget to strengthen El Niño response was expected to be tabled the following week and remained under Cabinet consideration.","source_title":"Prime Minister confirms supplementary budget to address El Niño response","publisher":"Government of Papua New Guinea","publication_date":"2026-08-26","exact_url":"https://www.pmnec.gov.pg/prime-minister-marape-confirms-supplementary-budget-to-address-el-nino-response/","page_or_section":"26 August 2026 article, opening paragraph and Cabinet-status paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original dated article recovered. This is a proposed budget, not evidence of approval, funds released, expenditure or delivered assistance. 26 August 2026 article, opening paragraph and Cabinet-status paragraph"},{"evidence_id":"E0282","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Forecast maps and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0283","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"Regional context from SPREP, 13 June 2026: El Niño tends to shift cyclone genesis eastward, and short heavy-rain episodes can occur within a dry western-Pacific seasonal pattern. Country-specific outlook details require separate dated sources.","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: western/central-eastern rainfall contrast; cyclone-genesis paragraphs; short heavy-rain caveat","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The regional climate passage is verified, but most of the current country spatial note comes from other issues or is portal analysis. Only the narrowed context statement is supported by this citation. regional_climate_context_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0284","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: regional drought/rainfall and cyclone-genesis context","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article supplies regional hazard context, not evidence of the specific water, crop, health, energy, fisheries, cost or infrastructure effects listed for Papua New Guinea. analytical_risk_context_only; no_local_observed_impact_verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0285","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and health in the Pacific","publisher":"World Health Organization Western Pacific","publication_date":"2015-07-16","exact_url":"https://www.who.int/westernpacific/about/how-we-work/pacific-support/news/detail/16-07-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-health-in-the-pacific","page_or_section":"Historical pathway evidence; use for preparedness design, not as evidence of current 2026 impacts.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0286","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Supports gendered impact pathways and inclusive anticipatory actions; its Pacific country grouping is incomplete and should not be used as the sole rainfall matrix.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0287","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"On 22 June 2026, Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister directed provinces and districts to prepare localized dry-season responses and requested a coordinated national strategy within two weeks.","source_title":"Prime Minister directs nationwide preparedness as El Niño threatens prolonged dry season","publisher":"Government of Papua New Guinea","publication_date":"2026-06-22","exact_url":"https://www.pmnec.gov.pg/prime-minister-marape-directs-nationwide-preparedness-as-el-nino-threatens-prolonged-dry-season/","page_or_section":"Article body dated 22 June 2026: provincial/district preparation, two-week strategy request, and immediate preparedness focus","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The original dated article directs local preparedness and requests a national strategy. Cabinet was examining financial/administrative arrangements; the source does not establish a finalized strategy, approved new allocation or completed implementation. Official preparedness direction and strategy request; no finalized action protocol, disbursement or completed response."},{"evidence_id":"E0288","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"On 26 August 2026, PNG’s Prime Minister said a supplementary budget to strengthen El Niño response was expected to be tabled the following week and remained under Cabinet consideration.","source_title":"Prime Minister confirms supplementary budget to address El Niño response","publisher":"Government of Papua New Guinea","publication_date":"2026-08-26","exact_url":"https://www.pmnec.gov.pg/prime-minister-marape-confirms-supplementary-budget-to-address-el-nino-response/","page_or_section":"26 August 2026 article, opening paragraph and Cabinet-status paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original dated article recovered. This is a proposed budget, not evidence of approval, funds released, expenditure or delivered assistance. 26 August 2026 article, opening paragraph and Cabinet-status paragraph"},{"evidence_id":"E0289","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"Anticipation Hub’s captured PNG directory lists zero active frameworks, one activation, and a drought framework under development.","source_title":"Anticipatory Action country profile: Papua New Guinea","publisher":"Anticipation Hub","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/countries/papua-new-guinea","page_or_section":"Anticipatory action dashboard; Frameworks and activations table","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The saved directory shows zero active frameworks, one activation and a drought framework under development. Primary same-URL text additionally lists a 2023 activation targeting 8,100 people and US$371,667; those details are in an unselected tab and have no honest rectangle in this capture. Directory status only; listed targets/funding are not delivered assistance or a currently active national protocol."},{"evidence_id":"E0290","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"FAO lists TCP/PNG/4101, Emergency Preparedness and Response on El Nino in PNG, for 29 July 2026–29 July 2027, aimed at improving monitoring, preparedness, anticipatory action and response.","source_title":"FAO Papua New Guinea projects","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"2026-07-29","exact_url":"https://www.fao.org/papua-new-guinea/about-us/projects/en","page_or_section":"Projects table > TCP/PNG/4101, Objective and Implementation period rows","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Official project table recovered. Listing verifies project existence, dates and stated objective; it does not prove that a national framework is complete or operational. Projects table > TCP/PNG/4101, Objective and Implementation period rows"},{"evidence_id":"E0291","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"Anticipation Hub’s captured PNG directory lists zero active frameworks, one activation, and a drought framework under development.","source_title":"Anticipatory Action country profile: Papua New Guinea","publisher":"Anticipation Hub","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/countries/papua-new-guinea","page_or_section":"Anticipatory action dashboard; Frameworks and activations table","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The saved directory shows zero active frameworks, one activation and a drought framework under development. Primary same-URL text additionally lists a 2023 activation targeting 8,100 people and US$371,667; those details are in an unselected tab and have no honest rectangle in this capture. Directory status only; listed targets/funding are not delivered assistance or a currently active national protocol."},{"evidence_id":"E0292","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"FAO lists TCP/PNG/4101, Emergency Preparedness and Response on El Nino in PNG, for 29 July 2026–29 July 2027, aimed at improving monitoring, preparedness, anticipatory action and response.","source_title":"FAO Papua New Guinea projects","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"2026-07-29","exact_url":"https://www.fao.org/papua-new-guinea/about-us/projects/en","page_or_section":"Projects table > TCP/PNG/4101, Objective and Implementation period rows","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Official project table recovered. Listing verifies project existence, dates and stated objective; it does not prove that a national framework is complete or operational. Projects table > TCP/PNG/4101, Objective and Implementation period rows"},{"evidence_id":"E0293","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"FAO anticipatory action guidance for El Niño","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://openknowledge.fao.org/bitstreams/a551eb91-d98b-4a4a-931a-49e9533d288e/download","page_or_section":"PDF page 15 (printed page 13): Asia and Pacific drought and flood/cyclone priority actions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Profile actions are portal recommendations. General agricultural preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0294","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"13 June 2026: broad water-management planning advice and National Meteorological Services paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The detailed action list for Papua New Guinea is a portal recommendation. Only broad water planning and use of national-service advice appear in the source. broad_source_guidance_only; detailed_actions_and_triggers_are_portal_analysis"},{"evidence_id":"E0295","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0296","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 8: methods table, Water stress watch and Water stress outlook","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"claim_text is blank and the profile has no triggers_to_monitor field; methods and category definitions were checked. Monitoring guidance, not operational triggers."},{"evidence_id":"E0297","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"Portal recommendation informed by Article body dated 22 June 2026: provincial/district preparation, two-week strategy request, and immediate preparedness focus.","source_title":"Prime Minister directs nationwide preparedness as El Niño threatens prolonged dry season","publisher":"Government of Papua New Guinea","publication_date":"2026-06-22","exact_url":"https://www.pmnec.gov.pg/prime-minister-marape-directs-nationwide-preparedness-as-el-nino-threatens-prolonged-dry-season/","page_or_section":"Article body dated 22 June 2026: provincial/district preparation, two-week strategy request, and immediate preparedness focus","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The cited passage informs the portal recommendation; it does not establish that the proposed action, threshold or financing arrangement has been adopted. Analytical preparedness guidance, not evidence of completed measures or an adopted trigger."},{"evidence_id":"E0298","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"ICU311 favoured significantly above-normal rainfall for Pitcairn in September, while the September–November seasonal category was near normal.","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 6: September rainfall narrative, above-normal group including Pitcairn; PDF page 7: below/above-normal lists and near-normal residual category","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Pages 6–7 support the one-month versus seasonal distinction; later updates and climatology in the profile are outside this issue. September wet forecast and September–November near-normal category only."},{"evidence_id":"E0299","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"ICU310 lists western Pitcairn Islands among areas with seriously dry or very dry Early Action Rainfall categories during the 90 days ending 11 July 2026. This is source-dated regional monitoring, not a current October observation or a national drought declaration.","source_title":"Island Climate Update 310: August–October 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-07","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-07/ICU-ASO-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 3 — EAR regional situation summary, 90 days ending 11 July 2026; western Pitcairn Islands","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified source-dated monitoring passage; historical context","source_scope_note":"The matching ICU310 issue was recovered through PDF text retrieval. Page 3 includes western Pitcairn in a regional 90-day dryness assessment ending 11 July 2026. This is historical monitoring context, not an October observation or a national drought declaration. The extract is a short anchor; its geography and period are specified here.","evidence_kind":"historical_observed_conditions","valid_from":"2026-04-13","valid_to":"2026-07-11"},{"evidence_id":"E0300","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"Pitcairn was not named in ICU311’s seriously or very dry EAR narratives for the 30 and 90 days ending 17 August; this does not confirm recovery or local water availability.","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 3: EAR regional situation summary, 17 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Neither 30-day nor 90-day dry-area narrative names this place. Non-mention is not positive evidence of normality. Absence from the bulletin’s named EAR dry-area lists only."},{"evidence_id":"E0301","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"ICU311 favoured significantly above-normal rainfall for Pitcairn in September, while the September–November seasonal category was near normal.","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 6: September rainfall narrative, above-normal group including Pitcairn; PDF page 7: below/above-normal lists and near-normal residual category","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Pages 6–7 support the one-month versus seasonal distinction; later updates and climatology in the profile are outside this issue. September wet forecast and September–November near-normal category only."},{"evidence_id":"E0302","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"Regional context from SPREP, 13 June 2026: El Niño tends to shift cyclone genesis eastward, and short heavy-rain episodes can occur within a dry western-Pacific seasonal pattern. Country-specific outlook details require separate dated sources.","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: western/central-eastern rainfall contrast; cyclone-genesis paragraphs; short heavy-rain caveat","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The regional climate passage is verified, but most of the current country spatial note comes from other issues or is portal analysis. Only the narrowed context statement is supported by this citation. regional_climate_context_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0303","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: regional drought/rainfall and cyclone-genesis context","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article supplies regional hazard context, not evidence of the specific water, crop, health, energy, fisheries, cost or infrastructure effects listed for Pitcairn Islands. analytical_risk_context_only; no_local_observed_impact_verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0304","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and health in the Pacific","publisher":"World Health Organization Western Pacific","publication_date":"2015-07-16","exact_url":"https://www.who.int/westernpacific/about/how-we-work/pacific-support/news/detail/16-07-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-health-in-the-pacific","page_or_section":"Historical pathway evidence; use for preparedness design, not as evidence of current 2026 impacts.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0305","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Supports gendered impact pathways and inclusive anticipatory actions; its Pacific country grouping is incomplete and should not be used as the sole rainfall matrix.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0306","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"Pitcairn’s official visitor guidance explains that freshwater catchment depends on rainfall, urges water conservation in dry weather and warns of high fire risk.","source_title":"Already booked: water and fire guidance","publisher":"Pitcairn Islands Tourism / Government of Pitcairn Islands","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.visitpitcairn.pn/already-booked","page_or_section":"Already Booked > Climate, paragraphs 1–2","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Official visitor guidance body recovered. This is public advice and a structural dependency, not proof of actual conservation compliance, active drought impacts or an ENSO protocol. Already Booked > Climate, paragraphs 1–2"},{"evidence_id":"E0307","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"Pitcairn’s published open-air-fire policy restricts green-waste burning and requires supervision, separation from combustibles and immediate firefighting water or an extinguisher.","source_title":"Government of Pitcairn Islands policy on open-air fires","publisher":"Government of Pitcairn Islands","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.government.pn/s/GPI-Policy-Open-Air-Fires.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 1: fire restriction, incinerator/open-fire conditions and review dates","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The saved and downloaded policy match; restrictions, supervision and firefighting-water requirements are visible. Fire controls only; no water-conservation policy or finance conclusion."},{"evidence_id":"E0308","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","used_for_field":"historical_action","claim_text":"The 2011 SPC/SOPAC report records a €300,000 agreement signed with Pitcairn on 18 August 2011. It reports monthly water-data analysis since mid-2010 and equipment procurement beginning, with intended improvements to collection, storage, treatment, distribution and management. This is historical project evidence, not confirmation of present functionality or a current anticipatory-action financing protocol.","source_title":"Disaster Reduction Programme report: Pitcairn water-storage and drought-resilience support","publisher":"Pacific Community Applied Geoscience and Technology Division","publication_date":"2011","exact_url":"https://gsd.spc.int/sopac/divisionmeeting/doc/10-2%20DRP%20Report.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 20, Pitcairn Islands section, first two paragraphs; agreement also tabulated on page 18","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","evidence_kind":"documented_practice","source_scope_note":"The original confirms the dated agreement and work then underway. It does not establish completed infrastructure, present water security, current financing or an ENSO-specific trigger."},{"evidence_id":"E0309","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"Pitcairn’s official visitor guidance explains that freshwater catchment depends on rainfall, urges water conservation in dry weather and warns of high fire risk.","source_title":"Already booked: water and fire guidance","publisher":"Pitcairn Islands Tourism / Government of Pitcairn Islands","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.visitpitcairn.pn/already-booked","page_or_section":"Already Booked > Climate, paragraphs 1–2","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Official visitor guidance body recovered. This is public advice and a structural dependency, not proof of actual conservation compliance, active drought impacts or an ENSO protocol. Already Booked > Climate, paragraphs 1–2"},{"evidence_id":"E0310","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"","source_title":"Government of Pitcairn Islands policy on open-air fires","publisher":"Government of Pitcairn Islands","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.government.pn/s/GPI-Policy-Open-Air-Fires.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 1: fire restriction, incinerator/open-fire conditions and review dates","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The policy establishes fire controls but does not classify anticipatory-action maturity or prove the absence of finance. Fire-policy preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0311","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"The reviewed official policy directory did not provide a specific ENSO/drought trigger-action-finance protocol; protocol status remains to be verified.","source_title":"Policies, annexes and forms","publisher":"Government of Pitcairn Islands","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.government.pn/government/policies-annexes-and-forms","page_or_section":"Official policy directory — page heading and policy list","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"Official policies directory is accessible and lists government policies, annexes and forms. A directory scan cannot demonstrate absence of an ENSO/drought trigger-action-finance framework. No specific such policy was retrieved from this reference."},{"evidence_id":"E0312","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"FAO anticipatory action guidance for El Niño","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://openknowledge.fao.org/bitstreams/a551eb91-d98b-4a4a-931a-49e9533d288e/download","page_or_section":"PDF page 15 (printed page 13): Asia and Pacific drought and flood/cyclone priority actions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Profile actions are portal recommendations. General agricultural preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0313","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"13 June 2026: broad water-management planning advice and National Meteorological Services paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The detailed action list for Pitcairn Islands is a portal recommendation. Only broad water planning and use of national-service advice appear in the source. broad_source_guidance_only; detailed_actions_and_triggers_are_portal_analysis"},{"evidence_id":"E0314","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0315","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 8: methods table, Water stress watch and Water stress outlook","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"claim_text is blank and the profile has no triggers_to_monitor field; methods and category definitions were checked. Monitoring guidance, not operational triggers."},{"evidence_id":"E0316","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"Pitcairn’s official visitor guidance explains that freshwater catchment depends on rainfall, urges water conservation in dry weather and warns of high fire risk.","source_title":"Already booked: water and fire guidance","publisher":"Pitcairn Islands Tourism / Government of Pitcairn Islands","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.visitpitcairn.pn/already-booked","page_or_section":"Already Booked > Climate, paragraphs 1–2","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Official visitor guidance body recovered. This is public advice and a structural dependency, not proof of actual conservation compliance, active drought impacts or an ENSO protocol. This supports a planning recommendation, not proof that the proposed local action is funded or implemented. Already Booked > Climate, paragraphs 1–2"},{"evidence_id":"E0317","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Rainfall outlook map and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0318","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"historical_forecast","claim_text":"For 29 August–11 September 2026, the regional watch forecast a very high chance of very wet conditions over central RMI, with positive fortnightly rainfall anomalies above 75 mm forecast over northern RMI. These forecasts are not observed October station rainfall or drought classifications.","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch, 27 August 2026, Issue 1","publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-08/Regional-Climate-Watch-27-08-2026-issue1.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 3; Regional Climate Watch issued 27 August 2026, valid 29 August–11 September 2026","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","evidence_kind":"forecast","source_scope_note":"Keep regional forecast separate from current U.S. Drought Monitor station observations.","valid_from":"2026-08-29","valid_to":"2026-09-11"},{"evidence_id":"E0319","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"The Marshall Islands were free of drought or abnormal dryness in the 27 August 2026 release; Jaluit improved after at least 3.44 inches of rain.","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor – U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publisher":"NDMC / NOAA / USDA / NASA","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260825.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section, marshall-islands paragraph; release 27 August 2026, valid 25 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact archived jurisdiction paragraph is legible and agrees with the primary archived text. The current profile has later observations which this August citation cannot verify. direct_historical_monitoring_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0320","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Forecast maps and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0321","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"SPREP’s 13 June 2026 statement anticipated a North Pacific cyclone-genesis shift toward the Marshall Islands; it did not provide an atoll-level seasonal impact forecast.","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: western/central-eastern rainfall contrast; cyclone-genesis paragraphs; short heavy-rain caveat","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The regional climate passage is verified, but most of the current country spatial note comes from other issues or is portal analysis. Only the narrowed context statement is supported by this citation. regional_climate_context_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0322","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: regional drought/rainfall and cyclone-genesis context","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article supplies regional hazard context, not evidence of the specific water, crop, health, energy, fisheries, cost or infrastructure effects listed for Republic of the Marshall Islands. analytical_risk_context_only; no_local_observed_impact_verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0323","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and health in the Pacific","publisher":"World Health Organization Western Pacific","publication_date":"2015-07-16","exact_url":"https://www.who.int/westernpacific/about/how-we-work/pacific-support/news/detail/16-07-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-health-in-the-pacific","page_or_section":"Historical pathway evidence; use for preparedness design, not as evidence of current 2026 impacts.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0324","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Supports gendered impact pathways and inclusive anticipatory actions; its Pacific country grouping is incomplete and should not be used as the sole rainfall matrix.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0325","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"UNDP reported a 2023 validation workshop to incorporate stakeholder feedback into the Marshall Islands’ draft National Drought Contingency Plan.","source_title":"Capacity development for RMI water governance through National Drought Contingency Plan workshop","publisher":"UNDP Pacific Office","publication_date":"2023-05-19","exact_url":"https://www.undp.org/pacific/press-releases/capacity-development-rmi-water-governance-through-national-drought-contingency-plan-workshop","page_or_section":"Opening workshop description; draft-feedback and official-documentation paragraphs","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article is dated 19 May 2023, not 2025; it reports a 27 April 2023 validation workshop on a draft plan. It does not certify final approval or operational trigger financing. Draft-plan consultation/capacity development, not finalized operational approval or finance."},{"evidence_id":"E0326","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"UNDP describes a 2019–2026 Marshall Islands water-resilience project under implementation, focused on rainwater storage, groundwater protection and water-governance capacity.","source_title":"Addressing Climate Vulnerability in the Water Sector in the Marshall Islands (ACWA)","publisher":"UNDP / Green Climate Fund / Government of RMI","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.adaptation-undp.org/projects/GCF/marshallislands/water","page_or_section":"Project summary/focus, project-status and financing table, Expected outcomes","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The page labels a 2019–2026 water-resilience project under implementation and separates expected outputs from actual results. Its reported project finance is long-term investment, not a forecast-triggered payout facility. Long-term project scope and reported implementation status; not completed outputs or automatic anticipatory finance."},{"evidence_id":"E0327","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"UNDP reported a 2023 validation workshop to incorporate stakeholder feedback into the Marshall Islands’ draft National Drought Contingency Plan.","source_title":"Capacity development for RMI water governance through National Drought Contingency Plan workshop","publisher":"UNDP Pacific Office","publication_date":"2023-05-19","exact_url":"https://www.undp.org/pacific/press-releases/capacity-development-rmi-water-governance-through-national-drought-contingency-plan-workshop","page_or_section":"Opening workshop description; draft-feedback and official-documentation paragraphs","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article is dated 19 May 2023, not 2025; it reports a 27 April 2023 validation workshop on a draft plan. It does not certify final approval or operational trigger financing. Draft-plan consultation/capacity development, not finalized operational approval or finance."},{"evidence_id":"E0328","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"UNDP describes a 2019–2026 Marshall Islands water-resilience project under implementation, focused on rainwater storage, groundwater protection and water-governance capacity.","source_title":"Addressing Climate Vulnerability in the Water Sector in the Marshall Islands (ACWA)","publisher":"UNDP / Green Climate Fund / Government of RMI","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.adaptation-undp.org/projects/GCF/marshallislands/water","page_or_section":"Project summary/focus, project-status and financing table, Expected outcomes","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The page labels a 2019–2026 water-resilience project under implementation and separates expected outputs from actual results. Its reported project finance is long-term investment, not a forecast-triggered payout facility. Long-term project scope and reported implementation status; not completed outputs or automatic anticipatory finance."},{"evidence_id":"E0329","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"PCRIC reported RMI drought-policy design discussions and a three-tier rainfall-deficit trigger proposal; finalising parameters and preparing Cabinet documentation remained next steps.","source_title":"PCRIC advances drought policy development in RMI","publisher":"PCRIC","publication_date":"2026-02-17","exact_url":"https://pcric.org/2026/02/17/pcric-advances-drought-policy-development-in-rmi/","page_or_section":"17 February 2026 article, final body paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original dated-path URL returns 404. Official canonical article has the same title and publication date 17 February 2026, establishing same-article identity. It supports development, not active policy coverage. 17 February 2026 article, final body paragraph"},{"evidence_id":"E0330","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"FAO anticipatory action guidance for El Niño","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://openknowledge.fao.org/bitstreams/a551eb91-d98b-4a4a-931a-49e9533d288e/download","page_or_section":"PDF page 15 (printed page 13): Asia and Pacific drought and flood/cyclone priority actions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Profile actions are portal recommendations. General agricultural preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0331","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"13 June 2026: broad water-management planning advice and National Meteorological Services paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The detailed action list for Republic of the Marshall Islands is a portal recommendation. Only broad water planning and use of national-service advice appear in the source. broad_source_guidance_only; detailed_actions_and_triggers_are_portal_analysis"},{"evidence_id":"E0332","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0333","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 8: methods table, Water stress watch and Water stress outlook","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"claim_text is blank and the profile has no triggers_to_monitor field; methods and category definitions were checked. Monitoring guidance, not operational triggers."},{"evidence_id":"E0334","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor – U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publisher":"NDMC / NOAA / USDA / NASA","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260825.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section, marshall-islands paragraph; release 27 August 2026, valid 25 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The archived drought class can inform an analyst recommendation, but this paragraph specifies no agreed local escalation threshold, action authority or financing release. portal_monitoring_recommendation_informed_by_historical_observations"},{"evidence_id":"E0335","profile_id":"samoa","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Rainfall outlook map and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0336","profile_id":"samoa","used_for_field":"historical_forecast","claim_text":"The regional climate-watch map for 29 August–11 September 2026 shows no watch for Samoa. This historical watch status is not an observation of rainfall, drought or impacts.","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch, 27 August 2026, Issue 1","publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-08/Regional-Climate-Watch-27-08-2026-issue1.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 2; Regional Climate Watch issued 27 August 2026, valid 29 August–11 September 2026","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","evidence_kind":"forecast","source_scope_note":"The original source does not support the previous Samoa observed-dryness or impact association. The relevant EEZ is shown with the map’s no-watch convention, which is not proof of normal rainfall, absence of drought or absence of impacts.","valid_from":"2026-08-29","valid_to":"2026-09-11"},{"evidence_id":"E0338","profile_id":"samoa","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Forecast maps and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0339","profile_id":"samoa","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"SPREP’s 13 June 2026 statement placed the typical El Niño South Pacific cyclone-genesis shift closer to Samoa, Niue and the Cook Islands; this is regional context rather than a 2026–27 country cyclone forecast.","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: western/central-eastern rainfall contrast; cyclone-genesis paragraphs; short heavy-rain caveat","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The regional climate passage is verified, but most of the current country spatial note comes from other issues or is portal analysis. Only the narrowed context statement is supported by this citation. regional_climate_context_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0340","profile_id":"samoa","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: regional drought/rainfall and cyclone-genesis context","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article supplies regional hazard context, not evidence of the specific water, crop, health, energy, fisheries, cost or infrastructure effects listed for Samoa. analytical_risk_context_only; no_local_observed_impact_verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0341","profile_id":"samoa","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and health in the Pacific","publisher":"World Health Organization Western Pacific","publication_date":"2015-07-16","exact_url":"https://www.who.int/westernpacific/about/how-we-work/pacific-support/news/detail/16-07-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-health-in-the-pacific","page_or_section":"Historical pathway evidence; use for preparedness design, not as evidence of current 2026 impacts.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0342","profile_id":"samoa","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Supports gendered impact pathways and inclusive anticipatory actions; its Pacific country grouping is incomplete and should not be used as the sole rainfall matrix.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0343","profile_id":"samoa","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"The DREW project plans to develop or finalise drought management and response plans, SOPs and thresholds for Samoa.","source_title":"CREWS Drought Resilience and Early Warning (DREW) Pacific Project Document","publisher":"CREWS Initiative","publication_date":"2026-01","exact_url":"https://crews-initiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/CREWS-Drought-Resilience-and-Early-Warning-DREW-Pacific-Project-Document.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 16: Outcome 1, Output 1.1, first activity","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Page 16 names this country in planned drought management/response work. It does not establish delivery. Planned plans, SOPs and thresholds only."},{"evidence_id":"E0345","profile_id":"samoa","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"","source_title":"CREWS Drought Resilience and Early Warning (DREW) Pacific Project Document","publisher":"CREWS Initiative","publication_date":"2026-01","exact_url":"https://crews-initiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/CREWS-Drought-Resilience-and-Early-Warning-DREW-Pacific-Project-Document.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 16: Outcome 1, Output 1.1, first activity","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The maturity classification is portal analysis; the project document describes future work. Planned drought-system strengthening only."},{"evidence_id":"E0346","profile_id":"samoa","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"","source_title":"Anticipatory Action in Asia-Pacific: Regional Overview","publisher":"Anticipation Hub","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/overview/regions-countries/anticipatory-action-in-asia-pacific","page_or_section":"Countries directory and visible Fiji card; undated overview captured 15 September 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only"},{"evidence_id":"E0347","profile_id":"samoa","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"FAO anticipatory action guidance for El Niño","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://openknowledge.fao.org/bitstreams/a551eb91-d98b-4a4a-931a-49e9533d288e/download","page_or_section":"PDF page 15 (printed page 13): Asia and Pacific drought and flood/cyclone priority actions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Profile actions are portal recommendations. General agricultural preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0348","profile_id":"samoa","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"13 June 2026: broad water-management planning advice and National Meteorological Services paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The detailed action list for Samoa is a portal recommendation. Only broad water planning and use of national-service advice appear in the source. broad_source_guidance_only; detailed_actions_and_triggers_are_portal_analysis"},{"evidence_id":"E0349","profile_id":"samoa","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0350","profile_id":"samoa","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 8: methods table, Water stress watch and Water stress outlook","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"claim_text is blank and the profile has no triggers_to_monitor field; methods and category definitions were checked. Monitoring guidance, not operational triggers."},{"evidence_id":"E0352","profile_id":"solomon-islands","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Rainfall outlook map and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0353","profile_id":"solomon-islands","used_for_field":"historical_forecast","claim_text":"The regional climate-watch map for 29 August–11 September 2026 shows no watch for Solomon Islands. This historical watch status is not an observation of rainfall, drought or impacts.","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch, 27 August 2026, Issue 1","publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-08/Regional-Climate-Watch-27-08-2026-issue1.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 2; Regional Climate Watch issued 27 August 2026, valid 29 August–11 September 2026","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","evidence_kind":"forecast","source_scope_note":"The original source does not support the previous Solomon Islands observed-dryness or impact association. The relevant EEZ is shown with the map’s no-watch convention, which is not proof of normal rainfall, absence of drought or absence of impacts.","valid_from":"2026-08-29","valid_to":"2026-09-11"},{"evidence_id":"E0354","profile_id":"solomon-islands","used_for_field":"historical_risk_pathway","claim_text":"A 2023 SIMS notice explains historical El Niño drought and water/agriculture risks; it does not establish current 2026 conditions or measures.","source_title":"Solomon Islands ENSO status","publisher":"Government of Solomon Islands","publication_date":"2023-09-24","exact_url":"https://solomons.gov.sb/the-el-nino-southern-oscillations-enso-status/","page_or_section":"24 September 2023 article > What does it mean for the Solomon Islands community?, first paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to historical 2023 context","source_scope_note":"The former current-condition/current-measure mapping is withdrawn. This is a notice issued 24 September 2023, retained solely for historical drought-risk context. It does not establish a 2026 condition, declaration, implementation or funding.","evidence_kind":"historical_risk_pathway","valid_from":"2023-09-24","valid_to":"2023-12-31"},{"evidence_id":"E0355","profile_id":"solomon-islands","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Forecast maps and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0356","profile_id":"solomon-islands","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"Regional context from SPREP, 13 June 2026: El Niño tends to shift cyclone genesis eastward, and short heavy-rain episodes can occur within a dry western-Pacific seasonal pattern. Country-specific outlook details require separate dated sources.","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: western/central-eastern rainfall contrast; cyclone-genesis paragraphs; short heavy-rain caveat","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The regional climate passage is verified, but most of the current country spatial note comes from other issues or is portal analysis. Only the narrowed context statement is supported by this citation. regional_climate_context_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0357","profile_id":"solomon-islands","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: regional drought/rainfall and cyclone-genesis context","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article supplies regional hazard context, not evidence of the specific water, crop, health, energy, fisheries, cost or infrastructure effects listed for Solomon Islands. analytical_risk_context_only; no_local_observed_impact_verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0358","profile_id":"solomon-islands","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and health in the Pacific","publisher":"World Health Organization Western Pacific","publication_date":"2015-07-16","exact_url":"https://www.who.int/westernpacific/about/how-we-work/pacific-support/news/detail/16-07-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-health-in-the-pacific","page_or_section":"Historical pathway evidence; use for preparedness design, not as evidence of current 2026 impacts.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0359","profile_id":"solomon-islands","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Supports gendered impact pathways and inclusive anticipatory actions; its Pacific country grouping is incomplete and should not be used as the sole rainfall matrix.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0360","profile_id":"solomon-islands","used_for_field":"historical_risk_pathway","claim_text":"A 2023 SIMS notice explains historical El Niño drought and water/agriculture risks; it does not establish current 2026 conditions or measures.","source_title":"Solomon Islands ENSO status","publisher":"Government of Solomon Islands","publication_date":"2023-09-24","exact_url":"https://solomons.gov.sb/the-el-nino-southern-oscillations-enso-status/","page_or_section":"24 September 2023 article > What does it mean for the Solomon Islands community?, first paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to historical 2023 context","source_scope_note":"The former current-condition/current-measure mapping is withdrawn. This is a notice issued 24 September 2023, retained solely for historical drought-risk context. It does not establish a 2026 condition, declaration, implementation or funding.","evidence_kind":"historical_risk_pathway","valid_from":"2023-09-24","valid_to":"2023-12-31"},{"evidence_id":"E0361","profile_id":"solomon-islands","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"Anticipation Hub’s captured Solomon Islands directory shows zero frameworks and zero activations.","source_title":"Anticipatory Action country profile: Solomon Islands","publisher":"Anticipation Hub","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/countries/solomon-islands","page_or_section":"Frameworks and activations section, zero-count tabs","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The visible directory tabs record zero frameworks and activations. The cookie panel obscures dashboard values, so the unobscured table counts are the selected evidence. Directory absence is not nationwide proof of absence. Directory coverage at capture time only."},{"evidence_id":"E0362","profile_id":"solomon-islands","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"","source_title":"Anticipatory Action in Asia-Pacific: Regional Overview","publisher":"Anticipation Hub","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/overview/regions-countries/anticipatory-action-in-asia-pacific","page_or_section":"Countries directory and visible Fiji card; undated overview captured 15 September 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only"},{"evidence_id":"E0363","profile_id":"solomon-islands","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"Anticipation Hub’s captured Solomon Islands directory shows zero frameworks and zero activations.","source_title":"Anticipatory Action country profile: Solomon Islands","publisher":"Anticipation Hub","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/countries/solomon-islands","page_or_section":"Frameworks and activations section, zero-count tabs","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The visible directory tabs record zero frameworks and activations. The cookie panel obscures dashboard values, so the unobscured table counts are the selected evidence. Directory absence is not nationwide proof of absence. Directory coverage at capture time only."},{"evidence_id":"E0364","profile_id":"solomon-islands","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"FAO anticipatory action guidance for El Niño","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://openknowledge.fao.org/bitstreams/a551eb91-d98b-4a4a-931a-49e9533d288e/download","page_or_section":"PDF page 15 (printed page 13): Asia and Pacific drought and flood/cyclone priority actions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Profile actions are portal recommendations. General agricultural preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0365","profile_id":"solomon-islands","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"13 June 2026: broad water-management planning advice and National Meteorological Services paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The detailed action list for Solomon Islands is a portal recommendation. Only broad water planning and use of national-service advice appear in the source. broad_source_guidance_only; detailed_actions_and_triggers_are_portal_analysis"},{"evidence_id":"E0366","profile_id":"solomon-islands","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0367","profile_id":"solomon-islands","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 8: methods table, Water stress watch and Water stress outlook","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"claim_text is blank and the profile has no triggers_to_monitor field; methods and category definitions were checked. Monitoring guidance, not operational triggers."},{"evidence_id":"E0368","profile_id":"solomon-islands","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"Historical SIMS guidance describes El Niño-related dry-spell and water risks. Monitor current national bulletins and local water conditions before using it for 2026 action decisions.","source_title":"Solomon Islands ENSO status","publisher":"Government of Solomon Islands","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://solomons.gov.sb/the-el-nino-southern-oscillations-enso-status/","page_or_section":"24 September 2023 article > What does it mean for the Solomon Islands community?, first paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The original source is a 2023 notice. This short anchor is valid solely as historical planning context, with the 2023 date explicit; it is not a 2026 trigger or observation. This supports a planning recommendation, not proof that the proposed local action is funded or implemented. 24 September 2023 article > What does it mean for the Solomon Islands community?, first paragraph"},{"evidence_id":"E0369","profile_id":"tokelau","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Rainfall outlook map and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0370","profile_id":"tokelau","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"Tokelau was not named in ICU311’s seriously or very dry EAR narratives for the 30 and 90 days ending 17 August; this does not confirm recovery or local water availability.","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 3: EAR regional situation summary, 17 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Neither 30-day nor 90-day dry-area narrative names this place. Non-mention is not positive evidence of normality. Absence from the bulletin’s named EAR dry-area lists only."},{"evidence_id":"E0371","profile_id":"tokelau","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Forecast maps and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0372","profile_id":"tokelau","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"Regional context from SPREP, 13 June 2026: El Niño tends to shift cyclone genesis eastward, and short heavy-rain episodes can occur within a dry western-Pacific seasonal pattern. Country-specific outlook details require separate dated sources.","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: western/central-eastern rainfall contrast; cyclone-genesis paragraphs; short heavy-rain caveat","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The regional climate passage is verified, but most of the current country spatial note comes from other issues or is portal analysis. Only the narrowed context statement is supported by this citation. regional_climate_context_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0373","profile_id":"tokelau","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: regional drought/rainfall and cyclone-genesis context","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article supplies regional hazard context, not evidence of the specific water, crop, health, energy, fisheries, cost or infrastructure effects listed for Tokelau. analytical_risk_context_only; no_local_observed_impact_verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0374","profile_id":"tokelau","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and health in the Pacific","publisher":"World Health Organization Western Pacific","publication_date":"2015-07-16","exact_url":"https://www.who.int/westernpacific/about/how-we-work/pacific-support/news/detail/16-07-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-health-in-the-pacific","page_or_section":"Historical pathway evidence; use for preparedness design, not as evidence of current 2026 impacts.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0375","profile_id":"tokelau","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Supports gendered impact pathways and inclusive anticipatory actions; its Pacific country grouping is incomplete and should not be used as the sole rainfall matrix.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0376","profile_id":"tokelau","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"Tokelau held its first National Climate Outlook Forum on Atafu on 1 May 2026, bringing together stakeholders from its three atolls, with climate-service and drought early-warning support through CREWS/DREW partners.","source_title":"Milestone as Tokelau's first National Climate Outlook Forum is convened","publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network / SPREP","publication_date":"2026-05-19","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/milestone-tokelau-first-national-climate-outlook-forum-convened","page_or_section":"First NCOF on Atafu paragraph; CREWS/DREW support paragraph; About CREWS DREW Pacific","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article reports the first forum on Atafu on 1 May 2026 and DREW-supported climate/early-warning work. It does not describe a pre-financed action-by-trigger protocol. Its May climate advice must not be substituted for the later seasonal outlook. Completed forum and early-warning capacity development; no operational trigger-finance claim."},{"evidence_id":"E0377","profile_id":"tokelau","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"Tokelau’s 2017–2030 Living with Change strategy places implementation with each village’s Taupulega, envisages TCR2O coordination and partner support, and prioritises preparedness and response capacity in all three villages.","source_title":"Living with Change: An integrated national strategy for enhancing the resilience of Tokelau to climate change and related hazards, 2017–2030","publisher":"Government of Tokelau","publication_date":"2017","exact_url":"https://www.tokelau.org.nz/site/tokelau/files/ClimateChange/LivCStrategy_web-2.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 9 / printed p. 3, Future Pathways: Human Development; PDF p. 10 / printed p. 4, Turning Strategy into Action: Institutional Arrangements and Partnerships, Approaches, and Resourcing","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Strategic governance and capacity baseline; the passages do not give a current ENSO trigger-action-finance protocol."},{"evidence_id":"E0378","profile_id":"tokelau","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"Tokelau’s official climate-change page provides a directory of government plans, strategy documents and consultancy reports.","source_title":"Climate change information hub","publisher":"Government of Tokelau","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.tokelau.org.nz/Climate.html","page_or_section":"Climate Change introductory description and government document list","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The official page is a document hub linking plans and reports. It does not itself establish those documents’ adoption, implementation or financing provisions. Institutional source/document metadata only."},{"evidence_id":"E0379","profile_id":"tokelau","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"","source_title":"Anticipatory Action in Asia-Pacific: Regional Overview","publisher":"Anticipation Hub","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/overview/regions-countries/anticipatory-action-in-asia-pacific","page_or_section":"Countries directory and visible Fiji card; undated overview captured 15 September 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only"},{"evidence_id":"E0380","profile_id":"tokelau","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"Tokelau held its first National Climate Outlook Forum on Atafu on 1 May 2026, bringing together stakeholders from its three atolls, with climate-service and drought early-warning support through CREWS/DREW partners.","source_title":"Milestone as Tokelau's first National Climate Outlook Forum is convened","publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network / SPREP","publication_date":"2026-05-19","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/milestone-tokelau-first-national-climate-outlook-forum-convened","page_or_section":"First NCOF on Atafu paragraph; CREWS/DREW support paragraph; About CREWS DREW Pacific","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article reports the first forum on Atafu on 1 May 2026 and DREW-supported climate/early-warning work. It does not describe a pre-financed action-by-trigger protocol. Its May climate advice must not be substituted for the later seasonal outlook. Completed forum and early-warning capacity development; no operational trigger-finance claim."},{"evidence_id":"E0381","profile_id":"tokelau","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"The Tokelau strategy sets out resilience governance, capacity objectives and resourcing arrangements; its existence alone does not verify a current pre-financed ENSO activation protocol.","source_title":"Living with Change: An integrated national strategy for enhancing the resilience of Tokelau to climate change and related hazards, 2017–2030","publisher":"Government of Tokelau","publication_date":"2017","exact_url":"https://www.tokelau.org.nz/site/tokelau/files/ClimateChange/LivCStrategy_web-2.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 9 / printed p. 3, Future Pathways: Human Development; PDF p. 10 / printed p. 4, Turning Strategy into Action: Institutional Arrangements and Partnerships, Approaches, and Resourcing","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Current maturity is an analytical classification, not a direct finding stated in this strategy. Portal maturity assessment informed by a strategic baseline."},{"evidence_id":"E0382","profile_id":"tokelau","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"FAO anticipatory action guidance for El Niño","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://openknowledge.fao.org/bitstreams/a551eb91-d98b-4a4a-931a-49e9533d288e/download","page_or_section":"PDF page 15 (printed page 13): Asia and Pacific drought and flood/cyclone priority actions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Profile actions are portal recommendations. General agricultural preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0383","profile_id":"tokelau","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"13 June 2026: broad water-management planning advice and National Meteorological Services paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The detailed action list for Tokelau is a portal recommendation. Only broad water planning and use of national-service advice appear in the source. broad_source_guidance_only; detailed_actions_and_triggers_are_portal_analysis"},{"evidence_id":"E0384","profile_id":"tokelau","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0385","profile_id":"tokelau","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 8: methods table, Water stress watch and Water stress outlook","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"claim_text is blank and the profile has no triggers_to_monitor field; methods and category definitions were checked. Monitoring guidance, not operational triggers."},{"evidence_id":"E0386","profile_id":"tokelau","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"Portal recommendation informed by First NCOF on Atafu paragraph; CREWS/DREW support paragraph; About CREWS DREW Pacific.","source_title":"Milestone as Tokelau's first National Climate Outlook Forum is convened","publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network / SPREP","publication_date":"2026-05-19","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/milestone-tokelau-first-national-climate-outlook-forum-convened","page_or_section":"First NCOF on Atafu paragraph; CREWS/DREW support paragraph; About CREWS DREW Pacific","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The cited passage informs the portal recommendation; it does not establish that the proposed action, threshold or financing arrangement has been adopted. Analytical preparedness guidance, not evidence of completed measures or an adopted trigger."},{"evidence_id":"E0387","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Rainfall outlook map and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0388","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"historical_forecast","claim_text":"The regional climate-watch map for 29 August–11 September 2026 shows no watch for Tonga. This historical watch status is not an observation of rainfall, drought or impacts.","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch, 27 August 2026, Issue 1","publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-08/Regional-Climate-Watch-27-08-2026-issue1.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 2; Regional Climate Watch issued 27 August 2026, valid 29 August–11 September 2026","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","evidence_kind":"forecast","source_scope_note":"The original source does not support the previous Tonga observed-dryness or impact association. The relevant EEZ is shown with the map’s no-watch convention, which is not proof of normal rainfall, absence of drought or absence of impacts.","valid_from":"2026-08-29","valid_to":"2026-09-11"},{"evidence_id":"E0389","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"PCRIC reported Tonga’s fourth drought-insurance payout on 25 August 2026, stating US$42,600 for Tongatapu and Eua preparedness/response and cumulative payouts exceeding TOP330,000; component arithmetic requires confirmation.","source_title":"Fourth drought payout for Tonga under GSSP-supported policy","publisher":"PCRIC","publication_date":"2026-08-25","exact_url":"https://pcric.org/fourth-drought-payout-for-tonga-under-gssp-supported-policy/","page_or_section":"Opening two payout paragraphs; anticipatory purpose; payout presentation paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"PCRIC reports US$42,600 for the fourth payout and cumulative payouts above TOP330,000, with a separately stated US$8,400 Eua preparedness component. The article’s percentages/limits imply a conflicting component sum, so island breakdown needs confirmation. Payout reporting is not proof of completed activities or beneficiary receipt. Reported July rainfall-deficit trigger and August payout context, not independent household or water-service impact observations."},{"evidence_id":"E0390","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Forecast maps and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0391","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"Regional context from SPREP, 13 June 2026: El Niño tends to shift cyclone genesis eastward, and short heavy-rain episodes can occur within a dry western-Pacific seasonal pattern. Country-specific outlook details require separate dated sources.","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: western/central-eastern rainfall contrast; cyclone-genesis paragraphs; short heavy-rain caveat","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The regional climate passage is verified, but most of the current country spatial note comes from other issues or is portal analysis. Only the narrowed context statement is supported by this citation. regional_climate_context_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0392","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: regional drought/rainfall and cyclone-genesis context","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article supplies regional hazard context, not evidence of the specific water, crop, health, energy, fisheries, cost or infrastructure effects listed for Tonga. analytical_risk_context_only; no_local_observed_impact_verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0393","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and health in the Pacific","publisher":"World Health Organization Western Pacific","publication_date":"2015-07-16","exact_url":"https://www.who.int/westernpacific/about/how-we-work/pacific-support/news/detail/16-07-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-health-in-the-pacific","page_or_section":"Historical pathway evidence; use for preparedness design, not as evidence of current 2026 impacts.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0394","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Supports gendered impact pathways and inclusive anticipatory actions; its Pacific country grouping is incomplete and should not be used as the sole rainfall matrix.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0395","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"SPREP describes Tonga’s ENSO Directive as under development and intended to align coordination, communications and operating procedures, with national stakeholder consultation needed before finalisation.","source_title":"Tonga develops national ENSO Directive to better prepare for El Niño and La Niña impacts","publisher":"SPREP / Tonga Meteorological Service","publication_date":"2026-07","exact_url":"https://www.sprep.org/news/tonga-develops-national-el-nino-southern-oscillation-enso-directive-to-better-prepare-for-el-nino-and-la-nina-impacts","page_or_section":"Article body, paragraph beginning Once finalised; July 16–17 stakeholder-workshop paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Live original URL returns 403. Indexed official primary article contains the full development narrative and July stakeholder-workshop details. Verification uses those complete body sections, not title alone. It does not show an adopted directive or committed activation finance. Article body, paragraph beginning Once finalised; July 16–17 stakeholder-workshop paragraph"},{"evidence_id":"E0396","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"PCRIC describes rainfall-deficit insurance design and gives Tonga’s policy as an example with preparedness, early-response and extended-response stages.","source_title":"Pacific Drought Insurance Product","publisher":"Pacific Catastrophe Risk Insurance Company","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://pcric.org/drought/","page_or_section":"Product development paragraph; trigger-level explanation and numbered Tonga example","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The three trigger stages are explicitly presented as the first Tonga policy example. The page reports support for designing Nauru policies, but does not establish that Tonga’s specific trigger structure is Nauru’s active contract. Product design and Tonga example; no proof of all-country policy terms, automatic action execution or assistance delivery."},{"evidence_id":"E0397","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"On 25 August 2026, PCRIC reported Tonga’s fourth drought-insurance payout of US$42,600 for preparedness and response in Tongatapu and ‘Eua, bringing cumulative payouts above TOP330,000. It separately reported US$8,400 for ‘Eua preparedness covering 1–31 July 2026. The article’s component percentages do not reconcile with its stated payout total; the island-level breakdown needs confirmation. These are reported insurance payouts, not verified evidence of completed activities or assistance reaching individual beneficiaries.","source_title":"Fourth drought payout for Tonga under GSSP-supported policy","publisher":"PCRIC","publication_date":"2026-08-25","exact_url":"https://pcric.org/fourth-drought-payout-for-tonga-under-gssp-supported-policy/","page_or_section":"Opening two payout paragraphs; anticipatory purpose; payout presentation paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"PCRIC reports US$42,600 for the fourth payout and cumulative payouts above TOP330,000, with a separately stated US$8,400 Eua preparedness component. The article’s percentages/limits imply a conflicting component sum, so island breakdown needs confirmation. Payout reporting is not proof of completed activities or beneficiary receipt. Reported insurance trigger/payout and intended use; not verified use, delivery or outcomes."},{"evidence_id":"E0398","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"SPREP describes Tonga’s ENSO Directive as under development and intended to align coordination, communications and operating procedures, with national stakeholder consultation needed before finalisation.","source_title":"Tonga develops national ENSO Directive to better prepare for El Niño and La Niña impacts","publisher":"SPREP / Tonga Meteorological Service","publication_date":"2026-07","exact_url":"https://www.sprep.org/news/tonga-develops-national-el-nino-southern-oscillation-enso-directive-to-better-prepare-for-el-nino-and-la-nina-impacts","page_or_section":"Article body, paragraph beginning Once finalised; July 16–17 stakeholder-workshop paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Live original URL returns 403. Indexed official primary article contains the full development narrative and July stakeholder-workshop details. Verification uses those complete body sections, not title alone. It does not show an adopted directive or committed activation finance. Article body, paragraph beginning Once finalised; July 16–17 stakeholder-workshop paragraph"},{"evidence_id":"E0399","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"PCRIC describes rainfall-deficit insurance design and gives Tonga’s policy as an example with preparedness, early-response and extended-response stages.","source_title":"Pacific Drought Insurance Product","publisher":"Pacific Catastrophe Risk Insurance Company","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://pcric.org/drought/","page_or_section":"Product development paragraph; trigger-level explanation and numbered Tonga example","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The three trigger stages are explicitly presented as the first Tonga policy example. The page reports support for designing Nauru policies, but does not establish that Tonga’s specific trigger structure is Nauru’s active contract. Product design and Tonga example; no proof of all-country policy terms, automatic action execution or assistance delivery."},{"evidence_id":"E0400","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"The 25 August report documents a triggered drought-insurance payout intended for anticipatory preparedness and response; it does not verify a complete publicly accountable island-group action protocol.","source_title":"Fourth drought payout for Tonga under GSSP-supported policy","publisher":"PCRIC","publication_date":"2026-08-25","exact_url":"https://pcric.org/fourth-drought-payout-for-tonga-under-gssp-supported-policy/","page_or_section":"Opening two payout paragraphs; anticipatory purpose; payout presentation paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"PCRIC reports US$42,600 for the fourth payout and cumulative payouts above TOP330,000, with a separately stated US$8,400 Eua preparedness component. The article’s percentages/limits imply a conflicting component sum, so island breakdown needs confirmation. Payout reporting is not proof of completed activities or beneficiary receipt. Reported insurance trigger/payout and intended use; not verified use, delivery or outcomes."},{"evidence_id":"E0401","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"FAO anticipatory action guidance for El Niño","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://openknowledge.fao.org/bitstreams/a551eb91-d98b-4a4a-931a-49e9533d288e/download","page_or_section":"PDF page 15 (printed page 13): Asia and Pacific drought and flood/cyclone priority actions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Profile actions are portal recommendations. General agricultural preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0402","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"13 June 2026: broad water-management planning advice and National Meteorological Services paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The detailed action list for Tonga is a portal recommendation. Only broad water planning and use of national-service advice appear in the source. broad_source_guidance_only; detailed_actions_and_triggers_are_portal_analysis"},{"evidence_id":"E0403","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0404","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 8: methods table, Water stress watch and Water stress outlook","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"claim_text is blank and the profile has no triggers_to_monitor field; methods and category definitions were checked. Monitoring guidance, not operational triggers."},{"evidence_id":"E0405","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"Portal recommendation informed by Opening two payout paragraphs; anticipatory purpose; payout presentation paragraph.","source_title":"Fourth drought payout for Tonga under GSSP-supported policy","publisher":"PCRIC","publication_date":"2026-08-25","exact_url":"https://pcric.org/fourth-drought-payout-for-tonga-under-gssp-supported-policy/","page_or_section":"Opening two payout paragraphs; anticipatory purpose; payout presentation paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The cited passage informs the portal recommendation; it does not establish that the proposed action, threshold or financing arrangement has been adopted. Analytical preparedness guidance, not evidence of completed measures or an adopted trigger."},{"evidence_id":"E0406","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Rainfall outlook map and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0407","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"historical_forecast","claim_text":"For 29 August–11 September 2026, the regional watch forecast a very high chance of very wet conditions over northern Tuvalu, with rainfall anomalies above 75 mm forecast over the northeast. It does not verify observed dryness in southern Tuvalu.","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch, 27 August 2026, Issue 1","publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-08/Regional-Climate-Watch-27-08-2026-issue1.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 3; Regional Climate Watch issued 27 August 2026, valid 29 August–11 September 2026","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","evidence_kind":"forecast","source_scope_note":"The northern wet-window forecast is directly supported; southern observed dryness needs a different dated monitoring source.","valid_from":"2026-08-29","valid_to":"2026-09-11"},{"evidence_id":"E0408","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"The August 2026 Rainfall Watch identifies southern Tuvalu among areas with very or seriously dry May–July rainfall, while some northern Tuvalu areas were wet; it is not a national impact declaration.","source_title":"Pacific Islands Early Action Rainfall Watch: August 2026","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific RCC","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/content/pacific-islands-early-action-rainfall-watch-august-2026","page_or_section":"August 2026 Rainfall Watch, PDF page 1, Rainfall Status as of 31 July, dry-areas paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Official August library record directly links this 3-page PDF; heading confirms August issue and 31 July observation cutoff. Page 3 expressly restricts distribution. Inline full-page/cropped reproduction withheld; only this minimal anchor and locator are proposed. August 2026 Rainfall Watch, PDF page 1, Rainfall Status as of 31 July, dry-areas paragraph"},{"evidence_id":"E0409","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Forecast maps and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0410","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"Regional context from SPREP, 13 June 2026: El Niño tends to shift cyclone genesis eastward, and short heavy-rain episodes can occur within a dry western-Pacific seasonal pattern. Country-specific outlook details require separate dated sources.","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: western/central-eastern rainfall contrast; cyclone-genesis paragraphs; short heavy-rain caveat","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The regional climate passage is verified, but most of the current country spatial note comes from other issues or is portal analysis. Only the narrowed context statement is supported by this citation. regional_climate_context_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0411","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: regional drought/rainfall and cyclone-genesis context","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article supplies regional hazard context, not evidence of the specific water, crop, health, energy, fisheries, cost or infrastructure effects listed for Tuvalu. analytical_risk_context_only; no_local_observed_impact_verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0412","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and health in the Pacific","publisher":"World Health Organization Western Pacific","publication_date":"2015-07-16","exact_url":"https://www.who.int/westernpacific/about/how-we-work/pacific-support/news/detail/16-07-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-health-in-the-pacific","page_or_section":"Historical pathway evidence; use for preparedness design, not as evidence of current 2026 impacts.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0413","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Supports gendered impact pathways and inclusive anticipatory actions; its Pacific country grouping is incomplete and should not be used as the sole rainfall matrix.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0414","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"","source_title":"DREF Final Report — Tuvalu/Pacific: Impending drought","publisher":"International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies","publication_date":"28 April 2022","exact_url":"https://adore.ifrc.org/Download.aspx?FileId=523677","page_or_section":"DREF final report, cover/title page. Historical response documentation; this document does not establish a current Early Action Protocol, trigger approval or activation authority.","last_checked":"8 September 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Lead"},{"evidence_id":"E0415","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"The 2006 Tuvalu National Action Plan sets out a policy baseline for coordinated work on land degradation and drought; current operational responsibilities, thresholds and financing were not verified.","source_title":"Tuvalu National Action Plan to Combat Land Degradation and Drought","publisher":"Government of Tuvalu","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.preventionweb.net/publication/tuvalu-national-action-plan-combat-land-degradation-and-drought","page_or_section":"Official publication page, substantive summary paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Publication record supplies a substantive abstract and government attribution. Its download link opens another download landing page, not readable PDF text. Only plan existence and broad purpose are verified; detailed policy provisions remain unavailable. Official government-policy publication summary, not the full national plan or current operational implementation."},{"evidence_id":"E0416","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"","source_title":"DREF Final Report — Tuvalu/Pacific: Impending drought","publisher":"International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies","publication_date":"28 April 2022","exact_url":"https://adore.ifrc.org/Download.aspx?FileId=523677","page_or_section":"DREF final report, cover/title page. Historical response documentation; this document does not establish a current Early Action Protocol, trigger approval or activation authority.","last_checked":"8 September 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Lead"},{"evidence_id":"E0417","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"Anticipation Hub’s captured Tuvalu directory lists zero active frameworks and activations and describes efforts to explore anticipatory action.","source_title":"Anticipatory Action country profile: Tuvalu","publisher":"Anticipation Hub","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/countries/tuvalu","page_or_section":"Anticipatory action in Tuvalu dashboard and Frameworks and activations counts","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The directory records zero active frameworks/activations and exploratory efforts. It does not establish prospective DREW financing terms or prove absence of national drought plans. Directory maturity metadata only; no DREW financing verification."},{"evidence_id":"E0418","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"FAO anticipatory action guidance for El Niño","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://openknowledge.fao.org/bitstreams/a551eb91-d98b-4a4a-931a-49e9533d288e/download","page_or_section":"PDF page 15 (printed page 13): Asia and Pacific drought and flood/cyclone priority actions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Profile actions are portal recommendations. General agricultural preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0419","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"13 June 2026: broad water-management planning advice and National Meteorological Services paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The detailed action list for Tuvalu is a portal recommendation. Only broad water planning and use of national-service advice appear in the source. broad_source_guidance_only; detailed_actions_and_triggers_are_portal_analysis"},{"evidence_id":"E0420","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0421","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 8: methods table, Water stress watch and Water stress outlook","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"claim_text is blank and the profile has no triggers_to_monitor field; methods and category definitions were checked. Monitoring guidance, not operational triggers."},{"evidence_id":"E0422","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"Use the Rainfall Watch as a screening input alongside local rainfall and water-system data, allowing for island size, topography, geology and soils.","source_title":"Pacific Islands Early Action Rainfall Watch: August 2026","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific RCC","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/content/pacific-islands-early-action-rainfall-watch-august-2026","page_or_section":"PDF page 2, explanatory paragraph below rainfall status map","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact dated PDF recovered via official record. Page 3 restricts distribution: inline reproduction withheld, no image assets proposed. This supports a monitoring recommendation, not an activation threshold. This supports a planning recommendation, not proof that the proposed local action is funded or implemented. PDF page 2, explanatory paragraph below rainfall status map"},{"evidence_id":"E0423","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Rainfall outlook map and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0424","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"historical_forecast","claim_text":"The regional climate-watch map for 29 August–11 September 2026 shows no watch for Vanuatu. This historical watch status is not an observation of rainfall, drought or impacts.","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch, 27 August 2026, Issue 1","publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network","publication_date":"2026-08-27","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-08/Regional-Climate-Watch-27-08-2026-issue1.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 2; Regional Climate Watch issued 27 August 2026, valid 29 August–11 September 2026","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","evidence_kind":"forecast","source_scope_note":"The original source does not support the previous Vanuatu observed-dryness or impact association. The relevant EEZ is shown with the map’s no-watch convention, which is not proof of normal rainfall, absence of drought or absence of impacts.","valid_from":"2026-08-29","valid_to":"2026-09-11"},{"evidence_id":"E0425","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"The 15 September 2026 VMGD homepage capture states that El Niño is established and encourages rainwater-dependent communities to conserve or manage water.","source_title":"Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department operational portal","publisher":"Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.vmgd.gov.vu/","page_or_section":"Climate Status heading/ENSO statement and rainwater-management advice beneath infographic","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The saved homepage is from 15 September and has no historical issue identifier for the climate panel. It cannot verify what was displayed at the 30 August cutoff. Capture-time climate-message metadata only."},{"evidence_id":"E0426","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Forecast maps and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0427","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"SPREP’s 13 June 2026 statement described the South Pacific cyclone-genesis shift away from its usual area near Vanuatu, New Caledonia and the Coral Sea; it did not eliminate cyclone risk.","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: western/central-eastern rainfall contrast; cyclone-genesis paragraphs; short heavy-rain caveat","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The regional climate passage is verified, but most of the current country spatial note comes from other issues or is portal analysis. Only the narrowed context statement is supported by this citation. regional_climate_context_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0428","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: regional drought/rainfall and cyclone-genesis context","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article supplies regional hazard context, not evidence of the specific water, crop, health, energy, fisheries, cost or infrastructure effects listed for Vanuatu. analytical_risk_context_only; no_local_observed_impact_verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0429","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and health in the Pacific","publisher":"World Health Organization Western Pacific","publication_date":"2015-07-16","exact_url":"https://www.who.int/westernpacific/about/how-we-work/pacific-support/news/detail/16-07-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-health-in-the-pacific","page_or_section":"Historical pathway evidence; use for preparedness design, not as evidence of current 2026 impacts.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0430","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Supports gendered impact pathways and inclusive anticipatory actions; its Pacific country grouping is incomplete and should not be used as the sole rainfall matrix.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0431","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"The 15 September 2026 VMGD homepage capture states that El Niño is established and encourages rainwater-dependent communities to conserve or manage water.","source_title":"Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department operational portal","publisher":"Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.vmgd.gov.vu/","page_or_section":"Climate Status heading/ENSO statement and rainwater-management advice beneath infographic","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The operational homepage capture dated 15 September 2026 displays El Niño messaging and water-management advice. This is capture-time messaging, not an archived 30 August bulletin; it cannot establish conditions or issued guidance at that earlier cutoff. Capture-time official public messaging; no earlier-cutoff status, local impact prevalence or implemented-action inference."},{"evidence_id":"E0432","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"The DREW project plans to develop or finalise drought management and response plans, SOPs and thresholds for Vanuatu.","source_title":"CREWS Drought Resilience and Early Warning (DREW) Pacific Project Document","publisher":"CREWS Initiative","publication_date":"2026-01","exact_url":"https://crews-initiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/CREWS-Drought-Resilience-and-Early-Warning-DREW-Pacific-Project-Document.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 16: Outcome 1, Output 1.1, first activity","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Page 16 names this country in planned drought management/response work. It does not establish delivery. Planned plans, SOPs and thresholds only."},{"evidence_id":"E0433","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"Anticipation Hub’s captured Vanuatu directory lists one active cyclone framework with a US$137,010 budget and zero activations.","source_title":"Anticipatory Action country profile: Vanuatu","publisher":"Anticipation Hub","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/countries/vanuatu","page_or_section":"Country dashboard, framework table and cyclone hazard legend","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The country directory records one active cyclone framework, zero activations and a US$137,010 budget. Directory budget is not expenditure, and no drought framework is listed in this captured table. Directory-recorded cyclone framework and budget, not a drought protocol or expenditure outcome."},{"evidence_id":"E0434","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"","source_title":"CREWS Drought Resilience and Early Warning (DREW) Pacific Project Document","publisher":"CREWS Initiative","publication_date":"2026-01","exact_url":"https://crews-initiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/CREWS-Drought-Resilience-and-Early-Warning-DREW-Pacific-Project-Document.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 16: Outcome 1, Output 1.1, first activity","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The maturity classification is portal analysis; the project document describes future work. Planned drought-system strengthening only."},{"evidence_id":"E0435","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"Anticipation Hub’s captured Vanuatu directory lists one active cyclone framework with a US$137,010 budget and zero activations.","source_title":"Anticipatory Action country profile: Vanuatu","publisher":"Anticipation Hub","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/countries/vanuatu","page_or_section":"Country dashboard, framework table and cyclone hazard legend","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The country directory records one active cyclone framework, zero activations and a US$137,010 budget. Directory budget is not expenditure, and no drought framework is listed in this captured table. Directory-recorded cyclone framework and budget, not a drought protocol or expenditure outcome."},{"evidence_id":"E0436","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"FAO anticipatory action guidance for El Niño","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://openknowledge.fao.org/bitstreams/a551eb91-d98b-4a4a-931a-49e9533d288e/download","page_or_section":"PDF page 15 (printed page 13): Asia and Pacific drought and flood/cyclone priority actions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Profile actions are portal recommendations. General agricultural preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0437","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"13 June 2026: broad water-management planning advice and National Meteorological Services paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The detailed action list for Vanuatu is a portal recommendation. Only broad water planning and use of national-service advice appear in the source. broad_source_guidance_only; detailed_actions_and_triggers_are_portal_analysis"},{"evidence_id":"E0438","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-06","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2026/06/gender-alert-the-2026-el-nino","page_or_section":"Risk or preparedness guidance used as the analytical basis for the recommendation","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"E0439","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 8: methods table, Water stress watch and Water stress outlook","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"claim_text is blank and the profile has no triggers_to_monitor field; methods and category definitions were checked. Monitoring guidance, not operational triggers."},{"evidence_id":"E0440","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"Portal recommendation informed by Climate Status heading/ENSO statement and rainwater-management advice beneath infographic.","source_title":"Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department operational portal","publisher":"Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.vmgd.gov.vu/","page_or_section":"Climate Status heading/ENSO statement and rainwater-management advice beneath infographic","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The cited passage informs the portal recommendation; it does not establish that the proposed action, threshold or financing arrangement has been adopted. Analytical preparedness guidance, not evidence of completed measures or an adopted trigger."},{"evidence_id":"E0441","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Rainfall outlook map and narrative, p. 7","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0442","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"Météo-France’s August 2026 bulletin favours below-normal rainfall for Wallis and Futuna during September–November 2026. Individual months may differ from the three-month tendency; this is a forecast and does not demonstrate a financed anticipatory-action protocol.","source_title":"Prévision saisonnière pour le trimestre septembre–octobre–novembre 2026","publisher":"Météo-France Wallis-et-Futuna","publication_date":"2026-08-17","exact_url":"https://meteo.wf/fr/prevision-saisonniere-pour-le-trimestre-septembre-octobre-novembre-2026","page_or_section":"August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The original territorial page is dated 17 August 2026 and links to this exact downloadable bulletin. PDF cover identifies the jurisdiction, August issue and September–November validity, establishing same-issue identity. Only the rainfall text is used; no map-derived percentages inferred. August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart"},{"evidence_id":"E0443","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"ICU311’s 90-day EAR assessment ending 17 August included Wallis and Futuna among seriously or very dry areas.","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 3: EAR regional situation summary, 17 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The exact locality appears in the source’s dated 90-day EAR narrative; other profile facts require their own sources. Dated regional rainfall classification only."},{"evidence_id":"E0444","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"Météo-France’s 10 August 2026 bulletin page reports that July was drier and cooler in Wallis and Futuna, with mean temperatures 0.9°C and 1.3°C below normal respectively.","source_title":"Bulletin Climatique Mensuel – Juillet 2026","publisher":"Météo-France Wallis-et-Futuna","publication_date":"2026-08-10","exact_url":"https://meteo.wf/fr/bulletin-climatique-mensuel-juillet-2026","page_or_section":"Le temps à Wallis-et-Futuna, first paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original territorial page date and July issue match. Its preceding paragraph relates local anomalies to the displaced SPCZ. This is a monthly observation and published monitoring activity, not proof of response implementation. Le temps à Wallis-et-Futuna, first paragraph"},{"evidence_id":"E0445","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"Météo-France’s August 2026 bulletin favours below-normal rainfall for Wallis and Futuna during September–November 2026. Individual months may differ from the three-month tendency; this is a forecast and does not demonstrate a financed anticipatory-action protocol.","source_title":"Prévision saisonnière pour le trimestre septembre–octobre–novembre 2026","publisher":"Météo-France Wallis-et-Futuna","publication_date":"2026-08-17","exact_url":"https://meteo.wf/fr/prevision-saisonniere-pour-le-trimestre-septembre-octobre-novembre-2026","page_or_section":"August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The original territorial page is dated 17 August 2026 and links to this exact downloadable bulletin. PDF cover identifies the jurisdiction, August issue and September–November validity, establishing same-issue identity. Only the rainfall text is used; no map-derived percentages inferred. August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart"},{"evidence_id":"E0446","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"The May 2026 article describes little or no significant average ENSO influence on rainfall and temperature at Wallis and Futuna.","source_title":"El Niño : quels impacts sur les territoires d'outre-mer ?","publisher":"Météo-France","publication_date":"2026-05-13","exact_url":"https://meteofrance.com/actualites/el-nino-quels-impacts-sur-les-territoires-doutre-mer","page_or_section":"ENSO module par ailleurs l’activité cyclonique sur le Pacifique sud — final paragraph on Wallis-et-Futuna","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","source_scope_note":"General ENSO climatology and possible pathways only; no verified2026 impacts, implementation, approval or funding. Portal preparedness recommendations are inference, not source-endorsed actions. Retrieved from the indexed official mobile article dated 13 May; direct endpoint unavailable. This is a text capture, not original HTML.","evidence_kind":"regional_risk_context"},{"evidence_id":"E0447","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño conditions confirmed – SPREP urges coordinated regional response","publisher":"SPREP / Pacific Meteorological Council","publication_date":"2026-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","page_or_section":"Article dated 13 June 2026: regional drought/rainfall and cyclone-genesis context","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The article supplies regional hazard context, not evidence of the specific water, crop, health, energy, fisheries, cost or infrastructure effects listed for Wallis and Futuna. analytical_risk_context_only; no_local_observed_impact_verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0448","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño Impact on Tropical Cyclones in the Pacific","publisher":"SPREP","publication_date":"2026-08-25","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/content/el-nino-impact-tropical-cyclones-pacific","page_or_section":"Catalog metadata and Abstract; record created/modified 25 August 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only"},{"evidence_id":"E0449","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"","source_title":"El Niño and health in the Pacific","publisher":"World Health Organization Western Pacific","publication_date":"2015-07-16","exact_url":"https://www.who.int/westernpacific/about/how-we-work/pacific-support/news/detail/16-07-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-health-in-the-pacific","page_or_section":"Historical pathway evidence; use for preparedness design, not as evidence of current 2026 impacts.","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0450","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"The May 2026 article describes little or no significant average ENSO influence on rainfall and temperature at Wallis and Futuna.","source_title":"El Niño : quels impacts sur les territoires d'outre-mer ?","publisher":"Météo-France","publication_date":"2026-05-13","exact_url":"https://meteofrance.com/actualites/el-nino-quels-impacts-sur-les-territoires-doutre-mer","page_or_section":"ENSO module par ailleurs l’activité cyclonique sur le Pacifique sud — final paragraph on Wallis-et-Futuna","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source passage checked; scope qualified","source_scope_note":"General ENSO climatology and possible pathways only; no verified2026 impacts, implementation, approval or funding. Portal preparedness recommendations are inference, not source-endorsed actions. Retrieved from the indexed official mobile article dated 13 May; direct endpoint unavailable. This is a text capture, not original HTML.","evidence_kind":"regional_risk_context"},{"evidence_id":"E0451","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"The Pacific RCC portal provides regional climate-monitoring resources; country operational arrangements need separate documentation.","source_title":"Pacific RCC Climate Monitoring Portal","publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/rcc/climate-monitoring","page_or_section":"Climate Monitoring introductory paragraph; undated webpage captured 15 September 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only","source_scope_note":"The regional portal documents available climate-monitoring products. It does not verify the profile’s country monitoring implementation, planned strengthening, or absence of an ENSO trigger-action-finance protocol. regional_monitoring_gateway_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0452","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"Météo-France’s August 2026 bulletin favours below-normal rainfall for Wallis and Futuna during September–November 2026. Individual months may differ from the three-month tendency; this is a forecast and does not demonstrate a financed anticipatory-action protocol.","source_title":"Prévision saisonnière pour le trimestre septembre–octobre–novembre 2026","publisher":"Météo-France Wallis-et-Futuna","publication_date":"2026-08-17","exact_url":"https://meteo.wf/fr/prevision-saisonniere-pour-le-trimestre-septembre-octobre-novembre-2026","page_or_section":"August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The original territorial page is dated 17 August 2026 and links to this exact downloadable bulletin. PDF cover identifies the jurisdiction, August issue and September–November validity, establishing same-issue identity. Only the rainfall text is used; no map-derived percentages inferred. August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart"},{"evidence_id":"E0453","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"existing_measures","claim_text":"Météo-France’s 10 August 2026 bulletin page reports that July was drier and cooler in Wallis and Futuna, with mean temperatures 0.9°C and 1.3°C below normal respectively.","source_title":"Bulletin Climatique Mensuel – Juillet 2026","publisher":"Météo-France Wallis-et-Futuna","publication_date":"2026-08-10","exact_url":"https://meteo.wf/fr/bulletin-climatique-mensuel-juillet-2026","page_or_section":"Le temps à Wallis-et-Futuna, first paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original territorial page date and July issue match. Its preceding paragraph relates local anomalies to the displaced SPCZ. This is a monthly observation and published monitoring activity, not proof of response implementation. Le temps à Wallis-et-Futuna, first paragraph"},{"evidence_id":"E0454","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"","source_title":"Anticipatory Action in Asia-Pacific: Regional Overview","publisher":"Anticipation Hub","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/overview/regions-countries/anticipatory-action-in-asia-pacific","page_or_section":"Countries directory and visible Fiji card; undated overview captured 15 September 2026","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Pending exact claim support; source metadata only"},{"evidence_id":"E0455","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","claim_text":"Météo-France’s August 2026 bulletin favours below-normal rainfall for Wallis and Futuna during September–November 2026. Individual months may differ from the three-month tendency; this is a forecast and does not demonstrate a financed anticipatory-action protocol.","source_title":"Prévision saisonnière pour le trimestre septembre–octobre–novembre 2026","publisher":"Météo-France Wallis-et-Futuna","publication_date":"2026-08-17","exact_url":"https://meteo.wf/fr/prevision-saisonniere-pour-le-trimestre-septembre-octobre-novembre-2026","page_or_section":"August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The original territorial page is dated 17 August 2026 and links to this exact downloadable bulletin. PDF cover identifies the jurisdiction, August issue and September–November validity, establishing same-issue identity. Only the rainfall text is used; no map-derived percentages inferred. August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart"},{"evidence_id":"E0456","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"","source_title":"FAO anticipatory action guidance for El Niño","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://openknowledge.fao.org/bitstreams/a551eb91-d98b-4a4a-931a-49e9533d288e/download","page_or_section":"PDF page 15 (printed page 13): Asia and Pacific drought and flood/cyclone priority actions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Profile actions are portal recommendations. General agricultural preparedness only."},{"evidence_id":"E0457","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"Météo-France’s August 2026 bulletin favours below-normal rainfall for Wallis and Futuna during September–November 2026. Individual months may differ from the three-month tendency; this is a forecast and does not demonstrate a financed anticipatory-action protocol.","source_title":"Prévision saisonnière pour le trimestre septembre–octobre–novembre 2026","publisher":"Météo-France Wallis-et-Futuna","publication_date":"2026-08-17","exact_url":"https://meteo.wf/fr/prevision-saisonniere-pour-le-trimestre-septembre-octobre-novembre-2026","page_or_section":"August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The original territorial page is dated 17 August 2026 and links to this exact downloadable bulletin. PDF cover identifies the jurisdiction, August issue and September–November validity, establishing same-issue identity. Only the rainfall text is used; no map-derived percentages inferred. This supports a planning recommendation, not proof that the proposed local action is funded or implemented. August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart"},{"evidence_id":"E0458","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"Météo-France’s 10 August 2026 bulletin page reports that July was drier and cooler in Wallis and Futuna, with mean temperatures 0.9°C and 1.3°C below normal respectively.","source_title":"Bulletin Climatique Mensuel – Juillet 2026","publisher":"Météo-France Wallis-et-Futuna","publication_date":"2026-08-10","exact_url":"https://meteo.wf/fr/bulletin-climatique-mensuel-juillet-2026","page_or_section":"Le temps à Wallis-et-Futuna, first paragraph","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original territorial page date and July issue match. Its preceding paragraph relates local anomalies to the displaced SPCZ. This is a monthly observation and published monitoring activity, not proof of response implementation. This supports a planning recommendation, not proof that the proposed local action is funded or implemented. Le temps à Wallis-et-Futuna, first paragraph"},{"evidence_id":"E0459","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Island Climate Update 311: September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-08-21","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF page 8: methods table, Water stress watch and Water stress outlook","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"claim_text is blank and the profile has no triggers_to_monitor field; methods and category definitions were checked. Monitoring guidance, not operational triggers."},{"evidence_id":"E0460","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"","source_title":"Pacific RCC Climate Monitoring Portal","publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/rcc/climate-monitoring","page_or_section":"Climate Watches: COSPPac Bulletin, Climate Drivers Update and Island Climate Update descriptions","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The source describes monitoring resources but contains no country-specific action or escalation thresholds. The portal’s trigger recommendations are analytical guidance. monitoring_resource_context_only"},{"evidence_id":"E0461","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"Météo-France’s August 2026 bulletin favours below-normal rainfall for Wallis and Futuna during September–November 2026. Individual months may differ from the three-month tendency; this is a forecast and does not demonstrate a financed anticipatory-action protocol.","source_title":"Prévision saisonnière pour le trimestre septembre–octobre–novembre 2026","publisher":"Météo-France Wallis-et-Futuna","publication_date":"2026-08-17","exact_url":"https://meteo.wf/fr/prevision-saisonniere-pour-le-trimestre-septembre-octobre-novembre-2026","page_or_section":"August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart","last_checked":"30 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The original territorial page is dated 17 August 2026 and links to this exact downloadable bulletin. PDF cover identifies the jurisdiction, August issue and September–November validity, establishing same-issue identity. Only the rainfall text is used; no map-derived percentages inferred. This supports a planning recommendation, not proof that the proposed local action is funded or implemented. August 2026 seasonal forecast bulletin, PDF page 1, local rainfall conclusion and probability chart"},{"evidence_id":"E0462","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The February 2016 PEAC bulletin described strong El Niño conditions and reported Taimasa low sea levels in American Samoa.","source_title":"Climate Impacts and Outlook: Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region, 1st Quarter 2016","publisher":"NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center and regional partners","publication_date":"2016-02","exact_url":"https://www.weather.gov/media/peac/impacts/Impacts_Q12016.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 1, Regional Climate Overview for 4th Quarter 2015: El Niño state and rainfall paragraphs; PDF p. 2, Sectoral Impacts: Natural Resources","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Historical climate context and reported low stands; does not itself establish fish-mortality causation."},{"evidence_id":"E0463","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The May 2016 PEAC bulletin reported below-normal American Samoa sea levels and Taimasa reef exposure; several thousand rabbitfish died in April near Utulei Beach Park, with warm water identified as the suspected cause.","source_title":"Climate Impacts and Outlook: Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region, 2nd Quarter 2016","publisher":"NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center and regional partners; hosted by Drought.gov","publication_date":"2016-05","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Pacific%20Region%20Q2%202016%20Climate%20Impacts%20and%20Outlook_FINAL.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 1, map drought callout and Regional Climate Overview: El Niño state, sea level, rainfall and tropical cyclones; PDF p. 2, Natural Resources and adjacent juvenile-rabbitfish photograph caption","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Historical reported conditions and suspected cause, not definitive El Niño attribution for the fish deaths."},{"evidence_id":"E0464","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The August 2016 PEAC bulletin reported continued Taimasa low stands exposing American Samoa’s coral reefs during the second quarter of 2016.","source_title":"Climate Impacts and Outlook: Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region, 3rd Quarter 2016","publisher":"NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center and regional partners; hosted by Drought.gov","publication_date":"2016-08","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Pacific%20Region%20Q3%202016%20Climate%20Impacts%20and%20Outlook_FINAL.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 2, Sectoral Impacts for 2nd Quarter 2016: Natural Resources","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Historical low stands and exposure only."},{"evidence_id":"E0465","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"PEAC’s 2017 retrospective says American Samoa mean sea level fell in the first half of 2016 to its lowest level since the first half of 2010 and describes lowered sea level as a typical local El Niño response.","source_title":"Pacific ENSO Update, 1st Quarter 2017 (Vol. 23, No. 2)","publisher":"Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center, NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific Region","publication_date":"2017-05-15","exact_url":"https://www.weather.gov/media/peac/PEU/PEU_v23_n2.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 6, American Samoa right-column opening paragraph and Figure AS-1 caption","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Retrospective sea-level mechanism; the figure documents a datum-shift correction and is not a fish-kill attribution."},{"evidence_id":"E0466","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The May 2016 bulletin reported that Amos affected American Samoa on 23 April, brought 3.03 inches of rain to Tutuila, toppled trees and caused local power outages, with impacts less severe than feared.","source_title":"Climate Impacts and Outlook: Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region, 2nd Quarter 2016","publisher":"NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center and regional partners; hosted by Drought.gov","publication_date":"2016-05","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Pacific%20Region%20Q2%202016%20Climate%20Impacts%20and%20Outlook_FINAL.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 1, map drought callout and Regional Climate Overview: El Niño state, sea level, rainfall and tropical cyclones; PDF p. 2, Facilities and Infrastructure, first paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B+","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Contemporaneous storm impacts; rainfall amount on p. 1, impacts/date on p. 2."},{"evidence_id":"E0467","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"NASA reported Amos moving past Pago Pago and weakening rapidly on 24 April 2016; earlier updates recorded an NWS high-surf warning and flash-flood watch for American Samoa.","source_title":"Amos (was 20P- Southern Pacific Ocean)","publisher":"NASA Goddard Space Flight Center","publication_date":"2016-04-25","exact_url":"https://www.nasa.gov/missions/goes/amos-was-20p-southern-pacific-ocean/","page_or_section":"NASA, 25 April update paragraph beginning “By 1500 UTC”; 22 April high-surf warning paragraph; 21 April opening paragraph (web lines 272, 287, 297)","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B+","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact NASA article and 25 April 2016 date recovered. Historical storm and forecast/warning occurrence; no ENSO causation established."},{"evidence_id":"E0468","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"In February 2016 PEAC assessed tropical-cyclone chances as remaining elevated across much of the Pacific islands, particularly the eastern basin including American Samoa, during El Niño.","source_title":"Climate Impacts and Outlook: Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region, 1st Quarter 2016","publisher":"NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center and regional partners","publication_date":"2016-02","exact_url":"https://www.weather.gov/media/peac/impacts/Impacts_Q12016.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 1, Regional Climate Overview for 4th Quarter 2015: El Niño state and rainfall paragraphs; PDF p. 2, Regional Outlook for 1st Quarter 2016: final tropical-cyclone paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B+","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. A forecast for the first quarter of 2016; seasonal context, not deterministic attribution of Amos."},{"evidence_id":"E0469","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"AIMS reports bleaching on 74% of inshore and 21% of offshore reefs surveyed in 1998, with severe community bleaching on 11% of surveyed reefs.","source_title":"Coral bleaching events","publisher":"Australian Institute of Marine Science","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.aims.gov.au/research-topics/environmental-issues/coral-bleaching/coral-bleaching-events","page_or_section":"1997–1998 > Great Barrier Reef, aerial survey paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Full AIMS historical body recovered. This verifies observed 1998 bleaching statistics and timing; the passage alone does not establish causal attribution to El Niño. 1997–1998 > Great Barrier Reef, aerial survey paragraph"},{"evidence_id":"E0470","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"NOAA’s overview places bleaching-level warming on the Great Barrier Reef in February–March 1998 during the strong El Niño.","source_title":"1997-1999 ENSO and Coral Bleaching Heat Stress Patterns","publisher":"NOAA Coral Reef Watch","publication_date":"2014-05-07","exact_url":"https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/analyses_guidance/enso_bleaching_97-99_ag_20140507.php","page_or_section":"Overview heat-stress timing paragraph and 1998 section","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to narrower supported statement","source_scope_note":"The article describes Great Barrier Reef bleaching-level thermal stress in early 1998. It does not mention Palm Island or a 70% local mortality estimate. Regional ENSO/thermal-stress context only; Palm Island mortality is unsupported by this source."},{"evidence_id":"E0471","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The AIMS dataset record documents aerial surveys and bleaching-category methods for the 1998 and 2002 Great Barrier Reef events.","source_title":"Coral Bleaching Events 1998 and 2002, Great Barrier Reef","publisher":"Australian Institute of Marine Science, metadata via Research Data Australia","publication_date":"2014","exact_url":"https://researchdata.edu.au/coral-bleaching-events-barrier-reef/1314820","page_or_section":"Full description of the 1998/2002 reef survey dataset","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to narrower supported statement","source_scope_note":"The dataset record describes survey coverage, bleaching categories and SST analysis. Bleaching percentage categories are not coral mortality. It does not verify Palm Island deaths or a 70% loss. Survey/data-method context only; no Palm Island mortality support."},{"evidence_id":"E0472","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"AIMS reported the most severe 2016 bleaching in the northernmost 1,000 km of the Great Barrier Reef and linked the exceptional heat to strong El Niño conditions compounded by global warming.","source_title":"Extent and severity of 2016 coral bleaching on Australia's coral reefs revealed","publisher":"Australian Institute of Marine Science","publication_date":"2017-03-16","exact_url":"https://www.aims.gov.au/information-centre/news-and-stories/extent-and-severity-2016-coral-bleaching-australias-coral-reefs-revealed","page_or_section":"AIMS, 16 March 2017; opening attribution paragraph and first image caption; severity paragraph (web lines 8–18)","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact AIMS article recovered, with displayed 16 March 2017 date. 2016 bleaching occurrence, northern GBR severity, and joint ENSO/global-warming attribution."},{"evidence_id":"E0473","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"AIMS reports record warm Great Barrier Reef sea temperatures and bleaching most widespread and severe in the far northern management area in 2016.","source_title":"Coral bleaching events","publisher":"Australian Institute of Marine Science","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.aims.gov.au/research-topics/environmental-issues/coral-bleaching/coral-bleaching-events","page_or_section":"2016 > Great Barrier Reef, first paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to narrower supported statement","source_scope_note":"The AIMS passage supports record temperatures and severe northern bleaching, but does not itself establish the claimed El Niño contribution. Proposed claim narrows to directly supported observations. 2016 > Great Barrier Reef, first paragraph"},{"evidence_id":"E0474","profile_id":"cook-islands","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"FAO’s November 1997 Cook Islands alert reports destroyed food crops in Pukapuka, Manihiki and Rakahanga after Cyclone Martin, and threats to Manihiki fishing and pearl cultivation from lagoon degradation.","source_title":"FAO/GIEWS Foodcrops & Shortages 12/97 - Oceania: Cook Islands","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Global Information and Early Warning System","publication_date":"1997-11-28","exact_url":"https://www.fao.org/4/w7447e/pays/ocea9712.htm","page_or_section":"Cook Islands entry, paragraph beginning Cook Islands was hit and relief paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The historical alert reports Cyclone Martin damage in the Northern Cooks and lagoon livelihood threats. It provides the impact account; its Cook Islands entry does not itself attribute the cyclone to El Niño. Contemporaneous reported crop/livelihood impacts and relief; separate ENSO context needed."},{"evidence_id":"E0475","profile_id":"cook-islands","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"De Scally’s historical analysis reports that Cyclone Martin left 19 dead, 200 injured and about 700 others affected on Manihiki, with 90% of properties damaged or destroyed.","source_title":"Historical Tropical Cyclone Activity and Impacts in the Cook Islands","publisher":"Pacific Science, University of Hawai'i Press","publication_date":"2008","exact_url":"https://scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/0b66f723-b3b9-4598-9a6a-71d351a02815/content","page_or_section":"PDF p. 13 / printed p. 455, opening left-column paragraph on Cyclone Martin","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to narrower supported statement","source_scope_note":"The original shorthand claim concerns crop destruction and lagoon livelihoods, which this passage does not report; use the source-specific paraphrase instead. This source’s support is the Manihiki human/property toll, separate from the FAO crop/lagoon account."},{"evidence_id":"E0476","profile_id":"cook-islands","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The issue reports eastward-shifted cyclone activity during the 1997–1998 El Niño and three destructive episodes affecting the Cook Islands.","source_title":"Pacific ENSO Update - 1st Quarter 1998 - Vol. 4 No. 1","publisher":"Pacific ENSO Applications Center, University of Hawai'i","publication_date":"1998-Q1","exact_url":"https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/MET/Enso/peu/update.dir/Update-1stQtr98.html","page_or_section":"Current Conditions; Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones 1982–83 and 1997–98; Pohnpei State paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to narrower supported statement","source_scope_note":"The issue gives Cook Islands regional cyclone/ENSO context but does not establish the specific Martin food-crop and Manihiki-lagoon claim. Regional climate/event context, not the asserted Martin local impacts."},{"evidence_id":"E0477","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The first-quarter 1998 issue reports January rainfall at Kolonia of 0.64 inches, 5% of normal, together with water rationing, dry streams and very low river levels.","source_title":"Pacific ENSO Update — 1st Quarter 1998, Vol. 4 No. 1","publisher":"Pacific ENSO Applications Center, University of Hawaiʻi; FSM observations credited to the University of Guam Water and Energy Research Institute","publication_date":"1998","exact_url":"https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/MET/Enso/peu/update.dir/Update-1stQtr98.html","page_or_section":"Current Conditions; Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones 1982–83 and 1997–98; Pohnpei State paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The Pohnpei State paragraph directly gives January Kolonia rainfall and water-rationing/low-flow conditions; it is not a forecast substituted for observations. Dated Pohnpei observations and regional ENSO context."},{"evidence_id":"E0478","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"OCHA’s 27 March 1998 report describes FSM drought-related water shortages/rationing and water delivery and rations for outer islands of Pohnpei, Chuuk and Yap.","source_title":"FSM El Niño Drought OCHA Situation Report No. 1","publisher":"United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs","publication_date":"1998-03-27","exact_url":"https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/micronesia-federated-states/fsm-el-ni%C3%B1o-drought-ocha-situation-report-no-1","page_or_section":"Situation paragraphs 1–4; National response paragraph 5","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Indexed / access limited","source_scope_note":"The situation report describes drought, water rationing, public-facility water shortages and outer-island aid. It does not itself quantify the Pohnpei rainfall collapse; that component is supported by the separate Pacific ENSO Update. Dated reported water impacts and response; Pohnpei rainfall quantity requires separate source."},{"evidence_id":"E0479","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"ESCAP’s table reports that the 1997–98 El Niño drought stressed FSM staple crops and depleted food supplies, while many areas were without water or under rationing.","source_title":"El Niño 2015/2016: Impact Outlook and Policy Implications","publisher":"United Nations ESCAP and Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System","publication_date":"2015-12-02","exact_url":"https://repository.unescap.org/bitstreams/3cc6b346-17de-4d55-aa5f-6b02bc8cd24b/download","page_or_section":"PDF and printed p. 10, section 4.2, Table 1: Federated States of Micronesia row","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to narrower supported statement","source_scope_note":"The source supports drought and rationing but not the Pohnpei rainfall-collapse or outer-island relief details in the shorthand claim. FSM-wide retrospective statement, not Pohnpei-specific rainfall or relief logistics."},{"evidence_id":"E0480","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"FSM’s 8 March 2016 update describes patrol-boat drought assessments and a 2 March shipment of more than 300 cases of bottled water to four Yap outer islands.","source_title":"The Federated States of Micronesia confronts the effects of El Niño","publisher":"Government of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM Information Services)","publication_date":"2016-03-08","exact_url":"https://myfsm.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-federated-states-of-micronesia.html","page_or_section":"FSM updates, 8 March 2016, long paragraph beginning “The Patrol Boat FSS MICRONESIA” (HAPILMOHOL 1 departure sentence)","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Primary-URL indexed full article recovered after intermittent open errors and direct timeout. Contemporaneous drought response, assessments and dispatches; source explicitly frames these as El Niño drought effects."},{"evidence_id":"E0481","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The May 2016 bulletin reported critically low water storage in Yap and shipment of bottled water and reverse-osmosis equipment to the drought-affected region.","source_title":"Climate Impacts and Outlook: Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region, 2nd Quarter 2016","publisher":"NOAA and Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center partners","publication_date":"2016-05","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Pacific%20Region%20Q2%202016%20Climate%20Impacts%20and%20Outlook_FINAL.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 2, Water Resources","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to narrower supported statement","source_scope_note":"The full two-page source does not state that FSM outer-island drinking water had fallen below two weeks or that supply vessels were mobilised. These specifics require another source. Only the broad regional water-shortage/response component is supported."},{"evidence_id":"E0482","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The OCHA/ESCAP/UNDP presentation’s Impact on people slide lists 100,000 people affected by drought in FSM.","source_title":"El Niño: Humanitarian Response in Asia and the Pacific — Impact and Interventions","publisher":"OCHA, United Nations ESCAP, and UNDP","publication_date":"2016-06-07","exact_url":"https://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/El%20Nino%20Presentation_Setting%20the%20Context%20(OCHA-ESCAP-UNDP).pdf","page_or_section":"PDF slide 11, Impact on people, FSM row","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to narrower supported statement","source_scope_note":"The shorthand claim about below-two-week drinking-water stocks and supply vessels is not supported by this presentation. Historical presentation estimate for FSM; not water-reserve duration or logistics."},{"evidence_id":"E0483","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"Fiji’s health-ministry fact sheet reports that the 1997–1998 drought led to a national emergency and directly affected about 48,000 households, approximately 220,000 people.","source_title":"Fact Sheet - Drought and Health","publisher":"Fiji Ministry of Health and Medical Services","publication_date":"2014-09-08","exact_url":"https://www.health.gov.fj/fact-sheet-drought-and-health/","page_or_section":"Overview: El Niño-associated drought history and September 1997–1998 emergency paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The health-ministry fact sheet explicitly associates Fiji drought history with El Niño and reports the 1997–1998 national emergency and estimated affected households. This is a retrospective public-health source, not current health surveillance. Retrospective reported emergency/affected-population estimate and ENSO context."},{"evidence_id":"E0484","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The review records a 57% Nadi rainfall deficit and reports approximately US$63 million in Fiji agricultural losses during the 1997–98 episode.","source_title":"Historical and future drought impacts in the Pacific islands and atolls","publisher":"Climatic Change (Springer Nature)","publication_date":"2021-05-18","exact_url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03112-1","page_or_section":"Table 1, Nadi 1997–1998 row, PDF p. 7; section 3.3.5, PDF p. 12","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original publisher PDF recovered and Table 1/section 3.3.5 checked. Nadi station rainfall and Fiji agricultural losses only; 220,000 affected people is outside this source’s verified support."},{"evidence_id":"E0485","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"IFRC’s 16 October 1998 bulletin estimated 270,000 people affected by Fiji’s drought and said up to half the sugar-cane crop could not be harvested; it described severe income and food impacts on cane-dependent families.","source_title":"FIJI: DROUGHT, Information Bulletin No. 1","publisher":"International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies","publication_date":"1998-10-16","exact_url":"https://www.ifrc.org/docs?file=appeals/rpts98/fj001.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 1, The Disaster, first three paragraphs; PDF p. 2, Needs","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to narrower supported statement","source_scope_note":"The 220,000 wording is not the IFRC bulletin’s number. This does not invalidate a separately attributed 220,000 estimate from another source. IFRC’s dated 270,000 estimate, kept distinct from the Ministry of Health’s separately cited 220,000 estimate."},{"evidence_id":"E0486","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"ESCAP reported 2015 drought-related water shortages in Fiji’s outer islands and remote rural areas, and emergency water deliveries especially to outer islands.","source_title":"El Niño 2015/2016: Impact Outlook and Policy Implications","publisher":"United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific and Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System","publication_date":"2015-12-02","exact_url":"https://repository.unescap.org/bitstreams/3cc6b346-17de-4d55-aa5f-6b02bc8cd24b/download","page_or_section":"PDF and printed p. 11, Table 1: Fiji row; PDF and printed p. 15, Policy Recommendations, final paragraph beginning Already, countries of Asia-Pacific are acting","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B+","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Dated 2015 impacts and response; table also carries separately dated 1997–98 impacts."},{"evidence_id":"E0487","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"Nadi’s April 2014–February 2016 station drought began under neutral ENSO and later overlapped El Niño.","source_title":"Historical and future drought impacts in the Pacific islands and atolls","publisher":"Climatic Change (Springer Nature)","publication_date":"2021-05-18","exact_url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03112-1","page_or_section":"Table 1, 2015–2016 El Niño block, Nadi row, PDF p. 8","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B+","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original Table 1 row checked. Station drought timing, totals and neutral-ENSO onset; later overlap with El Niño."},{"evidence_id":"E0488","profile_id":"french-polynesia","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The September 1998 meteorological account reports Alan’s provisional toll of eight deaths, one missing girl and 20 injuries; torrential rain caused landslides, with Taha’a and Ra’iatea worst affected. It cites 318 mm in 24 hours at Bora Bora, including 108 mm in one hour, and 182 mm at Huahine.","source_title":"Tempete tropicale moderee en Polynesie francaise","publisher":"La Meteorologie / Meteo et Climat; meteorological observations from Meteo-France","publication_date":"1998-09","exact_url":"https://lameteorologie.fr/admin/api/public/api/meteo/website/downloadArticlePDF/meteo_1998_23_97","page_or_section":"PDF p. 1 / printed p. 97, Tempête tropicale modérée en Polynésie française: opening and Alan rainfall/landslide paragraphs","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B+","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Historical Alan impacts and provisional figures; the article itself does not supply El Niño attribution."},{"evidence_id":"E0489","profile_id":"french-polynesia","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The 1999 regional review describes French Polynesia’s November 1997–April 1998 cyclone season as deeply marked by El Niño and reports an aggregate toll across Martin, Osea, Wes, Ursula, Veli and Alan of 27 deaths, over 50 injuries and hundreds of buildings destroyed.","source_title":"Zone Pacifique - L'Annee francophone internationale 1999","publisher":"L'Annee francophone internationale; archived by IRD Horizon","publication_date":"1999","exact_url":"https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/pleins_textes_7/b_fdi_53-54/010016528.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 10 / printed p. 258, Polynésie française, introductory paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B+","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to narrower supported statement","source_scope_note":"The shorthand Alan landslide claim exceeds this source’s support: its figures and El Niño framing cover the season collectively. Seasonal association and multi-storm aggregate only; Alan-specific impacts are supported by the meteorological article."},{"evidence_id":"E0490","profile_id":"french-polynesia","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The issue places French Polynesia within heightened 1997–1998 ENSO-season cyclone activity and reports three destructive episodes.","source_title":"Pacific ENSO Update - 1st Quarter 1998 - Vol. 4 No. 1","publisher":"Pacific ENSO Applications Center, University of Hawai'i","publication_date":"1998-Q1","exact_url":"https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/MET/Enso/peu/update.dir/Update-1stQtr98.html","page_or_section":"Current Conditions; Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones 1982–83 and 1997–98; Pohnpei State paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B+","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to narrower supported statement","source_scope_note":"French Polynesia storm episodes are discussed, but the asserted Alan torrential-rain/landslide fatalities are not documented in the selected source. Regional climate/event context only."},{"evidence_id":"E0491","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The report describes significant wind damage across Guam’s northern two-thirds and more than seven hours of typhoon-force winds across most of that area, within the 1997 ENSO-era Paka event.","source_title":"SUPER TYPHOON PAKA'S (1997) SURFACE WINDS OVER GUAM","publisher":"NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Hurricane Research Division","publication_date":"1998-08-17","exact_url":"https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project98/sh_proj1.html","page_or_section":"Section 2 storm history; Section 3a Guam damage and Rota observations; Section 5 duration; Appendix D Guam outer-eyewall rain","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The report supports strong-ENSO/westerly-burst formation context, Guam damage and wind duration, and separate Rota observations. Appendix D heavy rain is explicitly over northern Guam, so it must not be reassigned to Rota/CNMI. Historical storm formation, location-specific exposure and observations; no transfer of Guam rainfall/damage to Rota."},{"evidence_id":"E0492","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The Federal Register notice records a Guam major-disaster declaration effective 17 December 1997 for damage from Typhoon Paka and associated weather and coastal hazards.","source_title":"Territory of Guam; Major Disaster and Related Determinations","publisher":"Federal Emergency Management Agency, Federal Register via U.S. Government Publishing Office","publication_date":"1998-01-09","exact_url":"https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-1998-01-09/html/98-548.htm","page_or_section":"Federal Register notice, summary/effective date and Presidential declaration hazard paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The notice records the 17 December 1997 major-disaster declaration for Guam and identifies Paka and associated rain, wind, surf and tidal surges. Federal-assistance authorization is not proof of disbursement or local quantified loss. Official declaration and named hazards; no completed-aid or ENSO-causation inference."},{"evidence_id":"E0493","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"PEAC’s 2010 special bulletin states that brush fires scorched 12% of Guam’s land area during the 1998 drought and explains that El Niño typically extends Guam/CNMI’s dry season into June.","source_title":"Special Edition ENSO Bulletin","publisher":"Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center, NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific Region","publication_date":"2010-02-01","exact_url":"https://www.weather.gov/media/peac/PEU/PEUSB12010.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 2, Guam/CNMI local forecast and ENSO-Critical Period Climate Outlook","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Historical burned-area statistic plus a general regional mechanism; does not describe 2026 fire conditions."},{"evidence_id":"E0494","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The 2026 WERI report describes Guam’s 1998 post-peak El Niño drought, annual rainfall of about 60 inches, water-resource concerns and the establishment of hydrologic monitoring programmes.","source_title":"Hydrologic Analysis of the Deep Observation Wells in the Northern Guam Lens Aquifer","publisher":"Guam Hydrologic Survey / Water and Environmental Research Institute, University of Guam","publication_date":"2026-05-12","exact_url":"https://guamhydrologicsurvey.uog.edu/2026/05/12/weri-technical-report-189/","page_or_section":"Statement of Water Resource Concern, first paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original report webpage recovered, including the complete cited water-resource section. The statement is a historical report account, not current aquifer status. Statement of Water Resource Concern, first paragraph"},{"evidence_id":"E0495","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"NOAA’s Paka assessment records 20 inches of Guam rain in 48 hours, several thousand people made homeless, heavy vegetation damage and damage estimates above US$600 million.","source_title":"Super Typhoon Paka, December 2 thru 21, 1997: Service Assessment","publisher":"United States National Weather Service, Pacific Region / NOAA","publication_date":"1998-01-01","exact_url":"https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/26766/noaa_26766_DS1.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 17 / printed p. 11, rainfall paragraph and Deaths and Damages Guam/Rota paragraph; PDF p. 22 / printed p. 16, opening paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. December 1997 multi-hazard storm impacts; the assessment does not apportion the total to rainfall or El Niño alone."},{"evidence_id":"E0496","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The report describes Paka’s ENSO-era formation, significant damage in Guam’s northern two-thirds and heavy rain associated with the outer eyewall over northern Guam.","source_title":"Super Typhoon Paka's (1997) Surface Winds over Guam","publisher":"NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Hurricane Research Division","publication_date":"1998-08-17","exact_url":"https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project98/sh_proj1.html","page_or_section":"Section 2 storm history; Section 3a Guam damage and Rota observations; Section 5 duration; Appendix D Guam outer-eyewall rain","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The report supports strong-ENSO/westerly-burst formation context, Guam damage and wind duration, and separate Rota observations. Appendix D heavy rain is explicitly over northern Guam, so it must not be reassigned to Rota/CNMI. Historical storm formation, location-specific exposure and observations; no transfer of Guam rainfall/damage to Rota."},{"evidence_id":"E0497","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The February 2016 bulletin reported Guam’s November–January rainfall at 66% of average, advised conservation, and reported vegetation/crop yellowing and increased grass fires during severe drought conditions in Guam and other listed islands.","source_title":"Climate Impacts and Outlook: Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region, 1st Quarter 2016","publisher":"NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center and regional partners","publication_date":"2016-02","exact_url":"https://www.weather.gov/media/peac/impacts/Impacts_Q12016.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 1, Regional Climate Overview for 4th Quarter 2015: El Niño state and rainfall paragraphs; PDF p. 2, Sectoral Impacts: Water Resources and Agriculture","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Guam-specific rainfall and shared regional impact observations, historically dated."},{"evidence_id":"E0498","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The May 2016 bulletin put Guam’s February–April rainfall at 65% of average and described continued moderate drought; it expected lingering El Niño effects through much of 2016.","source_title":"Climate Impacts and Outlook: Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region, 2nd Quarter 2016","publisher":"NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center and regional partners; hosted by Drought.gov","publication_date":"2016-05","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Pacific%20Region%20Q2%202016%20Climate%20Impacts%20and%20Outlook_FINAL.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 1, map drought callout and Regional Climate Overview: El Niño state, sea level, rainfall and tropical cyclones; PDF p. 2, Regional Outlook for 2nd Quarter 2016, red introductory paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Historical Guam rainfall/drought and a contemporaneous outlook."},{"evidence_id":"E0499","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"Reuters reported more than 700,000 tonnes of tuna caught in Kiribati waters in 2014 and a contemporary ADB estimate of A$150 million in 2015 licence revenue.","source_title":"El Niño is bittersweet for disappearing Kiribati as it battles climate change","publisher":"Reuters / Thomson Reuters Foundation","publication_date":"2015-12-03","exact_url":"https://news.trust.org/item/20151203061953-f2akb","page_or_section":"Reuters reporting republished by Fiji Times, 5 December 2015, paragraphs 2–6 and access-fee paragraph (web lines 98–104, 115)","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original URL unavailable; Reuters-authored text recovered through publicly accessible syndication. Reuters reporting of catch shift, license access price and dated ADB revenue estimate; exact original Trust page not captured."},{"evidence_id":"E0500","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"IMF considered strong El Niño a likely contributor to tuna concentration and increased Vessel Day demand, while stating the separate contributions could not be clearly delineated.","source_title":"Kiribati: 2016 Article IV Consultation—Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kiribati","publisher":"International Monetary Fund","publication_date":"2016-09-09","exact_url":"https://www.elibrary.imf.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/002/2016/292/article-A001-en.pdf","page_or_section":"Country Report 16/292, staff report printed p. 8 (PDF p. 12), footnote 4","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Indexed / access limited","source_scope_note":"Same report recovered from IMF’s official publication files. Qualified ENSO/tuna/catch/Vessel-Day-demand explanation; not proof of ENSO’s isolated revenue contribution."},{"evidence_id":"E0501","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"ADB’s December 2015 monitor estimated Kiribati fishing-license revenue at about A$140 million in 2014 and expected A$150 million in 2015, with an expected 2015 fiscal surplus of A$57.7 million.","source_title":"Pacific Economic Monitor — December 2015","publisher":"Asian Development Bank","publication_date":"2015-12","exact_url":"https://www.laohamutuk.org/DVD/2015/ADBPEMDec2015.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF and printed p. 7, Country Updates: Kiribati, first bullet","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to narrower supported statement","source_scope_note":"This source verifies revenues, not the eastward tuna-shift mechanism or a sole El Niño cause; those are attributed to other sources in the full story. Historical fiscal estimates/projections; the monitor separately mentions the vessel-day scheme."},{"evidence_id":"E0502","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The study’s 26-quadrat comparison found declines in reef structural complexity after the 2015–16 El Niño-associated heat stress; its atoll-wide coral-cover-loss estimate is cited as unpublished data.","source_title":"Effects of bleaching-associated mass coral mortality on reef structural complexity across a gradient of local disturbance","publisher":"Scientific Reports, Nature Portfolio","publication_date":"2019-02-21","exact_url":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-37713-1","page_or_section":"Abstract; Methods: Study site and design; Results: structural complexity metrics; Introduction paragraph beginning “During the 2015-2016 El Niño”","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original Nature full article bytes recovered and checked against PMC same-DOI text. Study design and measured structural-complexity decline after heat stress; authors’ ENSO attribution and background coral-cover estimate distinguished."},{"evidence_id":"E0503","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The article reports more than 80% coral-cover loss around Kiritimati during the 2015–16 El Niño bleaching event, citing Baum’s unpublished data.","source_title":"PubMed Central full-text record for the Scientific Reports article","publisher":"U.S. National Library of Medicine","publication_date":"2019-02-21","exact_url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6385266/","page_or_section":"Introduction, paragraph beginning “During the 2015-2016 El Niño” (web line 111)","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact PMC original full-text record recovered. Reported Kiritimati coral-cover loss during the bleaching event, with unpublished-data qualification."},{"evidence_id":"E0504","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"NOAA Coral Reef Watch’s 3 May 2016 update reported persistent Kiribati sea temperatures as high as 31.4°C since June 2015, widespread coral mortality, and ongoing bleaching stress tied to the strong El Niño.","source_title":"Pacific Climate Update","publisher":"NOAA Coral Reef Watch","publication_date":"2016-05-03","exact_url":"https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/analyses_guidance/pacific_climate_updates/pacific_climate_update_coral_reef_watch_20160503.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 2, central equatorial Pacific/Kiribati paragraph following Figure 2","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to narrower supported statement","source_scope_note":"The >80% Kiritimati coral-cover loss in the story is supported by a separate research paper, not this NOAA update. Contemporaneous Kiribati/Line Islands thermal-stress context; not a measured Kiritimati-specific loss of more than 80% cover."},{"evidence_id":"E0505","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"Ouégoa’s 6 October 2015 order linked critical drought and bushfire concern to the active Pacific El Niño and requested reduced secondary and domestic water use, leak detection and rainwater recovery, with particular vigilance in Bondé and Paimboas.","source_title":"Arrêté n° 2015-08 du 6 octobre 2015 portant mesures limitatives de la consommation d'eau courante","publisher":"Commune of Ouégoa, published in the Journal officiel de la Nouvelle-Calédonie","publication_date":"2015-12-29","exact_url":"https://mobi-juridoc.gouv.nc/juridoc/jdjonc.nsf/1239F02CAD9101294B257F2F0073A37A/$file/9229.pdf?openelement=","page_or_section":"PDF p. 102 / Journal officiel printed p. 12306, right column: Commune de Ouégoa, arrêté 2015-08 of 6 October 2015, Articles 1–5","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Historical municipal water-conservation order; journal publication date 29 December 2015 is distinct from order date."},{"evidence_id":"E0506","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The 1998 New Zealand review records an April 21 MAF estimate of NZ$256 million in 1997/98 farm-gate drought losses plus NZ$169 million in 1998/99 carry-over losses, NZ$425 million total, and describes Marlborough as the worst-hit pastoral region.","source_title":"The 1997/98 El Niño Event: Impacts, Responses and Outlook for New Zealand","publisher":"Ministry of Research, Science and Technology; prepared by Reid Basher, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research","publication_date":"1998-04","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-06/Reconstituted%20MORST%20El%20Nin%CC%83o%20report.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 5 / printed p. 1, Executive Summary: typical New Zealand pattern and other natural variability; PDF p. 6 / printed p. 2, Executive Summary, second paragraph; PDF p. 15 / printed p. 11, Agricultural economic impacts and Pastoral","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Historical drought-cost estimate; report expressly cautions against separating all impacts into El Niño versus non-El Niño causes."},{"evidence_id":"E0507","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The review reports wet West Coast and alpine conditions, surges over Punakaiki gravel ridges, reworked Okarito lagoon openings, high or flooded Waimakariri/Rakaia flows, full-to-spilling hydro lakes in March and lower Waitaki flood warnings.","source_title":"The 1997/98 El Nino Event: Impacts, Responses and Outlook for New Zealand","publisher":"New Zealand Ministry of Research, Science and Technology; prepared by NIWA","publication_date":"1998-04-01","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-06/Reconstituted%20MORST%20El%20Nin%CC%83o%20report.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 5 / printed p. 1, Executive Summary: typical New Zealand pattern and other natural variability; PDF p. 6 / printed p. 2, Executive Summary, second paragraph; PDF p. 21 / printed p. 17, Water and soils continuation and Hydroelectricity in good shape box","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Historical subnational wet impacts linked to increased westerlies, with the report’s explicit multi-cause attribution caveat."},{"evidence_id":"E0508","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"NIWA explains that stronger summer westerlies tend to favour wetter western and drier eastern New Zealand conditions, while ENSO accounts for less than a quarter of seasonal rainfall/temperature variance at most locations.","source_title":"The impact of El Nino and La Nina on New Zealand's climate","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/el-nino-and-la-nina/impact-el-nino-and-la-nina-new-zealands-climate","page_or_section":"Opening variance caveat and Typical El Niño impacts section","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The explanation gives the summer west-wet/east-dry tendency and an explicit less-than-25% seasonal variance caveat at most locations. These are typical relationships, not deterministic forecasts or proof for every historical event. General mechanism and uncertainty, not event-specific impact attribution."},{"evidence_id":"E0509","profile_id":"niue","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"Niue’s diagnostic contrasts severe 1983 ENSO drought impacts with a less-severe 1997–98 drought, when all households had mains water from the freshwater lens; it notes that drought-cost records could not be located for the assessment.","source_title":"Sustainable Integrated Water Resources and Wastewater Management Project in the Pacific Island Countries: Niue — IWRM Diagnostic Report","publisher":"Government of Niue Public Works Department / SOPAC","publication_date":"2007","exact_url":"https://niue-data.sprep.org/system/files/IWRM%20DIAGNOSTIC%20REPORT-%20niue-%20jan07%202nd.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF and printed p. 21, section 3.2 Island Vulnerability, final paragraph; PDF and printed p. 22, section 3.2 opening continuation and section 3.2.1 final paragraph; PDF and printed p. 23, section 3.2.1 opening continuation","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Historical resilience account and evidence limitation; less severe does not mean no drought, and unavailable records do not mean zero economic loss."},{"evidence_id":"E0510","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The CNMI CDBG-MIT plan records that Paka crossed near Rota with heavy rain less than a month after Keith, and that Rota was declared a major disaster area with damage to homes, public facilities, infrastructure and agriculture.","source_title":"Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Community Development Block Grant Mitigation (CDBG-MIT) Program: CDBG-MIT Action Plan","publisher":"Northern Marianas Housing Corporation; approved by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development","publication_date":"2023-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.cnmi-cdbgdr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/CNMI-CDBG-MIT-AP-NSA-No.-1-06.13.2023.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 35 / printed p. 23, Typhoon History, opening paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Rota-specific December 1997 Paka impacts; no attribution of total damage to rainfall or El Niño alone."},{"evidence_id":"E0511","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The report documents Paka’s December 1997 approach to Guam and Rota, Rota airport wind observations and the strong-ENSO/westerly-wind-burst formation context.","source_title":"SUPER TYPHOON PAKA'S (1997) SURFACE WINDS OVER GUAM","publisher":"NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Hurricane Research Division","publication_date":"1998-08-17","exact_url":"https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project98/sh_proj1.html","page_or_section":"Section 2 storm history; Section 3a Guam damage and Rota observations; Section 5 duration; Appendix D Guam outer-eyewall rain","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The report supports strong-ENSO/westerly-burst formation context, Guam damage and wind duration, and separate Rota observations. Appendix D heavy rain is explicitly over northern Guam, so it must not be reassigned to Rota/CNMI. Rota exposure/chronology and formation context; no Guam-only damage or rainfall transferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0512","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The CNMI CDBG-MIT plan describes Paka’s heavy rain near Rota and extensive damage to homes, public facilities, infrastructure and agriculture, with Rota declared a major disaster area.","source_title":"Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands CDBG-MIT Action Plan, Non-Substantial Amendment No. 01","publisher":"Northern Marianas Housing Corporation; approved by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development","publication_date":"2023-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.cnmi-cdbgdr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/CNMI-CDBG-MIT-AP-NSA-No.-1-06.13.2023.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 35 / printed p. 23, Typhoon History, opening paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Rota-specific historical multi-hazard impacts; extreme gust values intentionally omitted."},{"evidence_id":"E0513","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"Paka’s chronology and Rota wind observations are documented, while the report’s outer-eyewall heavy-rain passage refers to northern Guam.","source_title":"Super Typhoon Paka's (1997) Surface Winds over Guam","publisher":"NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Hurricane Research Division","publication_date":"1998-08-17","exact_url":"https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project98/sh_proj1.html","page_or_section":"Section 2 storm history; Section 3a Guam damage and Rota observations; Section 5 duration; Appendix D Guam outer-eyewall rain","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The report supports strong-ENSO/westerly-burst formation context, Guam damage and wind duration, and separate Rota observations. Appendix D heavy rain is explicitly over northern Guam, so it must not be reassigned to Rota/CNMI. Rota chronology/exposure plus regional ENSO context; Guam rainfall is separately bounded."},{"evidence_id":"E0514","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The February 2016 bulletin reported Saipan’s November–January rainfall at 74% of average, advised CNMI water conservation, and reported vegetation/crop yellowing and increased grass fires in CNMI and other listed islands.","source_title":"Climate Impacts and Outlook: Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region, 1st Quarter 2016","publisher":"NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center and regional partners","publication_date":"2016-02","exact_url":"https://www.weather.gov/media/peac/impacts/Impacts_Q12016.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 1, Regional Climate Overview for 4th Quarter 2015: El Niño state and rainfall paragraphs; PDF p. 2, Sectoral Impacts: Water Resources and Agriculture","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Saipan rainfall; CNMI/region impact observations, not a quantified Saipan-only damage assessment."},{"evidence_id":"E0515","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The May 2016 bulletin described continued moderate drought in CNMI and commonly observed brush and grass fires in Saipan, while warning that El Niño effects would persist through much of 2016.","source_title":"Climate Impacts and Outlook: Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region, 2nd Quarter 2016","publisher":"NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center and regional partners; hosted by Drought.gov","publication_date":"2016-05","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Pacific%20Region%20Q2%202016%20Climate%20Impacts%20and%20Outlook_FINAL.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 1, map drought callout and Regional Climate Overview: El Niño state, sea level, rainfall and tropical cyclones; PDF p. 2, Agriculture and red opening outlook paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Historical Saipan/CNMI conditions and an outlook at the report date."},{"evidence_id":"E0516","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The August 2016 PEAC bulletin reported Saipan rainfall at 53% of average for May–July and continued moderate drought in Saipan.","source_title":"Climate Impacts and Outlook: Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region, 3rd Quarter 2016","publisher":"NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center and regional partners; hosted by Drought.gov","publication_date":"2016-08","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Pacific%20Region%20Q3%202016%20Climate%20Impacts%20and%20Outlook_FINAL.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 1, moderate-drought map callout and Regional Climate Overview rainfall paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Saipan-specific historical observation."},{"evidence_id":"E0517","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"Palau’s September 2013 communication reports record-low March 1998 rainfall and complete taro-crop loss in Angaur, Peleliu and much of western Babeldaob during the 1998 ENSO event.","source_title":"Republic of Palau Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change","publisher":"Government of the Republic of Palau / UNFCCC","publication_date":"2013-09","exact_url":"https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Final_Palau%20National%20Communication.pdf","page_or_section":"Second National Communication, cover September 2013; §3.5.2 PDF p. 59; §3.7.2 PDF p. 66 (web lines 1583–1590, 1765–1773)","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"UNFCCC PDF passage and September 2013 cover recovered via primary web retrieval after direct requests failed. Record-low March 1998 rain, depleted water/agricultural impacts, and geographically specified taro loss; source’s own ENSO attribution."},{"evidence_id":"E0518","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The official attachment, dated September 2013, supports the specified 1998 taro and water impacts; the repository entry alone is not impact evidence.","source_title":"Palau. Second National Communication","publisher":"UNFCCC document catalogue","publication_date":"2019-08-27","exact_url":"https://unfccc.int/documents/199648","page_or_section":"Second National Communication, cover September 2013; §3.5.2 PDF p. 59; §3.7.2 PDF p. 66 (web lines 1583–1590, 1765–1773)","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Metadata URL failed, but its named official attachment was recovered and read. Do not treat the metadata date as the report’s issue date. Official attachment’s historical passage; metadata publication date not independently verified in this pass."},{"evidence_id":"E0519","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"Palau’s report records 17.65 inches of Koror rainfall over four months, severe supply declines, emergency declaration on 22 March 2016, well activation and water hauling, and restoration of 24-hour Koror/Airai supply on 9 May. Rationing began on 12 March with four morning hours and five evening hours, later tightening to one three-hour window per group.","source_title":"Drought Report: Republic of Palau","publisher":"Government of the Republic of Palau, National Emergency Committee","publication_date":"2016-06","exact_url":"https://www.palaugov.pw/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Drought-Report-Final.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 5, numbered chronology items 1–4; PDF p. 6, paragraph beginning Given the above reports and information; PDF p. 7, May 9 service restoration paragraph and concluding NEC paragraph; PDF p. 8, Augmentation of Available Water Supply","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Passages verified; the full story’s two-five-hour-window wording must be corrected to four hours morning and five hours evening. Source does not independently establish the ENSO mechanism cited to NOAA elsewhere. Historical operations and quantities; other states still faced shortfalls after Koror/Airai service restoration."},{"evidence_id":"E0520","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"NOAA’s April 2016 article describes severe Palau rainfall deficits, a dried Ngerimel Dam, low Ngerikiil River levels and water rationing.","source_title":"Drought in the Pacific","publisher":"NOAA Climate.gov","publication_date":"2016-04-20","exact_url":"https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/drought-pacific","page_or_section":"Koror/Palau drought and water-rationing paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to narrower supported statement","source_scope_note":"The full saved article is available and describes severe rainfall deficits, low drinking-water sources and rationing. It does not state that Koror–Airai production was one-fifth of normal. 2016 Palau drought/water-supply context; the one-fifth production ratio is unsupported."},{"evidence_id":"E0521","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The PNG assessment associates the 1997 drought with severe ENSO and reports an 80% decline in garden produce and 1.2 million rural people without locally available food by year-end, alongside water, fire, power and mining disruption. High-altitude food supplies did not return to normal until June–July 1998.","source_title":"Stabilization of Upland Agriculture under El Nino-induced Climatic Risk: Impact Assessment and Mitigation Measures in Papua New Guinea","publisher":"CGPRT Centre, a subsidiary body of UNESCAP","publication_date":"2003-09","exact_url":"https://repository.unescap.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/57a91818-b708-46e3-bfe2-c4bea7dc8c65/content","page_or_section":"PDF p. 17 / printed p. xv, Executive Summary; PDF p. 36 / printed p. 18, chapter 3, opening recovery paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. National rural estimates plus specifically high-altitude recovery timing; no universal ENSO impact assumption."},{"evidence_id":"E0522","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The UN’s 2016 PNG analysis reports a nationwide government estimate of 2.2–2.4 million affected by drought/frost in 2015–16 and a separate early-2016 WFP estimate of around 180,000 people in severe food insecurity, naming Highlands and other affected areas.","source_title":"United Nations in Papua New Guinea: Common Country Analysis","publisher":"United Nations in Papua New Guinea","publication_date":"2016-10","exact_url":"https://papuanewguinea.un.org/en/download/4106/21166","page_or_section":"PDF and printed p. 47, Environmental Risks, paragraph containing During the 2015–2016 El Niño","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Two distinct historical assessments and denominators; not 2026 counts or a measured ENSO causal fraction."},{"evidence_id":"E0523","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"IFRC’s 5 September 2015 PNG bulletin reports severe El Niño conditions, damaged or destroyed staple gardens and drying water sources in named Highlands areas, with most Highlands provinces in Category 3 or 4 drought and some water only available at a distance.","source_title":"Papua New Guinea: Drought and Frost - Information Bulletin","publisher":"International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies","publication_date":"2015-09-05","exact_url":"https://www.ifrc.org/docs?file=Appeals/15/IBPNG050915.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 1, The Situation, left column; PDF p. 2, frost/crop-impact paragraph and National Disaster Response Committee paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Dated observed/reported crop and water impacts; not a current condition assessment."},{"evidence_id":"E0524","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"USGS reports that Laura groundwater supplied 90% of Majuro drinking water in March 1998 and 64% in May during the drought emergency.","source_title":"Effects of the 1998 Drought on the Freshwater Lens in the Laura Area, Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Islands Water Science Center","publication_date":"2005-01-01","exact_url":"https://www.usgs.gov/publications/effects-1998-drought-freshwater-lens-laura-area-majuro-atoll-republic-marshall-islands","page_or_section":"USGS publication abstract, second paragraph (web line 7); SIR 2005-5098","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact USGS publication abstract and 2005 metadata read. Historical Majuro/Laura groundwater role and freshwater-lens measurements; not ENSO attribution by itself."},{"evidence_id":"E0525","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The communication describes 1997–98 El Niño water shortages, community reliance on groundwater and FEMA emergency food, desalination and rain-catchment assistance.","source_title":"Initial Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change","publisher":"Government of the Republic of the Marshall Islands / UNFCCC","publication_date":"2000-09","exact_url":"https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/marnc1.pdf","page_or_section":"Initial National Communication, Water Resources, PDF pp. 46–47, especially printed p. 47 (web lines 1335–1347)","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original UNFCCC text recovered; direct download returned an interstitial, which is not treated as original PDF. National drought/WASH response context and explicit El Niño framing; Laura drinking-water shares are outside this excerpt."},{"evidence_id":"E0526","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"NOAA’s assessment reports Paka damage to hundreds of homes and breadfruit, banana and pandanus crops in Ailinglaplap, Arno, Majuro, Mili and Jaluit, and anticipated that the concurrent ENSO drought would lengthen recovery.","source_title":"Super Typhoon Paka, December 2 thru 21, 1997: Service Assessment","publisher":"United States National Weather Service, Pacific Region / NOAA","publication_date":"1998-01-01","exact_url":"https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/26766/noaa_26766_DS1.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 17 / printed p. 11, Deaths and Damages, Marshall Islands paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Historical atoll-level damage and the report’s prospective recovery judgement, not observed recovery duration."},{"evidence_id":"E0527","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The paper lists 10 December 1997 Paka inundation for Majuro, Ailinglaplap and Namu under driver class II; this is not a cyclone category.","source_title":"Diagnosis of historical inundation events in the Marshall Islands to assist early warning systems","publisher":"Natural Hazards (Springer Nature); authors from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and RMI National Weather Service","publication_date":"2019-08-10","exact_url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-019-03735-9","page_or_section":"Table 1, History of significant inundation events, Paka row; author-copy web line 614; §3.4 lines 1259–1274","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact publisher metadata recovered; Table 1 recovered in publicly accessible coauthor-posted original paper. Paka date, inundation classification and named atolls; no claim that El Niño caused this storm or flooding."},{"evidence_id":"E0528","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"UNDRR’s 2022 report states US$80 million in crop damage and 70% of houses affected on Ailinglaplap; the damage category is not reconciled with NOAA’s property-damage record.","source_title":"Disaster Risk Reduction in the Republic of the Marshall Islands: Status Report 2022","publisher":"United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Sub-Regional Office for the Pacific","publication_date":"2022-09-17","exact_url":"https://www.preventionweb.net/media/83379/download","page_or_section":"PDF and printed p. 14, first paragraph (not p. 29)","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original UNDRR PDF recovered through its normal documented download redirect. Reported Paka damage and housing impact, with correct page and source attribution; ENSO causation not supported."},{"evidence_id":"E0529","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"PEAC’s 2014 update describes RMI tropical-cyclone risk as strongly dependent on El Niño and lists Paka in December 1997 among historical El Niño-related cyclones.","source_title":"Pacific ENSO Update, Volume 20 Number 3","publisher":"Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center, NOAA/National Weather Service","publication_date":"2014-08-26","exact_url":"https://www.weather.gov/media/peac/PEU/PEU_v20_n3.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 11, Republic of the Marshall Islands Climate Outlook, lower left column continuing at upper right","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Official ENSO-conditioned risk and historical association; not sole attribution of Paka’s track, intensity or losses."},{"evidence_id":"E0530","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The assessment’s executive summary reports 21,000 people affected by May 2016 across urban and outer-island RMI.","source_title":"Republic of the Marshall Islands, Post Disaster Needs Assessment of the 2015-2016 Drought","publisher":"Government of the Republic of the Marshall Islands, GFDRR, and UNDP; catalogued by UNDRR PreventionWeb","publication_date":"2017","exact_url":"https://www.preventionweb.net/publication/documents-and-publications/republic-marshall-islands-post-disaster-needs-assessment","page_or_section":"PreventionWeb/IRP abstract, opening paragraph; official report Executive Summary PDF p. 12","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original abstract plus government report recovered from official ILO repository. May 2016 affected-person/household snapshot and source’s ENSO attribution."},{"evidence_id":"E0531","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"By May 2016, the PDNA executive summary estimated 21,000 people affected; other sections used a broader 53,158-person count.","source_title":"Drought 2015-2016 Marshall Islands Post Disaster Needs Assessment","publisher":"Government of the Republic of the Marshall Islands, GFDRR, and UNDP","publication_date":"2017","exact_url":"https://www.preventionweb.net/media/77824/download","page_or_section":"Executive Summary, PDF p. 12, first paragraph; §1.1 PDF p. 20; cover February 2017","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original full report recovered at ILO; title, lead agencies and February 2017 date checked. Dated May 2016 snapshot; broader report counts explicitly distinguished."},{"evidence_id":"E0532","profile_id":"samoa","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The review places Apia’s drought after early-1998 cyclone rainfall; its 80% food-crop statement groups four drought years and is not a 1997-only estimate.","source_title":"Historical and future drought impacts in the Pacific islands and atolls","publisher":"Climatic Change (Springer Nature)","publication_date":"2021-05-18","exact_url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03112-1","page_or_section":"Table 1, Apia 1997–1998 row, PDF p. 7; section 3.3.5, PDF p. 12","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B+","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original Table 1 and discussion checked. Apia station drought and ENSO association; qualified multi-event food-crop/fire statement."},{"evidence_id":"E0533","profile_id":"samoa","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"ESCAP’s Samoa row lists drought-associated forest fires during the 1997–98 dry season, among several historical drought seasons.","source_title":"El Niño 2015/2016: Impact Outlook and Policy Implications","publisher":"United Nations ESCAP and RIMES","publication_date":"2015-12-02","exact_url":"https://repository.unescap.org/bitstreams/3cc6b346-17de-4d55-aa5f-6b02bc8cd24b/download","page_or_section":"PDF and printed p. 12, Table 1: Samoa row, Agriculture","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B+","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Historical Samoa fire occurrence; not a quantified loss or present fire observation."},{"evidence_id":"E0534","profile_id":"samoa","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"Apia recorded 31% and 37% rainfall deficits in the two station drought periods identified by the review.","source_title":"Historical and future drought impacts in the Pacific islands and atolls","publisher":"Climatic Change (Springer Nature)","publication_date":"2021-05-18","exact_url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03112-1","page_or_section":"Table 1, 2015–2016 El Niño block, two Apia rows, PDF p. 8","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Both original Apia rows checked. Station-specific rainfall periods/totals/deficits and grouping under the 2015–16 El Niño."},{"evidence_id":"E0535","profile_id":"samoa","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"ESCAP’s 2015 policy discussion says Samoa had declared a meteorological drought and asked people to conserve water.","source_title":"El Niño 2015/2016: Impact Outlook and Policy Implications","publisher":"United Nations ESCAP and RIMES","publication_date":"2015-12-02","exact_url":"https://repository.unescap.org/bitstreams/3cc6b346-17de-4d55-aa5f-6b02bc8cd24b/download","page_or_section":"PDF and printed p. 15, Policy Recommendations, final paragraph beginning Already, countries of Asia-Pacific are acting","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Contemporaneous 2015 declaration/advice, not a current warning."},{"evidence_id":"E0536","profile_id":"solomon-islands","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The NAPA records Honiara water and school disruption during the 1997–98 drought, but its “by” versus “to” 30–40% wording is internally inconsistent.","source_title":"Solomon Islands National Adaptation Programme of Action","publisher":"Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Meteorology, Government of Solomon Islands","publication_date":"2008-11","exact_url":"https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/slb01.pdf","page_or_section":"§2.3.9 Education, PDF/printed pp. 53–54; Water Resources PDF p. 36; project discussion PDF p. 74","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original 136-page government NAPA recovered at regional official repository; relevant sections checked. Honiara catchment/supply disruption, school impacts and explicit 1997–98 ENSO framing; conflicting percentage wording preserved."},{"evidence_id":"E0537","profile_id":"solomon-islands","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The FAO alert reports widespread drought and provincial crop stress, with food and water shortages on Bellona.","source_title":"SOLOMON ISLANDS (28 November)","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Global Information and Early Warning System","publication_date":"1997-11-28","exact_url":"https://www.fao.org/4/w7447e/pays/soi9712e.htm","page_or_section":"Entire country alert: rainfall/crops paragraph and Bellona food-water assessment","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to narrower supported statement","source_scope_note":"The source does not mention Honiara water-supply cuts or schools; it supports wider drought and Bellona food/water context only. Broader drought context only; headline’s Honiara impacts unsupported."},{"evidence_id":"E0538","profile_id":"solomon-islands","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"FAO’s 28 November 1997 alert reports low rainfall since June, crop stress in several Solomon Islands provinces and food/water shortages on Bellona.","source_title":"SOLOMON ISLANDS (28 November)","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Global Information and Early Warning System","publication_date":"1997-11-28","exact_url":"https://www.fao.org/4/w7447e/pays/soi9712e.htm","page_or_section":"Entire country alert: rainfall/crops paragraph and Bellona food-water assessment","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The alert documents widespread drought and Bellona food/water stress. It does not mention Honiara schools, Honiara municipal supply, or explicit ENSO attribution. Contemporaneous reported drought/crop and Bellona impacts; no Honiara-school or explicit ENSO-causation support."},{"evidence_id":"E0539","profile_id":"solomon-islands","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"Solomon Islands’ second communication attributes severe 1997–98 drought in many parts of the country to El Niño and records food-garden damage and food distribution.","source_title":"Solomon Islands Second National Communication","publisher":"Ministry of Environment, Climate Change, Disaster Management and Meteorology, Government of Solomon Islands","publication_date":"2017-09","exact_url":"https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/SI%20SNC%20FINAL_1-1.pdf","page_or_section":"§3.2.5 Extreme Events, Drought, PDF/printed p. 75","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Indexed / access limited","source_scope_note":"Original official report recovered through SPREP and drought paragraph checked. National 1997–98 ENSO drought attribution and food response; not Bellona-specific shortages."},{"evidence_id":"E0540","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The review records distinct Ha’apai and Nuku’alofa drought periods during 1997–98, with Ha’apai’s onset delayed until after TC Ron.","source_title":"Historical and future drought impacts in the Pacific islands and atolls","publisher":"Climatic Change (Springer Nature)","publication_date":"2021-05-18","exact_url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03112-1","page_or_section":"Table 1, 1997–1998 El Niño block, Ha’apai and two Nuku’alofa rows, PDF p. 7","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original Tonga station rows checked. Station drought chronology, rainfall and cyclone-rainfall context within the ENSO episode."},{"evidence_id":"E0541","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"ESCAP’s Tonga row reports 1998 crop stunting and livestock impacts, 1997–98 impacts on shallow groundwater, and coral bleaching associated with warm sea-surface temperatures in 1997–98.","source_title":"El Niño 2015/2016: Impact Outlook and Policy Implications","publisher":"United Nations ESCAP and RIMES","publication_date":"2015-12-02","exact_url":"https://repository.unescap.org/bitstreams/3cc6b346-17de-4d55-aa5f-6b02bc8cd24b/download","page_or_section":"PDF and printed p. 12, Table 1: Tonga row, Historical impacts column","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Retrospective Tonga impacts; crop cell covers 1983/1998/2006, groundwater and reef statements separately identify 1997–98."},{"evidence_id":"E0542","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"ESCAP reported that Tonga had declared drought after eight months of dry conditions, with Eua most affected, and that emergency water supplies were being distributed to outer islands and desalination services made available.","source_title":"El Niño 2015/2016: Impact Outlook and Policy Implications","publisher":"United Nations ESCAP and RIMES","publication_date":"2015-12-02","exact_url":"https://repository.unescap.org/bitstreams/3cc6b346-17de-4d55-aa5f-6b02bc8cd24b/download","page_or_section":"PDF and printed p. 12, Table 1: Tonga row, Observed impacts in 2015 column; PDF and printed p. 15, Policy Recommendations, final paragraph beginning Already, countries of Asia-Pacific are acting","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. 2015 report-date conditions and response; Eua population figure is the source’s historical estimate."},{"evidence_id":"E0543","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The review records 21% and 33% rainfall deficits for the specified Ha’apai and Nuku’alofa station periods; its inconsistent Nuku’alofa duration is not repeated.","source_title":"Historical and future drought impacts in the Pacific islands and atolls","publisher":"Climatic Change (Springer Nature)","publication_date":"2021-05-18","exact_url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03112-1","page_or_section":"Table 1, 2015–2016 El Niño block, Ha’apai December 2015–March 2016 and Nuku’alofa October 2015–April 2016 rows, PDF p. 8","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original rows checked; internal duration discrepancy retained as a caveat. Ha’apai/Nuku’alofa station evidence, not Eua population or emergency delivery facts."},{"evidence_id":"E0544","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The assessment values same-design housing repairs at AU$12,000 and improved cyclone-resistant rebuilding at AU$84,000; these are alternative valuation methods, not additive losses.","source_title":"Economic Impact of Natural Disasters on Development in the Pacific, Volume 2: Economic Assessment Tools","publisher":"Australian Agency for International Development; University of the South Pacific and SOPAC","publication_date":"2005-05","exact_url":"https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/impact_pacific_tools.pdf","page_or_section":"Tool One, Box 5, PDF p. 22 / printed p. 20, paragraph beginning “The assessment of damage caused by Cyclone Keli” (web lines 608–614)","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B+","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Primary PDF text recovered through web; direct download produced an error response and is not used as PDF checksum. Keli-specific Niulakita housing repair versus improved-reconstruction estimates, no ENSO attribution."},{"evidence_id":"E0545","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"UNDP collectively describes infrastructure, communications, crop, taro-garden and water-storage damage from Tuvalu cyclone episodes in 1997, 2015 and 2020.","source_title":"Rising to the challenge","publisher":"United Nations Development Programme Pacific Office","publication_date":"2020-10-13","exact_url":"https://www.undp.org/pacific/press-releases/rising-challenge","page_or_section":"Historical cyclone-impact paragraph beginning Tropical Cyclone Gavin, Hina and Keli","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B+","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The paragraph groups the 1997 cyclones together with Pam in 2015 and Tino in 2020. Damage categories are collective; neither event-by-event allocation nor an ENSO attribution is given. Grouped retrospective cyclone-impact categories, not damage uniquely quantified or attributed to one 1997 storm."},{"evidence_id":"E0546","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"A user-supplied copy attributed to the Tuvalu Meteorological Services media release of 27 May 2015 (Facebook post dated 4 June 2015) recalls Keli on 7–10 June 1997. Its following statement describes crop, erosion and housing damage from the cyclones collectively, not separately quantified Keli losses. This is historical source framing, not independent ENSO causal attribution.","source_title":"27 May 2015 Media Release — El Niño Has Arrived","publisher":"Tuvalu Meteorological Service","publication_date":"2015-05-27","exact_url":"https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid0t82t7foy1711CcViSDpiLG6fTeeu5VxVkdzPEHsXLsW6UdBdHRFQ8RCR9Y3YXRhzl&id=100063475390732","page_or_section":"User-supplied copy: historical paragraph on Keli; following sentence describes losses from the cyclones collectively","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"B+","verification_status":"User-supplied transcription; original not independently authenticated","source_scope_note":"User-supplied transcription attributed to Tuvalu Meteorological Services. The copied post is dated 4 June 2015 and contains a media release dated 27 May 2015. The Facebook original could not be independently retrieved. The quoted text is checked against the supplied copy only; it is not independently authenticated publisher text. The release recalls 1997 cyclones collectively; it does not assign all losses specifically to Keli or establish independent ENSO causation.","post_date":"2015-06-04","evidence_kind":"historical_reported_impacts","analytical_confidence":"Attribution to supplied copy only; original authenticity not independently checked","previous_source_url":"https://www.facebook.com/100063475390732/posts/27-may-2015-media-releaseel-ni%C3%B1o-has-arrivedthe-tuvalu-meteorological-service-wi/1581837985429997/"},{"evidence_id":"E0547","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The 16 October 2015 Pacific regional statement says El Niño usually affects tropical-cyclone numbers and preferred tracks, while impacts vary between events and across the region.","source_title":"Regional Statement on the El Niño and Potential Impacts for the Pacific Islands","publisher":"Pacific Meteorological Council and regional meteorological partners","publication_date":"2015-10-16","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/sites/default/files/inline-files/documents/Regional%20statement%20FINAL-%2016Oct2015.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 1, opening El Niño statement, Some Potential Impacts and Typhoon/Tropical Cyclone Outlook","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B+","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. General seasonal risk relationship in a dated regional statement; no attribution of an individual cyclone."},{"evidence_id":"E0548","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"ABC reported roughly 40 damaged homes in Tuvalu, three-to-four-metre waves and island disaster-committee responses as Ula passed, alongside meteorologists’ explanation of an El Niño-influenced cyclone season.","source_title":"Tuvalu battered by heavy rains, strong winds as Pacific island nations brace for Cyclone Ula","publisher":"ABC News / Pacific Beat","publication_date":"2016-01-01","exact_url":"https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-01/pacific-island-nations-battered-by-heavy-rains-and-strong-winds/7061982","page_or_section":"Opening Tuvalu damage report; UNICEF wave/committee paragraph; El Niño weather pattern section and Ula passage","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B+","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The ABC report supplies the reported home damage, waves, committee response and Ula passage; its meteorologist comments give seasonal ENSO context rather than a counterfactual attribution of each loss. Dated secondary report of local impacts/response and attributed meteorological explanation; not national loss totals or direct attribution of each loss."},{"evidence_id":"E0549","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"In October 2015 the regional statement reported a strong El Niño and expected above-normal southwest-Pacific cyclone activity for 2015–16, with elevated numbers near or east of the International Date Line.","source_title":"Regional Statement on the El Niño and Potential Impacts for the Pacific Islands","publisher":"Pacific Meteorological Council and regional meteorological partners","publication_date":"2015-10-16","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/sites/default/files/inline-files/documents/Regional%20statement%20FINAL-%2016Oct2015.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 1, opening El Niño statement, Some Potential Impacts and Typhoon/Tropical Cyclone Outlook","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B+","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Contemporaneous seasonal outlook; not evidence that any particular cyclone or loss was caused by El Niño."},{"evidence_id":"E0550","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The review reports depleted water tanks and household water-access and food-security difficulties during Vanuatu’s drought following TC Pam.","source_title":"Historical and future drought impacts in the Pacific islands and atolls","publisher":"Climatic Change (Springer Nature)","publication_date":"2021-05-18","exact_url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03112-1","page_or_section":"Section 3.3.1, Vanuatu, PDF p. 10; Table 1 Vanuatu rows, PDF pp. 8–9","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B+","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Original Vanuatu discussion and station table recovered. Reported 2015–16 drought impacts following TC Pam and ENSO association; combined cyclone/drought context."},{"evidence_id":"E0551","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"ESCAP’s 2015 Vanuatu summary records the earlier Cyclone Pam disaster and says communities subsequently faced food and water shortages connected with an El Niño-induced drought, with emergency food distribution targeting about 90,000 people.","source_title":"El Niño 2015/2016: Impact Outlook and Policy Implications","publisher":"United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific and Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System","publication_date":"2015-12-02","exact_url":"https://repository.unescap.org/bitstreams/3cc6b346-17de-4d55-aa5f-6b02bc8cd24b/download","page_or_section":"PDF and printed p. 12, Table 1: Vanuatu row, Observed impacts in 2015 column","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B+","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Historical compound crisis; does not attribute Cyclone Pam itself or all losses to El Niño."},{"evidence_id":"E0552","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The study reports that Cyclone Pam and the 2015–2017 El Niño drought affected food production and longer-term food/nutrition security in two Vanuatu villages.","source_title":"Climate extremes constrain agency and long-term health: A qualitative case study in a Pacific Small Island Developing State","publisher":"Weather and Climate Extremes / Elsevier; record hosted by Australian National University","publication_date":"2021-03","exact_url":"https://researchportalplus.anu.edu.au/en/publications/climate-extremes-constrain-agency-and-long-term-health-a-qualitat/","page_or_section":"Abstract: Pam/drought case study, two villages and food/nutrition-security findings","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"B+","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to narrower supported statement","source_scope_note":"The abstract documents two villages and food/nutrition-security effects from Pam and the 2015–2017 El Niño drought. It does not substantiate a nationwide water crisis or quantify its worsening after Pam. Qualitative two-village food/nutrition findings; no national water-crisis generalization."},{"evidence_id":"E0553","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The French Government’s May 1998 response describes Ron damage assessments by village on Wallis, subsistence-crop loss valuation, initial emergency aid and a 7.5-million-franc allocation still undergoing release procedures.","source_title":"Question ecrite no. 12800: TOM - Wallis-et-Futuna","publisher":"Assemblee nationale, Republique francaise","publication_date":"1998-05-04","exact_url":"https://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/dyn/11/questions/QANR5L11QE12800","page_or_section":"Written question and Government response published 4 May 1998","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The response reports immediate emergency assistance, village-level housing assessments and valuation of subsistence crops. It says the 7.5-million-franc budget procedure was underway and funds expected shortly; that is not proof the full envelope had already been paid. Official historical damage-assessment and aid-process account; no completed full-payment or ENSO attribution inference."},{"evidence_id":"E0554","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The 1999 review reports that Ron hit Wallis in early 1998, damaging plantations, homes and electricity installations, with total damage estimated near 20 million French francs.","source_title":"Zone Pacifique - L'Annee francophone internationale 1999","publisher":"L'Annee francophone internationale; archived by IRD Horizon","publication_date":"1999","exact_url":"https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/pleins_textes_7/b_fdi_53-54/010016528.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 11 / printed p. 259, Wallis-et-Futuna, opening paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to narrower supported statement","source_scope_note":"The source verifies Wallis damage but not village-by-village inventories or a specifically valued subsistence-agriculture loss; those belong to the separately cited Assembly record. Island-level impact and total loss estimate, separate from National Assembly village inventories and the 7.5-million-franc assistance allocation."},{"evidence_id":"E0555","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"historical_story","claim_text":"The issue records the persistence of the strong 1997–1998 El Niño and a shifted Pacific cyclone pattern.","source_title":"Pacific ENSO Update - 1st Quarter 1998 - Vol. 4 No. 1","publisher":"Pacific ENSO Applications Center, University of Hawai'i","publication_date":"1998-Q1","exact_url":"https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/MET/Enso/peu/update.dir/Update-1stQtr98.html","page_or_section":"Current Conditions; Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones 1982–83 and 1997–98; Pohnpei State paragraph","last_checked":"31 August 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Source checked; corrected to narrower supported statement","source_scope_note":"The opening ENSO statement does not establish Wallis village-level home or subsistence-crop damage from Ron. ENSO context only; Ron impacts require another source."},{"evidence_id":"E0556","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"For September–November 2026, rainfall is most likely below normal in the north and east of the North Island (50%); very likely above normal in the west of the South Island (60%); and about equally likely near or below normal in several other northern and eastern regions.","source_title":"Seasonal Climate Outlook September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-09-02","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-september-november-2026","page_or_section":"Outlook Summary rainfall bullet; primary HTML regional predictions Northland group, Gisborne group and West Coast group","last_checked":"3 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0557","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"El Niño impacts on New Zealand weather had recently started; below-normal winter rainfall reduced groundwater recharge in several regions; through 30 August the monthly SOI was -1.2 and the 30-day RONI was +1.9°C; marine heatwave conditions continued around much of the South Island and Tasman Sea.","source_title":"Seasonal Climate Outlook September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-09-02","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-september-november-2026","page_or_section":"Outlook Summary initial impacts / winter recharge bullet; Background SOI, RONI and local SST paragraphs","last_checked":"3 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0558","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"The outlook provides region-specific probabilities and states that other climate drivers and intraseasonal oscillations will still contribute to New Zealand weather patterns.","source_title":"Seasonal Climate Outlook September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-09-02","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-september-november-2026","page_or_section":"Outlook Summary other-drivers bullet and Regional predictions explanatory paragraph","last_checked":"3 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0559","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","claim_text":"The official outlook identifies reduced rainfall, more frequent dry spells and enhanced drying of soils and vegetation as challenges for water-reliant sectors in several regions, while heavy rain and unusually strong winds are more likely in the south and west.","source_title":"Seasonal Climate Outlook September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-09-02","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-september-november-2026","page_or_section":"Outlook Summary winter recharge/dry-spell, southern/western heavy-rain and spring-wind bullets","last_checked":"3 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0560","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"Analytical recommendation grounded in the official September–November rainfall, soil-moisture, river-flow, wind and heavy-rain outlook; it is not an official activation instruction.","source_title":"Seasonal Climate Outlook September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-09-02","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-september-november-2026","page_or_section":"Outlook Summary rainfall, soil moisture / river flow, and wind bullets","last_checked":"3 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"Source forecasts inform the portal action recommendation. No formal activation instruction, institutional action assignment or financing commitment is stated here. portal_action_recommendation_grounded_in_dated_forecast"},{"evidence_id":"E0561","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"triggers_to_monitor","claim_text":"Monitor the official region-specific rainfall, soil-moisture and river-flow probabilities together with shorter-term warnings; the source provides outlook probabilities, not automatic action thresholds.","source_title":"Seasonal Climate Outlook September–November 2026","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"2026-09-02","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-september-november-2026","page_or_section":"Outlook Summary rainfall and hydrological bullets; Regional predictions explanatory paragraph","last_checked":"3 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The source provides forecast probabilities, not automatic action thresholds. Using these plus shorter-term warnings as a trigger-monitoring package is portal guidance. portal_monitoring_recommendation; no_automatic_threshold_verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0562","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_sugar_sector","claim_text":"For Fiji's sugarcane belt, the September 2026 outlook gives a 75% chance of at least 0–25 mm from Olosara to Penang and 25–50 mm in Dobuilevu and sugarcane areas of Vanua Levu; similarly dry thresholds are given for October, November and October–December, with confidence explicitly rated low.","source_title":"Fiji Sugarcane Rainfall Outlook for September, October, November and October to December 2026","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological Service and Sugar Research Institute of Fiji","publication_date":"2026-09-01","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/FSCRO_September_2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Climate Outlook, PDF pages 4–6; map captions on PDF pages 5–6","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0563","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"priority_actions","claim_text":"The official sugar-sector advisory recommends no new planting in the driest Olosara–Tavua sectors until rain is received; trash blanketing or mulching to conserve moisture; firebreaks and no open burning near standing cane; careful fertilizer timing; and weekly checks for scale insects, mealybugs and termites.","source_title":"Fiji Sugarcane Rainfall Outlook for September, October, November and October to December 2026","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological Service and Sugar Research Institute of Fiji","publication_date":"2026-09-01","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/FSCRO_September_2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Key Messages and General Advisory, PDF pages 1–2","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0564","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"For the week valid 1 September 2026, USDM reported D1-S at the three named American Samoa monitoring locations: Pago Pago received 0.29 inches, Siufaga Ridge 0.76 inches and Toa Ridge 0.57 inches, without meaningful drought relief.","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 1 September 2026","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260901.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section: American Samoa paragraph; release 3 September, valid 1 September 2026","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The exact archived paragraph supports the stated weekly classification, rainfall quantities and qualifications. direct_historical_weekly_monitoring"},{"evidence_id":"E0565","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"For the week valid 1 September 2026, Kapingamarangi retained D0-S after no rain; USDM described most of FSM as drought-free. Pohnpei recorded 6.28 inches, including 4.16 inches on 30 August.","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 1 September 2026","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260901.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section: Federated States of Micronesia paragraph; release 3 September, valid 1 September 2026","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The archived paragraph supports Kapingamarangi, the Pohnpei quantities and most-FSM drought-free monitoring. Prefer the source’s most-FSM scope to the broader rest-of-FSM wording. direct_historical_weekly_monitoring"},{"evidence_id":"E0566","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"Guam remained drought-free for the week valid 1 September after receiving 4.64 inches of rain.","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 1 September 2026","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260901.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section: Mariana Islands paragraph, Guam; release 3 September, valid 1 September 2026","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0567","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"For the week valid 1 September 2026, the Northern Mariana reporting stations remained drought-free: Rota received 2.32 inches, Saipan 0.82 inches with two days missing, and Tinian 1.44 inches with five days missing.","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 1 September 2026","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260901.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section: Mariana Islands paragraph, Rota/Saipan/Tinian and missing days; release 3 September, valid 1 September 2026","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","source_scope_note":"The exact archived paragraph supports the stated weekly classification, rainfall quantities and qualifications. direct_historical_weekly_monitoring"},{"evidence_id":"E0568","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"Palau remained D0-S abnormally dry for the week valid 1 September after Koror recorded 0.00 inches and Airai 0.10 inches; the Monitor warned that moderate drought could develop if the dry spell continued.","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 1 September 2026","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260901.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section: Palau paragraph; release 3 September, valid 1 September 2026","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0569","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"All reporting stations in the Marshall Islands remained drought-free for the week valid 1 September; rainfall ranged from 0.40 inches at Jaluit to 3.31 inches at Ailinglapalap, and weakening monsoon activity was expected to give way to a drier pattern around Majuro.","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 1 September 2026","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260901.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section: Marshall Islands paragraph; release 3 September, valid 1 September 2026","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0570","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0571","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0572","profile_id":"cook-islands","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0573","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0574","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0575","profile_id":"french-polynesia","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0576","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0577","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0578","profile_id":"nauru","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0579","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0580","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0581","profile_id":"niue","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0582","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0583","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0584","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0585","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0586","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0587","profile_id":"samoa","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0588","profile_id":"solomon-islands","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0589","profile_id":"tokelau","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0590","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0591","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0592","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0593","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to very strong intensity, and has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO explicitly states that event strength alone does not determine impact severity in any country or region.","source_title":"El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027","page_or_section":"3 September 2026 press release: opening paragraph; consensus/strengthening paragraphs; individual-country-impact limitation","last_checked":"4 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0594","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"For September–November 2026, rainfall has a 60% to greater than 80% chance of being below average in far south-west Western Australia, south-eastern Australia including Tasmania, parts of eastern and northern Queensland and the northern Top End; rainfall has a 60% to greater than 80% chance of being above average across most of Western Australia into western Northern Territory and South Australia.","source_title":"Rainfall and temperature long-range forecasts — issued 3 September 2026","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","page_or_section":"Rainfall — Summary, September–November, bullets 1–2","last_checked":"5 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0595","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"The dry signal is strongest in September before the wet signal emerges from October; southern Victoria and Tasmania retain a drier-than-average forecast throughout spring. Much of northern and central Western Australia has a 50–80% chance of unusually high seasonal rainfall.","source_title":"Rainfall and temperature long-range forecasts — issued 3 September 2026","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","publication_date":"2026-09-03","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","page_or_section":"Rainfall — Summary, September–November, bullets 3–4 and unusually-high definition","last_checked":"5 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0596","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"For the week ending 30 August, the relative Niño3.4 index was +2.45°C; the 30-day SOI was −14.6; the IOD index was neutral at +0.22°C; and sea-surface temperatures were about 2–3°C above average along southern New South Wales and eastern and southern Tasmania.","source_title":"Southern Hemisphere Monitoring — issued 1 September 2026","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","publication_date":"2026-09-01","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/","page_or_section":"Overview bullet 1; relative Niño3.4; Overview SOI bullet; Overview IOD bullet; Overview Australian-coastal SST bullet","last_checked":"5 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"CARE-PNG-2015-PROTECTION","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"historical_protection","claim_text":"CARE’s October 2015 assessment in Obura Wonenara, Gumine and Menyamya districts recorded respondents reporting increased gender-based violence and household tension during drought-related water and food shortages. This is localized, self-reported assessment evidence about women’s protection; it does not measure national prevalence or isolate El Niño as a cause. CARE states that findings cannot be generalized to all communities in Papua New Guinea.","source_title":"Initial Rapid Gender Assessment Report: Papua New Guinea 2015 El Niño — Select Communities of Eastern Highlands, Morobe and Chimbu","publisher":"CARE International in Papua New Guinea","publication_date":"2015-10","exact_url":"https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/15_10_30_care_png_el_nino_gender_analysis_october_2015.pdf","page_or_section":"Protection, printed p. 11 (PDF p. 13); Methodology and Limitations, printed p. 5 (PDF p. 7)","last_checked":"2026-09-08","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified original report; relevant sections visually reviewed"},{"evidence_id":"IFRC-PNG-2015-PROTECTION-RISK","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"historical_risk_protection","claim_text":"IFRC’s 5 September 2015 PNG drought and frost bulletin warned that severe food insecurity could lead to greater gender-based violence, citing a WFP risk brief, and that longer journeys to water sources exposed women to greater risk of violence. This was a risk warning issued during the 2015 El Niño drought, not a measured increase in violence.","source_title":"Information bulletin: Papua New Guinea — Drought and Frost","publisher":"International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC)","publication_date":"2015-09-05","exact_url":"https://www.ifrc.org/docs?file=Appeals/15/IBPNG050915.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 2, severe-food-insecurity risk paragraph, water-access paragraph and footnote 4","last_checked":"2026-09-08","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified original bulletin; relevant section reviewed","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Historical protection-risk warning; no measured increase in violence and no exclusive El Niño causal attribution."},{"evidence_id":"CARE-PNG-2015-PROTECTION-RECOMMENDATIONS","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"historical_protection_recommendation","claim_text":"In its 2015 PNG assessment, CARE recommended community messaging on family and sexual violence, community support groups and awareness of referral routes. It also recommended GBV-risk training for emergency response staff. These are historical response recommendations, not evidence of a current approved or funded programme, implementation, or an established anticipatory-action protocol.","source_title":"Initial Rapid Gender Assessment Report: Papua New Guinea 2015 El Niño — Select Communities of Eastern Highlands, Morobe and Chimbu","publisher":"CARE International in Papua New Guinea","publication_date":"2015-10","exact_url":"https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/15_10_30_care_png_el_nino_gender_analysis_october_2015.pdf","page_or_section":"Initial Gender Assessment Recommendations — Protection, printed pp. 13–14 (PDF pp. 15–16)","last_checked":"2026-09-08","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Verified original report; relevant sections visually reviewed"},{"evidence_id":"E0597","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0598","profile_id":"australia","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0599","profile_id":"cook-islands","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0600","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0601","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0602","profile_id":"french-polynesia","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0603","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0604","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0605","profile_id":"nauru","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0606","profile_id":"new-caledonia","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0607","profile_id":"new-zealand","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0608","profile_id":"niue","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0609","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0610","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0611","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0612","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0613","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0614","profile_id":"samoa","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0615","profile_id":"solomon-islands","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0616","profile_id":"tokelau","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0617","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0618","profile_id":"tuvalu","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0619","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0620","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA reported on 10 September that El Niño strengthened further during August: eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C; August relative indices reached Niño-3.4 +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C. NOAA assessed a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance that October–December RONI would reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding previous events since 1950. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at this strength but are not guaranteed.","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / National Weather Service","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","page_or_section":"Synopsis and main discussion; Figures 1–8","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0621","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"American Samoa remained in D1-S short-term moderate drought for the week valid 8 September. Pago Pago received 0.23 inches, Siufaga Ridge 0.40 inches and Toa Ridge 0.65 inches; rainfall remained insufficient for meaningful drought relief.","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 8 September 2026","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260908.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section, american samoa paragraphs","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0622","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"Kapingamarangi remained D0-S abnormally dry for the week valid 8 September after at least two dry weeks, although 1.97 inches of recent rain brought some improvement. The rest of FSM remained drought-free; Yap and Chuuk received substantially less rain than most reporting stations.","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 8 September 2026","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260908.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section, Federated States of Micronesia paragraphs","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0623","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"Guam remained drought-free for the week valid 8 September after receiving 4.09 inches, including 3.07 inches on 6 September.","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 8 September 2026","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260908.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section, guam paragraphs","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0624","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"The Northern Mariana Islands remained drought-free for the week valid 8 September; Rota received 2.67 inches, Saipan 1.24 inches and Tinian 0.38 inches, with five days missing at Tinian.","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 8 September 2026","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260908.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section, Mariana Islands paragraphs","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0625","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"Palau deteriorated from D0-S abnormal dryness to D1-S short-term moderate drought for the week valid 8 September. Koror and Airai each recorded 0.00 inches during a second consecutive dry week, and Koror was dry during six of the previous seven weeks.","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 8 September 2026","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260908.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section, palau paragraphs","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0626","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"All reporting stations in the Marshall Islands remained drought-free for the week valid 8 September. Jaluit received 0.20 inches and Utirik 0.78 inches, and continuing dryness at both locations should be monitored; Kwajalein received 3.51 inches.","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 8 September 2026","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260908.html","page_or_section":"Pacific section, Marshall Islands paragraphs","last_checked":"10 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0627","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"Through August 2026, Fiji Met reported very dry conditions on the three-month timescale across Vanua Levu, Vanuabalavu, northern Lau and parts of Makogai and Koro, with serious dryness in Taveuni and Cikobia. Cikobia and Rotuma were seriously dry on the six-month timescale, and Rotuma was seriously dry on the 12-month timescale.","source_title":"Fiji Early Action Rainfall Watch — September 2026","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_EAR_Watch_September_2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 1, Rainfall Status until August 2026","last_checked":"12 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0628","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_short_term","claim_text":"For 15–28 September 2026, Fiji Met assessed a very high chance of very dry conditions across the Western, Central and Northern Divisions, most of the Eastern Division and Rotuma, with a high chance across the rest of Fiji. For September as a whole, it assessed a very high chance of very dry conditions nationwide.","source_title":"Fiji Early Action Rainfall Watch — September 2026","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_EAR_Watch_September_2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 1, Rainfall Outlook; maps on pages 2–3","last_checked":"12 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0629","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"For September–November 2026, Fiji Met assessed a very high chance of very dry conditions across the Fiji Group. The bulletin defines very dry as rainfall in the lowest 20% of historical observations and notes that confidence is greatest for its alert 3 category.","source_title":"Fiji Early Action Rainfall Watch — September 2026","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_EAR_Watch_September_2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 1, Rainfall Outlook; page 4, Forecast for Extreme Rainfall maps","last_checked":"12 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0630","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"impact_context","claim_text":"The bulletin identifies rainwater tanks, small streams, hand-dug wells, shallow bores, pasture and several crops as systems that can be affected at a three-month rainfall timescale. These are potential affected systems, not confirmed current impacts.","source_title":"Fiji Early Action Rainfall Watch — September 2026","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_EAR_Watch_September_2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 1, Time periods and Impacts on the ground","last_checked":"12 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified"},{"evidence_id":"E0631","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"subnational_observation","claim_text":"Vatulele: Very Wet rainfall classification for the 3-month period through August 2026. This is a gridded rainfall category, not a measurement of water-supply shortage or crop loss.","source_title":"Fiji Early Action Rainfall Watch — September 2026","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_EAR_Watch_September_2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 1, local rainfall status; page 2, maps; page 4, method","last_checked":"12 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified source; portal transcription of local rainfall classification"},{"evidence_id":"E0632","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"subnational_observation","claim_text":"Gau: Very Dry rainfall classification for the 3-month period through August 2026. This is a gridded rainfall category, not a measurement of water-supply shortage or crop loss.","source_title":"Fiji Early Action Rainfall Watch — September 2026","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_EAR_Watch_September_2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 1, local rainfall status; page 2, maps; page 4, method","last_checked":"12 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified source; portal transcription of local rainfall classification"},{"evidence_id":"E0633","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"subnational_observation","claim_text":"Ono-i-Lau: Very Dry rainfall classification for the 3-month period through August 2026. This is a gridded rainfall category, not a measurement of water-supply shortage or crop loss.","source_title":"Fiji Early Action Rainfall Watch — September 2026","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_EAR_Watch_September_2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 1, local rainfall status; page 2, maps; page 4, method","last_checked":"12 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified source; portal transcription of local rainfall classification"},{"evidence_id":"E0634","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"subnational_observation","claim_text":"Taveuni: Seriously Dry rainfall classification for the 3-month period through August 2026. This is a gridded rainfall category, not a measurement of water-supply shortage or crop loss.","source_title":"Fiji Early Action Rainfall Watch — September 2026","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_EAR_Watch_September_2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 1, local rainfall status; page 2, maps; page 4, method","last_checked":"12 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified source; portal transcription of local rainfall classification"},{"evidence_id":"E0635","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"subnational_observation","claim_text":"Cikobia: Seriously Dry rainfall classification for the 3-month period through August 2026. This is a gridded rainfall category, not a measurement of water-supply shortage or crop loss.","source_title":"Fiji Early Action Rainfall Watch — September 2026","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_EAR_Watch_September_2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 1, local rainfall status; page 2, maps; page 4, method","last_checked":"12 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified source; portal transcription of local rainfall classification"},{"evidence_id":"E0636","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"subnational_observation","claim_text":"Cikobia: Seriously Dry rainfall classification for the 6-month period through August 2026. This is a gridded rainfall category, not a measurement of water-supply shortage or crop loss.","source_title":"Fiji Early Action Rainfall Watch — September 2026","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_EAR_Watch_September_2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 1, local rainfall status; page 2, maps; page 4, method","last_checked":"12 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified source; portal transcription of local rainfall classification"},{"evidence_id":"E0637","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"subnational_observation","claim_text":"Rotuma: Seriously Dry rainfall classification for the 6-month period through August 2026. This is a gridded rainfall category, not a measurement of water-supply shortage or crop loss.","source_title":"Fiji Early Action Rainfall Watch — September 2026","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_EAR_Watch_September_2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 1, local rainfall status; page 2, maps; page 4, method","last_checked":"12 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified source; portal transcription of local rainfall classification"},{"evidence_id":"E0638","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"subnational_observation","claim_text":"Taveuni: Very Dry rainfall classification for the 6-month period through August 2026. This is a gridded rainfall category, not a measurement of water-supply shortage or crop loss.","source_title":"Fiji Early Action Rainfall Watch — September 2026","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_EAR_Watch_September_2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 1, local rainfall status; page 2, maps; page 4, method","last_checked":"12 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified source; portal transcription of local rainfall classification"},{"evidence_id":"E0639","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"subnational_observation","claim_text":"Batiki: Very Wet rainfall classification for the 12-month period through August 2026. This is a gridded rainfall category, not a measurement of water-supply shortage or crop loss.","source_title":"Fiji Early Action Rainfall Watch — September 2026","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_EAR_Watch_September_2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 1, local rainfall status; page 2, maps; page 4, method","last_checked":"12 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified source; portal transcription of local rainfall classification"},{"evidence_id":"E0640","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"subnational_observation","claim_text":"Rotuma: Seriously Dry rainfall classification for the 12-month period through August 2026. This is a gridded rainfall category, not a measurement of water-supply shortage or crop loss.","source_title":"Fiji Early Action Rainfall Watch — September 2026","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_EAR_Watch_September_2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Page 1, local rainfall status; page 2, maps; page 4, method","last_checked":"12 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified source; portal transcription of local rainfall classification"},{"evidence_id":"E0641","profile_id":"","used_for_field":"sst_observation_layer","claim_text":"NOAA Coral Reef Watch SST anomaly frame observes 10 September 2026 relative to the 1991–2020 baseline. Native 0.05° water pixels are averaged into 0.25° display cells; the map does not represent air temperature or impact severity.","source_title":"NOAA CRW daily sea-surface temperature anomaly — 10 September 2026","publisher":"NOAA Coral Reef Watch","publication_date":"2026-09-11","exact_url":"https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/socd/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1-clim19912020-v1/nc/v1.0/daily/ssta/2026/ct5km_ssta_v3.1-clim19912020-v1_20260910.nc","page_or_section":"NetCDF variable sea_surface_temperature_anomaly; observation 2026-09-10T00:00Z to 2026-09-11T00:00Z; issued 2026-09-11T14:42:10Z","last_checked":"12 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Official gridded observation; display aggregation documented"},{"evidence_id":"INC-UNW-2026-REGIONAL","profile_id":"","country_ids":[],"inclusion_group_ids":["women-girls","low-income-livelihoods"],"scope_label":"Asia and the Pacific — regional context","evidence_kind":"regional_risk_context","used_for_field":"regional_risk_context","claim_text":"UN Women’s June 2026 Gender Alert warns that El Niño and compounding crises could deepen poverty and gender-based violence. It calls for gender-responsive anticipatory action. This is regional prospective analysis, not a measured 2026 impact in each selected Pacific country.","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women","publication_date":"June 2026","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/sites/default/files/2026-06/ap-20260487421-genderalert-the-2026-el-nino-and-compounding-crises-in-ap_june2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Regional risk analysis; primary-source indexed text; exact PDF page not verified","last_checked":"12 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Primary source text checked; regional scope retained","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"INC-UNW-2026-DISABILITY","profile_id":"","country_ids":[],"inclusion_group_ids":["persons-with-disabilities","women-girls"],"scope_label":"Asia and the Pacific — regional guidance","evidence_kind":"regional_guidance","used_for_field":"regional_guidance","claim_text":"The June 2026 Gender Alert identifies women with disabilities and pregnant and lactating women in its anticipatory-action recommendations, and recommends sex-, age- and disability-disaggregated data. This is guidance on inclusion; it does not provide country-level counts of disability-related impacts.","source_title":"Gender Alert: The 2026 El Niño and Compounding Crises in Asia and the Pacific","publisher":"UN Women","publication_date":"June 2026","exact_url":"https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/sites/default/files/2026-06/ap-20260487421-genderalert-the-2026-el-nino-and-compounding-crises-in-ap_june2026.pdf","page_or_section":"Anticipatory-action recommendations; primary-source indexed text; exact PDF page not verified","last_checked":"12 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Primary source text checked; regional scope retained","coverage_scope":"regional"},{"evidence_id":"INC-UNICEF-2024-CHILD-NEEDS","profile_id":"","country_ids":["federated-states-of-micronesia","marshall-islands"],"inclusion_group_ids":["children-adolescents"],"scope_label":"FSM and Marshall Islands — combined estimate","evidence_kind":"historical_reported_needs","used_for_field":"historical_reported_needs","claim_text":"UNICEF estimated that 17,131 children needed humanitarian assistance in the FSM/RMI drought response in April 2024. This combined estimate covers both countries; it must not be assigned to either country alone or treated as a 2026 count.","source_title":"FSM/RMI Humanitarian Situation Report No. 2 — drought","publisher":"UNICEF","publication_date":"April 2024","exact_url":"https://www.unicef.org/media/156221/file/Pacific-MCO%2C-Federated-States-of-Micronesia-%28FSM%29-%26-Republic-of-%20the-Marshall-Islands-%28RMI%29-Humanitarian-Situation-Report-No.2-%28Drought%29-April-2024.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 1, Situation in Numbers, children-in-need estimate; PDF p. 2, Situation Overview & Humanitarian Needs, opening paragraph","last_checked":"12 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary report; source-dated historical account","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. Combined FSM/RMI April 2024 needs estimate, not a 2026 count or country allocation."},{"evidence_id":"INC-UNICEF-2024-YAP-WATER","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","country_ids":["federated-states-of-micronesia"],"inclusion_group_ids":["remote-island-communities"],"scope_label":"Yap outer islands, FSM","evidence_kind":"historical_observed_conditions","used_for_field":"historical_observed_conditions","claim_text":"UNICEF reported significant water shortages throughout Yap’s outer islands in April 2024 during the El Niño-associated drought. This historical account is specific to Yap; it does not establish present water shortages across all remote Pacific communities.","source_title":"FSM/RMI Humanitarian Situation Report No. 2 — drought","publisher":"UNICEF","publication_date":"April 2024","exact_url":"https://www.unicef.org/media/156221/file/Pacific-MCO%2C-Federated-States-of-Micronesia-%28FSM%29-%26-Republic-of-%20the-Marshall-Islands-%28RMI%29-Humanitarian-Situation-Report-No.2-%28Drought%29-April-2024.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 2, Situation Overview & Humanitarian Needs, opening paragraph; PDF p. 2, Yap State paragraph, left of drought-monitor map","last_checked":"12 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary report; source-dated historical account","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. April 2024 Yap outer-island conditions, not a general remote-Pacific or current condition."},{"evidence_id":"INC-UNICEF-2024-PROTECTION","profile_id":"","country_ids":["federated-states-of-micronesia","marshall-islands"],"inclusion_group_ids":["women-girls","children-adolescents"],"scope_label":"FSM and Marshall Islands","evidence_kind":"historical_risk_protection","used_for_field":"historical_risk_protection","claim_text":"UNICEF’s April 2024 report identified protection risks for women and children, including water-collection journeys and gaps in protection services during the drought. These were reported risk concerns, not measured GBV incidence or proof that El Niño alone caused violence.","source_title":"FSM/RMI Humanitarian Situation Report No. 2 — drought","publisher":"UNICEF","publication_date":"April 2024","exact_url":"https://www.unicef.org/media/156221/file/Pacific-MCO%2C-Federated-States-of-Micronesia-%28FSM%29-%26-Republic-of-%20the-Marshall-Islands-%28RMI%29-Humanitarian-Situation-Report-No.2-%28Drought%29-April-2024.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 4, Child Protection, first paragraph","last_checked":"12 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary report; source-dated historical account","source_scope_note":"Exact source passage verified visually; proposed wording makes this source’s support explicit. April 2024 reported protection concerns and service gaps, not measured GBV incidence or single-cause attribution."},{"evidence_id":"INC-UNICEF-2024-SCHOOLS","profile_id":"marshall-islands","country_ids":["marshall-islands"],"inclusion_group_ids":["children-adolescents"],"scope_label":"Marshall Islands","evidence_kind":"historical_reported_impacts","used_for_field":"historical_reported_impacts","claim_text":"UNICEF’s April 2024 response document reported three schools serving approximately 300 children forced to close without reverse-osmosis units. This is a dated report of education disruption; it is not a current school-closure count.","source_title":"Drought Emergency Response for the North Pacific — FSM and RMI","publisher":"UNICEF","publication_date":"April 2024","exact_url":"https://www.unicef.org/media/155256/file/Drought-Emergency-Response-for-the-North-Pacific%28FSM-and-RMI%29%2CApril%202024.pdf","page_or_section":"PDF p. 2, Current UNICEF Response, Marshall Islands paragraph","last_checked":"12 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary report; source-dated historical account","source_scope_note":"Exact statement verified; corrected section locator from Education to Current UNICEF Response. Historical April 2024 RMI school disruption; not current closures."},{"profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Australian long-range forecast — issued 10 September 2026, October–December outlook","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","last_checked":"13 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","analytical_confidence":"High for accurately reporting official statements; local impact magnitude remains uncertain","evidence_id":"E0642","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","evidence_kind":"forecast","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, BoM gives a 60% to greater than 80% chance of above-average rainfall across most of Western Australia, western South Australia, southern two-thirds of Northern Territory, inland Queensland and north-east New South Wales. Below-average rainfall has a 60–80% chance across much of the south-east and parts of the far north.","page_or_section":"Rainfall — Summary, October–December, bullets 1 and 3"},{"profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Australian long-range forecast — issued 10 September 2026, October–December outlook","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","last_checked":"13 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","analytical_confidence":"High for accurately reporting official statements; local impact magnitude remains uncertain","evidence_id":"E0643","used_for_field":"temperature_outlook","evidence_kind":"forecast","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, above-average maximum temperatures have a 60% to greater than 80% chance across most of Australia except some tropical northern areas. Above-average minimum temperatures have a 60% to greater than 80% chance across Australia.","page_or_section":"Temperature — Summary, October–December, maximum/minimum bullets"},{"profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Australian long-range forecast — issued 10 September 2026, October–December outlook","publication_date":"2026-09-10","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","last_checked":"13 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","analytical_confidence":"High for accurately reporting official statements; local impact magnitude remains uncertain","evidence_id":"E0644","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","evidence_kind":"observation","observation_end":"2026-09-06","claim_text":"BoM reports mostly above-average SSTs near Australian coasts for the week ending 6 September 2026, with near-average waters to the north and north-east. Particularly warm waters occurred near southern New South Wales and eastern and southern Tasmania. These are ocean observations, not measured land impacts.","page_or_section":"Current climate indicators, dated SST analysis"},{"profile_id":"tuvalu","publisher":"The Pacific Community (SPC)","source_title":"Four Funafuti communities built their own water backup, just as El Niño strengthens","publication_date":"2026-09-08","exact_url":"https://www.spc.int/updates/blog/dynamic-story/2026/09/four-funafuti-communities-built-their-own-water-backup-just-as","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary institutional account; commissioning pending","evidence_id":"E0645","used_for_field":"existing_measures","evidence_kind":"implemented_action","claim_text":"SPC reports that four communal rainwater cisterns serving the Nui, Nukufetau, Fakaifou and Vaiaku communities on Funafuti are complete and awaiting commissioning. Construction ran from June 2024 to June 2026, with the four sites completed at different times.","page_or_section":"Opening section and construction timeline","analytical_confidence":"High for the source-reported construction and commissioning status; operational performance and drought outcomes have not yet been evaluated","source_scope_note":"The full original story was recovered from SPC’s Shorthand publication embedded by its official article. Source-reported construction completion; commissioning and operational effectiveness remain unverified."},{"profile_id":"tuvalu","publisher":"The Pacific Community (SPC)","source_title":"Four Funafuti communities built their own water backup, just as El Niño strengthens","publication_date":"2026-09-08","exact_url":"https://www.spc.int/updates/blog/dynamic-story/2026/09/four-funafuti-communities-built-their-own-water-backup-just-as","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary institutional account; commissioning pending","evidence_id":"E0646","used_for_field":"existing_measures","evidence_kind":"documented_practice","claim_text":"SPC describes delivery by Tuvalu’s Department of Climate Change and Public Works Department with SPC and New Zealand MFAT support. Community members and Kaupule worked with Public Works crews and received practical instruction on construction, maintenance, repair and checks for cracks or wear, leaving local capacity for upkeep.","page_or_section":"A shared build — community participation and practical instruction","analytical_confidence":"High for accurately reporting the implementation approach; transferability and effectiveness beyond these sites have not been independently assessed","source_scope_note":"The full original story was recovered from SPC’s Shorthand publication embedded by its official article. Source-reported delivery and training approach; not an independent effectiveness evaluation."},{"profile_id":"tuvalu","publisher":"The Pacific Community (SPC)","source_title":"Four Funafuti communities built their own water backup, just as El Niño strengthens","publication_date":"2026-09-08","exact_url":"https://www.spc.int/updates/blog/dynamic-story/2026/09/four-funafuti-communities-built-their-own-water-backup-just-as","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary institutional account; commissioning pending","evidence_id":"E0647","used_for_field":"existing_measures","evidence_kind":"planned_action","claim_text":"SPC reports a next phase focused on drought-crisis response: infrastructure repairs, one additional community cistern on Nui, two reverse-osmosis units and 10,000-litre tanks for Tuvalu’s outer islands. These are reported plans, not completed outputs.","page_or_section":"Built to last — final paragraph on next-phase plans","analytical_confidence":"High for the plan as reported by SPC; financing, delivery dates, completion and future performance were not verified in this review","source_scope_note":"The full original story was recovered from SPC’s Shorthand publication embedded by its official article. Reported future plans only; not confirmed funding, completion or operational delivery."},{"profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Southern Hemisphere Monitoring — issued 15 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-15","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/","last_checked":"16 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","analytical_confidence":"High for reporting these dated official observations; local impact magnitude is not inferred","evidence_kind":"observation","observation_end":"2026-09-13","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","source_scope_note":"Only the explicitly dated 15 September overview is used. Older dated sections elsewhere on this rolling page are excluded.","evidence_id":"E0648","claim_text":"Weekly relative Niño3.4 reached +2.51°C for the week ending 13 September 2026.","page_or_section":"Overview bullet 1; relative Niño3.4"},{"profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Southern Hemisphere Monitoring — issued 15 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-15","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/","last_checked":"16 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","analytical_confidence":"High for reporting these dated official observations; local impact magnitude is not inferred","evidence_kind":"observation","observation_end":"2026-09-13","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","source_scope_note":"Only the explicitly dated 15 September overview is used. Older dated sections elsewhere on this rolling page are excluded.","evidence_id":"E0649","claim_text":"The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index through 13 September was −18.5.","page_or_section":"Overview bullet 4; 30-day SOI"},{"profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Southern Hemisphere Monitoring — issued 15 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-15","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/","last_checked":"16 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","analytical_confidence":"High for reporting these dated official observations; local impact magnitude is not inferred","evidence_kind":"observation","observation_end":"2026-09-13","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","source_scope_note":"Only the explicitly dated 15 September overview is used. Older dated sections elsewhere on this rolling page are excluded.","evidence_id":"E0650","claim_text":"IOD remains neutral: the weekly index was +0.65°C on 13 September, but one reading above +0.4°C does not establish a positive IOD.","page_or_section":"Overview bullet 7; neutral IOD and single-week threshold limitation"},{"profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Southern Hemisphere Monitoring — issued 15 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-15","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/","last_checked":"16 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified","analytical_confidence":"High for reporting these dated official observations; local impact magnitude is not inferred","evidence_kind":"observation","observation_end":"2026-09-13","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","source_scope_note":"Only the explicitly dated 15 September overview is used. Older dated sections elsewhere on this rolling page are excluded.","evidence_id":"E0651","claim_text":"For the week ending 13 September, Australian coastal SSTs were mostly above average; southern NSW and eastern/southern Tasmania reached about 2–3°C above average.","page_or_section":"Overview bullet 9; Australian-coastal SSTs"},{"publisher":"NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System / Western Regional Climate Center","source_title":"Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Pacific Region — September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-15","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/Pacific%20Summer%202026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://www.drought.gov/documents/quarterly-climate-impacts-and-outlook-pacific-region-september-2026","last_checked":"17 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official regional climate report","source_scope_note":"Observed rainfall statements cover June–August 2026. Seasonal outlook statements cover September–November 2026. Reported tropical-cyclone impacts are not attributed to El Niño in these tracker claims.","evidence_id":"E0652","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","evidence_kind":"observation","observation_start":"2026-06-01","observation_end":"2026-08-31","claim_text":"At Airai, Palau, June–August 2026 rainfall totalled 32.82 inches (74% of normal), the driest June–August in the station record reported by NOAA.","page_or_section":"PDF page 2, Climate Overview, precipitation paragraph","analytical_confidence":"High for the source-reported station total and ranking; one station does not establish uniform conditions across Palau or measure impacts."},{"publisher":"NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System / Western Regional Climate Center","source_title":"Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Pacific Region — September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-15","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/Pacific%20Summer%202026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://www.drought.gov/documents/quarterly-climate-impacts-and-outlook-pacific-region-september-2026","last_checked":"17 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official regional climate report","source_scope_note":"Observed rainfall statements cover June–August 2026. Seasonal outlook statements cover September–November 2026. Reported tropical-cyclone impacts are not attributed to El Niño in these tracker claims.","evidence_id":"E0653","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","evidence_kind":"observation","observation_start":"2026-06-01","observation_end":"2026-08-31","claim_text":"Pago Pago recorded 14.03 inches during June–August 2026, 75% of normal. NOAA also reports August as the sixth driest August in the referenced record.","page_or_section":"PDF pages 1–2, Significant Events and Climate Overview","analytical_confidence":"High for the source-reported station observations; rainfall category does not measure water availability, service interruption or humanitarian impact."},{"publisher":"NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System / Western Regional Climate Center","source_title":"Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Pacific Region — September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-15","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/Pacific%20Summer%202026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://www.drought.gov/documents/quarterly-climate-impacts-and-outlook-pacific-region-september-2026","last_checked":"17 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official regional climate report","source_scope_note":"Observed rainfall statements cover June–August 2026. Seasonal outlook statements cover September–November 2026. Reported tropical-cyclone impacts are not attributed to El Niño in these tracker claims.","evidence_id":"E0654","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","evidence_kind":"observation","observation_start":"2026-06-01","observation_end":"2026-08-31","claim_text":"Guam recorded 40.23 inches of rainfall during June–August 2026, 122% of normal.","page_or_section":"PDF page 2, Climate Overview, precipitation paragraph","analytical_confidence":"High for the source-reported station total; it does not imply that all locations or sectors experienced the same conditions."},{"publisher":"NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System / Western Regional Climate Center","source_title":"Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Pacific Region — September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-15","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/Pacific%20Summer%202026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://www.drought.gov/documents/quarterly-climate-impacts-and-outlook-pacific-region-september-2026","last_checked":"17 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official regional climate report","source_scope_note":"Observed rainfall statements cover June–August 2026. Seasonal outlook statements cover September–November 2026. Reported tropical-cyclone impacts are not attributed to El Niño in these tracker claims.","evidence_id":"E0655","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","evidence_kind":"observation","observation_start":"2026-06-01","observation_end":"2026-08-31","claim_text":"NOAA reports above-normal June–August rainfall at several FSM stations: Yap 51.82 inches (124% of normal), Kapingamarangi 42.77 inches (123%), Pohnpei 59.46 inches (130%), Lukunor 46.79 inches (158%), Kosrae 49.78 inches (111%) and Chuuk 56.09 inches (138%).","page_or_section":"PDF page 2, Climate Overview, precipitation paragraph","analytical_confidence":"High for the listed station totals; the observations are spatially specific and are not a uniform national impact assessment."},{"publisher":"NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System / Western Regional Climate Center","source_title":"Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Pacific Region — September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-15","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/Pacific%20Summer%202026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://www.drought.gov/documents/quarterly-climate-impacts-and-outlook-pacific-region-september-2026","last_checked":"17 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official regional climate report","source_scope_note":"Observed rainfall statements cover June–August 2026. Seasonal outlook statements cover September–November 2026. Reported tropical-cyclone impacts are not attributed to El Niño in these tracker claims.","evidence_id":"E0656","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","evidence_kind":"observation","observation_start":"2026-06-01","observation_end":"2026-08-31","claim_text":"For June–August 2026, Majuro recorded 35.35 inches (104% of normal), while Kwajalein recorded 41.83 inches (156% of normal), ranked as the fourth wettest June–August in the referenced record.","page_or_section":"PDF page 2, Climate Overview, precipitation paragraph","analytical_confidence":"High for the two source-reported station totals and the stated Kwajalein ranking; the figures do not represent every atoll."},{"publisher":"NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System / Western Regional Climate Center","source_title":"Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Pacific Region — September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-15","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/Pacific%20Summer%202026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://www.drought.gov/documents/quarterly-climate-impacts-and-outlook-pacific-region-september-2026","last_checked":"17 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official regional climate report","source_scope_note":"Observed rainfall statements cover June–August 2026. Seasonal outlook statements cover September–November 2026. Reported tropical-cyclone impacts are not attributed to El Niño in these tracker claims.","evidence_id":"E0657","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"seasonal_outlook","evidence_kind":"forecast","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","claim_text":"Below-normal rainfall is favoured for the Mariana Islands during September–November 2026.","page_or_section":"PDF page 4, Seasonal Outlook, precipitation forecast paragraph","analytical_confidence":"High for accurately reporting the official regional forecast category; local rainfall outcomes and impacts remain probabilistic and are not guaranteed."},{"publisher":"NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System / Western Regional Climate Center","source_title":"Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Pacific Region — September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-15","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/Pacific%20Summer%202026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://www.drought.gov/documents/quarterly-climate-impacts-and-outlook-pacific-region-september-2026","last_checked":"17 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official regional climate report","source_scope_note":"Observed rainfall statements cover June–August 2026. Seasonal outlook statements cover September–November 2026. Reported tropical-cyclone impacts are not attributed to El Niño in these tracker claims.","evidence_id":"E0658","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"seasonal_outlook","evidence_kind":"forecast","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","claim_text":"Below-normal rainfall is favoured for Palau during September–November 2026.","page_or_section":"PDF page 4, Seasonal Outlook, precipitation forecast paragraph","analytical_confidence":"High for accurately reporting the official regional forecast category; local rainfall outcomes and impacts remain probabilistic and are not guaranteed."},{"publisher":"NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System / Western Regional Climate Center","source_title":"Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Pacific Region — September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-15","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/Pacific%20Summer%202026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://www.drought.gov/documents/quarterly-climate-impacts-and-outlook-pacific-region-september-2026","last_checked":"17 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official regional climate report","source_scope_note":"Observed rainfall statements cover June–August 2026. Seasonal outlook statements cover September–November 2026. Reported tropical-cyclone impacts are not attributed to El Niño in these tracker claims.","evidence_id":"E0659","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"seasonal_outlook","evidence_kind":"forecast","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","claim_text":"Below-normal rainfall is favoured for much of the Federated States of Micronesia during September–November 2026.","page_or_section":"PDF page 4, Seasonal Outlook, precipitation forecast paragraph","analytical_confidence":"High for accurately reporting the official regional forecast category; local rainfall outcomes and impacts remain probabilistic and are not guaranteed."},{"publisher":"NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System / Western Regional Climate Center","source_title":"Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Pacific Region — September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-15","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/Pacific%20Summer%202026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://www.drought.gov/documents/quarterly-climate-impacts-and-outlook-pacific-region-september-2026","last_checked":"17 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official regional climate report","source_scope_note":"Observed rainfall statements cover June–August 2026. Seasonal outlook statements cover September–November 2026. Reported tropical-cyclone impacts are not attributed to El Niño in these tracker claims.","evidence_id":"E0660","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"seasonal_outlook","evidence_kind":"forecast","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","claim_text":"For September–November 2026, below-normal rainfall is favoured in central RMI while above-normal rainfall is expected in northern RMI; a single national category would obscure this spatial contrast.","page_or_section":"PDF page 4, Seasonal Outlook, precipitation forecast paragraph","analytical_confidence":"High for accurately reporting the official regional forecast category; local rainfall outcomes and impacts remain probabilistic and are not guaranteed."},{"publisher":"NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System / Western Regional Climate Center","source_title":"Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Pacific Region — September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-15","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/Pacific%20Summer%202026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://www.drought.gov/documents/quarterly-climate-impacts-and-outlook-pacific-region-september-2026","last_checked":"17 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official regional climate report","source_scope_note":"Observed rainfall statements cover June–August 2026. Seasonal outlook statements cover September–November 2026. Reported tropical-cyclone impacts are not attributed to El Niño in these tracker claims.","evidence_id":"E0661","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"seasonal_outlook","evidence_kind":"forecast","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","claim_text":"Below-normal rainfall is favoured for American Samoa during September–November 2026.","page_or_section":"PDF page 4, Seasonal Outlook, precipitation forecast paragraph","analytical_confidence":"High for accurately reporting the official regional forecast category; local rainfall outcomes and impacts remain probabilistic and are not guaranteed."},{"publisher":"NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System / Western Regional Climate Center","source_title":"Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Pacific Region — September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-15","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/Pacific%20Summer%202026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://www.drought.gov/documents/quarterly-climate-impacts-and-outlook-pacific-region-september-2026","last_checked":"17 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official regional climate report","source_scope_note":"Observed rainfall statements cover June–August 2026. Seasonal outlook statements cover September–November 2026. Reported tropical-cyclone impacts are not attributed to El Niño in these tracker claims.","evidence_id":"E0662","profile_id":"","country_ids":["american-samoa","cook-islands","federated-states-of-micronesia","fiji","french-polynesia","guam","kiribati","marshall-islands","nauru","new-caledonia","northern-mariana-islands","palau","papua-new-guinea","pitcairn-islands","samoa","solomon-islands","tokelau","tonga","tuvalu","vanuatu","wallis-and-futuna"],"scope_label":"Tropical Pacific","used_for_field":"marine_heat_outlook","evidence_kind":"forecast","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","claim_text":"NOAA Coral Reef Watch’s four-month outlook cited in the report gives a 90% probability of widespread high bleaching heat stress (Alert Levels 1–2) across much of the west-central, central and eastern tropical Pacific during September–December 2026.","page_or_section":"PDF page 4, Seasonal Outlook, coral bleaching heat-stress paragraph and map","analytical_confidence":"High for reporting the official probabilistic heat-stress outlook; reef-level bleaching, ecological loss and country impacts are not established by the regional probability alone."},{"publisher":"Pacific Meteorological Desk and Partnership (SPREP)","source_title":"Pacific meteorological products and services directory","publication_date":"n.d.","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/products-services","last_checked":"17 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified official regional source directory","source_scope_note":"Directory of regional climate-service products. It is not itself a dated forecast and does not establish current conditions or impacts.","evidence_id":"E0663","profile_id":"","scope_label":"Pacific regional climate services","used_for_field":"regional_guidance","evidence_kind":"regional_guidance","claim_text":"The Pacific Meteorological Desk and Partnership directory identifies the COSPPac Climate Bulletin, Online Climate Outlook Forum and SCOPIC as regional products supporting ENSO monitoring and seasonal climate services.","page_or_section":"COSPPac section, product descriptions 1–4","analytical_confidence":"High for describing the official service directory; individual outlooks must be cited to their dated issue."},{"publisher":"Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPac) / Pacific Meteorological Desk and Partnership","source_title":"COSPPac Monthly Bulletin — issued 9 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-09","exact_url":"https://bulletin.pacificmet.net/cos/bulletin","source_page_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/products-and-services/climate-bulletin","last_checked":"17 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified official regional climate bulletin","source_scope_note":"Regional bulletin issued 9 September 2026. Current conditions and September–November outlooks are distinct; country and subnational outcomes remain probabilistic.","evidence_id":"E0664","profile_id":"","scope_label":"Tropical southwest Pacific","used_for_field":"enso_status","evidence_kind":"observation","claim_text":"The COSPPac bulletin issued 9 September 2026 states that El Niño is firmly established and reports August 2026 Pacific sea-surface temperatures as mostly near to above normal, with highest-on-record values in parts of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific.","page_or_section":"Bulletin summary, issued 9 September 2026, bullets 1 and 4","analytical_confidence":"High for accurately reporting the dated regional bulletin; this does not determine impact severity in any country."},{"publisher":"Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPac) / Pacific Meteorological Desk and Partnership","source_title":"COSPPac Monthly Bulletin — issued 9 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-09","exact_url":"https://bulletin.pacificmet.net/cos/bulletin","source_page_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/products-and-services/climate-bulletin","last_checked":"17 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified official regional seasonal outlook","source_scope_note":"September–November 2026 probabilistic rainfall outlook. The listed areas are not guaranteed to experience the category and local forecasts may provide finer detail.","evidence_id":"E0665","profile_id":"","country_ids":["federated-states-of-micronesia","marshall-islands","nauru","kiribati","tuvalu","tokelau","cook-islands","french-polynesia"],"scope_label":"Selected northern and central Pacific areas","used_for_field":"seasonal_outlook","evidence_kind":"forecast","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","claim_text":"For September–November 2026, the bulletin identifies above-normal rainfall as likely or very likely for eastern FSM, northern and southern RMI, Nauru, Kiribati, northern Tuvalu, Tokelau, northern Cook Islands and far northern French Polynesia.","page_or_section":"Bulletin summary, issued 9 September 2026, rainfall outlook bullet","analytical_confidence":"High for the published regional categories; some country entries cover only specified subregions, so a single national category can be misleading."},{"publisher":"Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPac) / Pacific Meteorological Desk and Partnership","source_title":"COSPPac Monthly Bulletin — issued 9 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-09","exact_url":"https://bulletin.pacificmet.net/cos/bulletin","source_page_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/products-and-services/climate-bulletin","last_checked":"17 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified official regional seasonal outlook","source_scope_note":"September–November 2026 probabilistic rainfall outlook. Several listed countries have subregional exceptions, which are retained in the claim.","evidence_id":"E0666","profile_id":"","country_ids":["guam","northern-mariana-islands","palau","papua-new-guinea","solomon-islands","new-caledonia","vanuatu","fiji","tonga","niue","tuvalu","wallis-and-futuna","samoa","american-samoa","tokelau","cook-islands","french-polynesia","pitcairn-islands"],"scope_label":"Selected western and southern Pacific areas","used_for_field":"seasonal_outlook","evidence_kind":"forecast","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","claim_text":"For September–November 2026, the bulletin identifies below-normal rainfall as likely or very likely for CNMI, Guam, Palau, PNG, Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, Niue, southern Tuvalu, Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, American Samoa, southern Tokelau, most of the Cook Islands and French Polynesia, and Pitcairn Islands.","page_or_section":"Bulletin summary, issued 9 September 2026, rainfall outlook bullet","analytical_confidence":"High for the published regional categories; local and national products should be preferred where they provide finer spatial detail."},{"publisher":"Pacific Meteorological Desk and Partnership / Pacific Island National Meteorological Services","source_title":"Online Climate Outlook Forum — Forum 227","publication_date":"2026-09","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/products-and-services/online-climate-outlook-forum","last_checked":"17 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified official regional forum archive and country-outlook directory","source_scope_note":"The forum page links an ENSO update, regional summary and country outlook files. It is indexed as a source directory; each country forecast must be interpreted from its own dated file.","evidence_id":"E0667","profile_id":"","scope_label":"Pacific regional and country climate outlooks","used_for_field":"regional_guidance","evidence_kind":"regional_guidance","claim_text":"OCOF provides a regular forum for Pacific meteorological services to discuss ENSO status and share seasonal outlooks; Forum 227 includes an ENSO update and outlook files for 14 Pacific countries and areas.","page_or_section":"Forum 227 summary, ENSO Update and country outlook file list","analytical_confidence":"High for the availability and scope of the official forum materials; the directory alone is not a forecast finding."},{"publisher":"Pacific Meteorological Desk and Partnership / COSPPac","source_title":"Seasonal Climate Outlooks in Pacific Island Countries (SCOPIC)","publication_date":"n.d.","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/products-and-services/seasonal-climate-outlooks-pacific-island-countries-scopic","last_checked":"17 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified official regional methodology and software page","source_scope_note":"Method and tool documentation, not a current forecast. SCOPIC output quality depends on input data, model skill and local interpretation.","evidence_id":"E0668","profile_id":"","scope_label":"Pacific seasonal forecast methodology","used_for_field":"regional_guidance","evidence_kind":"regional_guidance","claim_text":"SCOPIC is a stand-alone statistical decision-support tool used by eleven Pacific National Meteorological Services to produce probabilistic seasonal outlooks from historical data, with hindcasts, skill testing, drought monitoring and other analytical functions.","page_or_section":"About, paragraphs 1–5; Software release 4.4.17; SCOPIC e-learning section","analytical_confidence":"High for describing the official tool and its documented functions; this record does not validate a particular forecast."},{"publisher":"Pacific Meteorological Council / SPREP","source_title":"Eighth Meeting of the Pacific Meteorological Council (PMC-8)","publication_date":"2026-09-14","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/pmc-8","last_checked":"17 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified official regional meeting record and document index","source_scope_note":"Meeting agenda and working-paper index. Agenda entries show subjects considered, not necessarily adopted decisions; outcomes should be cited separately when available.","evidence_id":"E0669","profile_id":"","scope_label":"Pacific regional meteorological governance","used_for_field":"regional_guidance","evidence_kind":"regional_guidance","claim_text":"PMC-8 included a Pacific RCC Network ENSO update with materials on El Niño, sea level and tropical cyclones, followed by an anticipatory-action block covering MHEWS/EW4All, NDMO priorities and parametric insurance and anticipatory action.","page_or_section":"Agenda items 15.2 and 17.1–17.5, 11 September 2026","analytical_confidence":"High for the official agenda and linked-document index; no claim of endorsement or implementation is made here."},{"publisher":"Fourth Pacific Ministerial Meeting on Meteorology / SPREP","source_title":"Fourth Pacific Ministerial Meeting on Meteorology (PMMM-4)","publication_date":"2026-09-16","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/pmmm-4","last_checked":"17 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified official ministerial meeting record and document index","source_scope_note":"Ministerial agenda and explanatory material. It documents the decision context; it does not by itself show that proposed measures were funded or implemented.","evidence_id":"E0670","profile_id":"","scope_label":"Pacific ministerial policy and preparedness context","used_for_field":"regional_guidance","evidence_kind":"regional_guidance","claim_text":"PMMM-4 placed the state of El Niño in the Pacific on its ministerial agenda. Its explanatory note links the outlook to rainfall, drought, water security, agriculture, health, fisheries, energy and disaster preparedness, and calls for coordination, communication and early preparedness without recording those actions as already implemented.","page_or_section":"Provisional agenda item 6.1; Explanatory Note, agenda item 6, page 3","analytical_confidence":"High for the official agenda and explanatory note; adopted commitments require the final ministerial declaration or meeting outcome."},{"publisher":"U.S. Drought Monitor / National Drought Mitigation Center","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor National Drought Summary — September 17, 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260915.html","last_checked":"18 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official weekly drought-monitor narrative","source_scope_note":"Pacific observations cover 9–15 September 2026 and classifications are valid 15 September. Station totals are not national impact assessments; missing days and unavailable stations are retained where material. Exact dated original HTML recovered. Header gives 17 September release, and narrative covers 9–15 September. All rainfall quantities and missing-day qualifications in the existing claim were checked against the relevant paragraph; classifications are subnational monitoring, not emergency declarations. National Drought Summary released 17 September 2026, Pacific section > American Samoa paragraph","evidence_id":"E0671","profile_id":"american-samoa","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","evidence_kind":"observation","observation_start":"2026-09-09","observation_end":"2026-09-15","claim_text":"American Samoa remained in D1-S short-term moderate drought for the week valid 15 September 2026 despite beneficial rainfall. Pago Pago recorded 2.68 inches with one day missing, Siufaga Ridge 6.56 inches and Toa Ridge 5.43 inches; the Monitor said further rainfall could improve conditions.","page_or_section":"National Drought Summary released 17 September 2026, Pacific section > American Samoa paragraph","analytical_confidence":"High for the official weekly classification and listed station totals; subsequent recovery and household or service impacts are not established by this weekly record."},{"publisher":"U.S. Drought Monitor / National Drought Mitigation Center","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor National Drought Summary — September 17, 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260915.html","last_checked":"18 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official weekly drought-monitor narrative","source_scope_note":"Pacific observations cover 9–15 September 2026 and classifications are valid 15 September. Station totals are not national impact assessments; missing days and unavailable stations are retained where material. Exact dated original HTML recovered. Header gives 17 September release, and narrative covers 9–15 September. All rainfall quantities and missing-day qualifications in the existing claim were checked against the relevant paragraph; classifications are subnational monitoring, not emergency declarations. National Drought Summary released 17 September 2026, Pacific section > Federated States of Micronesia paragraph","evidence_id":"E0672","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","evidence_kind":"observation","observation_start":"2026-09-09","observation_end":"2026-09-15","claim_text":"Kapingamarangi remained D0-S short-term abnormal dryness for the week valid 15 September 2026 after at least three dry weeks, although recent rainfall brought some improvement. Kapingamarangi recorded 0.98 inches; most other reporting stations received roughly 1.88–5.91 inches, while Fananu and Pingelap had no data.","page_or_section":"National Drought Summary released 17 September 2026, Pacific section > Federated States of Micronesia paragraph","analytical_confidence":"High for the official island classification and source-reported station totals; conditions across FSM remain spatially heterogeneous and two stations had no data."},{"publisher":"U.S. Drought Monitor / National Drought Mitigation Center","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor National Drought Summary — September 17, 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260915.html","last_checked":"18 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official weekly drought-monitor narrative","source_scope_note":"Pacific observations cover 9–15 September 2026 and classifications are valid 15 September. Station totals are not national impact assessments; missing days and unavailable stations are retained where material. Exact dated original HTML recovered. Header gives 17 September release, and narrative covers 9–15 September. All rainfall quantities and missing-day qualifications in the existing claim were checked against the relevant paragraph; classifications are subnational monitoring, not emergency declarations. National Drought Summary released 17 September 2026, Pacific section > Mariana Islands paragraphs","evidence_id":"E0673","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","evidence_kind":"observation","observation_start":"2026-09-09","observation_end":"2026-09-15","claim_text":"Guam remained free of dryness or drought for the week valid 15 September 2026. The island averaged 2.7 inches, including 4.49 inches at Antonio B. Won Pat International Airport, 3.19 inches at Agat and 3.13 inches at Dededo, where two days were missing.","page_or_section":"National Drought Summary released 17 September 2026, Pacific section > Mariana Islands paragraphs","analytical_confidence":"High for the official weekly classification and listed station totals; weekly rainfall does not establish sector impacts or uniform conditions at every location."},{"publisher":"U.S. Drought Monitor / National Drought Mitigation Center","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor National Drought Summary — September 17, 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260915.html","last_checked":"18 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official weekly drought-monitor narrative","source_scope_note":"Pacific observations cover 9–15 September 2026 and classifications are valid 15 September. Station totals are not national impact assessments; missing days and unavailable stations are retained where material. Exact dated original HTML recovered. Header gives 17 September release, and narrative covers 9–15 September. All rainfall quantities and missing-day qualifications in the existing claim were checked against the relevant paragraph; classifications are subnational monitoring, not emergency declarations. National Drought Summary released 17 September 2026, Pacific section > Mariana Islands paragraphs","evidence_id":"E0674","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","evidence_kind":"observation","observation_start":"2026-09-09","observation_end":"2026-09-15","claim_text":"The Northern Mariana Islands remained free of dryness or drought for the week valid 15 September 2026. Saipan averaged more than 3.18 inches, Rota received 2.54 inches, and Tinian reported 0.06 inches with six of seven days missing.","page_or_section":"National Drought Summary released 17 September 2026, Pacific section > Mariana Islands paragraphs","analytical_confidence":"High for the official weekly classification; confidence in the Tinian weekly total is limited by six missing days."},{"publisher":"U.S. Drought Monitor / National Drought Mitigation Center","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor National Drought Summary — September 17, 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260915.html","last_checked":"18 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official weekly drought-monitor narrative","source_scope_note":"Pacific observations cover 9–15 September 2026 and classifications are valid 15 September. Station totals are not national impact assessments; missing days and unavailable stations are retained where material. Exact dated original HTML recovered. Header gives 17 September release, and narrative covers 9–15 September. All rainfall quantities and missing-day qualifications in the existing claim were checked against the relevant paragraph; classifications are subnational monitoring, not emergency declarations. National Drought Summary released 17 September 2026, Pacific section > Palau paragraph","evidence_id":"E0675","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","evidence_kind":"observation","observation_start":"2026-09-09","observation_end":"2026-09-15","claim_text":"Palau remained in D1-S short-term moderate drought for the week valid 15 September 2026. Koror and Airai each recorded 1.87 inches after two consecutive dry weeks; the Monitor assessed the weekly amount as still inadequate.","page_or_section":"National Drought Summary released 17 September 2026, Pacific section > Palau paragraph","analytical_confidence":"High for the official weekly classification and two station totals; the record does not measure reservoir storage, water-service interruption or household impacts."},{"publisher":"U.S. Drought Monitor / National Drought Mitigation Center","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor National Drought Summary — September 17, 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260915.html","last_checked":"18 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official weekly drought-monitor narrative","source_scope_note":"Pacific observations cover 9–15 September 2026 and classifications are valid 15 September. Station totals are not national impact assessments; missing days and unavailable stations are retained where material. Exact dated original HTML recovered. Header gives 17 September release, and narrative covers 9–15 September. All rainfall quantities and missing-day qualifications in the existing claim were checked against the relevant paragraph; classifications are subnational monitoring, not emergency declarations. National Drought Summary released 17 September 2026, Pacific section > Marshall Islands / Utirik paragraphs","evidence_id":"E0676","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","evidence_kind":"observation","observation_start":"2026-09-09","observation_end":"2026-09-15","claim_text":"Utirik entered D0-S short-term abnormal dryness in the U.S. Drought Monitor valid 15 September 2026 after several weeks of inadequate rainfall, despite receiving 1.74 inches during 9–15 September. Other listed Marshall Islands stations received more than 3 inches during the week, including Ailinglapalap 6.41 inches and Kwajalein 5.84 inches.","page_or_section":"National Drought Summary released 17 September 2026, Pacific section > Marshall Islands / Utirik paragraphs","analytical_confidence":"High for the official atoll classification and listed weekly totals; Utirik must not be generalized as a national drought classification for all Marshall Islands atolls."},{"publisher":"ABC News","source_title":"Frosty and dry conditions from El Niño create localised food shortages in PNG","publication_date":"2026-09-16","exact_url":"https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-16/frost-freezes-crops-in-png-as-el-nino-takes-hold/107134520","last_checked":"18 September 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Established media report; named interviews and supplied local observations; not an official national assessment","source_scope_note":"The article combines interviews, supplied photographs and statements from community, government, civil-society and technical actors. Local observations are retained as attributed reports. National prevalence, causality and completed outcomes are not inferred. Exact original ABC article body and date recovered. The cited wording supports localized interview-based reporting and reported government/network activity; it does not independently verify national prevalence, clinical diagnosis, expenditure, reach or outcomes. ABC article published 16 September 2026 > opening / Kosipe and Upper Mendi paragraphs","evidence_id":"E0677","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"observed_impacts","evidence_kind":"reported_impact","claim_text":"ABC News reported localized 2026 crop damage in Papua New Guinea based on community interviews and supplied images: residents in Kosipe, Goilala District described repeated frost and severe garden losses, while Upper Mendi residents reported that unusually heavy frost in June destroyed taro, sweet potato, bananas and sugar cane. These are localized reports, not a national impact estimate.","page_or_section":"ABC article published 16 September 2026 > opening / Kosipe and Upper Mendi paragraphs","analytical_confidence":"Moderate: named local testimony and source-labelled images support occurrence in the cited places, but the report does not provide a systematic assessment, quantify affected people or independently attribute each local impact to El Niño."},{"publisher":"ABC News","source_title":"Frosty and dry conditions from El Niño create localised food shortages in PNG","publication_date":"2026-09-16","exact_url":"https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-16/frost-freezes-crops-in-png-as-el-nino-takes-hold/107134520","last_checked":"18 September 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Established media report; named interviews and supplied local observations; not an official national assessment","source_scope_note":"The article combines interviews, supplied photographs and statements from community, government, civil-society and technical actors. Local observations are retained as attributed reports. National prevalence, causality and completed outcomes are not inferred. Exact original ABC article body and date recovered. The cited wording supports localized interview-based reporting and reported government/network activity; it does not independently verify national prevalence, clinical diagnosis, expenditure, reach or outcomes. ABC article published 16 September 2026 > A slow-moving disaster, river caption and government-response paragraphs","evidence_id":"E0678","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","used_for_field":"observed_impacts_and_response","evidence_kind":"reported_impact","claim_text":"ABC News reported that low water levels had halted river trade in parts of Western Province and that road transport was being used for essential goods. It also reported an additional K500 million government allocation for El Niño response and a June instruction to provinces and districts to identify water sources, vulnerable communities and food-security risks. Implementation and expenditure were not independently verified in the article.","page_or_section":"ABC article published 16 September 2026 > A slow-moving disaster, river caption and government-response paragraphs","analytical_confidence":"Moderate for accurately representing the established media report and attributed government statements; geographic coverage, disbursement and operational results require confirmation from official records."},{"publisher":"ABC News","source_title":"Frosty and dry conditions from El Niño create localised food shortages in PNG","publication_date":"2026-09-16","exact_url":"https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-16/frost-freezes-crops-in-png-as-el-nino-takes-hold/107134520","last_checked":"18 September 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Established media report; named interviews and supplied local observations; not an official national assessment","source_scope_note":"The article combines interviews, supplied photographs and statements from community, government, civil-society and technical actors. Local observations are retained as attributed reports. National prevalence, causality and completed outcomes are not inferred. Exact original ABC article body and date recovered. The cited wording supports localized interview-based reporting and reported government/network activity; it does not independently verify national prevalence, clinical diagnosis, expenditure, reach or outcomes. ABC article published 16 September 2026 > Taking warnings from kitchen to kitchen, household water and school paragraphs","evidence_id":"E0679","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"observed_impacts","evidence_kind":"reported_impact","claim_text":"ABC News reported localized Vanuatu observations from market vendors and community actors: dying island cabbage, poor-quality bananas, pressure on household water supplies, some girls missing school to collect water or provide care, and residents reporting skin conditions as water levels and quality worsened. These reports are not a national prevalence estimate or clinical assessment.","page_or_section":"ABC article published 16 September 2026 > Taking warnings from kitchen to kitchen, household water and school paragraphs","analytical_confidence":"Moderate: the article attributes the observations to named or described local actors, but the geographic sample, frequency and causal contribution of El Niño were not independently assessed."},{"publisher":"ABC News","source_title":"Frosty and dry conditions from El Niño create localised food shortages in PNG","publication_date":"2026-09-16","exact_url":"https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-16/frost-freezes-crops-in-png-as-el-nino-takes-hold/107134520","last_checked":"18 September 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Established media report; named interviews and supplied local observations; not an official national assessment","source_scope_note":"The article combines interviews, supplied photographs and statements from community, government, civil-society and technical actors. Local observations are retained as attributed reports. National prevalence, causality and completed outcomes are not inferred. Exact original ABC article body and date recovered. The cited wording supports localized interview-based reporting and reported government/network activity; it does not independently verify national prevalence, clinical diagnosis, expenditure, reach or outcomes. This supports a planning recommendation, not proof that the proposed local action is funded or implemented. ABC article published 16 September 2026 > Taking warnings from kitchen to kitchen, coordination and women-led network paragraphs","evidence_id":"E0680","profile_id":"vanuatu","used_for_field":"preparedness_actions","evidence_kind":"reported_action","claim_text":"ABC News reported weekly coordination by Vanuatu government agencies with sectors including water and tourism, alongside an ActionAid Vanuatu women-led network carrying official information between agencies and isolated communities. The report documents the approach being used; it does not evaluate reach, effectiveness, funding or avoided impacts.","page_or_section":"ABC article published 16 September 2026 > Taking warnings from kitchen to kitchen, coordination and women-led network paragraphs","analytical_confidence":"Moderate for the existence of the reported coordination and communication approach; effectiveness and national coverage remain unverified."},{"publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network / SPREP","source_title":"State of El Niño in the Pacific — PMMM-4 Agenda Item 6.1","publication_date":"2026-09-16","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/sites/default/files/PMMM-4/Presentations/Agenda%20Item_6.1_revised_PMMM%20El%20Nino%20presentation_Updated_final-1.pdf","last_checked":"19 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Official regional technical presentation to PMMM-4; not a national warning or adopted ministerial declaration","source_scope_note":"Regional assessment prepared by Pacific RCC Network members and presented by SPREP. Model projections and reported member-country status remain forecasts or reported status; they are not observed impacts or binding national warnings.","evidence_id":"E0681","profile_id":"","used_for_field":"seasonal_outlook","evidence_kind":"forecast","valid_from":"2026-09-16","valid_to":"2027-05-31","claim_text":"The Pacific RCC Network presentation assessed the 2026 El Niño as strong and already among the strongest events of the last half-century. It said further strengthening was likely, with a peak in late 2026 or early 2027 and persistence into March–May 2027.","page_or_section":"PDF page 4: ENSO strength, strengthening, peak and persistence bullets","analytical_confidence":"High for accurately representing the official regional assessment and its stated time horizon; country impacts, peak magnitude and ending date remain conditional forecasts."},{"publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network / SPREP","source_title":"State of El Niño in the Pacific — PMMM-4 Agenda Item 6.1","publication_date":"2026-09-16","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/sites/default/files/PMMM-4/Presentations/Agenda%20Item_6.1_revised_PMMM%20El%20Nino%20presentation_Updated_final-1.pdf","last_checked":"19 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Official regional technical presentation to PMMM-4; not a national warning or adopted ministerial declaration","source_scope_note":"Regional assessment prepared by Pacific RCC Network members and presented by SPREP. Model projections and reported member-country status remain forecasts or reported status; they are not observed impacts or binding national warnings.","evidence_id":"E0682","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"seasonal_outlook","evidence_kind":"forecast","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","claim_text":"The regional ACCESS-S outlook presented to PMMM-4 projected sea level more than 30 cm below normal in parts of Palau during September–November 2026, with possible exposure of coral reefs and mangrove forests.","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: below-normal sea-level forecast and potential exposure bullets","analytical_confidence":"Moderate-to-high for the published regional model signal; “parts of Palau” is spatially limited, and the projection is not an observation or a verified impact assessment."},{"publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network / SPREP","source_title":"State of El Niño in the Pacific — PMMM-4 Agenda Item 6.1","publication_date":"2026-09-16","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/sites/default/files/PMMM-4/Presentations/Agenda%20Item_6.1_revised_PMMM%20El%20Nino%20presentation_Updated_final-1.pdf","last_checked":"19 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Official regional technical presentation to PMMM-4; not a national warning or adopted ministerial declaration","source_scope_note":"Regional assessment prepared by Pacific RCC Network members and presented by SPREP. Model projections and reported member-country status remain forecasts or reported status; they are not observed impacts or binding national warnings.","evidence_id":"E0683","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"seasonal_outlook","evidence_kind":"forecast","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","claim_text":"The regional ACCESS-S outlook presented to PMMM-4 projected sea level more than 30 cm below normal in parts of the Federated States of Micronesia during September–November 2026, with possible exposure of coral reefs and mangrove forests.","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: below-normal sea-level forecast and potential exposure bullets","analytical_confidence":"Moderate-to-high for the published regional model signal; the projection applies to parts of FSM, not every state or island, and is not an observed impact."},{"publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network / SPREP","source_title":"State of El Niño in the Pacific — PMMM-4 Agenda Item 6.1","publication_date":"2026-09-16","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/sites/default/files/PMMM-4/Presentations/Agenda%20Item_6.1_revised_PMMM%20El%20Nino%20presentation_Updated_final-1.pdf","last_checked":"19 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Official regional technical presentation to PMMM-4; not a national warning or adopted ministerial declaration","source_scope_note":"Regional assessment prepared by Pacific RCC Network members and presented by SPREP. Model projections and reported member-country status remain forecasts or reported status; they are not observed impacts or binding national warnings.","evidence_id":"E0684","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"seasonal_outlook","evidence_kind":"forecast","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","claim_text":"The regional ACCESS-S outlook presented to PMMM-4 projected sea level more than 30 cm below normal in parts of the Republic of the Marshall Islands during September–November 2026, with possible exposure of coral reefs and mangrove forests.","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: below-normal sea-level forecast and potential exposure bullets","analytical_confidence":"Moderate-to-high for the published regional model signal; the projection applies to parts of RMI, not every atoll, and is not an observed impact."},{"publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network / SPREP","source_title":"State of El Niño in the Pacific — PMMM-4 Agenda Item 6.1","publication_date":"2026-09-16","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/sites/default/files/PMMM-4/Presentations/Agenda%20Item_6.1_revised_PMMM%20El%20Nino%20presentation_Updated_final-1.pdf","last_checked":"19 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Official regional technical presentation to PMMM-4; not a national warning or adopted ministerial declaration","source_scope_note":"Regional assessment prepared by Pacific RCC Network members and presented by SPREP. Model projections and reported member-country status remain forecasts or reported status; they are not observed impacts or binding national warnings.","evidence_id":"E0685","profile_id":"kiribati","used_for_field":"seasonal_outlook","evidence_kind":"forecast","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30","claim_text":"The regional ACCESS-S outlook presented to PMMM-4 projected sea level more than 10 cm above normal in central and eastern Kiribati during September–November 2026 and noted greater inundation risk when high sea level coincides with a king tide or storm.","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: central/eastern Kiribati sea-level and inundation-risk bullets","analytical_confidence":"Moderate-to-high for the published regional model signal; local inundation depends on tides, storms, shoreline conditions and exposure and is not established by the outlook alone."},{"publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network / SPREP","source_title":"State of El Niño in the Pacific — PMMM-4 Agenda Item 6.1","publication_date":"2026-09-16","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/sites/default/files/PMMM-4/Presentations/Agenda%20Item_6.1_revised_PMMM%20El%20Nino%20presentation_Updated_final-1.pdf","last_checked":"19 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Official regional technical presentation to PMMM-4; not a national warning or adopted ministerial declaration","source_scope_note":"Regional assessment prepared by Pacific RCC Network members and presented by SPREP. Model projections and reported member-country status remain forecasts or reported status; they are not observed impacts or binding national warnings.","evidence_id":"E0686","profile_id":"","used_for_field":"readiness_stocktake","evidence_kind":"expert_survey","observation_start":"2026-08-20","observation_end":"2026-09-13","claim_text":"The presentation summarized 23 SPC–UNDRR stocktake responses from 13 Pacific countries and territories: 21 respondents reported a national coordination mechanism, 13 reported a national El Niño preparedness plan and 9 reported a sector contingency or response plan. Funding was requested by 19 respondents, water security by 15, and technical assistance, logistics and emergency coordination by 13 each.","page_or_section":"PDF page 18: stocktake sample, plan/mechanism counts and requested support","analytical_confidence":"Moderate for the response counts and selected options in the cited stocktake version; responses are expert self-reports, multiple responses may come from one country, and the figures are not official country verification or regional prevalence estimates."},{"publisher":"Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network / SPREP","source_title":"State of El Niño in the Pacific — PMMM-4 Agenda Item 6.1","publication_date":"2026-09-16","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/sites/default/files/PMMM-4/Presentations/Agenda%20Item_6.1_revised_PMMM%20El%20Nino%20presentation_Updated_final-1.pdf","last_checked":"19 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Official regional technical presentation to PMMM-4; not a national warning or adopted ministerial declaration","source_scope_note":"Regional assessment prepared by Pacific RCC Network members and presented by SPREP. Model projections and reported member-country status remain forecasts or reported status; they are not observed impacts or binding national warnings.","evidence_id":"E0687","profile_id":"","used_for_field":"preparedness_guidance","evidence_kind":"proposed_action","valid_from":"2026-09-16","claim_text":"The Agenda Item 6.1 presentation invited the meeting to request continued awareness and preparatory measures and to recommend that ministers present a paper to their Council of Ministers seeking budgetary support for El Niño preparedness and response.","page_or_section":"PDF page 19: Request and Recommend bullets","analytical_confidence":"High for the wording of the proposal; the slide records actions the meeting was invited to consider, not proof of ministerial adoption, national budget allocation or implementation."},{"publisher":"Pacific Meteorological Council / SPREP","source_title":"Outcomes from the Eighth Pacific Meteorological Council — PMMM-4 Agenda Item 2.2","publication_date":"2026-09-16","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/sites/default/files/PMMM-4/Presentations/Agenda%20Item_2.2_Agenda_2.2_PMC-8_Outcomes_for_Ministers_v2.pdf","last_checked":"19 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Official presentation of PMC-8 outcomes to PMMM-4; decision and follow-through status stated explicitly","source_scope_note":"This source reports decisions of PMC-8 and matters submitted to PMMM-4. PMC adoption is not treated as ministerial endorsement, funded delivery or verified implementation.","evidence_id":"E0688","profile_id":"","used_for_field":"regional_governance","evidence_kind":"governance_decision","valid_from":"2026-09-14","claim_text":"PMC-8 adopted the Pacific Islands Meteorological Strategy 2027–2036 as its overarching strategy and submitted it to PMMM-4 for endorsement. The presentation said supporting plans were due by the end of November 2026 and described One Pacific Meteorology as endorsed in principle.","page_or_section":"PDF page 5 (slide footer 02): PIMS 2027–2036 and One Pacific Meteorology rows","analytical_confidence":"High for the reported PMC decision status; PMMM-4 endorsement and later implementation are not established by this presentation."},{"publisher":"Pacific Meteorological Council / SPREP","source_title":"Outcomes from the Eighth Pacific Meteorological Council — PMMM-4 Agenda Item 2.2","publication_date":"2026-09-16","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/sites/default/files/PMMM-4/Presentations/Agenda%20Item_2.2_Agenda_2.2_PMC-8_Outcomes_for_Ministers_v2.pdf","last_checked":"19 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Official presentation of PMC-8 outcomes to PMMM-4; decision and follow-through status stated explicitly","source_scope_note":"This source reports decisions of PMC-8 and matters submitted to PMMM-4. Requests for programming and further design are not treated as completed financing or operational delivery.","evidence_id":"E0689","profile_id":"","used_for_field":"regional_preparedness","evidence_kind":"governance_decision","valid_from":"2026-09-14","claim_text":"PMC-8 welcomed the Weather Ready Pacific–CREWS memorandum and requested practical programming arrangements, and tasked partners to explore durable operations and maintenance financing with the Pacific Resilience Facility.","page_or_section":"PDF page 6 (slide footer 03): WRP–CREWS and operations/maintenance financing bullets","analytical_confidence":"High for the reported PMC directions; programming arrangements, financing and operational benefits remain future work and are not verified outcomes."},{"publisher":"Weather Ready Pacific / SPREP","source_title":"Weather Ready Pacific Steering Committee meets in Tonga to strengthen delivery across the Pacific","publication_date":"2026-09-18","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/news/weather-ready-pacific-steering-committee-meets-tonga-strengthen-delivery-across-pacific","last_checked":"19 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Primary official programme update; plan approval reported by the implementing regional organization","source_scope_note":"The article reports programme governance and approved planning documents. It does not provide the underlying plan, expenditure ledger or outcome evaluation.","evidence_id":"E0690","profile_id":"","used_for_field":"regional_preparedness","evidence_kind":"governance_decision","valid_from":"2026-09-15","valid_to":"2029-12-31","claim_text":"The fifth Weather Ready Pacific Steering Committee meeting on 15 September approved the updated WRP Implementation Plan and funded Work Plan 2026–2029. The official update describes WRP as a decade-long Pacific-led programme with estimated investment of about USD 191 million.","page_or_section":"Article paragraphs 1–5, especially approval of the updated implementation and funded work plan","analytical_confidence":"High for the reported approval and programme estimate; the article does not establish country allocations, expenditure, completion or avoided losses."},{"profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Australian long-range forecast — issued 17 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","last_checked":"21 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","verification_status":"Official dated forecast overview and summary bullets checked at the original publisher","source_scope_note":"The page heading spans October to January, but the cited summary explicitly covers October to December, with a separately identified October-only forecast. These are forecasts, not observed impacts.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful reporting of the official forecast; forecast probabilities are not certainty and do not establish local impact severity.","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","evidence_id":"E0691","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"October–December rainfall has a 60% to greater than 80% chance of exceeding average across most of Western Australia and South Australia, the southern two-thirds of Northern Territory, western Queensland and parts of northern New South Wales. A 60–80% chance of below-average rainfall applies to much of the south-east and parts of the far north.","page_or_section":"Rainfall — Summary, October–December, bullets 1 and 3"},{"profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Australian long-range forecast — issued 17 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","last_checked":"21 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","verification_status":"Official dated forecast overview and summary bullets checked at the original publisher","source_scope_note":"The page heading spans October to January, but the cited summary explicitly covers October to December, with a separately identified October-only forecast. These are forecasts, not observed impacts.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful reporting of the official forecast; forecast probabilities are not certainty and do not establish local impact severity.","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-10-31","evidence_id":"E0692","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"For October alone, below-average rainfall has a 60% to greater than 80% chance across much of eastern and northern Australia and far south-west Western Australia. This broader dry signal must not be substituted for the three-month forecast.","page_or_section":"Rainfall — Summary, October-only bullet 5"},{"profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Australian long-range forecast — issued 17 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","last_checked":"21 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","verification_status":"Official dated forecast overview and summary bullets checked at the original publisher","source_scope_note":"The page heading spans October to January, but the cited summary explicitly covers October to December, with a separately identified October-only forecast. These are forecasts, not observed impacts.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful reporting of the official forecast; forecast probabilities are not certainty and do not establish local impact severity.","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","evidence_id":"E0693","used_for_field":"temperature_outlook","claim_text":"October–December maximum temperatures have a 60% to greater than 80% chance of exceeding average across most of Australia except some tropical northern areas; minimum temperatures have the same probability range nationwide. Unusually high maxima have over 80% probability in parts of south-west Western Australia and most of the south-east.","page_or_section":"Temperature — Summary, October–December, maximum/minimum/unusually-high bullets"},{"evidence_id":"E0694","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"livelihood_baseline","evidence_kind":"structural_context","scope_label":"Fiji agriculture · 2020 census baseline","claim_text":"The 2020 Fiji Agriculture Census records 188,768 of 246,373 agricultural household members aged 10+ participating in crop activities (76.6%). Women account for 88,034 of those 188,768 participants (46.6%). Crop-task participation is not the population identifying farming as an occupation. This is a structural baseline, not a current El Niño impact estimate.","source_title":"2020 Fiji Agriculture Census · Crop participation","publisher":"Fiji Ministry of Agriculture","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.agriculture.gov.fj/documents/census/VOLUMEI_DESCRIPTIVEANALYSISANDGENERALTABLEREPORT.pdf","page_or_section":"2020 FAC key findings, printed p. 9 / PDF page 10, agricultural household members aged 10+ and crop participation; Table 1.6(a), printed p. 48 / PDF p49, national crop row and explanatory paragraph; key findings PDF p10 for age 10+ denominator","last_checked":"22 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified against official census tables and executive summary in the source review","source_scope_note":"2020 census reference, not a current impact or forecast. Publication date not separately recorded. Denominators and source discrepancy are retained. Original ministry PDF downloaded and page visually inspected. National crop participants are 188,768, women 88,034 (46.6%); key findings state 246,373 household members aged 10+ and 76.6% crop participation. This is a 2020 baseline, not an El Niño impact estimate. Table 1.6(a), printed p48 / PDF p49, national crop row and explanatory paragraph; key findings PDF p10 for age 10+ denominator","analytical_confidence":"High for the specified tabulated baseline; no inference about current impacts or resilience."},{"evidence_id":"E0695","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"livelihood_baseline","evidence_kind":"structural_context","scope_label":"Fiji agriculture · 2020 census baseline","claim_text":"The 2020 Fiji Agriculture Census records 83,395 farmers: 71,424 men (85.6%) and 11,971 women (14.4%). This farmer-population denominator differs from crop-task participants. It is a structural baseline, not a current El Niño impact estimate.","source_title":"2020 Fiji Agriculture Census · Farmer population","publisher":"Fiji Ministry of Agriculture","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.agriculture.gov.fj/documents/census/VOLUMEI_DESCRIPTIVEANALYSISANDGENERALTABLEREPORT.pdf","page_or_section":"Table 1.12, printed p. 75 / PDF p76, Fiji total male/female/total rows; key findings printed p. 11","last_checked":"22 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified against official census tables and executive summary in the source review","source_scope_note":"2020 census reference, not a current impact or forecast. Publication date not separately recorded. Denominators and source discrepancy are retained. Original ministry PDF table visually checked. Totals are 83,395 farmers (71,424 men, 11,971 women), 49,866 unpaid family workers and 32,949 self-employed. Calculated unpaid share is 59.8%; inconsistent 59.4% narrative is not used. Denominators are distinct from crop-task participants. Table 1.12, printed p75 / PDF p76, Fiji total male/female/total rows; key findings printed p11","analytical_confidence":"High for the specified tabulated baseline; no inference about current impacts or resilience."},{"evidence_id":"E0696","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"livelihood_baseline","evidence_kind":"structural_context","scope_label":"Fiji agriculture · 2020 census baseline","claim_text":"The 2020 Fiji Agriculture Census tabulates 49,866 of 83,395 farmers as unpaid family workers (59.8%) and 32,949 as self-employed (39.5%). These are occupational categories, not a commercialisation split. The 59.8% is calculated from table counts; the source narrative reports an inconsistent 59.4%, which is not used. This is a structural baseline, not a current El Niño impact estimate.","source_title":"2020 Fiji Agriculture Census · Occupational status","publisher":"Fiji Ministry of Agriculture","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.agriculture.gov.fj/documents/census/VOLUMEI_DESCRIPTIVEANALYSISANDGENERALTABLEREPORT.pdf","page_or_section":"Table 1.12, printed p. 75 / PDF p76, Fiji total male/female/total rows; key findings printed p. 11","last_checked":"22 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified against official census tables and executive summary in the source review","source_scope_note":"2020 census reference, not a current impact or forecast. Publication date not separately recorded. Denominators and source discrepancy are retained. Original ministry PDF table visually checked. Totals are 83,395 farmers (71,424 men, 11,971 women), 49,866 unpaid family workers and 32,949 self-employed. Calculated unpaid share is 59.8%; inconsistent 59.4% narrative is not used. Denominators are distinct from crop-task participants. Table 1.12, printed p75 / PDF p76, Fiji total male/female/total rows; key findings printed p11","analytical_confidence":"High for the specified tabulated baseline; no inference about current impacts or resilience."},{"evidence_id":"E0697","profile_id":"fiji","used_for_field":"livelihood_baseline","evidence_kind":"structural_context","scope_label":"Fiji agriculture · 2020 census baseline","claim_text":"The 2020 Fiji Agriculture Census Gender Analysis Report states that women represented 12.7% of agricultural borrowers. Separately, 45.5% of female farmers did not own a mobile phone. Borrowers and female farmers are different denominators; these are separate access measures, not equivalent measures of resilience or current El Niño impacts.","source_title":"2020 Fiji Agriculture Census · Finance and phone access","publisher":"Fiji Ministry of Agriculture","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.agriculture.gov.fj/documents/census/VOLUMEIII_GENDERREPORT.pdf","page_or_section":"Executive Summary, printed p. 6 / PDF p7, finance and mobile-phone paragraphs","last_checked":"22 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified against official census tables and executive summary in the source review","source_scope_note":"2020 census reference, not a current impact or forecast. Publication date not separately recorded. Denominators and source discrepancy are retained. Original ministry PDF downloaded and page visually inspected: women are 12.7% of agricultural borrowers, and separately 45.5% of female farmers lack a mobile phone. Different denominators are preserved; this is a structural baseline. Executive Summary, printed p6 / PDF p7, finance and mobile-phone paragraphs","analytical_confidence":"High for the specified tabulated baseline; no inference about current impacts or resilience."},{"publisher":"Pacific Catastrophe Risk Insurance Company (PCRIC)","last_checked":"24 September 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Original first-party PCRIC article checked. This verifies what the insurer reports about its own payout or policy-development work; it is not independent government accounting or outcome verification.","evidence_id":"E0698","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"existing_measures","evidence_kind":"reported_finance","scope_label":"Tonga · drought anticipatory finance · ‘Eua","claim_text":"PCRIC reported delivering Tonga’s fifth drought payout of 2026 under the country’s drought coverage. It said insufficient rainfall in August 2026 triggered the payout and that the funds would support early action for ongoing drought conditions affecting ‘Eua. The article does not state the payout amount and does not document expenditure, activities completed, people reached or outcomes.","source_title":"PCRIC Delivers Fifth Drought Payout to Tonga, Highlighting the Importance of Pre-Arranged Finance Amid El Niño Season","publication_date":"2026-09-19","exact_url":"https://pcric.org/pcric-delivers-fifth-drought-payout-to-tonga-highlighting-the-importance-of-pre-arranged-finance-amid-el-nino-season/","page_or_section":"19 September 2026 article, paragraphs 1–2","source_scope_note":"First-party institutional report by the insurer and policy provider. The rainfall trigger and intended use are reported by PCRIC; the portal does not infer a payout amount or verified implementation/outcome. Exact original PCRIC HTML and publication date recovered through HTTP. Fifth payout, August rainfall trigger and intended support for Eua are explicit; amount, spending, beneficiaries and outcomes are not documented. 19 September 2026 article, paragraphs 1–2","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful reporting of PCRIC’s statement that a fifth payout was delivered and what it was intended to support; low for expenditure, reach, implementation and outcomes because those are not documented in the source."},{"publisher":"Pacific Catastrophe Risk Insurance Company (PCRIC)","last_checked":"24 September 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Original first-party PCRIC article checked. This verifies what the insurer reports about its own payout or policy-development work; it is not independent government accounting or outcome verification.","evidence_id":"E0699","profile_id":"tonga","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","evidence_kind":"planned_finance","scope_label":"Tonga · drought policy renewal","claim_text":"PCRIC reported that Tonga’s drought policy coverage was undergoing renewal for the next policy year, set to begin 1 November 2026. This is evidence of a renewal process in progress, not proof that renewal has been completed or that future coverage is active.","source_title":"PCRIC Delivers Fifth Drought Payout to Tonga, Highlighting the Importance of Pre-Arranged Finance Amid El Niño Season","publication_date":"2026-09-19","exact_url":"https://pcric.org/pcric-delivers-fifth-drought-payout-to-tonga-highlighting-the-importance-of-pre-arranged-finance-amid-el-nino-season/","page_or_section":"19 September 2026 article, paragraph 3","source_scope_note":"Forward-looking first-party status statement. Completion, policy terms and continuity after the current policy period require later confirmation. Original article states renewal was underway for a policy year beginning 1 November 2026; no completed renewal or active future coverage is inferred. 19 September 2026 article, paragraph 3","analytical_confidence":"High for the stated renewal status and intended 1 November start date; not assessed for completion, terms or future activation."},{"publisher":"Pacific Catastrophe Risk Insurance Company (PCRIC)","last_checked":"24 September 2026","evidence_grade":"B","verification_status":"Original first-party PCRIC article checked. This verifies what the insurer reports about its own payout or policy-development work; it is not independent government accounting or outcome verification.","evidence_id":"E0700","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"aa_maturity","evidence_kind":"policy_development","scope_label":"Republic of the Marshall Islands · drought finance development","claim_text":"PCRIC reported that it and the Republic of the Marshall Islands Ministry of Finance were developing drought protection suited to the country and that the work was approaching completion. It said Asian Development Bank premium-financing support created an opportunity to put protection in place, while further discussions aimed to finalise the policy. The source does not establish that a policy was finalised, active or capable of paying out by the evidence cutoff.","source_title":"Advancing Drought Protection for the Marshall Islands","publication_date":"2026-09-21","exact_url":"https://pcric.org/advancing-drought-protection-for-the-marshall-islands/","page_or_section":"21 September 2026 article, paragraphs 2–4","source_scope_note":"First-party institutional progress report. “Approaching completion” and premium-financing support are not treated as final policy activation, executed coverage or a payout. Exact original PCRIC HTML recovered. Body says development was approaching completion and further discussion aimed to finalise the policy; ADB support is described as an opportunity. No active coverage is established. 21 September 2026 article, paragraphs 2–4","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful reporting of the announced development stage and financing opportunity; low for finalisation, effective coverage, triggers or implementation because those are not documented."},{"profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Australian long-range forecast — issued 24 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-24","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","last_checked":"25 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","verification_status":"Dated official source checked; original HTML retained with SHA-256 in the release review.","source_scope_note":"October–December summary, with October-only guidance explicitly separated. Forecasts are not observed impacts; national warnings remain authoritative.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official forecast, not certainty of realization or confidence in local impact severity.","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","evidence_id":"E0701","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"October–December rainfall: above-average chances are 60% to over 80% across most of WA, SA except its south-east, southern two-thirds of NT, western/southern Queensland and north-east NSW. Below-average chances are 60–80% across much of southern/eastern Victoria, Tasmania, northern Top End and Cape York.","page_or_section":"Rainfall—Summary, October to December, bullets 1 and 3"},{"profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Australian long-range forecast — issued 24 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-24","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","last_checked":"25 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","verification_status":"Dated official source checked; original HTML retained with SHA-256 in the release review.","source_scope_note":"October–December summary, with October-only guidance explicitly separated. Forecasts are not observed impacts; national warnings remain authoritative.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official forecast, not certainty of realization or confidence in local impact severity.","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-10-31","evidence_id":"E0702","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"October alone has 60% to over 80% chances of below-average rainfall across much of NT, Queensland and south-east Australia. This monthly forecast is distinct from the three-month outlook.","page_or_section":"Rainfall—Summary, October to December, bullet 5 (October alone)"},{"profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Australian long-range forecast — issued 24 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-24","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","last_checked":"25 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","verification_status":"Dated official source checked; original HTML retained with SHA-256 in the release review.","source_scope_note":"October–December summary, with October-only guidance explicitly separated. Forecasts are not observed impacts; national warnings remain authoritative.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official forecast, not certainty of realization or confidence in local impact severity.","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","evidence_id":"E0703","used_for_field":"temperature_outlook","claim_text":"October–December minimum temperatures have over 80% chances of exceeding average across almost all Australia. Maximum temperatures have 60% to over 80% chances across most areas, except isolated tropical northern locations.","page_or_section":"Temperature—Summary, October to December, bullets 1 and 3"},{"profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Australian long-range forecast — issued 24 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-24","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","last_checked":"25 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","verification_status":"Dated official source checked; original HTML retained with SHA-256 in the release review.","source_scope_note":"Observation period differs from publication and retrieval dates. SSTs do not establish water-supply, agricultural or coral impacts.","analytical_confidence":"High for the official SST description; no inference about observed local impacts.","valid_from":"2026-09-14","valid_to":"2026-09-20","evidence_id":"E0704","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"For the week ending 20 September, coastal SSTs were mostly above average around Australia, but northern waters and the Coral Sea were near-to-cooler than average, with some northern coastal exceptions. This is an ocean observation, not evidence of local impacts.","page_or_section":"Current climate indicators, SST analysis bullet (week ending 20 September 2026)"},{"publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 22 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-24","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260922.html","last_checked":"26 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","observation_start":"2026-09-16","observation_end":"2026-09-22","verification_status":"Verified against the official weekly narrative; the exact source HTML and hash are retained.","source_scope_note":"USDM classifications are location-specific monitoring categories, not national emergency declarations or direct measurements of impacts.","analytical_confidence":"High for the official classification and reported station totals; confidence in broader local impacts remains unassessed.","evidence_id":"E0705","profile_id":"american-samoa","claim_text":"American Samoa improved from D1-S short-term moderate drought to D0-S short-term abnormal dryness in the U.S. Drought Monitor valid 22 September 2026 after two wetter weeks. Pago Pago received 5.60 inches, Siufaga Ridge 1.51 inches and Toa Ridge 1.74 inches during the week; one day was missing at Pago Pago and Toa Ridge.","page_or_section":"Pacific section, American Samoa paragraph"},{"publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 22 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-24","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260922.html","last_checked":"26 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","observation_start":"2026-09-16","observation_end":"2026-09-22","verification_status":"Verified against the official weekly narrative; the exact source HTML and hash are retained.","source_scope_note":"USDM classifications are location-specific monitoring categories, not national emergency declarations or direct measurements of impacts.","analytical_confidence":"High for the official classification and reported station totals; confidence in broader local impacts remains unassessed.","evidence_id":"E0706","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","claim_text":"Kapingamarangi deteriorated from D0-S abnormal dryness to D1-S short-term moderate drought in the U.S. Drought Monitor valid 22 September 2026. It recorded 0.02 inches for the week, with one day missing, after six weeks below the two-inch weekly threshold; the monthly total was 3.08 inches.","page_or_section":"Pacific section, Federated States of Micronesia paragraphs"},{"publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 22 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-24","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260922.html","last_checked":"26 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","observation_start":"2026-09-16","observation_end":"2026-09-22","verification_status":"Verified against the official weekly narrative; the exact source HTML and hash are retained.","source_scope_note":"USDM classifications are location-specific monitoring categories, not national emergency declarations or direct measurements of impacts.","analytical_confidence":"High for the official atoll classification and source-reported totals; it must not be generalized across the Marshall Islands.","evidence_id":"E0707","profile_id":"marshall-islands","claim_text":"Utirik remained in D0-S short-term abnormal dryness in the U.S. Drought Monitor valid 22 September 2026. It received approximately 1.75 inches during the week but remained in a precipitation deficit, with a monthly total of 4.27 inches against the narrative’s eight-inch monthly threshold. This atoll classification is not a national Marshall Islands drought classification.","page_or_section":"Pacific section, Marshall Islands paragraphs"},{"publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 22 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-24","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260922.html","last_checked":"26 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","observation_start":"2026-09-16","observation_end":"2026-09-22","verification_status":"Verified against the official weekly narrative; the exact source HTML and hash are retained.","source_scope_note":"USDM classifications are location-specific monitoring categories, not national emergency declarations or direct measurements of impacts.","analytical_confidence":"High for the official classification and reported station totals; confidence in broader local impacts remains unassessed.","evidence_id":"E0708","profile_id":"palau","claim_text":"Palau remained in D1-S short-term moderate drought in the U.S. Drought Monitor valid 22 September 2026 after another week of inadequate precipitation. Koror recorded 1.87 inches; data for WSO Palau/Airai were missing.","page_or_section":"Pacific section, Palau paragraph"},{"publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey Climate Adaptation Science Centers","source_title":"Regional Super El Niño Impacts: Hawaiʻi and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publication_date":"n.d.","exact_url":"https://www.usgs.gov/programs/climate-adaptation-science-centers/regional-super-el-nino-impacts-hawaii-and-us-affiliated","last_checked":"28 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Official USGS technical synthesis reviewed; the page does not display a publication date.","source_scope_note":"Undated technical synthesis and preparedness guidance, not a current monitoring bulletin, deterministic forecast, national warning or record of implemented action. Current conditions in the portal use newer source-dated monitoring. Full official USGS body recovered through web text; HTTP returned empty 202. Historical post-onset drought pattern and freshwater-lens risk are verified only as conditional planning context, not current drought classifications. Drought section, paragraphs 1–2; Federated States of Micronesia section","analytical_confidence":"Medium-high for the cited historical risk pathway and management option; timing and local consequences remain conditional and require current national and local monitoring.","evidence_id":"E0709","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","evidence_kind":"historical_risk_pathway","page_or_section":"Drought section, paragraphs 1–2; Federated States of Micronesia section","claim_text":"USGS summarizes a historical pattern in which Guam drought risk can be strongest in the year after El Niño onset. The portal treats early-to-mid 2027 as a preparedness horizon, not as a deterministic drought forecast or evidence of current impacts."},{"publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey Climate Adaptation Science Centers","source_title":"Regional Super El Niño Impacts: Hawaiʻi and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publication_date":"n.d.","exact_url":"https://www.usgs.gov/programs/climate-adaptation-science-centers/regional-super-el-nino-impacts-hawaii-and-us-affiliated","last_checked":"28 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Official USGS technical synthesis reviewed; the page does not display a publication date.","source_scope_note":"Undated technical synthesis and preparedness guidance, not a current monitoring bulletin, deterministic forecast, national warning or record of implemented action. Current conditions in the portal use newer source-dated monitoring. Full official USGS body recovered through web text; HTTP returned empty 202. Historical post-onset drought pattern and freshwater-lens risk are verified only as conditional planning context, not current drought classifications. Drought section, paragraphs 1–2; Federated States of Micronesia section","analytical_confidence":"Medium-high for the cited historical risk pathway and management option; timing and local consequences remain conditional and require current national and local monitoring.","evidence_id":"E0710","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","evidence_kind":"historical_risk_pathway","page_or_section":"Drought section, paragraphs 1–2; Federated States of Micronesia section","claim_text":"USGS summarizes a historical pattern in which drought risk at Saipan can be strongest in the year after El Niño onset. This supports a 2027 planning horizon but does not predict the severity or timing of drought on each Northern Mariana island."},{"publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey Climate Adaptation Science Centers","source_title":"Regional Super El Niño Impacts: Hawaiʻi and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publication_date":"n.d.","exact_url":"https://www.usgs.gov/programs/climate-adaptation-science-centers/regional-super-el-nino-impacts-hawaii-and-us-affiliated","last_checked":"28 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Official USGS technical synthesis reviewed; the page does not display a publication date.","source_scope_note":"Undated technical synthesis and preparedness guidance, not a current monitoring bulletin, deterministic forecast, national warning or record of implemented action. Current conditions in the portal use newer source-dated monitoring. Full official USGS body recovered through web text; HTTP returned empty 202. Historical post-onset drought pattern and freshwater-lens risk are verified only as conditional planning context, not current drought classifications. Drought section, paragraphs 1–2; Federated States of Micronesia section","analytical_confidence":"Medium-high for the cited historical risk pathway and management option; timing and local consequences remain conditional and require current national and local monitoring.","evidence_id":"E0711","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"likely_impacts","evidence_kind":"historical_risk_pathway","page_or_section":"Drought section, paragraphs 1–2; Federated States of Micronesia section","claim_text":"USGS summarizes a historical pattern in which the drought signal at Chuuk can be strongest in the year after El Niño onset and highlights the vulnerability of atoll freshwater lenses. This is a subnational risk pathway, not a national FSM drought classification or a current observation."},{"publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey Climate Adaptation Science Centers","source_title":"Regional Super El Niño Impacts: Hawaiʻi and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publication_date":"n.d.","exact_url":"https://www.usgs.gov/programs/climate-adaptation-science-centers/regional-super-el-nino-impacts-hawaii-and-us-affiliated","last_checked":"28 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Official USGS technical synthesis reviewed; the page does not display a publication date.","source_scope_note":"Undated technical synthesis and preparedness guidance, not a current monitoring bulletin, deterministic forecast, national warning or record of implemented action. Current conditions in the portal use newer source-dated monitoring. Official USGS management recommendations verified. The same section covers purification and invasive-species protocols; these are options, not funded or completed actions. This supports a planning recommendation, not proof that the proposed local action is funded or implemented. What Does This Mean for the Management of Natural Resources? > Pre-Storm Management Options, bullets 1–4","analytical_confidence":"Medium-high for the cited historical risk pathway and management option; timing and local consequences remain conditional and require current national and local monitoring.","evidence_id":"E0712","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"priority_actions","evidence_kind":"preparedness_guidance","page_or_section":"What Does This Mean for the Management of Natural Resources? > Pre-Storm Management Options, bullets 1–4","claim_text":"USGS recommends using basin-specific NOAA/NWS outlooks as activity guidance rather than landfall forecasts, pre-positioning water, fuel, medical supplies and water-purification capacity, and refreshing invasive-species inspection protocols for post-typhoon relief cargo. These are management options, not verified completed actions."},{"publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey Climate Adaptation Science Centers","source_title":"Regional Super El Niño Impacts: Hawaiʻi and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publication_date":"n.d.","exact_url":"https://www.usgs.gov/programs/climate-adaptation-science-centers/regional-super-el-nino-impacts-hawaii-and-us-affiliated","last_checked":"28 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Official USGS technical synthesis reviewed; the page does not display a publication date.","source_scope_note":"Undated technical synthesis and preparedness guidance, not a current monitoring bulletin, deterministic forecast, national warning or record of implemented action. Current conditions in the portal use newer source-dated monitoring. Official USGS management recommendations verified. The same section covers purification and invasive-species protocols; these are options, not funded or completed actions. This supports a planning recommendation, not proof that the proposed local action is funded or implemented. What Does This Mean for the Management of Natural Resources? > Pre-Storm Management Options, bullets 1–4","analytical_confidence":"Medium-high for the cited historical risk pathway and management option; timing and local consequences remain conditional and require current national and local monitoring.","evidence_id":"E0713","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"priority_actions","evidence_kind":"preparedness_guidance","page_or_section":"What Does This Mean for the Management of Natural Resources? > Pre-Storm Management Options, bullets 1–4","claim_text":"USGS recommends pre-positioning water, fuel, medical supplies and water-purification capacity and refreshing invasive-species inspection protocols for post-typhoon relief cargo in the Marianas. The recommendation does not establish that these measures are funded or implemented."},{"publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey Climate Adaptation Science Centers","source_title":"Regional Super El Niño Impacts: Hawaiʻi and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publication_date":"n.d.","exact_url":"https://www.usgs.gov/programs/climate-adaptation-science-centers/regional-super-el-nino-impacts-hawaii-and-us-affiliated","last_checked":"28 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Official USGS technical synthesis reviewed; the page does not display a publication date.","source_scope_note":"Undated technical synthesis and preparedness guidance, not a current monitoring bulletin, deterministic forecast, national warning or record of implemented action. Current conditions in the portal use newer source-dated monitoring. Full USGS body explicitly qualifies catchability as possible without stock-size increase and advises considering lens depletion. This supports precautionary management, not observed overfishing, stock growth or implemented measures. This supports a planning recommendation, not proof that the proposed local action is funded or implemented. Fisheries; Pre-Storm Management Options, freshwater lens bullet; Post-Storm Management Options, final bullet","analytical_confidence":"Medium-high for the cited historical risk pathway and management option; timing and local consequences remain conditional and require current national and local monitoring.","evidence_id":"E0714","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","used_for_field":"priority_actions","evidence_kind":"preparedness_guidance","page_or_section":"Fisheries; Pre-Storm Management Options, freshwater lens bullet; Post-Storm Management Options, final bullet","claim_text":"USGS recommends planning for atoll freshwater-lens depletion and notes that El Niño-related habitat compression can increase tuna catchability without increasing stock size. Monitoring fishing pressure alongside ocean conditions is therefore a precautionary management option, not evidence of observed overfishing."},{"publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey Climate Adaptation Science Centers","source_title":"Regional Super El Niño Impacts: Hawaiʻi and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publication_date":"n.d.","exact_url":"https://www.usgs.gov/programs/climate-adaptation-science-centers/regional-super-el-nino-impacts-hawaii-and-us-affiliated","last_checked":"28 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Official USGS technical synthesis reviewed; the page does not display a publication date.","source_scope_note":"Undated technical synthesis and preparedness guidance, not a current monitoring bulletin, deterministic forecast, national warning or record of implemented action. Current conditions in the portal use newer source-dated monitoring. Full USGS body explicitly qualifies catchability as possible without stock-size increase and advises considering lens depletion. This supports precautionary management, not observed overfishing, stock growth or implemented measures. This supports a planning recommendation, not proof that the proposed local action is funded or implemented. Fisheries; Pre-Storm Management Options, freshwater lens bullet; Post-Storm Management Options, final bullet","analytical_confidence":"Medium-high for the cited historical risk pathway and management option; timing and local consequences remain conditional and require current national and local monitoring.","evidence_id":"E0715","profile_id":"palau","used_for_field":"priority_actions","evidence_kind":"preparedness_guidance","page_or_section":"Fisheries; Pre-Storm Management Options, freshwater lens bullet; Post-Storm Management Options, final bullet","claim_text":"USGS notes that El Niño-related habitat compression can increase tuna catchability without increasing stock size. Monitoring catchability and fishing pressure together is a precautionary management option, not evidence that stock size has risen or that overfishing is occurring."},{"publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey Climate Adaptation Science Centers","source_title":"Regional Super El Niño Impacts: Hawaiʻi and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands","publication_date":"n.d.","exact_url":"https://www.usgs.gov/programs/climate-adaptation-science-centers/regional-super-el-nino-impacts-hawaii-and-us-affiliated","last_checked":"28 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A-","verification_status":"Official USGS technical synthesis reviewed; the page does not display a publication date.","source_scope_note":"Undated technical synthesis and preparedness guidance, not a current monitoring bulletin, deterministic forecast, national warning or record of implemented action. Current conditions in the portal use newer source-dated monitoring. Full USGS body explicitly qualifies catchability as possible without stock-size increase and advises considering lens depletion. This supports precautionary management, not observed overfishing, stock growth or implemented measures. This supports a planning recommendation, not proof that the proposed local action is funded or implemented. Fisheries; Pre-Storm Management Options, freshwater lens bullet; Post-Storm Management Options, final bullet","analytical_confidence":"Medium-high for the cited historical risk pathway and management option; timing and local consequences remain conditional and require current national and local monitoring.","evidence_id":"E0716","profile_id":"marshall-islands","used_for_field":"priority_actions","evidence_kind":"preparedness_guidance","page_or_section":"Fisheries; Pre-Storm Management Options, freshwater lens bullet; Post-Storm Management Options, final bullet","claim_text":"USGS recommends planning for atoll freshwater-lens depletion and notes that El Niño-related habitat compression can increase tuna catchability without increasing stock size. These are risk-management considerations, not current impact observations or proof of stock change."},{"publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA)","source_title":"Island Climate Update 312 — October–December 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/ICU-OND-2026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-312-october-2026","last_checked":"29 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: October–December 2026 forecast and probabilities of rainfall below the 25th percentile","verification_status":"Verified against the dated official webpage and the archived eight-page PDF; exact source bytes and SHA-256 are retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional multi-model rainfall guidance using more than 550 members from ten global climate models. It is a forecast, not an observed impact, implementation record, national warning or substitute for national meteorological services.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official regional forecast categories; forecast realization and local impact severity remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0717","profile_id":"american-samoa","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, Significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and American Samoa is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions.","forecast_category":"below"},{"publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA)","source_title":"Island Climate Update 312 — October–December 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/ICU-OND-2026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-312-october-2026","last_checked":"29 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: October–December 2026 forecast and probabilities of rainfall below the 25th percentile","verification_status":"Verified against the dated official webpage and the archived eight-page PDF; exact source bytes and SHA-256 are retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional multi-model rainfall guidance using more than 550 members from ten global climate models. It is a forecast, not an observed impact, implementation record, national warning or substitute for national meteorological services.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official regional forecast categories; forecast realization and local impact severity remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0718","profile_id":"cook-islands","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, Northern Cook Islands favour significantly above-normal rainfall, while southern Cook Islands favour significantly below-normal rainfall and are among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions.","forecast_category":"mixed"},{"publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA)","source_title":"Island Climate Update 312 — October–December 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/ICU-OND-2026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-312-october-2026","last_checked":"29 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: October–December 2026 forecast and probabilities of rainfall below the 25th percentile","verification_status":"Verified against the dated official webpage and the archived eight-page PDF; exact source bytes and SHA-256 are retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional multi-model rainfall guidance using more than 550 members from ten global climate models. It is a forecast, not an observed impact, implementation record, national warning or substitute for national meteorological services.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official regional forecast categories; forecast realization and local impact severity remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0719","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, Significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured across most of FSM, with much of FSM among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions.","forecast_category":"below"},{"publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA)","source_title":"Island Climate Update 312 — October–December 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/ICU-OND-2026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-312-october-2026","last_checked":"29 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: October–December 2026 forecast and probabilities of rainfall below the 25th percentile","verification_status":"Verified against the dated official webpage and the archived eight-page PDF; exact source bytes and SHA-256 are retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional multi-model rainfall guidance using more than 550 members from ten global climate models. It is a forecast, not an observed impact, implementation record, national warning or substitute for national meteorological services.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official regional forecast categories; forecast realization and local impact severity remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0720","profile_id":"fiji","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, Significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and Fiji is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions.","forecast_category":"below"},{"publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA)","source_title":"Island Climate Update 312 — October–December 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/ICU-OND-2026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-312-october-2026","last_checked":"29 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: October–December 2026 forecast and probabilities of rainfall below the 25th percentile","verification_status":"Verified against the dated official webpage and the archived eight-page PDF; exact source bytes and SHA-256 are retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional multi-model rainfall guidance using more than 550 members from ten global climate models. It is a forecast, not an observed impact, implementation record, national warning or substitute for national meteorological services.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official regional forecast categories; forecast realization and local impact severity remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0721","profile_id":"french-polynesia","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, The Marquesas favour significantly above-normal rainfall, while the Austral Islands, Society Islands and Tuamotu Archipelago favour significantly below-normal rainfall; the latter groups are also among locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions.","forecast_category":"mixed"},{"publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA)","source_title":"Island Climate Update 312 — October–December 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/ICU-OND-2026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-312-october-2026","last_checked":"29 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: October–December 2026 forecast and probabilities of rainfall below the 25th percentile","verification_status":"Verified against the dated official webpage and the archived eight-page PDF; exact source bytes and SHA-256 are retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional multi-model rainfall guidance using more than 550 members from ten global climate models. It is a forecast, not an observed impact, implementation record, national warning or substitute for national meteorological services.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official regional forecast categories; forecast realization and local impact severity remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0722","profile_id":"guam","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, Significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and Guam is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions.","forecast_category":"below"},{"publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA)","source_title":"Island Climate Update 312 — October–December 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/ICU-OND-2026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-312-october-2026","last_checked":"29 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: October–December 2026 forecast and probabilities of rainfall below the 25th percentile","verification_status":"Verified against the dated official webpage and the archived eight-page PDF; exact source bytes and SHA-256 are retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional multi-model rainfall guidance using more than 550 members from ten global climate models. It is a forecast, not an observed impact, implementation record, national warning or substitute for national meteorological services.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official regional forecast categories; forecast realization and local impact severity remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0723","profile_id":"kiribati","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, Significantly above-normal rainfall is favoured across the Gilbert, Phoenix and Line Islands.","forecast_category":"above"},{"publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA)","source_title":"Island Climate Update 312 — October–December 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/ICU-OND-2026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-312-october-2026","last_checked":"29 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: October–December 2026 forecast and probabilities of rainfall below the 25th percentile","verification_status":"Verified against the dated official webpage and the archived eight-page PDF; exact source bytes and SHA-256 are retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional multi-model rainfall guidance using more than 550 members from ten global climate models. It is a forecast, not an observed impact, implementation record, national warning or substitute for national meteorological services.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official regional forecast categories; forecast realization and local impact severity remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0724","profile_id":"nauru","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, Significantly above-normal rainfall is favoured for Naoero.","forecast_category":"above"},{"publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA)","source_title":"Island Climate Update 312 — October–December 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/ICU-OND-2026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-312-october-2026","last_checked":"29 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: October–December 2026 forecast and probabilities of rainfall below the 25th percentile","verification_status":"Verified against the dated official webpage and the archived eight-page PDF; exact source bytes and SHA-256 are retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional multi-model rainfall guidance using more than 550 members from ten global climate models. It is a forecast, not an observed impact, implementation record, national warning or substitute for national meteorological services.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official regional forecast categories; forecast realization and local impact severity remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0725","profile_id":"new-caledonia","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, Significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and New Caledonia is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions.","forecast_category":"below"},{"publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA)","source_title":"Island Climate Update 312 — October–December 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/ICU-OND-2026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-312-october-2026","last_checked":"29 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: October–December 2026 forecast and probabilities of rainfall below the 25th percentile","verification_status":"Verified against the dated official webpage and the archived eight-page PDF; exact source bytes and SHA-256 are retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional multi-model rainfall guidance using more than 550 members from ten global climate models. It is a forecast, not an observed impact, implementation record, national warning or substitute for national meteorological services.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official regional forecast categories; forecast realization and local impact severity remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0726","profile_id":"niue","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, Significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and Niue is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions.","forecast_category":"below"},{"publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA)","source_title":"Island Climate Update 312 — October–December 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/ICU-OND-2026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-312-october-2026","last_checked":"29 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: October–December 2026 forecast and probabilities of rainfall below the 25th percentile","verification_status":"Verified against the dated official webpage and the archived eight-page PDF; exact source bytes and SHA-256 are retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional multi-model rainfall guidance using more than 550 members from ten global climate models. It is a forecast, not an observed impact, implementation record, national warning or substitute for national meteorological services.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official regional forecast categories; forecast realization and local impact severity remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0727","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, Significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and the Northern Mariana Islands are among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions.","forecast_category":"below"},{"publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA)","source_title":"Island Climate Update 312 — October–December 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/ICU-OND-2026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-312-october-2026","last_checked":"29 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: October–December 2026 forecast and probabilities of rainfall below the 25th percentile","verification_status":"Verified against the dated official webpage and the archived eight-page PDF; exact source bytes and SHA-256 are retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional multi-model rainfall guidance using more than 550 members from ten global climate models. It is a forecast, not an observed impact, implementation record, national warning or substitute for national meteorological services.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official regional forecast categories; forecast realization and local impact severity remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0728","profile_id":"palau","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, Significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and Palau is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions.","forecast_category":"below"},{"publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA)","source_title":"Island Climate Update 312 — October–December 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/ICU-OND-2026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-312-october-2026","last_checked":"29 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: October–December 2026 forecast and probabilities of rainfall below the 25th percentile","verification_status":"Verified against the dated official webpage and the archived eight-page PDF; exact source bytes and SHA-256 are retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional multi-model rainfall guidance using more than 550 members from ten global climate models. It is a forecast, not an observed impact, implementation record, national warning or substitute for national meteorological services.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official regional forecast categories; forecast realization and local impact severity remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0729","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, Significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and Papua New Guinea is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions.","forecast_category":"below"},{"publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA)","source_title":"Island Climate Update 312 — October–December 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/ICU-OND-2026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-312-october-2026","last_checked":"29 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: October–December 2026 forecast and probabilities of rainfall below the 25th percentile","verification_status":"Verified against the dated official webpage and the archived eight-page PDF; exact source bytes and SHA-256 are retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional multi-model rainfall guidance using more than 550 members from ten global climate models. It is a forecast, not an observed impact, implementation record, national warning or substitute for national meteorological services.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official regional forecast categories; forecast realization and local impact severity remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0730","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, Significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured for Pitcairn Islands. The bulletin does not list Pitcairn among the locations with its highest chances of very dry conditions.","forecast_category":"below"},{"publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA)","source_title":"Island Climate Update 312 — October–December 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/ICU-OND-2026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-312-october-2026","last_checked":"29 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: October–December 2026 forecast and probabilities of rainfall below the 25th percentile","verification_status":"Verified against the dated official webpage and the archived eight-page PDF; exact source bytes and SHA-256 are retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional multi-model rainfall guidance using more than 550 members from ten global climate models. It is a forecast, not an observed impact, implementation record, national warning or substitute for national meteorological services.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official regional forecast categories; forecast realization and local impact severity remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0731","profile_id":"marshall-islands","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, Significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured across most of the Marshall Islands, with much of the country among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions.","forecast_category":"below"},{"publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA)","source_title":"Island Climate Update 312 — October–December 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/ICU-OND-2026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-312-october-2026","last_checked":"29 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: October–December 2026 forecast and probabilities of rainfall below the 25th percentile","verification_status":"Verified against the dated official webpage and the archived eight-page PDF; exact source bytes and SHA-256 are retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional multi-model rainfall guidance using more than 550 members from ten global climate models. It is a forecast, not an observed impact, implementation record, national warning or substitute for national meteorological services.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official regional forecast categories; forecast realization and local impact severity remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0732","profile_id":"samoa","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, Significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and Samoa is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions.","forecast_category":"below"},{"publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA)","source_title":"Island Climate Update 312 — October–December 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/ICU-OND-2026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-312-october-2026","last_checked":"29 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: October–December 2026 forecast and probabilities of rainfall below the 25th percentile","verification_status":"Verified against the dated official webpage and the archived eight-page PDF; exact source bytes and SHA-256 are retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional multi-model rainfall guidance using more than 550 members from ten global climate models. It is a forecast, not an observed impact, implementation record, national warning or substitute for national meteorological services.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official regional forecast categories; forecast realization and local impact severity remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0733","profile_id":"solomon-islands","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, Significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and Solomon Islands is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions.","forecast_category":"below"},{"publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA)","source_title":"Island Climate Update 312 — October–December 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/ICU-OND-2026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-312-october-2026","last_checked":"29 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: October–December 2026 forecast and probabilities of rainfall below the 25th percentile","verification_status":"Verified against the dated official webpage and the archived eight-page PDF; exact source bytes and SHA-256 are retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional multi-model rainfall guidance using more than 550 members from ten global climate models. It is a forecast, not an observed impact, implementation record, national warning or substitute for national meteorological services.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official regional forecast categories; forecast realization and local impact severity remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0734","profile_id":"tokelau","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, Significantly above-normal rainfall is favoured for Tokelau.","forecast_category":"above"},{"publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA)","source_title":"Island Climate Update 312 — October–December 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/ICU-OND-2026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-312-october-2026","last_checked":"29 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: October–December 2026 forecast and probabilities of rainfall below the 25th percentile","verification_status":"Verified against the dated official webpage and the archived eight-page PDF; exact source bytes and SHA-256 are retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional multi-model rainfall guidance using more than 550 members from ten global climate models. It is a forecast, not an observed impact, implementation record, national warning or substitute for national meteorological services.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official regional forecast categories; forecast realization and local impact severity remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0735","profile_id":"tonga","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, Significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and Tonga is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions.","forecast_category":"below"},{"publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA)","source_title":"Island Climate Update 312 — October–December 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/ICU-OND-2026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-312-october-2026","last_checked":"29 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: October–December 2026 forecast and probabilities of rainfall below the 25th percentile","verification_status":"Verified against the dated official webpage and the archived eight-page PDF; exact source bytes and SHA-256 are retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional multi-model rainfall guidance using more than 550 members from ten global climate models. It is a forecast, not an observed impact, implementation record, national warning or substitute for national meteorological services.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official regional forecast categories; forecast realization and local impact severity remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0736","profile_id":"tuvalu","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, Northern Tuvalu favours significantly above-normal rainfall, while southern Tuvalu favours significantly below-normal rainfall and is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions.","forecast_category":"mixed"},{"publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA)","source_title":"Island Climate Update 312 — October–December 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/ICU-OND-2026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-312-october-2026","last_checked":"29 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: October–December 2026 forecast and probabilities of rainfall below the 25th percentile","verification_status":"Verified against the dated official webpage and the archived eight-page PDF; exact source bytes and SHA-256 are retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional multi-model rainfall guidance using more than 550 members from ten global climate models. It is a forecast, not an observed impact, implementation record, national warning or substitute for national meteorological services.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official regional forecast categories; forecast realization and local impact severity remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0737","profile_id":"vanuatu","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, Significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and Vanuatu is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions.","forecast_category":"below"},{"publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA)","source_title":"Island Climate Update 312 — October–December 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-17","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/ICU-OND-2026.pdf","source_page_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-312-october-2026","last_checked":"29 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: October–December 2026 forecast and probabilities of rainfall below the 25th percentile","verification_status":"Verified against the dated official webpage and the archived eight-page PDF; exact source bytes and SHA-256 are retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional multi-model rainfall guidance using more than 550 members from ten global climate models. It is a forecast, not an observed impact, implementation record, national warning or substitute for national meteorological services.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official regional forecast categories; forecast realization and local impact severity remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0738","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, Significantly below-normal rainfall is favoured, and Wallis and Futuna is among the locations with the highest chances of very dry conditions.","forecast_category":"below"},{"profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Southern Hemisphere Monitoring — issued 29 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-29","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/","last_checked":"30 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified against dated primary-source HTML; original bytes and SHA-256 archived.","analytical_confidence":"High for transcription of dated official observations; local impacts are not inferred.","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","source_scope_note":"Dated 29 September overview only. Older sections on this rolling page excluded. These observations do not measure local impacts or replace national warnings.","evidence_id":"E0739","claim_text":"Weekly relative Niño3.4 was +2.72°C for the week ending 27 September 2026.","page_or_section":"29 September 2026 overview, bullet 2","observation_end":"2026-09-27"},{"profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Southern Hemisphere Monitoring — issued 29 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-29","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/","last_checked":"30 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified against dated primary-source HTML; original bytes and SHA-256 archived.","analytical_confidence":"High for transcription of dated official observations; local impacts are not inferred.","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","source_scope_note":"Dated 29 September overview only. Older sections on this rolling page excluded. These observations do not measure local impacts or replace national warnings.","evidence_id":"E0740","claim_text":"The 30-day SOI through 27 September 2026 was −20.5.","page_or_section":"29 September 2026 overview, bullet 4","observation_end":"2026-09-27"},{"profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Southern Hemisphere Monitoring — issued 29 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-29","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/","last_checked":"30 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified against dated primary-source HTML; original bytes and SHA-256 archived.","analytical_confidence":"High for transcription of dated official observations; local impacts are not inferred.","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","source_scope_note":"Dated 29 September overview only. Older sections on this rolling page excluded. These observations do not measure local impacts or replace national warnings.","evidence_id":"E0741","claim_text":"IOD remained neutral. Its weekly index on 27 September was +0.76°C, the third consecutive week above +0.4°C; sustained exceedance is needed to establish a positive event.","page_or_section":"29 September 2026 overview, bullet 7","observation_end":"2026-09-27"},{"profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Southern Hemisphere Monitoring — issued 29 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-29","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/","last_checked":"30 September 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified against dated primary-source HTML; original bytes and SHA-256 archived.","analytical_confidence":"High for transcription of dated official observations; local impacts are not inferred.","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","source_scope_note":"Dated 29 September overview only. Older sections on this rolling page excluded. These observations do not measure local impacts or replace national warnings.","evidence_id":"E0742","claim_text":"SSTs for the week ending 26 September were up to 3°C above average around western, southern and south-eastern Australia, but more than 1°C below average in some northern and north-eastern waters.","page_or_section":"29 September 2026 overview, bullet 9","observation_end":"2026-09-26"},{"profile_id":"palau","publisher":"Pacific Community (SPC)","source_title":"Emergency response capacity in Palau boosted through fire hydrant network upgrade as El Niño approaches","publication_date":"2026-09-16","exact_url":"https://spc.global.ssl.fastly.net/updates/news/media-release/2026/09/emergency-response-capacity-in-palau-boosted-through-fire","canonical_source_url":"https://www.spc.int/updates/news/media-release/2026/09/emergency-response-capacity-in-palau-boosted-through-fire","last_checked":"1 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified official SPC release on its public CDN; canonical publisher URL returned HTTP 403. Original HTML and SHA-256 archived.","analytical_confidence":"High for the reported project scope and funding; completion, operational performance and avoided losses not established.","evidence_kind":"reported_action","used_for_field":"readiness","source_scope_note":"Koror project only. Publisher page dated 16 September, release dateline 10 September and groundbreaking reported on 4 September 2026. Project investment is not an open funding opportunity.","evidence_id":"E0743","claim_text":"SPC reports a Koror hydrant upgrade launched on 4 September: seven replacements, seven additional units and water-line improvements. Completion is not verified.","page_or_section":"Opening paragraphs 1–4, including the reported groundbreaking date"},{"profile_id":"palau","publisher":"Pacific Community (SPC)","source_title":"Emergency response capacity in Palau boosted through fire hydrant network upgrade as El Niño approaches","publication_date":"2026-09-16","exact_url":"https://spc.global.ssl.fastly.net/updates/news/media-release/2026/09/emergency-response-capacity-in-palau-boosted-through-fire","canonical_source_url":"https://www.spc.int/updates/news/media-release/2026/09/emergency-response-capacity-in-palau-boosted-through-fire","last_checked":"1 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified official SPC release on its public CDN; canonical publisher URL returned HTTP 403. Original HTML and SHA-256 archived.","analytical_confidence":"High for the reported project scope and funding; completion, operational performance and avoided losses not established.","evidence_kind":"reported_action","used_for_field":"readiness","source_scope_note":"Koror project only. Publisher page dated 16 September, release dateline 10 September and groundbreaking reported on 4 September 2026. Project investment is not an open funding opportunity.","evidence_id":"E0744","claim_text":"SPC reports USD 235,000 invested in the Koror project, funded by the EU through BSRP II and implemented by SPC.","page_or_section":"Opening paragraphs 2–3: funding, implementing agency and project investment"},{"evidence_id":"E0745","profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Australian long-range forecast — issued 1 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-01","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","last_checked":"2 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"October–December rainfall favours wetter conditions across most of western Australia, extending into parts of Queensland and NSW. Drier conditions have 60–80% chances in southern/eastern Victoria, Tasmania, northern Top End and Cape York. Much of eastern Australia has roughly equal wet/dry chances.","page_or_section":"Rainfall—Summary, October to December, bullets 2, 3 and 6","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","verification_status":"Verified primary official source; original document and SHA-256 retained in the dated source review.","source_scope_note":"Forecast period, issue date and retrieval date are separate. Earlier seasonal assessments and national warnings remain authoritative in their own scope.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful reporting of the official forecast; this is not certainty of realization or an assessment of local impacts."},{"evidence_id":"E0746","profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Australian long-range forecast — issued 1 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-01","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","last_checked":"2 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"October alone has a broader dry signal in north-east Australia and a less pronounced western wet signal than the three-month forecast.","page_or_section":"Rainfall—Summary, October to December, October-only bullet 5","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-10-31","verification_status":"Verified primary official source; original document and SHA-256 retained in the dated source review.","source_scope_note":"Forecast period, issue date and retrieval date are separate. Earlier seasonal assessments and national warnings remain authoritative in their own scope.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful reporting of the official forecast; this is not certainty of realization or an assessment of local impacts."},{"evidence_id":"E0747","profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Australian long-range forecast — issued 1 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-01","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","last_checked":"2 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"temperature_outlook","claim_text":"October–December: above-average minimum temperatures have over 80% chances across almost all Australia. Above-average maximum temperatures have 60% to over 80% chances across most areas, excluding some isolated tropical northern locations.","page_or_section":"Temperature—Summary, October to December, bullets 1 and 3","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","verification_status":"Verified primary official source; original document and SHA-256 retained in the dated source review.","source_scope_note":"Forecast period, issue date and retrieval date are separate. Earlier seasonal assessments and national warnings remain authoritative in their own scope.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful reporting of the official forecast; this is not certainty of realization or an assessment of local impacts."},{"evidence_id":"E0748","profile_id":"marshall-islands","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 29 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-01","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260929.html","last_checked":"2 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"Utirik’s D0 abnormal-dryness classification was removed after 3.22 inches of weekly rainfall. Majuro received 1.50 inches and Mili 0.58 inches. This change concerns Utirik, not all Marshall Islands atolls.","page_or_section":"Pacific section, Marshall Islands paragraph","valid_from":"2026-09-29","valid_to":"2026-09-29","verification_status":"Verified primary official source; original document and SHA-256 retained in the dated source review.","source_scope_note":"Location-specific USDM monitoring, valid 29 September and released 1 October. Weekly totals follow the narrative; no national emergency declaration or impact assessment is inferred.","analytical_confidence":"High for the reported local monitoring classification and station totals; broader impacts and nationwide status are not inferred.","observation_start":"2026-09-23","observation_end":"2026-09-29"},{"evidence_id":"E0749","profile_id":"palau","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 29 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-01","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260929.html","last_checked":"2 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"Palau remained at D1 moderate drought. Palau IAP recorded 1.46 inches of weekly rainfall; no precipitation report was supplied for Koror.","page_or_section":"Pacific section, Palau paragraph","valid_from":"2026-09-29","valid_to":"2026-09-29","verification_status":"Verified primary official source; original document and SHA-256 retained in the dated source review.","source_scope_note":"Location-specific USDM monitoring, valid 29 September and released 1 October. Weekly totals follow the narrative; no national emergency declaration or impact assessment is inferred.","analytical_confidence":"High for the reported local monitoring classification and station totals; broader impacts and nationwide status are not inferred.","observation_start":"2026-09-23","observation_end":"2026-09-29"},{"evidence_id":"E0750","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 29 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-01","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260929.html","last_checked":"2 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"Kapingamarangi remained at D1 moderate drought, with 0.02 inches of weekly rainfall. Chuuk, Pohnpei, Ulithi, Woleai and Yap each exceeded 3 inches.","page_or_section":"Pacific section, Federated States of Micronesia paragraph","valid_from":"2026-09-29","valid_to":"2026-09-29","verification_status":"Verified primary official source; original document and SHA-256 retained in the dated source review.","source_scope_note":"Location-specific USDM monitoring, valid 29 September and released 1 October. Weekly totals follow the narrative; no national emergency declaration or impact assessment is inferred.","analytical_confidence":"High for the reported local monitoring classification and station totals; broader impacts and nationwide status are not inferred.","observation_start":"2026-09-23","observation_end":"2026-09-29"},{"evidence_id":"E0751","profile_id":"american-samoa","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 29 September 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-01","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260929.html","last_checked":"2 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"American Samoa remained at D0 abnormal dryness. Weekly rainfall totals were 0.94 inches at Pago Pago, 4.48 at Siufaga Ridge and 2.22 at Toa Ridge.","page_or_section":"Pacific section, American Samoa paragraph","valid_from":"2026-09-29","valid_to":"2026-09-29","verification_status":"Verified primary official source; original document and SHA-256 retained in the dated source review.","source_scope_note":"Location-specific USDM monitoring, valid 29 September and released 1 October. Weekly totals follow the narrative; no national emergency declaration or impact assessment is inferred.","analytical_confidence":"High for the reported local monitoring classification and station totals; broader impacts and nationwide status are not inferred.","observation_start":"2026-09-23","observation_end":"2026-09-29"},{"evidence_id":"E0752","profile_id":"fiji","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological Service","source_title":"Fiji Climate Outlook — October 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-30","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_Climate_Outlook_October_2026.pdf","last_checked":"2 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"October rainfall is forecast below normal across Fiji’s four divisions and Rotuma.","page_or_section":"PDF page 3: division and Rotuma rainfall-category list","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-10-31","verification_status":"Verified primary official source; original document and SHA-256 retained in the dated source review.","source_scope_note":"Forecast period, issue date and retrieval date are separate. Earlier seasonal assessments and national warnings remain authoritative in their own scope.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful reporting of the official forecast; this is not certainty of realization or an assessment of local impacts."},{"evidence_id":"E0753","profile_id":"fiji","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological Service","source_title":"Fiji Climate Outlook — October 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-30","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_Climate_Outlook_October_2026.pdf","last_checked":"2 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"October–December rainfall is forecast below normal across Fiji’s four divisions and Rotuma.","page_or_section":"PDF page 4: division and Rotuma rainfall-category list","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","verification_status":"Verified primary official source; original document and SHA-256 retained in the dated source review.","source_scope_note":"Forecast period, issue date and retrieval date are separate. Earlier seasonal assessments and national warnings remain authoritative in their own scope.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful reporting of the official forecast; this is not certainty of realization or an assessment of local impacts."},{"evidence_id":"E0754","profile_id":"fiji","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological Service","source_title":"Fiji Climate Outlook — October 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-30","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_Climate_Outlook_October_2026.pdf","last_checked":"2 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"spatial_temporal_note","claim_text":"January–March 2027 rainfall is forecast below normal across Fiji’s four divisions and Rotuma.","page_or_section":"PDF page 5: division and Rotuma rainfall-category list","valid_from":"2027-01-01","valid_to":"2027-03-31","verification_status":"Verified primary official source; original document and SHA-256 retained in the dated source review.","source_scope_note":"Forecast period, issue date and retrieval date are separate. Earlier seasonal assessments and national warnings remain authoritative in their own scope.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful reporting of the official forecast; this is not certainty of realization or an assessment of local impacts."},{"evidence_id":"E0755","profile_id":"fiji","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological Service","source_title":"Fiji Climate Outlook — October 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-30","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_Climate_Outlook_October_2026.pdf","last_checked":"2 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"temperature_outlook","claim_text":"October maximum and minimum temperatures are forecast below normal across Fiji and Rotuma.","page_or_section":"PDF page 6: October maximum/minimum temperature captions","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-10-31","verification_status":"Verified primary official source; original document and SHA-256 retained in the dated source review.","source_scope_note":"Forecast period, issue date and retrieval date are separate. Earlier seasonal assessments and national warnings remain authoritative in their own scope.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful reporting of the official forecast; this is not certainty of realization or an assessment of local impacts."},{"evidence_id":"E0756","profile_id":"fiji","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological Service","source_title":"Fiji Climate Outlook — October 2026","publication_date":"2026-09-30","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_Climate_Outlook_October_2026.pdf","last_checked":"2 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"temperature_outlook","claim_text":"October–December maxima favour above-normal temperatures in Western Division, near-normal in Central/Northern Divisions and Rotuma, and below-normal in Eastern Division. Minima favour below-normal temperatures across Fiji, but above-normal in Rotuma.","page_or_section":"PDF page 6: October–December maximum/minimum temperature captions","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","verification_status":"Verified primary official source; original document and SHA-256 retained in the dated source review.","source_scope_note":"Forecast period, issue date and retrieval date are separate. Earlier seasonal assessments and national warnings remain authoritative in their own scope.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful reporting of the official forecast; this is not certainty of realization or an assessment of local impacts."},{"evidence_id":"E0757","profile_id":"nauru","publisher":"Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch for NMHS in the Western Pacific Islands Region — October week 1, issue 1","publication_date":"2026-10-01","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-01-10-2026-issue1.pdf","last_checked":"6 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"near_term_watch","claim_text":"SPREP gives Nauru a very high chance of Very Wet conditions for 3–16 October.","page_or_section":"PDF page 3, Extreme rainfall and temperature outlook","valid_from":"2026-10-03","valid_to":"2026-10-16","verification_status":"Verified primary regional climate-service source; all seven original PDF pages were visually reviewed and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Pre-operational regional guidance for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. It is not a national warning, an observed-impact report, or evidence that the forecast outcome occurred. National services decide whether to issue local advisories.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the regional watch; confidence in local realization and impacts is not assessed by this record."},{"evidence_id":"E0758","profile_id":"kiribati","publisher":"Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch for NMHS in the Western Pacific Islands Region — October week 1, issue 1","publication_date":"2026-10-01","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-01-10-2026-issue1.pdf","last_checked":"6 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"near_term_watch","claim_text":"For 3–16 October, SPREP gives a very high chance of Very Wet conditions across Kiribati except the southern Line Islands, with more than +75 mm forecast for the southern Gilbert, Phoenix and northern Line Islands. It also flags temperature anomalies above +1.5°C in the north-east Phoenix and north/central Line Islands, strong marine heatwave conditions in parts of the eastern Phoenix and Line Islands, and coral-bleaching alert status in the Phoenix and Line Islands. The temperature watch for the eastern Gilbert Islands and marine-heatwave watch for the Gilbert and western Phoenix Islands were cancelled.","page_or_section":"PDF pages 3 and 5, Extreme rainfall/temperature and Marine heatwave/coral bleaching","valid_from":"2026-10-03","valid_to":"2026-10-16","verification_status":"Verified primary regional climate-service source; all seven original PDF pages were visually reviewed and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Pre-operational regional guidance for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. It is not a national warning, an observed-impact report, or evidence that the forecast outcome occurred. National services decide whether to issue local advisories.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the regional watch; confidence in local realization and impacts is not assessed by this record."},{"evidence_id":"E0759","profile_id":"tuvalu","publisher":"Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch for NMHS in the Western Pacific Islands Region — October week 1, issue 1","publication_date":"2026-10-01","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-01-10-2026-issue1.pdf","last_checked":"6 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"near_term_watch","claim_text":"SPREP gives northern Tuvalu a very high chance of Very Wet conditions and more than +75 mm for 3–16 October. The earlier marine-heatwave watch for north-eastern Tuvalu was cancelled.","page_or_section":"PDF pages 3 and 5, Extreme rainfall and Marine heatwave","valid_from":"2026-10-03","valid_to":"2026-10-16","verification_status":"Verified primary regional climate-service source; all seven original PDF pages were visually reviewed and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Pre-operational regional guidance for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. It is not a national warning, an observed-impact report, or evidence that the forecast outcome occurred. National services decide whether to issue local advisories.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the regional watch; confidence in local realization and impacts is not assessed by this record."},{"evidence_id":"E0760","profile_id":"tokelau","publisher":"Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch for NMHS in the Western Pacific Islands Region — October week 1, issue 1","publication_date":"2026-10-01","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-01-10-2026-issue1.pdf","last_checked":"6 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"near_term_watch","claim_text":"SPREP gives northern Tokelau a very high chance of Very Wet conditions and more than +75 mm for 3–16 October. Strong marine-heatwave conditions are forecast in eastern Tokelau, while the watch for western Tokelau was cancelled.","page_or_section":"PDF pages 3 and 5, Extreme rainfall and Marine heatwave","valid_from":"2026-10-03","valid_to":"2026-10-16","verification_status":"Verified primary regional climate-service source; all seven original PDF pages were visually reviewed and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Pre-operational regional guidance for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. It is not a national warning, an observed-impact report, or evidence that the forecast outcome occurred. National services decide whether to issue local advisories.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the regional watch; confidence in local realization and impacts is not assessed by this record."},{"evidence_id":"E0761","profile_id":"cook-islands","publisher":"Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch for NMHS in the Western Pacific Islands Region — October week 1, issue 1","publication_date":"2026-10-01","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-01-10-2026-issue1.pdf","last_checked":"6 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"near_term_watch","claim_text":"For 3–16 October, SPREP gives the northernmost Cook Islands a very high chance of Very Wet conditions, more than +75 mm, and maximum/minimum temperature anomalies above +1.5°C. Strong marine-heatwave conditions and coral-bleaching alert status apply to the northern Cook Islands; the coral alert for the southern Cook Islands was cancelled.","page_or_section":"PDF pages 3 and 5, Extreme rainfall/temperature and Marine heatwave/coral bleaching","valid_from":"2026-10-03","valid_to":"2026-10-16","verification_status":"Verified primary regional climate-service source; all seven original PDF pages were visually reviewed and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Pre-operational regional guidance for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. It is not a national warning, an observed-impact report, or evidence that the forecast outcome occurred. National services decide whether to issue local advisories.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the regional watch; confidence in local realization and impacts is not assessed by this record."},{"evidence_id":"E0762","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","publisher":"Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch for NMHS in the Western Pacific Islands Region — October week 1, issue 1","publication_date":"2026-10-01","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-01-10-2026-issue1.pdf","last_checked":"6 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"near_term_watch","claim_text":"The rainfall watch for south-eastern CNMI was cancelled for 3–16 October. SPREP identifies increased tropical-cyclone occurrence risk near CNMI for 5–11 October and coral-bleaching alert status for CNMI.","page_or_section":"PDF pages 3–5, Rainfall, Tropical cyclone and Coral bleaching","valid_from":"2026-10-03","valid_to":"2026-10-16","verification_status":"Verified primary regional climate-service source; all seven original PDF pages were visually reviewed and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Pre-operational regional guidance for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. It is not a national warning, an observed-impact report, or evidence that the forecast outcome occurred. National services decide whether to issue local advisories.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the regional watch; confidence in local realization and impacts is not assessed by this record."},{"evidence_id":"E0763","profile_id":"guam","publisher":"Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch for NMHS in the Western Pacific Islands Region — October week 1, issue 1","publication_date":"2026-10-01","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-01-10-2026-issue1.pdf","last_checked":"6 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"near_term_watch","claim_text":"SPREP cancelled the rainfall watch for Guam for 3–16 October and the tropical-cyclone occurrence watch for 5–11 October.","page_or_section":"PDF page 3, rainfall watch cancellation — guam; PDF page 4, tropical-cyclone watch cancellation — guam","valid_from":"2026-10-03","valid_to":"2026-10-16","verification_status":"Verified primary regional climate-service source; all seven original PDF pages were visually reviewed and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Pre-operational regional guidance for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. It is not a national warning, an observed-impact report, or evidence that the forecast outcome occurred. National services decide whether to issue local advisories.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the regional watch; confidence in local realization and impacts is not assessed by this record."},{"evidence_id":"E0764","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","publisher":"Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch for NMHS in the Western Pacific Islands Region — October week 1, issue 1","publication_date":"2026-10-01","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-01-10-2026-issue1.pdf","last_checked":"6 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"near_term_watch","claim_text":"SPREP cancelled the rainfall watch for northern FSM, including Yap and Chuuk, for 3–16 October, and cancelled the tropical-cyclone occurrence watch for northern FSM, including Yap, Pohnpei and Chuuk, for 5–11 October.","page_or_section":"PDF page 3, rainfall watch cancellation — federated-states-of-micronesia; PDF page 4, tropical-cyclone watch cancellation — federated-states-of-micronesia","valid_from":"2026-10-03","valid_to":"2026-10-16","verification_status":"Verified primary regional climate-service source; all seven original PDF pages were visually reviewed and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Pre-operational regional guidance for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. It is not a national warning, an observed-impact report, or evidence that the forecast outcome occurred. National services decide whether to issue local advisories.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the regional watch; confidence in local realization and impacts is not assessed by this record."},{"evidence_id":"E0765","profile_id":"marshall-islands","publisher":"Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch for NMHS in the Western Pacific Islands Region — October week 1, issue 1","publication_date":"2026-10-01","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-01-10-2026-issue1.pdf","last_checked":"6 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"near_term_watch","claim_text":"SPREP cancelled the rainfall watch for northern Marshall Islands for 3–16 October, identifies increased tropical-cyclone occurrence risk near northern Marshall Islands for 5–11 October, and lists coral-bleaching alert status for the Marshall Islands. The earlier marine-heatwave watch for eastern Marshall Islands was cancelled.","page_or_section":"PDF pages 3–5, Rainfall, Tropical cyclone and Marine heatwave/coral bleaching","valid_from":"2026-10-03","valid_to":"2026-10-16","verification_status":"Verified primary regional climate-service source; all seven original PDF pages were visually reviewed and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Pre-operational regional guidance for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. It is not a national warning, an observed-impact report, or evidence that the forecast outcome occurred. National services decide whether to issue local advisories.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the regional watch; confidence in local realization and impacts is not assessed by this record."},{"evidence_id":"E0766","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","publisher":"Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch for NMHS in the Western Pacific Islands Region — October week 1, issue 1","publication_date":"2026-10-01","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-01-10-2026-issue1.pdf","last_checked":"6 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"near_term_watch","claim_text":"SPREP cancelled the earlier extreme-temperature watch for the Papua New Guinea Highlands for 3–16 October.","page_or_section":"PDF page 3, extreme-temperature watch cancellations","valid_from":"2026-10-03","valid_to":"2026-10-16","verification_status":"Verified primary regional climate-service source; all seven original PDF pages were visually reviewed and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Pre-operational regional guidance for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. It is not a national warning, an observed-impact report, or evidence that the forecast outcome occurred. National services decide whether to issue local advisories.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the regional watch; confidence in local realization and impacts is not assessed by this record."},{"evidence_id":"E0767","profile_id":"french-polynesia","publisher":"Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch for NMHS in the Western Pacific Islands Region — October week 1, issue 1","publication_date":"2026-10-01","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-01-10-2026-issue1.pdf","last_checked":"6 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"near_term_watch","claim_text":"SPREP forecasts maximum and minimum temperature anomalies above +1.5°C and strong marine-heatwave conditions for the Marquesas Islands for 3–16 October.","page_or_section":"PDF page 3, extreme temperature advisory — french-polynesia; PDF page 5, marine-heatwave advisory — french-polynesia","valid_from":"2026-10-03","valid_to":"2026-10-16","verification_status":"Verified primary regional climate-service source; all seven original PDF pages were visually reviewed and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Pre-operational regional guidance for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. It is not a national warning, an observed-impact report, or evidence that the forecast outcome occurred. National services decide whether to issue local advisories.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the regional watch; confidence in local realization and impacts is not assessed by this record."},{"evidence_id":"E0768","profile_id":"palau","publisher":"Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch for NMHS in the Western Pacific Islands Region — October week 1, issue 1","publication_date":"2026-10-01","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-01-10-2026-issue1.pdf","last_checked":"6 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"near_term_watch","claim_text":"SPREP cancelled the tropical-cyclone occurrence watch for northern Palau for 5–11 October.","page_or_section":"PDF page 4, tropical-cyclone watch cancellation — palau","valid_from":"2026-10-03","valid_to":"2026-10-16","verification_status":"Verified primary regional climate-service source; all seven original PDF pages were visually reviewed and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Pre-operational regional guidance for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. It is not a national warning, an observed-impact report, or evidence that the forecast outcome occurred. National services decide whether to issue local advisories.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the regional watch; confidence in local realization and impacts is not assessed by this record."},{"evidence_id":"E0769","profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Long-range forecast: October to December 2026 — recent conditions transcript","publication_date":"2026-10-02","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/video/long-range-forecast-october-to-december-2026","last_checked":"6 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_temperature","claim_text":"September 2026 was warmer than average across most of Australia and was Australia’s second warmest September on record.","page_or_section":"Transcript, lines 89–92: recent temperature conditions","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-09-30","observation_start":"2026-09-01","observation_end":"2026-09-30","verification_status":"Verified primary official source; the dated transcript and SHA-256 are retained in the source review.","source_scope_note":"Australian national and subnational observations for September 2026. The record does not attribute these conditions or reported fires to El Niño and does not replace emergency or fire-agency information.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful reporting of the Bureau transcript; causal attribution and local impacts are not inferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0770","profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Long-range forecast: October to December 2026 — recent conditions transcript","publication_date":"2026-10-02","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/video/long-range-forecast-october-to-december-2026","last_checked":"6 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_rainfall_fire_context","claim_text":"The Murray–Darling Basin had its second driest September on record. The Bureau says warm and dry conditions led to elevated fire-danger ratings in many parts of Australia; it separately notes recent bushfires in parts of Queensland and New South Wales without attributing them to El Niño.","page_or_section":"Transcript, lines 93–98: rainfall and fire-weather context","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-09-30","observation_start":"2026-09-01","observation_end":"2026-09-30","verification_status":"Verified primary official source; the dated transcript and SHA-256 are retained in the source review.","source_scope_note":"Australian national and subnational observations for September 2026. The record does not attribute these conditions or reported fires to El Niño and does not replace emergency or fire-agency information.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful reporting of the Bureau transcript; causal attribution and local impacts are not inferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0771","profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Long-range forecast: October to December 2026 — recent conditions transcript","publication_date":"2026-10-02","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/video/long-range-forecast-october-to-december-2026","last_checked":"6 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_hydrology","claim_text":"Root-zone soil moisture decreased in many areas during September and was drier than average across much of south-western and eastern Australia. Late-September streamflow was below average across the south-west, south-east and parts of north-east New South Wales. Northern Murray–Darling Basin storages were 55% full, a 27% decrease over the year; southern basin storages were 72% full after good winter inflows.","page_or_section":"Transcript, lines 100–106: soil moisture, streamflow and storages","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-09-30","observation_start":"2026-09-01","observation_end":"2026-09-30","verification_status":"Verified primary official source; the dated transcript and SHA-256 are retained in the source review.","source_scope_note":"Australian national and subnational observations for September 2026. The record does not attribute these conditions or reported fires to El Niño and does not replace emergency or fire-agency information.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful reporting of the Bureau transcript; causal attribution and local impacts are not inferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0772","profile_id":"fiji","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services","source_title":"Climate Outlook for Hydro-electricity Generation — October to December 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-01","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Climate_Outlook_for_Hydro-electricity_Generation_October_2026_Final.pdf","last_checked":"7 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_hydropower_rainfall","claim_text":"At Monasavu, September rainfall was 124 mm (43% of the WMO 30-year normal), in the below-average category. The July–September total was 576 mm (79% of normal), also below normal, while April–September rainfall was 1,907 mm (109% of normal), classified as near normal. These are rainfall observations, not reservoir-storage or electricity-output measurements.","page_or_section":"PDF page 1: Monasavu monthly, three-month and six-month rainfall paragraph","valid_from":"2026-04-01","valid_to":"2026-09-30","verification_status":"Verified primary official climate-service source; all four original PDF pages were rendered and reviewed, and the original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Sector-specific advisory for Energy Fiji Limited. It reports climate observations and forecasts for hydropower planning; it does not establish reservoir level, electricity-generation impact, service disruption, emergency status or an action taken by EFL. The PDF is dated 1 October and was listed on the source page on 5 October.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official values and the bulletin's stated forecast confidence; forecast realization, operational consequences and causal attribution are not inferred.","observation_start":"2026-04-01","observation_end":"2026-09-30"},{"evidence_id":"E0773","profile_id":"fiji","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services","source_title":"Climate Outlook for Hydro-electricity Generation — October to December 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-01","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Climate_Outlook_for_Hydro-electricity_Generation_October_2026_Final.pdf","last_checked":"7 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_hydropower","claim_text":"For October 2026, the hydropower outlook gives a 75% chance of at least 50 mm at Nadarivatu station, 53 mm at Nadarivatu and Monasavu Dams, and 58 mm at Wailoa. The source labels forecast confidence high and expects drier conditions during the 3–16 and 10–23 October fortnights.","page_or_section":"PDF page 2: Table 1, October outlook; PDF page 1: fortnightly rainfall predictions","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-10-31","verification_status":"Verified primary official climate-service source; all four original PDF pages were rendered and reviewed, and the original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Sector-specific advisory for Energy Fiji Limited. It reports climate observations and forecasts for hydropower planning; it does not establish reservoir level, electricity-generation impact, service disruption, emergency status or an action taken by EFL. The PDF is dated 1 October and was listed on the source page on 5 October.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official values and the bulletin's stated forecast confidence; forecast realization, operational consequences and causal attribution are not inferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0774","profile_id":"fiji","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services","source_title":"Climate Outlook for Hydro-electricity Generation — October to December 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-01","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Climate_Outlook_for_Hydro-electricity_Generation_October_2026_Final.pdf","last_checked":"7 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_hydropower","claim_text":"For October–December 2026, the hydropower outlook gives a 75% chance of at least 274 mm at Nadarivatu station, 294 mm at Nadarivatu and Monasavu Dams, and 321 mm at Wailoa. It labels confidence high and summarizes that dry conditions are expected to persist. These values are exceedance thresholds, not expected totals or confirmed water-supply impacts.","page_or_section":"PDF page 2: Table 1, October–December outlook; PDF page 1: Summary","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","verification_status":"Verified primary official climate-service source; all four original PDF pages were rendered and reviewed, and the original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Sector-specific advisory for Energy Fiji Limited. It reports climate observations and forecasts for hydropower planning; it does not establish reservoir level, electricity-generation impact, service disruption, emergency status or an action taken by EFL. The PDF is dated 1 October and was listed on the source page on 5 October.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official values and the bulletin's stated forecast confidence; forecast realization, operational consequences and causal attribution are not inferred."},{"profile_id":"","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / NCEP","source_title":"ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions — 5 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-05","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf","last_checked":"7 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official NOAA CPC monitoring source; all 33 original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional tropical-Pacific monitoring and model guidance. Weekly relative SST departures are not the three-month RONI. Atmospheric and ocean anomalies do not establish a country impact. The 5 October CFSv2 model update does not replace the official probabilistic ENSO outlook issued 10 September.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official values and source statements; local impacts, attribution, forecast realization and national warning status are not inferred.","evidence_id":"E0775","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"enso_weekly_sst_monitoring","claim_text":"NOAA CPC's 5 October weekly update lists relative SST departures of +0.1°C in Niño 4, +2.3°C in Niño 3.4, +3.3°C in Niño 3 and +4.5°C in Niño 1+2. These weekly OISST-based departures are monitoring values, not the three-month RONI and not local impact measurements.","page_or_section":"PDF page 5: latest weekly values and Relative SST Anomalies panel title; PDF page 19: RONI definition, ERSSTv6 and separate weekly OISSTv2.1 note","valid_from":"2026-10-05","valid_to":"2026-10-05"},{"profile_id":"","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / NCEP","source_title":"ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions — 5 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-05","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf","last_checked":"7 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official NOAA CPC monitoring source; all 33 original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional tropical-Pacific monitoring and model guidance. Weekly relative SST departures are not the three-month RONI. Atmospheric and ocean anomalies do not establish a country impact. The 5 October CFSv2 model update does not replace the official probabilistic ENSO outlook issued 10 September.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official values and source statements; local impacts, attribution, forecast realization and national warning status are not inferred.","evidence_id":"E0776","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"enso_roni_monitoring","claim_text":"NOAA CPC reports the July–September 2026 Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) at +1.7°C. RONI is a three-month relative Niño 3.4 measure based on ERSSTv6; it should not be compared directly with the latest weekly +2.3°C Niño 3.4 departure.","page_or_section":"PDF page 19: RONI definition, ERSSTv6 and separate weekly OISSTv2.1 note; PDF page 21: most recent RONI value","valid_from":"2026-07-01","valid_to":"2026-09-30"},{"profile_id":"","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / NCEP","source_title":"ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions — 5 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-05","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf","last_checked":"7 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official NOAA CPC monitoring source; all 33 original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional tropical-Pacific monitoring and model guidance. Weekly relative SST departures are not the three-month RONI. Atmospheric and ocean anomalies do not establish a country impact. The 5 October CFSv2 model update does not replace the official probabilistic ENSO outlook issued 10 September.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official values and source statements; local impacts, attribution, forecast realization and national warning status are not inferred.","evidence_id":"E0777","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"enso_atmospheric_monitoring","claim_text":"In its stated 30-day monitoring products, NOAA CPC shows enhanced convection and precipitation along the equator from near the Date Line into the eastern Pacific, with suppressed convection and precipitation over the Philippines, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. Westerly low-level wind anomalies extended from the western to east-central equatorial Pacific. This is a broad atmospheric anomaly pattern, not a Papua New Guinea rainfall or impact assessment.","page_or_section":"PDF page 13: convection/precipitation and low-level wind narrative","valid_from":"2026-08-27","valid_to":"2026-10-02"},{"profile_id":"","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / NCEP","source_title":"ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions — 5 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-05","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf","last_checked":"7 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official NOAA CPC monitoring source; all 33 original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional tropical-Pacific monitoring and model guidance. Weekly relative SST departures are not the three-month RONI. Atmospheric and ocean anomalies do not establish a country impact. The 5 October CFSv2 model update does not replace the official probabilistic ENSO outlook issued 10 September.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official values and source statements; local impacts, attribution, forecast realization and national warning status are not inferred.","evidence_id":"E0778","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"enso_subsurface_monitoring","claim_text":"NOAA CPC reports that positive equatorial upper-ocean heat anomalies have remained broadly steady since late July. Above-average subsurface temperatures persisted east of the Date Line during the latest two months, while negative anomalies strengthened west of the Date Line.","page_or_section":"PDF page 11: upper-ocean anomaly evolution paragraph; PDF page 12: two-month subsurface temperature narrative; PDF page 15: current east/west subsurface anomaly narrative","valid_from":"2026-08-01","valid_to":"2026-10-05"},{"profile_id":"","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / NCEP","source_title":"ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions — 5 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-05","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf","last_checked":"7 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official NOAA CPC monitoring source; all 33 original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Regional tropical-Pacific monitoring and model guidance. Weekly relative SST departures are not the three-month RONI. Atmospheric and ocean anomalies do not establish a country impact. Model outlook is verified. The sentence about retaining the September official outlook is portal workflow text and is outdated. 5 October model guidance only.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the official values and source statements; local impacts, attribution, forecast realization and national warning status are not inferred.","evidence_id":"E0779","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"enso_model_guidance","claim_text":"The NCEP CFSv2 ensemble mean issued 5 October favoured El Niño continuing through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026–27. This is model guidance; the portal retains NOAA's separate official probabilistic ENSO outlook, which is issued through its monthly discussion.","page_or_section":"PDF page 26: CFSv2 ensemble-mean outlook issued 5 October","valid_from":"2026-10-05","valid_to":"2027-02-28"},{"evidence_id":"E0780","profile_id":"american-samoa","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / NCEP","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 8 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_oct2026/ensodisc.pdf","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA's 8 October official monthly discussion says El Niño continued to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong event likely through January–March 2027 (greater than an 83% chance). September monthly relative SST indices reached +2.1°C in Niño 3.4, +3.0°C in Niño 3 and +3.9°C in Niño 1+2, while anomalies exceeded +4.0°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. This basin-wide status is not a country-impact assessment.","page_or_section":"PDF page 1, official synopsis and diagnostic discussion","valid_from":"2026-10-08","valid_to":"2027-03-31","verification_status":"Verified primary official NOAA CPC/NCEP monthly ENSO discussion; all eight original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Basin-wide ENSO status and official probabilities. These records do not establish country-level rainfall, impacts, causal attribution or national warning status.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of NOAA's official status, observations and probability tables; local realization and impacts are not inferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0781","profile_id":"australia","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / NCEP","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 8 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_oct2026/ensodisc.pdf","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA's 8 October official monthly discussion says El Niño continued to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong event likely through January–March 2027 (greater than an 83% chance). September monthly relative SST indices reached +2.1°C in Niño 3.4, +3.0°C in Niño 3 and +3.9°C in Niño 1+2, while anomalies exceeded +4.0°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. This basin-wide status is not a country-impact assessment.","page_or_section":"PDF page 1, official synopsis and diagnostic discussion","valid_from":"2026-10-08","valid_to":"2027-03-31","verification_status":"Verified primary official NOAA CPC/NCEP monthly ENSO discussion; all eight original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Basin-wide ENSO status and official probabilities. These records do not establish country-level rainfall, impacts, causal attribution or national warning status.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of NOAA's official status, observations and probability tables; local realization and impacts are not inferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0782","profile_id":"cook-islands","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / NCEP","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 8 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_oct2026/ensodisc.pdf","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA's 8 October official monthly discussion says El Niño continued to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong event likely through January–March 2027 (greater than an 83% chance). September monthly relative SST indices reached +2.1°C in Niño 3.4, +3.0°C in Niño 3 and +3.9°C in Niño 1+2, while anomalies exceeded +4.0°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. This basin-wide status is not a country-impact assessment.","page_or_section":"PDF page 1, official synopsis and diagnostic discussion","valid_from":"2026-10-08","valid_to":"2027-03-31","verification_status":"Verified primary official NOAA CPC/NCEP monthly ENSO discussion; all eight original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Basin-wide ENSO status and official probabilities. These records do not establish country-level rainfall, impacts, causal attribution or national warning status.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of NOAA's official status, observations and probability tables; local realization and impacts are not inferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0783","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / NCEP","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 8 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_oct2026/ensodisc.pdf","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA's 8 October official monthly discussion says El Niño continued to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong event likely through January–March 2027 (greater than an 83% chance). September monthly relative SST indices reached +2.1°C in Niño 3.4, +3.0°C in Niño 3 and +3.9°C in Niño 1+2, while anomalies exceeded +4.0°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. This basin-wide status is not a country-impact assessment.","page_or_section":"PDF page 1, official synopsis and diagnostic discussion","valid_from":"2026-10-08","valid_to":"2027-03-31","verification_status":"Verified primary official NOAA CPC/NCEP monthly ENSO discussion; all eight original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Basin-wide ENSO status and official probabilities. These records do not establish country-level rainfall, impacts, causal attribution or national warning status.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of NOAA's official status, observations and probability tables; local realization and impacts are not inferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0784","profile_id":"fiji","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / NCEP","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 8 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_oct2026/ensodisc.pdf","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA's 8 October official monthly discussion says El Niño continued to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong event likely through January–March 2027 (greater than an 83% chance). September monthly relative SST indices reached +2.1°C in Niño 3.4, +3.0°C in Niño 3 and +3.9°C in Niño 1+2, while anomalies exceeded +4.0°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. This basin-wide status is not a country-impact assessment.","page_or_section":"PDF page 1, official synopsis and diagnostic discussion","valid_from":"2026-10-08","valid_to":"2027-03-31","verification_status":"Verified primary official NOAA CPC/NCEP monthly ENSO discussion; all eight original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Basin-wide ENSO status and official probabilities. These records do not establish country-level rainfall, impacts, causal attribution or national warning status.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of NOAA's official status, observations and probability tables; local realization and impacts are not inferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0785","profile_id":"french-polynesia","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / NCEP","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 8 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_oct2026/ensodisc.pdf","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA's 8 October official monthly discussion says El Niño continued to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong event likely through January–March 2027 (greater than an 83% chance). September monthly relative SST indices reached +2.1°C in Niño 3.4, +3.0°C in Niño 3 and +3.9°C in Niño 1+2, while anomalies exceeded +4.0°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. This basin-wide status is not a country-impact assessment.","page_or_section":"PDF page 1, official synopsis and diagnostic discussion","valid_from":"2026-10-08","valid_to":"2027-03-31","verification_status":"Verified primary official NOAA CPC/NCEP monthly ENSO discussion; all eight original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Basin-wide ENSO status and official probabilities. These records do not establish country-level rainfall, impacts, causal attribution or national warning status.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of NOAA's official status, observations and probability tables; local realization and impacts are not inferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0786","profile_id":"guam","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / NCEP","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 8 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_oct2026/ensodisc.pdf","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA's 8 October official monthly discussion says El Niño continued to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong event likely through January–March 2027 (greater than an 83% chance). 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September monthly relative SST indices reached +2.1°C in Niño 3.4, +3.0°C in Niño 3 and +3.9°C in Niño 1+2, while anomalies exceeded +4.0°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. This basin-wide status is not a country-impact assessment.","page_or_section":"PDF page 1, official synopsis and diagnostic discussion","valid_from":"2026-10-08","valid_to":"2027-03-31","verification_status":"Verified primary official NOAA CPC/NCEP monthly ENSO discussion; all eight original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Basin-wide ENSO status and official probabilities. These records do not establish country-level rainfall, impacts, causal attribution or national warning status.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of NOAA's official status, observations and probability tables; local realization and impacts are not inferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0795","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / NCEP","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 8 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_oct2026/ensodisc.pdf","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA's 8 October official monthly discussion says El Niño continued to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong event likely through January–March 2027 (greater than an 83% chance). September monthly relative SST indices reached +2.1°C in Niño 3.4, +3.0°C in Niño 3 and +3.9°C in Niño 1+2, while anomalies exceeded +4.0°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. This basin-wide status is not a country-impact assessment.","page_or_section":"PDF page 1, official synopsis and diagnostic discussion","valid_from":"2026-10-08","valid_to":"2027-03-31","verification_status":"Verified primary official NOAA CPC/NCEP monthly ENSO discussion; all eight original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Basin-wide ENSO status and official probabilities. 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These records do not establish country-level rainfall, impacts, causal attribution or national warning status.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of NOAA's official status, observations and probability tables; local realization and impacts are not inferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0803","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / NCEP","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 8 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_oct2026/ensodisc.pdf","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"enso_status","claim_text":"NOAA's 8 October official monthly discussion says El Niño continued to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong event likely through January–March 2027 (greater than an 83% chance). 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These records do not establish country-level rainfall, impacts, causal attribution or national warning status.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of NOAA's official status, observations and probability tables; local realization and impacts are not inferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0804","profile_id":"","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / NCEP","source_title":"Official NOAA CPC ENSO probabilities — October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/probabilities/","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"enso_phase_probabilities","claim_text":"NOAA's October official table assigns a 100% El Niño probability for September–November through December–February, 98% for February–April, 85% for March–May, 45% for April–June and 17% for May–July. A displayed 0% is approximate rather than literal certainty.","page_or_section":"Official probability table, issued October 2026","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2027-07-31","verification_status":"Verified primary official NOAA CPC probability table associated with the 8 October diagnostic discussion; exact HTML capture and SHA-256 retained.","source_scope_note":"Basin-wide ENSO status and official probabilities. These records do not establish country-level rainfall, impacts, causal attribution or national warning status.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of NOAA's official status, observations and probability tables; local realization and impacts are not inferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0805","profile_id":"","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / NCEP","source_title":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 8 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_oct2026/ensodisc.pdf","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"enso_strength_probabilities","claim_text":"NOAA reports a 54% chance that the three-month RONI reaches at least +2.5°C in September–November, 83% in October–December and 70% in November–January. Its separate strength table gives a 100% chance of the very-strong category (RONI at least +2.0°C) for September–November and October–December, 96% for November–January, 81% for December–February and 46% for January–March. Event strength does not guarantee impact strength.","page_or_section":"PDF page 1: historic-event probability paragraph; PDF page 8: Figure 8, strength-category bars and legend","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2027-03-31","verification_status":"Verified primary official NOAA CPC/NCEP monthly ENSO discussion; all eight original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Basin-wide ENSO status and official probabilities. These records do not establish country-level rainfall, impacts, causal attribution or national warning status.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of NOAA's official status, observations and probability tables; local realization and impacts are not inferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0806","profile_id":"nauru","publisher":"Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch for NMHS in the Western Pacific Islands Region — October week 2, issue 1","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-08-10-2026-issue1.pdf","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"near_term_watch","claim_text":"SPREP gives Nauru a very high chance of Very Wet conditions for 10–23 October. The regional watch remains in place.","page_or_section":"PDF page 3, Extreme rainfall and temperature advisory","valid_from":"2026-10-10","valid_to":"2026-10-23","verification_status":"Verified primary official SPREP/Bureau regional climate-service source; all seven original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Pre-operational regional guidance for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. It is not a national warning, an observed-impact report or evidence that the forecast occurred; national services decide whether to issue local advisories.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the regional watch; confidence in local realization and impacts is not assessed by this record."},{"evidence_id":"E0807","profile_id":"kiribati","publisher":"Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch for NMHS in the Western Pacific Islands Region — October week 2, issue 1","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-08-10-2026-issue1.pdf","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"near_term_watch","claim_text":"For 10–23 October, SPREP gives the Gilbert, Phoenix and Line Islands a very high chance of Very Wet conditions and forecasts more than +75 mm over most of those island groups. It also forecasts temperature anomalies above +1.5°C in the northern Phoenix and north/central Line Islands, strong marine-heatwave conditions in northern Phoenix and Line Islands, and a coral-bleaching alert for Phoenix and Line Islands.","page_or_section":"PDF pages 3 and 5, rainfall, temperature, marine heatwave and coral bleaching","valid_from":"2026-10-10","valid_to":"2026-10-23","verification_status":"Verified primary official SPREP/Bureau regional climate-service source; all seven original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Pre-operational regional guidance for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. It is not a national warning, an observed-impact report or evidence that the forecast occurred; national services decide whether to issue local advisories.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the regional watch; confidence in local realization and impacts is not assessed by this record."},{"evidence_id":"E0808","profile_id":"tuvalu","publisher":"Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch for NMHS in the Western Pacific Islands Region — October week 2, issue 1","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-08-10-2026-issue1.pdf","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"near_term_watch","claim_text":"SPREP gives northern Tuvalu a very high chance of Very Wet conditions and forecasts more than +75 mm for 10–23 October. The regional watch remains in place.","page_or_section":"PDF page 3, Extreme rainfall advisory","valid_from":"2026-10-10","valid_to":"2026-10-23","verification_status":"Verified primary official SPREP/Bureau regional climate-service source; all seven original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Pre-operational regional guidance for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. It is not a national warning, an observed-impact report or evidence that the forecast occurred; national services decide whether to issue local advisories.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the regional watch; confidence in local realization and impacts is not assessed by this record."},{"evidence_id":"E0809","profile_id":"tokelau","publisher":"Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch for NMHS in the Western Pacific Islands Region — October week 2, issue 1","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-08-10-2026-issue1.pdf","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"near_term_watch","claim_text":"SPREP gives northern Tokelau a very high chance of Very Wet conditions and forecasts more than +75 mm for 10–23 October. The earlier marine-heatwave watch for Tokelau is cancelled.","page_or_section":"PDF pages 3 and 5, rainfall and marine heatwave","valid_from":"2026-10-10","valid_to":"2026-10-23","verification_status":"Verified primary official SPREP/Bureau regional climate-service source; all seven original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Pre-operational regional guidance for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. It is not a national warning, an observed-impact report or evidence that the forecast occurred; national services decide whether to issue local advisories.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the regional watch; confidence in local realization and impacts is not assessed by this record."},{"evidence_id":"E0810","profile_id":"cook-islands","publisher":"Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch for NMHS in the Western Pacific Islands Region — October week 2, issue 1","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-08-10-2026-issue1.pdf","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"near_term_watch","claim_text":"For 10–23 October, SPREP gives the northern Cook Islands a very high chance of Very Wet conditions, more than +75 mm and, in the northernmost islands, temperature anomalies above +1.5°C. It also forecasts strong marine-heatwave conditions and maintains a coral-bleaching alert for the northern Cook Islands.","page_or_section":"PDF pages 3 and 5, rainfall, temperature, marine heatwave and coral bleaching","valid_from":"2026-10-10","valid_to":"2026-10-23","verification_status":"Verified primary official SPREP/Bureau regional climate-service source; all seven original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Pre-operational regional guidance for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. It is not a national warning, an observed-impact report or evidence that the forecast occurred; national services decide whether to issue local advisories.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the regional watch; confidence in local realization and impacts is not assessed by this record."},{"evidence_id":"E0811","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","publisher":"Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch for NMHS in the Western Pacific Islands Region — October week 2, issue 1","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-08-10-2026-issue1.pdf","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"near_term_watch","claim_text":"SPREP forecasts maximum and minimum temperature anomalies above +1.5°C across most of mainland Papua New Guinea for 10–23 October.","page_or_section":"PDF page 3, extreme temperature advisory — papua-new-guinea","valid_from":"2026-10-10","valid_to":"2026-10-23","verification_status":"Verified primary official SPREP/Bureau regional climate-service source; all seven original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Pre-operational regional guidance for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. It is not a national warning, an observed-impact report or evidence that the forecast occurred; national services decide whether to issue local advisories.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the regional watch; confidence in local realization and impacts is not assessed by this record."},{"evidence_id":"E0812","profile_id":"french-polynesia","publisher":"Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch for NMHS in the Western Pacific Islands Region — October week 2, issue 1","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-08-10-2026-issue1.pdf","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"near_term_watch","claim_text":"SPREP forecasts temperature anomalies above +1.5°C and strong marine-heatwave conditions for the Marquesas Islands for 10–23 October.","page_or_section":"PDF page 3, extreme temperature advisory — french-polynesia; PDF page 5, marine-heatwave advisory — french-polynesia","valid_from":"2026-10-10","valid_to":"2026-10-23","verification_status":"Verified primary official SPREP/Bureau regional climate-service source; all seven original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Pre-operational regional guidance for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. It is not a national warning, an observed-impact report or evidence that the forecast occurred; national services decide whether to issue local advisories.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the regional watch; confidence in local realization and impacts is not assessed by this record."},{"evidence_id":"E0813","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","publisher":"Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch for NMHS in the Western Pacific Islands Region — October week 2, issue 1","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-08-10-2026-issue1.pdf","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"near_term_watch","claim_text":"SPREP identifies increased tropical-cyclone occurrence risk near CNMI for 12–18 October and cancels the previous coral-bleaching watch for CNMI.","page_or_section":"PDF pages 4–5, tropical cyclone and coral bleaching","valid_from":"2026-10-12","valid_to":"2026-10-18","verification_status":"Verified primary official SPREP/Bureau regional climate-service source; all seven original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Pre-operational regional guidance for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. It is not a national warning, an observed-impact report or evidence that the forecast occurred; national services decide whether to issue local advisories.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the regional watch; confidence in local realization and impacts is not assessed by this record."},{"evidence_id":"E0814","profile_id":"marshall-islands","publisher":"Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)","source_title":"Regional Climate Watch for NMHS in the Western Pacific Islands Region — October week 2, issue 1","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-08-10-2026-issue1.pdf","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"near_term_watch","claim_text":"SPREP cancels the northern Marshall Islands tropical-cyclone watch for 12–18 October. It separately forecasts localized strong marine-heatwave conditions in eastern and northern RMI and maintains a coral-bleaching alert for northern RMI for 10–23 October.","page_or_section":"PDF page 4, tropical-cyclone watch cancellation; PDF page 5, marine-heatwave advisory — marshall-islands; PDF page 5, coral-bleaching alert — marshall-islands","valid_from":"2026-10-10","valid_to":"2026-10-23","verification_status":"Verified primary official SPREP/Bureau regional climate-service source; all seven original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Pre-operational regional guidance for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. It is not a national warning, an observed-impact report or evidence that the forecast occurred; national services decide whether to issue local advisories.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the regional watch; confidence in local realization and impacts is not assessed by this record."},{"evidence_id":"E0815","profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Australian climate outlook for November to February — issued 8 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook","claim_text":"For November–January, the Bureau forecasts a 60% to greater than 80% chance of above-average rainfall across much of southern and central Western Australia, southern Northern Territory, western and northern South Australia, inland southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. Below-average rainfall is likely (60–80%) for most of Tasmania and parts of Victoria, the Top End and Gulf coast, northern Queensland and north-west coastal Western Australia; other northern and south-eastern areas are generally mixed.","page_or_section":"Long-range forecast issued 8 October, Rainfall—Summary, November to January","valid_from":"2026-11-01","valid_to":"2027-01-31","verification_status":"Verified primary official Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecast issued 8 October; exact HTML capture and SHA-256 retained.","source_scope_note":"Australian long-range forecast. It does not establish observed outcomes, attribute future conditions solely to El Niño or replace weather, fire or emergency warnings.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the Bureau probabilities and geographic scope; forecast realization and local impacts are not inferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0816","profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Australian climate outlook for November to February — issued 8 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"maximum_temperature_outlook","claim_text":"For November–January, maximum temperatures are likely to be above average across Australia (60% to greater than 80%). The chance of unusually high maximum temperatures exceeds 50% across much of Australia and exceeds 80% in parts of eastern New South Wales, far eastern Victoria, eastern Tasmania and far northern Cape York Peninsula.","page_or_section":"Long-range forecast issued 8 October, Temperature—Summary, maximum temperature","valid_from":"2026-11-01","valid_to":"2027-01-31","verification_status":"Verified primary official Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecast issued 8 October; exact HTML capture and SHA-256 retained.","source_scope_note":"Australian long-range forecast. It does not establish observed outcomes, attribute future conditions solely to El Niño or replace weather, fire or emergency warnings.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the Bureau probabilities and geographic scope; forecast realization and local impacts are not inferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0817","profile_id":"australia","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","source_title":"Australian climate outlook for November to February — issued 8 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"minimum_temperature_outlook","claim_text":"For November–January, minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80%) to be above average across almost all of Australia. The chance of unusually high minimum temperatures exceeds 80% across much of the country, more than four times the normal likelihood.","page_or_section":"Long-range forecast issued 8 October, Temperature—Summary, minimum temperature","valid_from":"2026-11-01","valid_to":"2027-01-31","verification_status":"Verified primary official Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecast issued 8 October; exact HTML capture and SHA-256 retained.","source_scope_note":"Australian long-range forecast. It does not establish observed outcomes, attribute future conditions solely to El Niño or replace weather, fire or emergency warnings.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the Bureau probabilities and geographic scope; forecast realization and local impacts are not inferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0818","profile_id":"fiji","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services","source_title":"Fiji Climate Summary — September 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-07","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_Climate_Summary_September_2026.pdf","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_rainfall","claim_text":"Fiji Met reports that September was predominantly dry: of 24 stations available for the bulletin, 12 recorded below-average rainfall and 11 well-below-average rainfall; Labasa Airfield alone recorded above-average rainfall. Several stations in the Western Division received less than half their normal monthly rainfall. These are September observations, not the October forecast.","page_or_section":"PDF pages 1–2, In Brief and Rainfall; Table 2 on page 4","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-09-30","verification_status":"Verified primary official Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services climate summary; all 12 PDF pages and the 12 documentary photographs on pages 10–11 were visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Official monthly climate summary. Impact and response passages synthesize reports credited to Fiji Sun, FijiVillage, The Fiji Times, FBC News and NDRMO; they are not a national disaster declaration, exhaustive needs assessment or independently verified incident count.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of station observations and the official narrative; medium for completeness of localized impacts and actions because the bulletin synthesizes selected reported accounts.","observation_start":"2026-09-01","observation_end":"2026-09-30"},{"evidence_id":"E0819","profile_id":"fiji","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services","source_title":"Fiji Climate Summary — September 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-07","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_Climate_Summary_September_2026.pdf","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"reported_impact","used_for_field":"reported_dry_spell_impacts","claim_text":"Fiji Met reports dry-spell impacts in the Western, Northern and Eastern Divisions, including declining vegetable production and income in Korotari, serious water shortages for 19 families in Vunivacea after a borehole dried, livestock losses in the Northern Division, agricultural pressure and fire risk in western areas, declining creeks and water levels around Rakiraki and Nadi, and increased diarrhoea cases on Batiki. The portal preserves the bulletin's attribution and does not extrapolate these localized reports nationally.","page_or_section":"PDF page 10, Dry Spell narrative; documentary figures 12a–12f on page 10 and 12g–12l on page 11","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-09-30","verification_status":"Verified primary official Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services climate summary; all 12 PDF pages and the 12 documentary photographs on pages 10–11 were visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Official monthly climate summary. Impact and response passages synthesize reports credited to Fiji Sun, FijiVillage, The Fiji Times, FBC News and NDRMO; they are not a national disaster declaration, exhaustive needs assessment or independently verified incident count.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of station observations and the official narrative; medium for completeness of localized impacts and actions because the bulletin synthesizes selected reported accounts.","observation_start":"2026-09-01","observation_end":"2026-09-30"},{"evidence_id":"E0820","profile_id":"fiji","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services","source_title":"Fiji Climate Summary — September 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-07","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_Climate_Summary_September_2026.pdf","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"reported_action","used_for_field":"reported_water_response","claim_text":"Fiji Met reports that multiple maritime communities requested emergency water carting and that government officials carried out water carting on Batiki Island and Vatulele during September. This documents reported response activity, not the volume delivered, population reached, adequacy or outcome.","page_or_section":"PDF page 10, Dry Spell narrative; page 11, figures 12g and 12l","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-09-30","verification_status":"Verified primary official Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services climate summary; all 12 PDF pages and the 12 documentary photographs on pages 10–11 were visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Official monthly climate summary. Impact and response passages synthesize reports credited to Fiji Sun, FijiVillage, The Fiji Times, FBC News and NDRMO; they are not a national disaster declaration, exhaustive needs assessment or independently verified incident count.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of station observations and the official narrative; medium for completeness of localized impacts and actions because the bulletin synthesizes selected reported accounts.","observation_start":"2026-09-01","observation_end":"2026-09-30"},{"evidence_id":"E0821","profile_id":"fiji","publisher":"Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services","source_title":"Fiji Climate Summary — September 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-07","exact_url":"https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_Climate_Summary_September_2026.pdf","last_checked":"8 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_ocean_conditions","claim_text":"Fiji Met reports below-normal sea-surface-temperature anomalies in Fiji waters and above-normal sea-level anomalies across the Fiji Group during September. The bulletin does not provide a country-wide impact measure from these anomalies.","page_or_section":"PDF pages 1 and 9, Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Level sections","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-09-30","verification_status":"Verified primary official Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services climate summary; all 12 PDF pages and the 12 documentary photographs on pages 10–11 were visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Official monthly climate summary. Impact and response passages synthesize reports credited to Fiji Sun, FijiVillage, The Fiji Times, FBC News and NDRMO; they are not a national disaster declaration, exhaustive needs assessment or independently verified incident count.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of station observations and the official narrative; medium for completeness of localized impacts and actions because the bulletin synthesizes selected reported accounts.","observation_start":"2026-09-01","observation_end":"2026-09-30"},{"evidence_id":"E0822","profile_id":"guam","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 6 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20261006.html","last_checked":"9 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"Guam remained dryness and drought-free. The monitored Guam station received 6.23 inches during the week; Dededo received 7.41 inches over seven days. Weekly and monthly minimum water requirements were met.","page_or_section":"Pacific section, Guam and CNMI paragraph","valid_from":"2026-10-06","valid_to":"2026-10-06","observation_start":"2026-09-30","observation_end":"2026-10-06","verification_status":"Verified primary official U.S. Drought Monitor weekly narrative; exact HTML and SHA-256 retained in the dated source review.","source_scope_note":"Location-specific U.S. Drought Monitor classifications valid 6 October and released 8 October. They are not national disaster or emergency declarations, impact assessments or evidence that all locations within a country share the same condition.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful reporting of the official local classifications and station rainfall totals; nationwide conditions, impacts, causation and recovery are not inferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0823","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 6 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20261006.html","last_checked":"9 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"The Northern Mariana Islands remained dryness and drought-free. Saipan International Airport received 5.87 inches over five days, Rota Airport 5.47 inches and Tinian 4.50 inches over five days. Weekly and monthly minimum water requirements were met.","page_or_section":"Pacific section, Guam and CNMI paragraph","valid_from":"2026-10-06","valid_to":"2026-10-06","observation_start":"2026-09-30","observation_end":"2026-10-06","verification_status":"Verified primary official U.S. Drought Monitor weekly narrative; exact HTML and SHA-256 retained in the dated source review.","source_scope_note":"Location-specific U.S. Drought Monitor classifications valid 6 October and released 8 October. They are not national disaster or emergency declarations, impact assessments or evidence that all locations within a country share the same condition.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful reporting of the official local classifications and station rainfall totals; nationwide conditions, impacts, causation and recovery are not inferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0824","profile_id":"palau","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 6 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20261006.html","last_checked":"9 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"Palau improved from D1-S moderate short-term drought to D0-S short-term abnormal dryness after WSO Palau at Airai received 5.92 inches and Koror received 5.01 inches over six days.","page_or_section":"Pacific section, Republic of Palau paragraph","valid_from":"2026-10-06","valid_to":"2026-10-06","observation_start":"2026-09-30","observation_end":"2026-10-06","verification_status":"Verified primary official U.S. Drought Monitor weekly narrative; exact HTML and SHA-256 retained in the dated source review.","source_scope_note":"Location-specific U.S. Drought Monitor classifications valid 6 October and released 8 October. They are not national disaster or emergency declarations, impact assessments or evidence that all locations within a country share the same condition.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful reporting of the official local classifications and station rainfall totals; nationwide conditions, impacts, causation and recovery are not inferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0825","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 6 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20261006.html","last_checked":"9 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"Kapingamarangi received 2.75 inches over six days and remained D1-S moderate short-term drought. No monitored station designation changed within FSM; this Kapingamarangi classification is not a nationwide FSM classification.","page_or_section":"Pacific section, Federated States of Micronesia paragraph","valid_from":"2026-10-06","valid_to":"2026-10-06","observation_start":"2026-09-30","observation_end":"2026-10-06","verification_status":"Verified primary official U.S. Drought Monitor weekly narrative; exact HTML and SHA-256 retained in the dated source review.","source_scope_note":"Location-specific U.S. Drought Monitor classifications valid 6 October and released 8 October. They are not national disaster or emergency declarations, impact assessments or evidence that all locations within a country share the same condition.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful reporting of the official local classifications and station rainfall totals; nationwide conditions, impacts, causation and recovery are not inferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0826","profile_id":"marshall-islands","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 6 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20261006.html","last_checked":"9 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"All monitored Marshall Islands drought designations remained dryness and drought-free. Majuro received 4.66 inches, Mili 2.97 inches over three days and Kwajalein 2.21 inches; Jaluit, Utirik, Wotje and Ailinglaplap were below the weekly minimum rainfall requirement.","page_or_section":"Pacific section, Republic of the Marshall Islands paragraph","valid_from":"2026-10-06","valid_to":"2026-10-06","observation_start":"2026-09-30","observation_end":"2026-10-06","verification_status":"Verified primary official U.S. Drought Monitor weekly narrative; exact HTML and SHA-256 retained in the dated source review.","source_scope_note":"Location-specific U.S. Drought Monitor classifications valid 6 October and released 8 October. They are not national disaster or emergency declarations, impact assessments or evidence that all locations within a country share the same condition.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful reporting of the official local classifications and station rainfall totals; nationwide conditions, impacts, causation and recovery are not inferred."},{"evidence_id":"E0827","profile_id":"american-samoa","publisher":"National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA","source_title":"U.S. Drought Monitor Narrative — valid 6 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20261006.html","last_checked":"9 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"observed_conditions","claim_text":"Tutuila retained D0-S short-term abnormal dryness. Weekly rainfall ranged from 0.40 inch at Toa Ridge to 0.50 inch at Siufaga Ridge, with 0.44 inch over six days at Pago Pago Airport; this is a Tutuila monitoring classification, not a territory-wide emergency declaration.","page_or_section":"Pacific section, American Samoa paragraph","valid_from":"2026-10-06","valid_to":"2026-10-06","observation_start":"2026-09-30","observation_end":"2026-10-06","verification_status":"Verified primary official U.S. Drought Monitor weekly narrative; exact HTML and SHA-256 retained in the dated source review.","source_scope_note":"Location-specific U.S. Drought Monitor classifications valid 6 October and released 8 October. They are not national disaster or emergency declarations, impact assessments or evidence that all locations within a country share the same condition.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful reporting of the official local classifications and station rainfall totals; nationwide conditions, impacts, causation and recovery are not inferred."},{"profile_id":"","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / NCEP","source_title":"Global Ocean Monitoring: Recent Evolution, Current Status, and Predictions — 9 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-09","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_2026_10.pdf","last_checked":"10 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","verification_status":"Verified primary official NOAA CPC/NCEP monthly ocean briefing; all 68 original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Basin-scale September ocean monitoring. ERSSTv6, OISSTv2.1 and other SST products use different methods and can differ by more than 0.3°C, so their values are kept labelled and are not treated as interchangeable. These records do not establish country impacts, national warnings or site-level causation.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of NOAA's stated datasets, values and historical rankings; local impacts, coral bleaching occurrence, causal attribution and forecast realization are not inferred.","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-09-30","observation_start":"2026-09-01","observation_end":"2026-09-30","evidence_id":"E0828","used_for_field":"enso_monthly_ocean_monitoring","claim_text":"NOAA CPC reports that September 2026 El Niño conditions strengthened further. ERSSTv6 RONI was +2.1°C; NOAA also reports a +2.1°C OISSTv2.1 relative Niño 3.4 value. The briefing explicitly notes that estimates from different SST products can differ by more than 0.3°C, so these labelled monthly values must not be substituted for one another or for weekly monitoring values.","page_or_section":"PDF page 9: relative SST/RONI bullet box; PDF page 10: OISST relative and traditional Niño-index bullet box"},{"profile_id":"","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / NCEP","source_title":"Global Ocean Monitoring: Recent Evolution, Current Status, and Predictions — 9 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-09","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_2026_10.pdf","last_checked":"10 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","verification_status":"Verified primary official NOAA CPC/NCEP monthly ocean briefing; all 68 original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Basin-scale September ocean monitoring. ERSSTv6, OISSTv2.1 and other SST products use different methods and can differ by more than 0.3°C, so their values are kept labelled and are not treated as interchangeable. These records do not establish country impacts, national warnings or site-level causation. Values and rankings are present, but the current claim incorrectly carries the OISST label onto the separate ERSSTv6 historical chart. Source facts verified with dataset attribution correction.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of NOAA's stated datasets, values and historical rankings; local impacts, coral bleaching occurrence, causal attribution and forecast realization are not inferred.","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-09-30","observation_start":"2026-09-01","observation_end":"2026-09-30","evidence_id":"E0829","used_for_field":"enso_historical_context","claim_text":"NOAA’s OISSTv2.1 monitoring slide reports a September 2026 Niño 1+2 anomaly of +4.7°C. Separately, its historical Niño 1+2 chart, labelled ERSSTv6, ranks September 2026 above 1997 and as the warmest month since 1950. Its relative Niño 3.4 history ranks September 2026 as the second-warmest September since 1950, slightly below 1997. These are dataset-specific historical comparisons, not country-impact rankings.","page_or_section":"PDF page 10: OISST relative and traditional Niño-index bullet box; PDF page 11: ERSSTv6 chart data label and historical-ranking caption; PDF page 12: relative Niño3.4 historical-ranking caption and series link"},{"profile_id":"","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / NCEP","source_title":"Global Ocean Monitoring: Recent Evolution, Current Status, and Predictions — 9 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-09","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_2026_10.pdf","last_checked":"10 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","verification_status":"Verified primary official NOAA CPC/NCEP monthly ocean briefing; all 68 original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Basin-scale September ocean monitoring. ERSSTv6, OISSTv2.1 and other SST products use different methods and can differ by more than 0.3°C, so their values are kept labelled and are not treated as interchangeable. These records do not establish country impacts, national warnings or site-level causation.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of NOAA's stated datasets, values and historical rankings; local impacts, coral bleaching occurrence, causal attribution and forecast realization are not inferred.","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-09-30","observation_start":"2026-09-01","observation_end":"2026-09-30","evidence_id":"E0830","used_for_field":"enso_subsurface_monitoring","claim_text":"NOAA CPC reports that September 2026 warm-water-volume and central-Pacific precursor indices both reached their highest values since 1993. Strong positive 20°C-isotherm-depth anomalies strengthened in the eastern Pacific, and the volume of subsurface warming above +10°C increased over the latest six pentads. NOAA describes weakened trade winds, subsurface warming and eastern-Pacific SSTs as robust air–sea coupling in an intensifying El Niño.","page_or_section":"PDF page 16: coupled air–sea anomaly interpretation; PDF page 17: D20, WWV and CTP bullet box; PDF page 19: subsurface warming-volume and western negative-anomaly bullet box"},{"profile_id":"","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center / NCEP","source_title":"Global Ocean Monitoring: Recent Evolution, Current Status, and Predictions — 9 October 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-09","exact_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_2026_10.pdf","last_checked":"10 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"observation","verification_status":"Verified primary official NOAA CPC/NCEP monthly ocean briefing; all 68 original PDF pages were rendered and visually reviewed, and the archived original SHA-256 is retained.","source_scope_note":"Basin-scale September ocean monitoring. ERSSTv6, OISSTv2.1 and other SST products use different methods and can differ by more than 0.3°C, so their values are kept labelled and are not treated as interchangeable. These records do not establish country impacts, national warnings or site-level causation.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of NOAA's stated datasets, values and historical rankings; local impacts, coral bleaching occurrence, causal attribution and forecast realization are not inferred.","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-09-30","observation_start":"2026-09-01","observation_end":"2026-09-30","evidence_id":"E0831","used_for_field":"marine_heatwave_monitoring","claim_text":"NOAA CPC maps marine heatwaves during September 2026 in the central-eastern tropical Pacific and western-central North Pacific. The briefing defines these as warming above the daily 90th percentile for at least 14 consecutive days. This basin-scale condition does not establish coral bleaching, ecosystem impacts or El Niño causation at any specific Pacific island or site.","page_or_section":"PDF page 7: marine-heatwave location narrative and methodological footer"},{"profile_id":"","publisher":"Japan Meteorological Agency / Tokyo Climate Center","source_title":"El Niño Outlook — October 2026 to April 2027","publication_date":"2026-10-09","exact_url":"https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official JMA monitoring and outlook against the dated source page; a retrieval hash and exact supporting excerpts are retained.","source_scope_note":"JMA's NINO.3 region, latest sliding 30-year climatology and preliminary monthly values differ from NOAA RONI, relative Niño-3.4 and other SST products. The records are complementary and not interchangeable; they do not establish local impacts or replace national warnings.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of JMA's official statement; forecast realization and country-level impacts remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0832","evidence_kind":"observation","used_for_field":"enso_jma_monitoring","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-09-30","observation_start":"2026-09-01","observation_end":"2026-09-30","claim_text":"JMA reports a preliminary September 2026 NINO.3 sea-surface-temperature deviation of +4.0°C from its latest sliding 30-year climatology. It exceeded the previous +3.6°C record from December 1997 and was the highest monthly NINO.3 deviation in JMA's series since records began in 1949.","page_or_section":"Outlook bullets and El Niño/La Niña section; El Niño Monitoring Indices table (latest values marked preliminary)"},{"profile_id":"","publisher":"Japan Meteorological Agency / Tokyo Climate Center","source_title":"El Niño Outlook — October 2026 to April 2027","publication_date":"2026-10-09","exact_url":"https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified primary official JMA monitoring and outlook against the dated source page; a retrieval hash and exact supporting excerpts are retained.","source_scope_note":"JMA's NINO.3 region, latest sliding 30-year climatology and preliminary monthly values differ from NOAA RONI, relative Niño-3.4 and other SST products. The records are complementary and not interchangeable; they do not establish local impacts or replace national warnings.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of JMA's official statement; forecast realization and country-level impacts remain uncertain.","evidence_id":"E0833","evidence_kind":"forecast","used_for_field":"enso_jma_official_outlook","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2027-02-28","claim_text":"JMA's 9 October official outlook says the strongest El Niño conditions are virtually certain (100%) to continue until boreal winter and expects NINO.3 SST to increase until winter, with a record peak likely during the season. JMA separately reports NINO.WEST below normal in September and likely to remain below normal until boreal winter.","page_or_section":"El Niño/La Niña outlook paragraphs; Western Pacific and Indian Ocean section"},{"profile_id":"","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","source_title":"Global Seasonal Climate Update — October to December 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/sea-surface-temperatures-reflect-strengthening-el-nino","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","verification_status":"Verified official WMO multi-centre seasonal update against the dated source page; a retrieval hash and exact supporting excerpts are retained.","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","source_scope_note":"Global multi-model guidance using a 1993–2009 baseline. It complements but does not replace NOAA's official ENSO headline or national and local forecasts. Index regions, baselines, averaging periods and probabilities are kept labelled and must not be treated as interchangeable.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the WMO global product; low for any unverified country-level extrapolation, forecast realization or impact claim.","evidence_id":"E0834","used_for_field":"enso_wmo_global_seasonal_update","claim_text":"WMO's multi-centre October update reports a near-100% likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027. For October–December it forecasts a seasonal-average Niño-3.4 anomaly of about +3.7°C, peaking around December and higher than the previous seasonal record cited by WMO. The consensus combines thirteen national and international prediction centres.","page_or_section":"Press release paragraphs 3–8 under the introductory section; Niño-3.4 forecast paragraph"},{"profile_id":"","publisher":"World Meteorological Organization","source_title":"Global Seasonal Climate Update — October to December 2026","publication_date":"2026-10-08","exact_url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/sea-surface-temperatures-reflect-strengthening-el-nino","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"forecast","verification_status":"Verified official WMO multi-centre seasonal update against the dated source page; a retrieval hash and exact supporting excerpts are retained.","valid_from":"2026-10-01","valid_to":"2026-12-31","source_scope_note":"Global multi-model guidance using a 1993–2009 baseline. It complements but does not replace NOAA's official ENSO headline or national and local forecasts. Index regions, baselines, averaging periods and probabilities are kept labelled and must not be treated as interchangeable.","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the WMO global product; low for any unverified country-level extrapolation, forecast realization or impact claim.","evidence_id":"E0835","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_global","claim_text":"WMO's October–December global seasonal update favours above-normal rainfall across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific east of the Date Line, while a broad dry signal is forecast over the western Pacific and extending across the South Pacific. WMO explicitly says these large-scale signals are not substitutes for national and local forecasts.","page_or_section":"Surface temperature and rainfall section, rainfall paragraphs and map caption"},{"evidence_id":"E0836","profile_id":"guam","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"For Guam, the earlier portal entry attributed approximately 50% probability of below-normal SON 2026 rainfall to the NOAA August USAPI map; that original issue has not been recovered. The reviewed NOAA global map (IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026) shows an approximately 70% below-normal category in the nearby coarse grid. These are different products, not precise island probabilities or two independently verified conflicting originals. The portal uses the traceable global map for the dry direction and retains the legacy value for comparison.","source_title":"NOAA NMME global precipitation probability map, IC=202608, lead 1, 2026 SON","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/NMME/archive/2026080800/prob/images/prob_ensemble_prate_season1.png","page_or_section":"Map heading IC=202608 / SON2026, grid near Guam and below-normal colour legend","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified original global graphic; approximate visual interpretation","source_scope_note":"For Guam, the earlier portal entry attributed approximately 50% probability of below-normal SON 2026 rainfall to the NOAA August USAPI map; that original issue has not been recovered. The reviewed NOAA global map (IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026) shows an approximately 70% below-normal category in the nearby coarse grid. These are different products, not precise island probabilities or two independently verified conflicting originals. The portal uses the traceable global map for the dry direction and retains the legacy value for comparison.","evidence_kind":"forecast","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30"},{"evidence_id":"E0837","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","used_for_field":"rainfall_outlook_son","claim_text":"For southern CNMI, the earlier portal entry attributed approximately 50% probability of below-normal SON 2026 rainfall to the NOAA August USAPI map; that original issue has not been recovered. The reviewed NOAA global map (IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026) shows an approximately 60% below-normal category in the nearby coarse grid. These are different products, not precise island probabilities or two independently verified conflicting originals. The portal uses the traceable global map for the dry direction and retains the legacy value for comparison.","source_title":"NOAA NMME global precipitation probability map, IC=202608, lead 1, 2026 SON","publisher":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center","publication_date":"2026-08","exact_url":"https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/NMME/archive/2026080800/prob/images/prob_ensemble_prate_season1.png","page_or_section":"Map heading IC=202608 / SON2026, grid near southern CNMI and below-normal colour legend","last_checked":"12 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","verification_status":"Verified original global graphic; approximate visual interpretation","source_scope_note":"For southern CNMI, the earlier portal entry attributed approximately 50% probability of below-normal SON 2026 rainfall to the NOAA August USAPI map; that original issue has not been recovered. The reviewed NOAA global map (IC=202608, lead 1, SON 2026) shows an approximately 60% below-normal category in the nearby coarse grid. These are different products, not precise island probabilities or two independently verified conflicting originals. The portal uses the traceable global map for the dry direction and retains the legacy value for comparison.","evidence_kind":"forecast","valid_from":"2026-09-01","valid_to":"2026-11-30"},{"profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","publisher":"Department of Prime Minister and National Executive Council, Papua New Guinea","source_title":"PM Marape directs immediate disaster relief action as Government makes funding available to assist El Niño-affected communities","publication_date":"2026-10-12","exact_url":"https://www.pmnec.gov.pg/pm-marape-directs-immediate-disaster-relief-action-as-government-makes-funding-available-to-assist-el-nino-affected-communities/","last_checked":"14 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","source_reliability":"A — primary official national executive statement","verification_status":"Verified against the dated primary official statement; exact supporting excerpts and a retrieval hash are retained.","source_scope_note":"The source verifies what the Prime Minister directed, stated and planned. It does not verify transfer or expenditure of funds, completed assessments, relief delivery, beneficiary reach, or the occurrence and outcome of the planned National Security Advisory Council meeting.","evidence_id":"E0838","evidence_kind":"governance_decision","used_for_field":"institutional_preparedness","valid_from":"2026-10-12","claim_text":"On 12 October, Papua New Guinea's Prime Minister directed all Provincial and District Administrations to immediately mobilise disaster relief and assistance for communities affected by El Niño-related dry weather. The statement describes established district, provincial and national structures: districts identify affected communities, assess immediate needs and coordinate relief, and District Administrations are the first points of contact.","page_or_section":"Article paragraphs 1 and 3–7 under the dated title","analytical_confidence":"High for the official directive and described responsibilities; low for implementation and delivery because this source provides no completed-action or beneficiary evidence."},{"profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","publisher":"Department of Prime Minister and National Executive Council, Papua New Guinea","source_title":"PM Marape directs immediate disaster relief action as Government makes funding available to assist El Niño-affected communities","publication_date":"2026-10-12","exact_url":"https://www.pmnec.gov.pg/pm-marape-directs-immediate-disaster-relief-action-as-government-makes-funding-available-to-assist-el-nino-affected-communities/","last_checked":"14 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","source_reliability":"A — primary official national executive statement","verification_status":"Verified against the dated primary official statement; exact supporting excerpts and a retrieval hash are retained.","source_scope_note":"The source verifies what the Prime Minister directed, stated and planned. It does not verify transfer or expenditure of funds, completed assessments, relief delivery, beneficiary reach, or the occurrence and outcome of the planned National Security Advisory Council meeting.","evidence_id":"E0839","evidence_kind":"reported_finance","used_for_field":"response_financing","valid_from":"2026-10-12","claim_text":"The Prime Minister's official statement says national Disaster Funding had been made available for transfer to relevant accounts. The article gives no amount and does not provide transfer, receipt, expenditure or relief-delivery records; the portal therefore records announced availability, not verified disbursement or spending.","page_or_section":"Article paragraph 2 and direct quotation","analytical_confidence":"High for faithful transcription of the government's funding-availability statement; unverified for amount, transfer completion, expenditure and delivery."},{"profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","publisher":"Department of Prime Minister and National Executive Council, Papua New Guinea","source_title":"PM Marape directs immediate disaster relief action as Government makes funding available to assist El Niño-affected communities","publication_date":"2026-10-12","exact_url":"https://www.pmnec.gov.pg/pm-marape-directs-immediate-disaster-relief-action-as-government-makes-funding-available-to-assist-el-nino-affected-communities/","last_checked":"14 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","source_reliability":"A — primary official national executive statement","verification_status":"Verified against the dated primary official statement; exact supporting excerpts and a retrieval hash are retained.","source_scope_note":"The source verifies what the Prime Minister directed, stated and planned. It does not verify transfer or expenditure of funds, completed assessments, relief delivery, beneficiary reach, or the occurrence and outcome of the planned National Security Advisory Council meeting.","evidence_id":"E0840","evidence_kind":"planned_action","used_for_field":"coordination_plan","valid_from":"2026-10-12","claim_text":"The Prime Minister announced that the National Security Advisory Council would be convened later that week to assess disaster impacts and consider a coordinated national response. This is recorded as a planned meeting; the source does not verify that it occurred or document an outcome.","page_or_section":"Article paragraphs 7–8","analytical_confidence":"High for the announced plan; no confidence is assigned to meeting occurrence or outcome without a subsequent official record."},{"evidence_id":"E0841","profile_id":"","used_for_field":"enso_data_methodology","claim_text":"From 13 October 2026, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology updated sea-surface-temperature datasets used in several monitoring products, including the change from NOAA ERSST version 5 to version 6 and updates to GAMSSA data and map masking. BoM says small changes may appear in SST values, rankings and indices, but the update does not affect current forecasts or assessments of ENSO and the IOD.","source_title":"Climate service announcements — Ocean data updates","publisher":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology","publication_date":"2026-10-13","exact_url":"https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/announcements/","page_or_section":"Ocean data updates; change date 13 October 2026","last_checked":"14 October 2026","evidence_grade":"A","evidence_kind":"source_evidence","valid_from":"2026-10-13","source_reliability":"A — primary official national meteorological service announcement","verification_status":"Verified against the dated official service announcement; exact supporting text and a retrieval hash are retained.","source_scope_note":"This is a monitoring-methodology change that can explain small discontinuities in SST values, rankings and indices after 13 October. BoM explicitly says it does not change current forecasts or ENSO/IOD assessments; no country impact or warning is inferred.","analytical_confidence":"High for the documented dataset transition and BoM's stated non-effect on the current assessment."}],"changes":[{"change_id":"CHG001","change_date":"2026-08-30","jurisdiction":"All","field_changed":"coverage","previous_value":"14 Pacific Island countries","new_value":"24 jurisdictions: 22 Pacific Island countries and territories plus Australia and New Zealand","reason":"User-requested complete regional coverage","source_urls":["https://www.spc.int/our-members","https://pacificdata.org/story/coastal-proximity-populations-22-pacific-island-countries-and-territories"]},{"change_id":"CHG002","change_date":"2026-08-30","jurisdiction":"U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands","field_changed":"source URL","previous_value":"Dynamic U.S. Drought Monitor homepage","new_value":"Dated 25 August 2026 Pacific drought-summary URL","reason":"Make the evidence reproducible and directly traceable","source_urls":["https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260825.html"]},{"change_id":"CHG003","change_date":"2026-08-30","jurisdiction":"All","field_changed":"evidence model","previous_value":"Profile-level semicolon source lists","new_value":"Normalized profile facts and field-level evidence links with exact URLs","reason":"Support true footnotes, interactive map drill-down and Power BI-ready joins","source_urls":[]},{"change_id":"CHG004","change_date":"2026-08-31","jurisdiction":"All","field_changed":"historical impact layer","previous_value":"No country-level historical story layer","new_value":"39 referenced stories, classified by hazard family, and 3 explicit evidence gaps across 24 jurisdictions","reason":"Make the full reviewed historical set visible, including wet, cyclone/coastal, marine and compound precedents, without overstating causal attribution","source_urls":["https://www.weather.gov/media/peac/impacts/Impacts_Q12016.pdf","https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Pacific%20Region%20Q2%202016%20Climate%20Impacts%20and%20Outlook_FINAL.pdf","https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Pacific%20Region%20Q3%202016%20Climate%20Impacts%20and%20Outlook_FINAL.pdf","https://www.weather.gov/media/peac/PEU/PEU_v23_n2.pdf","https://www.nasa.gov/missions/goes/amos-was-20p-southern-pacific-ocean/","https://www.aims.gov.au/research-topics/environmental-issues/coral-bleaching/coral-bleaching-events","https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/analyses_guidance/enso_bleaching_97-99_ag_20140507.php","https://researchdata.edu.au/coral-bleaching-events-barrier-reef/1314820","https://www.aims.gov.au/information-centre/news-and-stories/extent-and-severity-2016-coral-bleaching-australias-coral-reefs-revealed","https://www.fao.org/4/w7447e/pays/ocea9712.htm","https://scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/0b66f723-b3b9-4598-9a6a-71d351a02815/content","https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/MET/Enso/peu/update.dir/Update-1stQtr98.html","https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/micronesia-federated-states/fsm-el-ni%C3%B1o-drought-ocha-situation-report-no-1","https://repository.unescap.org/bitstreams/3cc6b346-17de-4d55-aa5f-6b02bc8cd24b/download","https://myfsm.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-federated-states-of-micronesia.html","https://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/El%20Nino%20Presentation_Setting%20the%20Context%20(OCHA-ESCAP-UNDP).pdf","https://www.health.gov.fj/fact-sheet-drought-and-health/","https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03112-1","https://www.ifrc.org/docs?file=appeals/rpts98/fj001.pdf","https://lameteorologie.fr/admin/api/public/api/meteo/website/downloadArticlePDF/meteo_1998_23_97","https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/pleins_textes_7/b_fdi_53-54/010016528.pdf","https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project98/sh_proj1.html","https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-1998-01-09/html/98-548.htm","https://www.weather.gov/media/peac/PEU/PEUSB12010.pdf","https://guamhydrologicsurvey.uog.edu/2026/05/12/weri-technical-report-189/","https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/26766/noaa_26766_DS1.pdf","https://news.trust.org/item/20151203061953-f2akb","https://www.elibrary.imf.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/002/2016/292/article-A001-en.pdf","https://www.laohamutuk.org/DVD/2015/ADBPEMDec2015.pdf","https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-37713-1","https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6385266/","https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/analyses_guidance/pacific_climate_updates/pacific_climate_update_coral_reef_watch_20160503.pdf","https://mobi-juridoc.gouv.nc/juridoc/jdjonc.nsf/1239F02CAD9101294B257F2F0073A37A/$file/9229.pdf?openelement=","https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-06/Reconstituted%20MORST%20El%20Nin%CC%83o%20report.pdf","https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/el-nino-and-la-nina/impact-el-nino-and-la-nina-new-zealands-climate","https://niue-data.sprep.org/system/files/IWRM%20DIAGNOSTIC%20REPORT-%20niue-%20jan07%202nd.pdf","https://www.cnmi-cdbgdr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/CNMI-CDBG-MIT-AP-NSA-No.-1-06.13.2023.pdf","https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Final_Palau%20National%20Communication.pdf","https://unfccc.int/documents/199648","https://www.palaugov.pw/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Drought-Report-Final.pdf","https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/drought-pacific","https://repository.unescap.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/57a91818-b708-46e3-bfe2-c4bea7dc8c65/content","https://papuanewguinea.un.org/en/download/4106/21166","https://www.ifrc.org/docs?file=Appeals/15/IBPNG050915.pdf","https://www.usgs.gov/publications/effects-1998-drought-freshwater-lens-laura-area-majuro-atoll-republic-marshall-islands","https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/marnc1.pdf","https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-019-03735-9","https://www.preventionweb.net/media/83379/download","https://www.weather.gov/media/peac/PEU/PEU_v20_n3.pdf","https://www.preventionweb.net/publication/documents-and-publications/republic-marshall-islands-post-disaster-needs-assessment","https://www.preventionweb.net/media/77824/download","https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/slb01.pdf","https://www.fao.org/4/w7447e/pays/soi9712e.htm","https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/SI%20SNC%20FINAL_1-1.pdf","https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/impact_pacific_tools.pdf","https://www.undp.org/pacific/press-releases/rising-challenge","https://www.facebook.com/100063475390732/posts/27-may-2015-media-releaseel-ni%C3%B1o-has-arrivedthe-tuvalu-meteorological-service-wi/1581837985429997/","https://www.pacificmet.net/sites/default/files/inline-files/documents/Regional%20statement%20FINAL-%2016Oct2015.pdf","https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-01/pacific-island-nations-battered-by-heavy-rains-and-strong-winds/7061982","https://researchportalplus.anu.edu.au/en/publications/climate-extremes-constrain-agency-and-long-term-health-a-qualitat/","https://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/dyn/11/questions/QANR5L11QE12800"]},{"change_id":"CHG005","change_date":"2026-09-02","jurisdiction":"All","field_changed":"methodology, map semantics and source-system transparency","previous_value":"Impact markers reused seasonal signal colours; structural vulnerability context and external loss-database coverage were not visible in the working view","new_value":"Impact markers are neutral; INFORM 2026 vulnerability and lack of coping capacity are shown separately as national structural context; DesInventar, EM-DAT and DELTA non-inclusion is explicit","reason":"Prevent a forecast class from being interpreted as impact severity or a current risk score, and make database coverage gaps discoverable","source_urls":["https://drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/inform-index/INFORM-Risk/Results-and-data","https://drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/inform-index/INFORM-Risk/Methodology","https://www.desinventar.net/DesInventar/country_profile.jsp?countrycode=pac&lang=EN","https://doc.emdat.be/docs/data-accessibility/","https://www.undrr.org/building-risk-knowledge/disaster-losses-and-damages-tracking-system-delta-resilience"]},{"change_id":"CHG006","change_date":"2026-09-03","jurisdiction":"New Zealand","field_changed":"seasonal outlook, observed conditions and evidence period","previous_value":"August–October 2026 national outlook assessed on 30 August","new_value":"September–November 2026 national outlook issued 2 September, including region-specific rainfall, soil-moisture and river-flow probabilities and observations through 30 August","reason":"Replace the superseded national forecast period with the newest primary official source while retaining source trust and analytical-confidence qualifications separately","source_urls":["https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-september-november-2026"]},{"change_id":"CHG007","change_date":"2026-09-04","jurisdiction":"American Samoa; Federated States of Micronesia; Guam; Northern Mariana Islands; Palau; Republic of the Marshall Islands","field_changed":"observed drought conditions","previous_value":"U.S. Drought Monitor classifications valid 25 August 2026","new_value":"U.S. Drought Monitor classifications and weekly rainfall valid 1 September 2026: American Samoa remains D1-S; Kapingamarangi and Palau remain D0-S; Guam, CNMI, RMI and the rest of FSM remain drought-free","reason":"Replace the superseded weekly monitoring observation with the newest dated primary official classification while leaving seasonal outlook classifications unchanged","source_urls":["https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260901.html"]},{"change_id":"CHG008","change_date":"2026-09-04","jurisdiction":"Fiji","field_changed":"sugar-sector rainfall outlook and official advisory","previous_value":"National dry signal and analytical agriculture actions without the September sugar-belt product","new_value":"Official FMS/SRIF location-specific rainfall thresholds and sugarcane advice for September–December 2026, with the product's low-confidence qualification retained","reason":"Add a new primary official sector product with operationally specific agricultural guidance while keeping source trust separate from forecast confidence","source_urls":["https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/FSCRO_September_2026.pdf"]},{"change_id":"CHG009","change_date":"2026-09-04","jurisdiction":"All","field_changed":"ENSO status and persistence outlook","previous_value":"Strong El Niño expected to intensify during August–October 2026","new_value":"WMO reports El Niño firmly established, expected to become very strong, with a near 100% likelihood of persistence through February 2027","reason":"Replace the superseded global ENSO status with the newest WMO consensus update while retaining the explicit caveat that event strength does not determine country-level impact severity","source_urls":["https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027"]},{"change_id":"CHG010","change_date":"2026-09-05","jurisdiction":"Australia","field_changed":"seasonal rainfall outlook and observed climate indicators","previous_value":"Australia outlook issued 27 August and late-August qualitative monitoring","new_value":"Australia outlook issued 3 September with updated probability ranges and timing, plus relative Niño3.4 +2.45°C, 30-day SOI −14.6 and neutral IOD +0.22°C through 30 August","reason":"Replace the superseded national outlook and add the newest primary official observed indicators while retaining the mixed national signal and location-specific interpretation","source_urls":["https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/"]},{"change_id":"CHG011","change_date":"2026-09-10","jurisdiction":"All","field_changed":"ENSO status, observed ocean–atmosphere indicators and strength outlook","previous_value":"WMO 3 September assessment: El Niño expected to become very strong, with near 100% likelihood of persistence through February 2027","new_value":"NOAA 10 September assessment: El Niño strengthened further in August; greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and 75% chance of historic October–December strength, with August relative Niño-3.4 at +1.8°C","reason":"Add the newest primary official monthly ENSO assessment while retaining that event strength raises—but does not guarantee—country-level impacts","source_urls":["https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml"]},{"change_id":"CHG012","change_date":"2026-09-10","jurisdiction":"American Samoa; Federated States of Micronesia; Guam; Northern Mariana Islands; Palau; Republic of the Marshall Islands","field_changed":"observed drought conditions","previous_value":"U.S. Drought Monitor classifications valid 1 September 2026: American Samoa D1-S; Kapingamarangi and Palau D0-S; Guam, CNMI, RMI and the rest of FSM drought-free","new_value":"U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8 September 2026: Palau deteriorated to D1-S; American Samoa remains D1-S; Kapingamarangi remains D0-S; Guam, CNMI, RMI and the rest of FSM remain drought-free, with updated weekly rainfall observations","reason":"Replace the superseded weekly observation with the newest primary official classification while leaving seasonal outlook classes unchanged","source_urls":["https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260908.html"]},{"change_id":"CHG013","change_date":"2026-09-10","jurisdiction":"Fiji","field_changed":"observed rainfall status and multi-timescale very-dry outlook","previous_value":"Fiji dry seasonal signal based on regional monitoring and the September sugar-sector outlook, with observed water stress noted through mid-August","new_value":"Fiji Met's 10 September Early Action Rainfall Watch records localized serious and very dry conditions through August and a very high chance of very dry conditions nationwide during September and September–November 2026","reason":"Add the newest primary official national early-action bulletin, separating observed rainfall status, forecast information and potential affected systems while leaving Fiji's seasonal class unchanged","source_urls":["https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_EAR_Watch_September_2026.pdf"]},{"change_id":"CHG014","change_date":"2026-09-12","jurisdiction":"Pacific","field_changed":"subnational observations and observed SST map","previous_value":"Administrative reference boundaries; rainfall-only observed background","new_value":"Ten Fiji 3/6/12-month rainfall classifications and a dated NOAA SST anomaly layer with source hashes and display aggregation","reason":"Connect existing local evidence to geography and distinguish observed ocean temperature from rainfall and forecasts","source_urls":["https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_EAR_Watch_September_2026.pdf","https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/socd/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1-clim19912020-v1/nc/v1.0/daily/ssta/2026/ct5km_ssta_v3.1-clim19912020-v1_20260910.nc"]},{"change_id":"CHG015","change_date":"2026-09-12","jurisdiction":"Pacific inclusion evidence","field_changed":"Inclusion evidence retrieval and display","previous_value":"Only indexed current country claims counted; broader and historical evidence hidden","new_value":"Country evidence, regional context, historical records and guidance shown separately; six primary-source extracts indexed","reason":"Avoid treating missing extraction or a time filter as absence of evidence; preserve original geographic and time scope","source_urls":["https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/sites/default/files/2026-06/ap-20260487421-genderalert-the-2026-el-nino-and-compounding-crises-in-ap_june2026.pdf","https://www.unicef.org/media/156221/file/Pacific-MCO%2C-Federated-States-of-Micronesia-%28FSM%29-%26-Republic-of-%20the-Marshall-Islands-%28RMI%29-Humanitarian-Situation-Report-No.2-%28Drought%29-April-2024.pdf","https://www.unicef.org/media/155256/file/Drought-Emergency-Response-for-the-North-Pacific%28FSM-and-RMI%29%2CApril%202024.pdf"]},{"change_id":"CHG016","change_date":"2026-09-13","jurisdiction":"Australia","field_changed":"October–December outlook supplement and coastal SST observations","previous_value":"Australia record contains the 3 September spring outlook and monitoring through 30 August","new_value":"Adds 10 September official October–December rainfall/temperature outlook and coastal SST observations through 6 September; retains the September–November assessment","reason":"Integrate a newer primary-source forecast without mislabelling its period or changing country risk classifications","source_urls":["https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/"]},{"change_id":"CHG017","change_date":"2026-09-14","jurisdiction":"Tuvalu","field_changed":"communal water-storage readiness and planned drought-response measures","previous_value":"Readiness profile described national drought-monitoring and trigger-building blocks but did not include the newly completed Funafuti cisterns","new_value":"Four communal cisterns recorded as complete and awaiting commissioning; community maintenance training and reported next-phase outer-island measures documented separately from performance outcomes","reason":"Add a new primary institutional implementation account relevant to El Niño water preparedness without overstating effectiveness or replacing national guidance","source_urls":["https://www.spc.int/updates/blog/dynamic-story/2026/09/four-funafuti-communities-built-their-own-water-backup-just-as"]},{"change_id":"CHG018","change_date":"2026-09-16","jurisdiction":"Australia","field_changed":"Observed climate indices and coastal SSTs","previous_value":"Bureau monitoring issued 1 September reported a weekly relative Niño3.4 value of +2.45°C and a 30-day SOI of −14.6 through 30 August, both consistent with strong El Niño. The IOD was neutral at +0.22°C. Waters around most of Australia were warmer than average, reaching about 2–3°C above average along southern New South Wales and eastern and southern Tasmania. The 10 September outlook also reports generally warm coastal SSTs for the week ending 6 September, with near-average waters north and north-east of Australia.","new_value":"BoM monitoring issued 15 September reports a weekly relative Niño3.4 of +2.51°C and 30-day SOI of −18.5 through 13 September. IOD remains neutral despite a weekly +0.65°C index; one above-threshold reading does not establish a positive event. Coastal waters remain mostly warmer than average. These climate observations do not measure local impacts.","reason":"New primary official monitoring issued 15 September; observation period ends 13 September. Existing forecasts and warnings are preserved.","source_urls":["https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/"]},{"change_id":"CHG019","change_date":"2026-09-17","jurisdiction":"U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands and Palau","field_changed":"June–August rainfall observations and September–November regional rainfall outlook","previous_value":"The 15 September NOAA quarterly Pacific climate report was not represented at claim level.","new_value":"Adds five station-observation records, five country/area rainfall-outlook records and one tropical-Pacific coral heat-stress outlook record, each with its own period and limitation.","reason":"New primary official regional report dated 15 September 2026. Observations, forecasts and potential impacts remain explicitly separated.","source_urls":["https://www.drought.gov/documents/quarterly-climate-impacts-and-outlook-pacific-region-september-2026","https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/Pacific%20Summer%202026.pdf"]},{"change_id":"CHG020","change_date":"2026-09-17","jurisdiction":"Pacific","field_changed":"Regional climate-service products, outlook archive and meteorological governance sources","previous_value":"PMC products, OCOF, SCOPIC and September 2026 PMC/ministerial meeting materials were not indexed in the repository.","new_value":"Adds the PacificMet product directory, the 9 September COSPPac bulletin with dated ENSO and rainfall-outlook claims, OCOF Forum 227, SCOPIC methodology, PMC-8 and PMMM-4 with source-type and decision-status limitations.","reason":"Strengthen regional source coverage while preventing meeting agendas, methods and source directories from being presented as observed impacts, forecasts or approved actions.","source_urls":["https://www.pacificmet.net/products-services","https://bulletin.pacificmet.net/cos/bulletin","https://www.pacificmet.net/products-and-services/online-climate-outlook-forum","https://www.pacificmet.net/products-and-services/seasonal-climate-outlooks-pacific-island-countries-scopic","https://www.pacificmet.net/pmc-8","https://www.pacificmet.net/pmmm-4"]},{"change_id":"CHG021","change_date":"2026-09-18","jurisdiction":"American Samoa; Federated States of Micronesia; Guam; Northern Mariana Islands; Palau; Republic of the Marshall Islands","field_changed":"weekly drought classifications and rainfall observations","previous_value":"U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8 September 2026: Palau and American Samoa D1-S; Kapingamarangi D0-S; Guam, CNMI, RMI and the rest of FSM drought-free.","new_value":"U.S. Drought Monitor valid 15 September 2026: Utirik newly D0-S; Palau and American Samoa remain D1-S; Kapingamarangi remains D0-S; Guam, CNMI, the rest of RMI and the rest of FSM remain drought-free, with updated weekly rainfall observations.","reason":"New primary official weekly drought-monitor narrative published 17 September 2026. Classifications remain location-specific and do not replace national warnings.","source_urls":["https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260915.html"]},{"change_id":"CHG022","change_date":"2026-09-18","jurisdiction":"Papua New Guinea; Vanuatu","field_changed":"attributed local impact and preparedness reporting","previous_value":"The 16 September ABC field report was not indexed in the current evidence set.","new_value":"Adds four Grade-B records for localized reported crop, water, transport, social and preparedness conditions. Each record names the reporting basis, retains limitations and does not generalize to national impact prevalence.","reason":"New established-media field reporting provides relevant but non-official observations. It is published with an explicit source-reliability grade and analytical-confidence qualification.","source_urls":["https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-16/frost-freezes-crops-in-png-as-el-nino-takes-hold/107134520"]},{"change_id":"CHG023","change_date":"2026-09-19","jurisdiction":"Pacific; Palau; Federated States of Micronesia; Republic of the Marshall Islands; Kiribati","field_changed":"regional ENSO horizon, sea-level outlook and readiness stocktake","previous_value":"The PMMM-4 Agenda Item 6.1 regional presentation and its September–November sea-level outlook were not indexed.","new_value":"Adds an A− official regional technical source for a strong El Niño likely to persist into March–May 2027, ACCESS-S sea-level signals for Palau, FSM, RMI and Kiribati, the 23-response SPC–UNDRR stocktake summary and clearly labelled proposed preparedness recommendations.","reason":"PacificMet published the official PMMM-4 technical presentation. Forecasts, expert self-reports and proposed actions are separated and qualified; national warnings and seasonal classes are unchanged.","source_urls":["https://www.pacificmet.net/sites/default/files/PMMM-4/Presentations/Agenda%20Item_6.1_revised_PMMM%20El%20Nino%20presentation_Updated_final-1.pdf"]},{"change_id":"CHG024","change_date":"2026-09-19","jurisdiction":"Pacific","field_changed":"regional meteorological governance and preparedness planning","previous_value":"The portal cited the PMC-8 and PMMM-4 agendas but did not yet include the published outcome presentation or the WRP SCM-5 approval.","new_value":"Adds PMC-8 adoption status for PIMS 2027–2036, follow-through directions for Weather Ready Pacific and MHEWS maintenance financing, and approval of the updated WRP Implementation Plan and funded Work Plan 2026–2029.","reason":"New primary official regional sources distinguish adopted PMC decisions, matters awaiting ministerial endorsement and programme plans from funded delivery or verified outcomes.","source_urls":["https://www.pacificmet.net/sites/default/files/PMMM-4/Presentations/Agenda%20Item_2.2_Agenda_2.2_PMC-8_Outcomes_for_Ministers_v2.pdf","https://www.pacificmet.net/news/weather-ready-pacific-steering-committee-meets-tonga-strengthen-delivery-across-pacific"]},{"change_id":"CHG025","change_date":"2026-09-21","jurisdiction":"Australia","field_changed":"Later-period rainfall and temperature outlook supplement","previous_value":"Later-period supplement cites the 10 September October–December outlook.","new_value":"Supplement now cites the 17 September issue, with broader western/central wet areas, a separate October-only dry signal and updated temperature guidance; older claims remain dated and retained.","reason":"Newer primary official forecast. Forecast periods remain distinct; no observed-impact inference or warning replacement.","source_urls":["https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/"]},{"change_id":"CHG026","change_date":"2026-09-24","jurisdiction":"Tonga","field_changed":"Drought anticipatory finance and renewal status","previous_value":"Four 2026 drought payouts were documented through 25 August; later payout and renewal status were not indexed.","new_value":"PCRIC reports a fifth 2026 payout, triggered by insufficient August rainfall and intended for early action in ‘Eua, plus a renewal process for the policy year beginning 1 November. Amount, expenditure and outcomes are not stated.","reason":"New first-party institutional report. Source reliability is Grade B and analytical limitations are explicit.","source_urls":["https://pcric.org/pcric-delivers-fifth-drought-payout-to-tonga-highlighting-the-importance-of-pre-arranged-finance-amid-el-nino-season/"]},{"change_id":"CHG027","change_date":"2026-09-24","jurisdiction":"Republic of the Marshall Islands","field_changed":"Drought finance policy-development status","previous_value":"Product-design dialogue was documented, without evidence of an active policy.","new_value":"PCRIC reports work with the Ministry of Finance approaching completion and identifies an ADB premium-financing opportunity; finalisation and activation remain unverified.","reason":"New first-party institutional progress report. The portal does not convert planned or near-complete work into active coverage.","source_urls":["https://pcric.org/advancing-drought-protection-for-the-marshall-islands/"]},{"change_id":"CHG028","change_date":"2026-09-25","jurisdiction":"Australia","field_changed":"Later-period rainfall/temperature outlook and dated SST observations","previous_value":"Latest later-period supplement was the 17 September forecast; coastal summary did not distinguish the 20 September northern/Coral Sea pattern.","new_value":"Four records from the 24 September issue distinguish three-month rainfall, October rainfall, temperature probabilities and observed SSTs. Earlier issues retained.","reason":"Reliable factual changes from a primary official source. Source trust A is separate from analytical confidence; no new local-impact inference or warning replacement.","source_urls":["https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/"]},{"change_id":"CHG029","change_date":"2026-09-25","jurisdiction":"American Samoa; Federated States of Micronesia; Republic of the Marshall Islands; Palau","field_changed":"weekly location-specific drought classifications and rainfall observations","previous_value":"USDM valid 15 September: American Samoa D1-S, Kapingamarangi D0-S, Utirik D0-S and Palau D1-S.","new_value":"USDM valid 22 September: American Samoa improves to D0-S; Kapingamarangi deteriorates to D1-S; Utirik remains D0-S; Palau remains D1-S. Weekly rainfall and missing-data notes are updated.","reason":"New primary official weekly monitoring. Classifications remain location-specific and do not replace national warnings or seasonal outlooks.","source_urls":["https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260922.html"]},{"change_id":"CHG030","change_date":"2026-09-27","jurisdiction":"Guam; Northern Mariana Islands; Federated States of Micronesia; Palau; Republic of the Marshall Islands","field_changed":"historical risk pathways and anticipatory management options","previous_value":"The portal did not include this USGS USAPI synthesis in the reviewed evidence base.","new_value":"Adds source-scoped guidance on delayed drought risk, atoll freshwater lenses, supply pre-positioning, relief-cargo biosecurity and fisheries catchability. The page is explicitly recorded as undated and does not change current conditions.","reason":"Newly reviewed official technical synthesis. Current-event claims without adequate source support were excluded.","source_urls":["https://www.usgs.gov/programs/climate-adaptation-science-centers/regional-super-el-nino-impacts-hawaii-and-us-affiliated"]},{"change_id":"CHG031","change_date":"2026-09-28","jurisdiction":"22 Pacific Island countries and territories","field_changed":"October–December 2026 regional rainfall-outlook supplement","previous_value":"Country profiles retained September–November 2026 assessments without the later Island Climate Update 312 forecast.","new_value":"Adds separately dated October–December rainfall categories for 22 covered Pacific Island countries and territories, including subnationally mixed signals for Cook Islands, French Polynesia and Tuvalu.","reason":"Previously unindexed official WMO RA V regional climate-centre forecast. Periods remain distinct; no observed-impact inference, seasonal-class replacement or national-warning replacement.","source_urls":["https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/ICU-OND-2026.pdf","https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-312-october-2026"]},{"change_id":"CHG032","change_date":"2026-09-30","jurisdiction":"Australia / Pacific climate context","field_changed":"Observed climate indices and coastal SSTs","previous_value":"BoM monitoring issued 15 September reports a weekly relative Niño3.4 of +2.51°C and 30-day SOI of −18.5 through 13 September. IOD remains neutral despite a weekly +0.65°C index; one above-threshold reading does not establish a positive event. The later SST assessment through 20 September distinguishes generally warm coastal waters from near-to-cooler northern and Coral Sea waters; see the dated observation. These climate observations do not measure local impacts.","new_value":"BoM monitoring issued 29 September reports relative Niño3.4 at +2.72°C and 30-day SOI at −20.5 through 27 September. IOD remains neutral despite three above-threshold weeks. Coastal SST observations through 26 September show warm western/southern waters and cooler areas to the north/north-east. These observations do not establish local impacts.","reason":"New primary official observations issued 29 September. No local-impact inference or national-warning replacement.","source_urls":["https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/"]},{"change_id":"CHG033","change_date":"2026-10-01","jurisdiction":"Palau / Koror","field_changed":"Reported preparedness and project funding","previous_value":"Palau has an active staged preparedness plan and historical response architecture; a national anticipatory-action framework is under development, with no active framework/activation listed at the cutoff.","new_value":"Palau has an active staged preparedness plan and historical response architecture; a national anticipatory-action framework is under development, with no active framework/activation listed at the cutoff. SPC also reports an EU-funded, USD 235,000 Koror hydrant upgrade launched in September. Completion and operational effectiveness are not verified.","reason":"Newly indexed official SPC project report. No claim of completion or measured success, no open funding offer, and no change to forecasts, drought categories or national warnings.","source_urls":["https://spc.global.ssl.fastly.net/updates/news/media-release/2026/09/emergency-response-capacity-in-palau-boosted-through-fire"]},{"change_id":"CHG034","change_date":"2026-10-02","jurisdiction":"Australia; Fiji; Palau; FSM; Marshall Islands; American Samoa","field_changed":"Dated official forecasts and local drought monitoring","previous_value":"Fiji later-period regional supplement; Australia forecast issued 24 September; USDM valid 22 September with Utirik D0.","new_value":"National Fiji forecast issued 30 September; Australia forecast issued 1 October; USDM valid 29 September removes Utirik D0 and retains Palau/Kapingamarangi D1 and American Samoa D0.","reason":"Verified primary official sources. Source reliability A is separate from analytical confidence. Prior evidence and national warnings retained; no local impact or successful-practice claim inferred.","source_urls":["https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260929.html","https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_Climate_Outlook_October_2026.pdf"]},{"change_id":"CHG035","change_date":"2026-10-06","jurisdiction":"Australia; Nauru; Kiribati; Tuvalu; Tokelau; Cook Islands; CNMI; Guam; FSM; Marshall Islands; PNG; French Polynesia; Palau","field_changed":"Near-term regional watch and observed September conditions","previous_value":"No indexed 1 October SPREP regional watch; Australia profile contained ENSO and coastal-SST monitoring through late September but not the Bureau’s September national climate summary.","new_value":"Profile-scoped SPREP guidance and cancellations for 3–16 October (tropical-cyclone outlook 5–11 October), plus three Bureau observation records for September Australia.","reason":"Verified primary official sources. Source trust A and analytical confidence are recorded separately. No national warning, observed impact, causal attribution or successful-practice claim was inferred.","source_urls":["https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-01-10-2026-issue1.pdf","https://www.bom.gov.au/video/long-range-forecast-october-to-december-2026"]},{"change_id":"CHG036","change_date":"2026-10-07","jurisdiction":"Fiji","field_changed":"Hydropower-sector rainfall observations and forecast","previous_value":"National Fiji rainfall and temperature outlooks were indexed, but the sector-specific Monasavu observations and hydropower-site probability thresholds were not.","new_value":"Three Grade A records add Monasavu observed rainfall through September and high-confidence October and October–December rainfall thresholds for Nadarivatu, Monasavu and Wailoa.","reason":"Verified primary official source. Source trust A is kept separate from analytical confidence. Forecast realization, reservoir conditions, generation impacts, actions and national warning status are not inferred.","source_urls":["https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Climate_Outlook_for_Hydro-electricity_Generation_October_2026_Final.pdf"]},{"change_id":"CHG037","change_date":"2026-10-07","jurisdiction":"Pacific regional ENSO monitoring","field_changed":"Weekly oceanic and atmospheric ENSO observations and model guidance","previous_value":"The portal's official ENSO headline used NOAA's 10 September monthly discussion and did not include the 5 October weekly SST, RONI, atmospheric, subsurface and CFSv2 updates.","new_value":"Five Grade A records add NOAA CPC's 5 October weekly observations and updated CFSv2 guidance while retaining the 10 September official probabilistic headline.","reason":"Verified primary official monitoring source. Weekly relative SST is separated from RONI; model guidance is separated from the official probabilistic outlook; no local impact or national warning is inferred.","source_urls":["https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf"]},{"change_id":"CHG038","change_date":"2026-10-08","jurisdiction":"Pacific regional, Australia and Fiji","field_changed":"Official ENSO headline, regional climate watch, Australian outlook and Fiji observed impacts/actions","previous_value":"The official portal headline was NOAA's 10 September outlook; SPREP week 1 guidance was valid to 16 October; Australia's current outlook was issued 1 October; Fiji's September impact synthesis was not indexed.","new_value":"NOAA's 8 October official outlook, SPREP week 2 guidance, Australia's 8 October outlook and Fiji's 7 October September summary are indexed in 42 Grade A records. Four relevant Fiji photographs are linked as source-only references with no pixel reuse.","reason":"Verified dated primary official sources. Forecasts, observations, reported impacts/actions and national-warning status remain separate; source trust and analytical confidence are retained independently.","source_urls":["https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_oct2026/ensodisc.pdf","https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/probabilities/","https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/strengths/","https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-08-10-2026-issue1.pdf","https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_Climate_Summary_September_2026.pdf"]},{"change_id":"CHG039","change_date":"2026-10-09","jurisdiction":"Guam; Northern Mariana Islands; Palau; FSM; Marshall Islands; American Samoa","field_changed":"Local weekly drought monitoring and rainfall observations","previous_value":"USDM valid 29 September: Palau and Kapingamarangi D1; American Samoa D0; Guam, CNMI and monitored Marshall Islands locations drought-free.","new_value":"USDM valid 6 October: Palau improved to D0-S; Kapingamarangi remains D1-S; Tutuila remains D0-S; Guam, CNMI and all monitored Marshall Islands designations remain dryness and drought-free.","reason":"Verified primary official weekly narrative. Local classifications and station totals are retained separately from national emergency status, impacts and seasonal forecasts.","source_urls":["https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20261006.html"]},{"change_id":"CHG040","change_date":"2026-10-10","jurisdiction":"Pacific regional ocean monitoring","field_changed":"September ENSO index context, historical rankings, subsurface precursors and marine heatwaves","previous_value":"The portal included NOAA's 8 October official ENSO discussion but not the separate 9 October monthly ocean briefing and its dataset-specific September historical comparisons.","new_value":"Four Grade A records add NOAA CPC's 9 October briefing: labelled ERSSTv6/OISSTv2.1 values, the Niño 1+2 and relative Niño 3.4 historical comparisons, record-high WWV/CTP precursors since 1993 and basin-scale marine-heatwave monitoring.","reason":"Verified primary official ocean-monitoring source. Dataset differences, basin scale and analytical limits are explicit; no country impact, national warning or forecast outcome is inferred.","source_urls":["https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_2026_10.pdf"]},{"change_id":"CHG041","change_date":"2026-10-12","jurisdiction":"Northern Mariana Islands; source-passage coverage","field_changed":"Source transcription geography and source locators","previous_value":"The rainfall watch for south-eastern CNMI was cancelled for 3–16 October. SPREP identifies increased tropical-cyclone occurrence risk near northern CNMI for 5–11 October and coral-bleaching alert status for CNMI.","new_value":"The rainfall watch for south-eastern CNMI was cancelled for 3–16 October. SPREP identifies increased tropical-cyclone occurrence risk near CNMI for 5–11 October and coral-bleaching alert status for CNMI.","reason":"Corrects the geographic transcription of SPREP 1 October page 4: northern qualifies RMI, not CNMI. Source-page passages were also reviewed for 161 reference mappings across nine documents. This is a source-fidelity correction, not a new forecast, impact assessment, approval or funding confirmation.","source_urls":["https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-10/Regional-Climate-Watch-01-10-2026-issue1.pdf"]},{"change_id":"CHG042","change_date":"2026-10-12","jurisdiction":"All countries and regional source mappings","field_changed":"Source-specific support, locators, issue dates and preview review","previous_value":"582 remaining mappings without verified short text anchors in v148","new_value":"All remaining mappings reviewed; corrected source statements, exact archives and explicit support limits","reason":"Exhaustive review of 582 remaining source mappings, including source-specific corrections and a corrected Palau 2016 rationing duration. This is a source-fidelity audit, not a new national forecast, disaster declaration, approval or funding confirmation.","source_urls":["https://col.guamcourts.gov/sites/default/files/12gc014.pdf","https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/analyses_guidance/enso_bleaching_97-99_ag_20140507.php","https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/analyses_guidance/pacific_climate_updates/pacific_climate_update_coral_reef_watch_20160503.pdf","https://crews-initiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/CREWS-Drought-Resilience-and-Early-Warning-DREW-Pacific-Project-Document.pdf","https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pdf/20260825/20260825_usdm_pg2.pdf","https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260825.html","https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260901.html","https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20260915.html","https://getready.govt.nz/emergency/other-hazards","https://ghs.guam.gov/sites/default/files/guam_2024_hmp_20240711_ms_updated_maps.pdf","https://guamhydrologicsurvey.uog.edu/2026/05/12/weri-technical-report-189/","https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/pleins_textes_7/b_fdi_53-54/010016528.pdf","https://lameteorologie.fr/admin/api/public/api/meteo/website/downloadArticlePDF/meteo_1998_23_97","https://library.sprep.org/content/pacific-islands-early-action-rainfall-watch-august-2026","https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03112-1","https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-019-03735-9","https://meteo.nc/fr/actualites/el-nino-quels-impacts-pour-la-nouvelle-caledonie","https://meteo.nc/fr/publications/bulletin-climatique-mensuel-juillet-2026","https://meteo.nc/fr/publications/prevision-saisonniere-pour-le-trimestre-septembre-octobre-novembre-2026","https://meteo.wf/fr/bulletin-climatique-mensuel-juillet-2026","https://meteo.wf/fr/prevision-saisonniere-pour-le-trimestre-septembre-octobre-novembre-2026","https://mobi-juridoc.gouv.nc/juridoc/jdjonc.nsf/1239F02CAD9101294B257F2F0073A37A/$file/9229.pdf?openelement=","https://myfsm.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-federated-states-of-micronesia.html","https://news.trust.org/item/20151203061953-f2akb","https://niue-data.sprep.org/system/files/IWRM%20DIAGNOSTIC%20REPORT-%20niue-%20jan07%202nd.pdf","https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/el-nino-and-la-nina","https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/el-nino-and-la-nina/impact-el-nino-and-la-nina-new-zealands-climate","https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/monthly-climate-summary-july-2026","https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-august-october-2026","https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-06/Reconstituted%20MORST%20El%20Nin%CC%83o%20report.pdf","https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-08/ICU-SON-2026.pdf","https://odapm.as.gov/hazardmitigation","https://opd.gov.mp/library/agency/homeland-security-and-emergency-management.html","https://opd.gov.mp/library/reports/2018-cnmi-ssmp-update.pdf","https://pacific.un.org/en/261234-fiji-endorses-pacific%E2%80%99s-first-anticipatory-action-framework-tropical-cyclones","https://palaugov.pw/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/EL-NINO-Response-Plan-2016.pdf","https://papuanewguinea.un.org/en/download/4106/21166","https://pcric.org/2026/02/17/pcric-advances-drought-policy-development-in-rmi/","https://pcric.org/2026/04/02/nauru-becomes-11th-pcric-council-member-with-purchase-of-drought-protection-policy/","https://pcric.org/advancing-drought-protection-for-the-marshall-islands/","https://pcric.org/drought/","https://pcric.org/fourth-drought-payout-for-tonga-under-gssp-supported-policy/","https://pcric.org/pcric-delivers-fifth-drought-payout-to-tonga-highlighting-the-importance-of-pre-arranged-finance-amid-el-nino-season/","https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6385266/","https://portal.fireandemergency.nz/notices-news-and-events/news/el-nino-readiness-preparing-early-for-the-wildfire-season/","https://portal.fireandemergency.nz/notices-news-and-events/news/preparing-for-the-season-ahead-what-were-doing-and-why/","https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/26766/noaa_26766_DS1.pdf","https://repository.unescap.org/bitstreams/3cc6b346-17de-4d55-aa5f-6b02bc8cd24b/download","https://repository.unescap.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/57a91818-b708-46e3-bfe2-c4bea7dc8c65/content","https://researchdata.edu.au/coral-bleaching-events-barrier-reef/1314820","https://researchportalplus.anu.edu.au/en/publications/climate-extremes-constrain-agency-and-long-term-health-a-qualitat/","https://scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/0b66f723-b3b9-4598-9a6a-71d351a02815/content","https://solomons.gov.sb/the-el-nino-southern-oscillations-enso-status/","https://unfccc.int/documents/199648","https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/slb01.pdf","https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/marnc1.pdf","https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Final_Palau%20National%20Communication.pdf","https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/SI%20SNC%20FINAL_1-1.pdf","https://weather.gov/media/gum/2026_Western_North_Pacific_Tropical_Cyclone_Outlook_for_the_U.S._Affiliated_Pacific_Islands.pdf","https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-01/pacific-island-nations-battered-by-heavy-rains-and-strong-winds/7061982","https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-16/frost-freezes-crops-in-png-as-el-nino-takes-hold/107134520","https://www.adaptation-undp.org/projects/GCF/marshallislands/water","https://www.agriculture.gov.au/agriculture-land/farm-food-drought/drought/drought-policy/national-drought-agreement","https://www.agriculture.gov.au/agriculture-land/farm-food-drought/drought/future-drought-fund","https://www.agriculture.gov.au/agriculture-land/farm-food-drought/drought/future-drought-fund/regional-drought-resilience-planning","https://www.agriculture.gov.fj/documents/census/VOLUMEIII_GENDERREPORT.pdf","https://www.agriculture.gov.fj/documents/census/VOLUMEI_DESCRIPTIVEANALYSISANDGENERALTABLEREPORT.pdf","https://www.aims.gov.au/information-centre/news-and-stories/extent-and-severity-2016-coral-bleaching-australias-coral-reefs-revealed","https://www.aims.gov.au/research-topics/environmental-issues/coral-bleaching/coral-bleaching-events","https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/countries/fiji","https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/countries/palau","https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/countries/papua-new-guinea","https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/countries/solomon-islands","https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/countries/tuvalu","https://www.anticipation-hub.org/global-overview/countries/vanuatu","https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project98/sh_proj1.html","https://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/dyn/11/questions/QANR5L11QE12800","https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/","https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/archive/20260806-outlook.shtml","https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/","https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall-onset/","https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a008-el-nino-and-australia.shtml","https://www.bom.gov.au/news-and-media/el-nino-what-it-means-for-australias-climate","https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/drought-pacific","https://www.cnmi-cdbgdr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/CNMI-CDBG-MIT-AP-NSA-No.-1-06.13.2023.pdf","https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_2026_10.pdf","https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf","https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/impact_pacific_tools.pdf","https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Pacific%20Region%20Q2%202016%20Climate%20Impacts%20and%20Outlook_FINAL.pdf","https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Pacific%20Region%20Q3%202016%20Climate%20Impacts%20and%20Outlook_FINAL.pdf","https://www.elibrary.imf.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/002/2016/292/article-A001-en.pdf","https://www.fao.org/4/w7447e/pays/ocea9712.htm","https://www.fao.org/4/w7447e/pays/soi9712e.htm","https://www.fao.org/papua-new-guinea/about-us/projects/en","https://www.gov.nu/media-releases/niue-tropical-cyclone-season-2025-2026-summary","https://www.government.pn/government/policies-annexes-and-forms","https://www.government.pn/s/GPI-Policy-Open-Air-Fires.pdf","https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-1998-01-09/html/98-548.htm","https://www.health.gov.fj/fact-sheet-drought-and-health/","https://www.ifrc.org/docs?file=Appeals/15/IBPNG050915.pdf","https://www.ifrc.org/docs?file=appeals/rpts98/fj001.pdf","https://www.laohamutuk.org/DVD/2015/ADBPEMDec2015.pdf","https://www.met.gov.fj/climate-services/early-action-rainfall-watch/","https://www.met.gov.fj/media/climate_product_files/Fiji_Climate_Outlook_August_2026.pdf","https://www.mpi.govt.nz/funding-rural-support/adverse-events/how-we-classify-adverse-events","https://www.mpi.govt.nz/funding-rural-support/adverse-events/preparing-for-el-nino","https://www.nasa.gov/missions/goes/amos-was-20p-southern-pacific-ocean/","https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-37713-1","https://www.naurumet.com/climate","https://www.pacificmet.net/news/el-nino-conditions-confirmed-sprep-urges-coordinated-regional-response","https://www.pacificmet.net/news/milestone-tokelau-first-national-climate-outlook-forum-convened","https://www.pacificmet.net/rcc/climate-monitoring","https://www.pacificmet.net/sites/default/files/inline-files/documents/Regional%20statement%20FINAL-%2016Oct2015.pdf","https://www.palaugov.pw/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Drought-Report-Final.pdf","https://www.pmnec.gov.pg/prime-minister-marape-confirms-supplementary-budget-to-address-el-nino-response/","https://www.pmnec.gov.pg/prime-minister-marape-directs-nationwide-preparedness-as-el-nino-threatens-prolonged-dry-season/","https://www.preventionweb.net/media/77824/download","https://www.preventionweb.net/media/83379/download","https://www.preventionweb.net/publication/documents-and-publications/republic-marshall-islands-post-disaster-needs-assessment","https://www.preventionweb.net/publication/tuvalu-national-action-plan-comb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Pitcairn Islands; Tuvalu; all source viewers","field_changed":"Reference passage recovery and presentation","previous_value":"58 mappings without an exact inline passage, including one numerical dataset","new_value":"Ten mappings now expose matching short source extracts; unresolved editions and unsupported claims retain explicit limits","reason":"Recovered official embedded SPC story and same-issue ICU310 text; added qualified policy-context anchors. Existing forecast profiles, evidence IDs and API v1 contract are preserved.","source_urls":["https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-07/ICU-ASO-2026.pdf","https://solomons.gov.sb/the-el-nino-southern-oscillations-enso-status/","https://www.agriculture.gov.au/agriculture-land/farm-food-drought/drought/drought-policy/national-drought-agreement","https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Pacific-Region-EL-NINO-Fact-Sheet_ASamoa_2015-FINAL-v2.pdf","https://www.government.pn/government/policies-annexes-and-forms","https://www.spc.int/updates/blog/dynamic-story/2026/09/four-funafuti-communities-built-their-own-water-backup-just-as"]},{"change_id":"CHG044","change_date":"2026-10-12","jurisdiction":"Pacific partner integration and source review","field_changed":"COD coverage, source passages and support scope","previous_value":"4 COD locations; 47 original-passage gaps; some legacy verification labels","new_value":"79 COD locations across 8 countries; 25 original passages recovered; 6 separately labelled alternatives; 16 claims still need original material; 22 original archive gaps remain","reason":"Review recovered exact historical PDFs, dated French forecast graphics and original article text; withdrew unsupported observations and numerical probabilities. Stable API v1.1 and evidence IDs retained.","source_urls":["https://gsd.spc.int/sopac/divisionmeeting/doc/10-2%20DRP%20Report.pdf","https://library.sprep.org/sites/default/files/2026-08/Regional-Climate-Watch-27-08-2026-issue1.pdf","https://meteo.pf/fr/climat/previsions-saisonnieres-sur-la-polynesie-francaise","https://meteofrance.com/actualites/el-nino-quels-impacts-sur-les-territoires-doutre-mer"]},{"change_id":"CHG045","change_date":"2026-10-12","jurisdiction":"Pacific regional and global ENSO monitoring","field_changed":"Cross-agency September ocean observation, ENSO persistence and October–December rainfall context","previous_value":"The portal carried NOAA's 8 October official outlook and 9 October ocean briefing but not the separate JMA NINO.3 record or WMO thirteen-centre seasonal synthesis.","new_value":"Four Grade A records add JMA's preliminary September NINO.3 +4.0°C record, JMA's winter persistence statement, WMO's near-100% persistence through February 2027 and WMO's broad October–December Pacific rainfall pattern.","reason":"Primary official sources add independently defined observations and multi-centre seasonal context. Definitions, baselines, spatial scale and uncertainty are explicit; no local impact, country classification or national warning is inferred or replaced.","source_urls":["https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html","https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/sea-surface-temperatures-reflect-strengthening-el-nino"]},{"change_id":"CHG046","change_date":"2026-10-12","jurisdiction":"Pacific repository source policy; Guam, CNMI, American Samoa, Palau, Samoa, Tuvalu","field_changed":"Source alternatives, user-supplied source passages and availability withdrawals","previous_value":"Two unverified NOAA legacy probabilities withheld; ASPA source image unavailable; two unavailable documents active; Tuvalu original text missing","new_value":"Both NOAA readings disclosed with scale and verification status; reviewed ASPA image; five evidence IDs withdrawn from active sources with audit retained; Tuvalu supplied text labelled with both dates","reason":"User-requested repository policy: retain differing values, explain analytical selection; distinguish shared asset attribution and supplied transcription from independent verification.","source_urls":["https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/NMME/archive/2026080800/prob/images/prob_ensemble_prate_season1.png","https://www.facebook.com/ASPowerAuthority/posts/elnino-waterconservationwith-the-impending-el-ni%C3%B1o-season-forecast-to-be-among-t/1490667859769155/","https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid0t82t7foy1711CcViSDpiLG6fTeeu5VxVkdzPEHsXLsW6UdBdHRFQ8RCR9Y3YXRhzl&id=100063475390732"]},{"change_id":"CHG047","change_date":"2026-10-14","jurisdiction":"Papua New Guinea; Pacific regional source methodology","field_changed":"PNG institutional preparedness, response-financing status and coordination plan; BoM SST monitoring methodology","previous_value":"PNG readiness: A prior drought activation, current DEWS and system-strengthening projects are verified, but no active national pre-financed framework was listed. ABC News reported an additional K500 million government allocation and local preparedness direction; disbursement and implementation require confirmation from official records. The August NEC deck remains a draft proposal: severity maps trigger investigation, not verified need or approved release. PNG anticipatory-action status: Preparedness; trigger finance not verified BoM monitoring records did not yet explain the 13 October dataset transition.","new_value":"PNG now has separate Grade A records for the 12 October directive, described coordination structure, funding-availability statement and planned NSAC meeting, with delivery caveats. BoM's ERSSTv5-to-v6 and GAMSSA/masking update is recorded as methodology only.","reason":"Two dated primary official sources materially improve institutional-preparedness and source-methodology transparency without converting announced actions into verified delivery or changing current climate classifications.","source_urls":["https://www.pmnec.gov.pg/pm-marape-directs-immediate-disaster-relief-action-as-government-makes-funding-available-to-assist-el-nino-affected-communities/","https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/announcements/"]}],"historical_stories":[{"story_id":"american-samoa-2015-16-taimasa-reef-fish","profile_id":"american-samoa","title":"Taimasa low stands exposed reefs as warm-water stress hit Tutuila","event_period":"2015-16 El Nino","location_name":"Pago Pago Harbor and Utulei Beach Park, Tutuila","latitude":-14.277,"longitude":-170.6813,"hazard":"anomalously low sea level · reef exposure · marine heat and ecological stress","hazard_family":"Marine heat / reef","sectors":["coral reefs and coastal ecosystems","fisheries and marine food resources","coastal natural-resource management"],"impact_summary":"NOAA/PEAC reported Taimasa low-stand conditions in American Samoa during the peak and decay of the 2015-16 El Nino, exposing coral reefs through at least the second quarter of 2016. In April, several thousand juvenile rabbitfish died near Utulei Beach Park; the bulletin said warm water was the suspected cause. A later PEAC review found that mean sea level at Pago Pago fell during the first half of 2016 to its lowest level since the first half of 2010 and described lowered sea level as a typical El Nino response in American Samoa.","association_label":"The low-sea-level mechanism is directly linked to El Nino by PEAC observations and retrospective analysis. The rabbitfish cause was reported as suspected warm water, so the mortality is not presented as definitively caused by El Nino or by the low stand.","evidence_grade":"A-","sources":[{"source_title":"Climate Impacts and Outlook: Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region, 1st Quarter 2016","publisher":"NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center and regional partners","publication_date":"2016-02","exact_url":"https://www.weather.gov/media/peac/impacts/Impacts_Q12016.pdf","locator":"Page 1 strong-El-Nino overview, lines 7-25; page 2 Natural Resources, lines 81-90","supports":"Strong El Nino context and initial Taimasa report","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Climate Impacts and Outlook: Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region, 2nd Quarter 2016","publisher":"NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center and regional partners; hosted by Drought.gov","publication_date":"2016-05","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Pacific%20Region%20Q2%202016%20Climate%20Impacts%20and%20Outlook_FINAL.pdf","locator":"Page 1 lines 8-28 and 37-65; page 2 Natural Resources, lines 86-95; image caption, lines 150-154","supports":"Low sea level, exposed reefs, April rabbitfish mortality, suspected warm-water cause, and exact Utulei location","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Climate Impacts and Outlook: Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region, 3rd Quarter 2016","publisher":"NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center and regional partners; hosted by Drought.gov","publication_date":"2016-08","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Pacific%20Region%20Q3%202016%20Climate%20Impacts%20and%20Outlook_FINAL.pdf","locator":"Page 2 Natural Resources, lines 89-92","supports":"Continued Taimasa conditions and reef exposure in the second quarter of 2016","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Pacific ENSO Update, 1st Quarter 2017 (Vol. 23, No. 2)","publisher":"Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center, NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific Region","publication_date":"2017-05-15","exact_url":"https://www.weather.gov/media/peac/PEU/PEU_v23_n2.pdf","locator":"American Samoa local summary and Figure AS-1, PDF page 6 / extracted lines 394-409 and 431-437","supports":"First-half-2016 low at Pago Pago and explicit statement that lowered sea level is a typical El Nino response","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"All URLs opened successfully. The embedded Utulei fish-kill photo names a photographer but provides no reuse license, so no photo is supplied.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"american-samoa-2016-cyclone-amos","profile_id":"american-samoa","title":"Cyclone Amos toppled trees and cut power on Tutuila","event_period":"2015-16 El Nino","location_name":"Tutuila, including Pago Pago","latitude":-14.2958,"longitude":-170.7,"hazard":"tropical cyclone · heavy rain · high wind · high surf","hazard_family":"Cyclone / coastal","sectors":["electric power","roads and vegetation","coastal safety","emergency management"],"impact_summary":"Tropical Cyclone Amos brushed American Samoa on 23-24 April 2016. NOAA/PEAC recorded 3.03 inches of rain on Tutuila and reported toppled trees and localized power outages, while NASA relayed National Weather Service warnings for flash flooding and dangerous surf that was forecast to build to 18-22 feet. The storm weakened quickly after passing Pago Pago, and impacts were lighter than feared.","association_label":"During the strong 2015-16 El Nino, PEAC assessed tropical-cyclone odds as elevated in the eastern South Pacific, including American Samoa. This supports an ENSO-conditioned seasonal risk, not deterministic attribution of Amos's formation, path, or local damage.","evidence_grade":"B+","sources":[{"source_title":"Climate Impacts and Outlook: Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region, 2nd Quarter 2016","publisher":"NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center and regional partners; hosted by Drought.gov","publication_date":"2016-05","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Pacific%20Region%20Q2%202016%20Climate%20Impacts%20and%20Outlook_FINAL.pdf","locator":"Page 1 regional overview, lines 22-28 and 64-65; page 2 Facilities and Infrastructure, lines 69-73","supports":"3.03 inches of rain, storm date, toppled trees, localized outages, and lower-than-feared impacts","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Amos (was 20P- Southern Pacific Ocean)","publisher":"NASA Goddard Space Flight Center","publication_date":"2016-04-25","exact_url":"https://www.nasa.gov/missions/goes/amos-was-20p-southern-pacific-ocean/","locator":"April 20-25 updates, especially lines 264-289 and 296-331","supports":"Track past Pago Pago, rapid weakening, and NWS flash-flood/high-surf warnings","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Climate Impacts and Outlook: Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region, 1st Quarter 2016","publisher":"NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center and regional partners","publication_date":"2016-02","exact_url":"https://www.weather.gov/media/peac/impacts/Impacts_Q12016.pdf","locator":"Page 1 strong-El-Nino overview, lines 7-9; page 2 regional outlook, lines 101-108","supports":"Strong El Nino state and elevated eastern-South-Pacific cyclone risk including American Samoa","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"All URLs opened successfully. Because the PEAC PDF says both 'brushed' and 'eye passed over,' the profile uses the conservative wording 'brushed/affected.' No storm image is included because an exact reusable image URL and license were not both verified.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"australia-1998-gbr-palm-island-bleaching","profile_id":"australia","title":"The 1998 El Niño heat pulse killed up to 70% of corals around Palm Island","event_period":"1997-1998 El Niño","location_name":"Palm Island area and the wider Great Barrier Reef, Queensland","latitude":-18.75,"longitude":146.58,"hazard":"marine heatwave · mass coral bleaching · coral mortality","hazard_family":"Marine heat / reef","sectors":["coral reef ecosystems","biodiversity","fisheries","tourism"],"impact_summary":"AIMS reports that surveys of 654 Great Barrier Reef reefs found some bleaching on 74% of inshore reefs and 21% of offshore reefs; 11% of surveyed reefs had severe community bleaching. Fewer than 5% of inshore reefs suffered high coral mortality overall, but up to 70% of corals died in the worst-affected Palm Island area. NOAA Coral Reef Watch places bleaching-level warming on the Great Barrier Reef in February-March 1998 within the 1997-99 ENSO thermal-stress sequence.","association_label":"NOAA documents the progression of 1997-98 El Niño heat stress to the Great Barrier Reef in February-March 1998. AIMS attributes mass bleaching primarily to elevated sea temperature. The sources do not quantify what fraction of mortality was caused by El Niño versus background warming and local conditions.","evidence_grade":"A-","sources":[{"source_title":"Coral bleaching events","publisher":"Australian Institute of Marine Science","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.aims.gov.au/research-topics/environmental-issues/coral-bleaching/coral-bleaching-events","locator":"Section '1997-1998' > 'Great Barrier Reef'","supports":"Historical impact and El Niño context described in this story","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"1997-1999 ENSO and Coral Bleaching Heat Stress Patterns","publisher":"NOAA Coral Reef Watch","publication_date":"2014-05-07","exact_url":"https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/analyses_guidance/enso_bleaching_97-99_ag_20140507.php","locator":"Overview and 1998 section","supports":"","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Coral Bleaching Events 1998 and 2002, Great Barrier Reef","publisher":"Australian Institute of Marine Science, metadata via Research Data Australia","publication_date":"2014","exact_url":"https://researchdata.edu.au/coral-bleaching-events-barrier-reef/1314820","locator":"Full description and lineage","supports":"","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"The AIMS page, NOAA Coral Reef Watch page, and Australian Research Data record opened successfully on 2026-08-31. The AIMS page is an undated living synthesis, so publication_date is null. Survey dates come from the AIMS dataset metadata. Palm Island's 70% figure is explicitly the worst local outcome and is not generalized reef-wide.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"australia-2016-northern-gbr-mass-bleaching","profile_id":"australia","title":"The 2015-16 El Niño helped drive record bleaching across the northern Great Barrier Reef","event_period":"2015-2016 El Niño","location_name":"Far northern Great Barrier Reef between Cape York and Port Douglas, Queensland","latitude":-13.5,"longitude":144.5,"hazard":"marine heatwave · mass coral bleaching · coral mortality","hazard_family":"Marine heat / reef","sectors":["coral reef ecosystems","biodiversity","fisheries","tourism"],"impact_summary":"AIMS says the share of reefs experiencing extreme bleaching—more than 60% of corals on an individual reef bleaching—was over four times the 1998 or 2002 share. Damage was most severe along the northernmost 1,000 km, where virtually every coral species was affected. AIMS' event synthesis reports severe bleaching on 38% of surveyed reefs, mostly in the northern Reef, and an estimated 22% coral mortality across the entire Great Barrier Reef as of June 2016.","association_label":"AIMS states that the unusually warm water resulted from the exceptionally strong 2015-16 El Niño compounded by rising baseline temperatures from global warming. It does not partition a mortality fraction between those drivers.","evidence_grade":"A","sources":[{"source_title":"Extent and severity of 2016 coral bleaching on Australia's coral reefs revealed","publisher":"Australian Institute of Marine Science","publication_date":"2017-03-16","exact_url":"https://www.aims.gov.au/information-centre/news-and-stories/extent-and-severity-2016-coral-bleaching-australias-coral-reefs-revealed","locator":"Opening attribution paragraphs and paragraphs comparing 2016 with 1998/2002 and describing the northernmost 1,000 km","supports":"Historical impact and El Niño context described in this story","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Coral bleaching events","publisher":"Australian Institute of Marine Science","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://www.aims.gov.au/research-topics/environmental-issues/coral-bleaching/coral-bleaching-events","locator":"Section '2016' > 'Great Barrier Reef'","supports":"","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"Both AIMS pages opened successfully on 2026-08-31. The 22% mortality figure is for the entire Great Barrier Reef and the 38% severe-bleaching figure is for surveyed reefs; neither is presented as the far-north-only percentage. The source is tied to a peer-reviewed Nature study.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"cok-1997-manihiki-cyclone-martin-01","profile_id":"cook-islands","title":"Cyclone Martin destroyed northern-island food crops and threatened Manihiki's lagoon livelihoods","event_period":"1997-1998 El Nino","location_name":"Manihiki, Pukapuka and Rakahanga, Northern Cook Islands; Manihiki was reported as worst affected","latitude":-10.4,"longitude":-161,"hazard":"Tropical Cyclone Martin, storm surge and destructive winds during the 1997-98 El Nino season","hazard_family":"Cyclone / coastal","sectors":["agriculture","food security","fisheries","black pearl aquaculture","water supply","humanitarian response"],"impact_summary":"FAO reported that food crops were destroyed on Pukapuka, Manihiki and Rakahanga after Tropical Cyclone Martin struck on 1 November 1997, with Manihiki worst affected. Lagoon degradation on Manihiki threatened fishing and black-pearl cultivation, a major export and income source. The same update says nine tonnes of locally sourced food, water, medical supplies and clothing were dispatched to Manihiki on 4 November. A later peer-reviewed historical analysis reports 19 deaths, 200 injuries, about 700 people affected, and damage to 90% of properties on Manihiki; those human-impact figures should be cited to that paper, not to the FAO crop bulletin.","association_label":"Martin occurred during the exceptionally strong 1997-98 El Nino. PEAC reported that the Cook Islands experienced three significantly destructive storm episodes that season. This establishes seasonal co-occurrence and an east-shifted regional cyclone-risk context; it is not event attribution and does not establish that El Nino caused Martin or its losses.","evidence_grade":"A","sources":[{"source_title":"FAO/GIEWS Foodcrops & Shortages 12/97 - Oceania: Cook Islands","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Global Information and Early Warning System","publication_date":"1997-11-28","exact_url":"https://www.fao.org/4/w7447e/pays/ocea9712.htm","locator":"Cook Islands entry, lines/paragraphs headed 'COOK ISLANDS (28 November)'","supports":"Historical impact and El Niño context described in this story","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Historical Tropical Cyclone Activity and Impacts in the Cook Islands","publisher":"Pacific Science, University of Hawai'i Press","publication_date":"2008","exact_url":"https://scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/0b66f723-b3b9-4598-9a6a-71d351a02815/content","locator":"Cyclone Martin/Manihiki discussion: 19 deaths, 200 injured, 700 affected and 90% of properties damaged","supports":"","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Pacific ENSO Update - 1st Quarter 1998 - Vol. 4 No. 1","publisher":"Pacific ENSO Applications Center, University of Hawai'i","publication_date":"1998-Q1","exact_url":"https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/MET/Enso/peu/update.dir/Update-1stQtr98.html","locator":"Opening El Nino status and regional storm summary: Cook Islands and French Polynesia each had three significantly destructive storm episodes in the 1997-98 season","supports":"","verification_status":"Indexed / access limited"}],"verification_note":"The FAO HTML page opened successfully on 2026-08-31 and exposes the crop, lagoon-livelihood and relief-dispatch statements. The peer-reviewed paper and PEAC page were independently indexed with the cited figures and seasonal statement.","photo":{"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2c/Cyclone_Martin_1997.png","source_page":"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cyclone_Martin_1997.png","creator":"HURSAT / NASA","licence":"Public domain in the United States (NASA work), as stated on the Wikimedia Commons file page","caption":"Cyclone Martin near peak intensity on 31 October 1997. Satellite image; it is not a photograph of impacts on Manihiki."},"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"fsm-1997-98-pohnpei-drought-01","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","title":"Pohnpei rainfall collapsed as water rationing and outer-island relief followed","event_period":"1997-1998 El Niño","location_name":"Kolonia and Pohnpei Island, with Pingelap and Nukuoro observations; OCHA's later relief estimate also covers affected outer islands of Pohnpei, Chuuk, and Yap states","hazard":"severe drought · depleted surface water · atoll-well salinization risk · elevated wildfire conditions","hazard_family":"Drought / water scarcity","sectors":["water supply","food security","agriculture","forestry and fire","humanitarian response"],"impact_summary":"In January 1998, Kolonia received 0.64 inches of rain (5% of normal), Pingelap 0.47 inches (4%), and Nukuoro 0.74 inches (5%). PEAC reported water rationing in Kolonia, dried streams, very low rivers, drying forest and high fire potential; atoll wells faced salinity risk. By 27 March, OCHA reported water rations for affected outer islands of Pohnpei, Chuuk, and Yap, estimated about 28,800 people across those affected outer islands needed relief, and reported stressed taro and depleted food supplies. The 28,800 figure is a three-state outer-island total, not a Pohnpei-only count.","association_label":"PEAC explicitly described the extremely strong 1997-98 El Niño and linked suppressed rain-bearing convection to regional drought; OCHA described the FSM drought as caused by El Niño.","evidence_grade":"B","sources":[{"source_title":"Pacific ENSO Update — 1st Quarter 1998, Vol. 4 No. 1","publisher":"Pacific ENSO Applications Center, University of Hawaiʻi; FSM observations credited to the University of Guam Water and Energy Research Institute","publication_date":"1998","exact_url":"https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/MET/Enso/peu/update.dir/Update-1stQtr98.html","locator":"CURRENT CONDITIONS; Summary of Regional Storms, Drought, and SOI Conditions; LOCAL VARIABILITY SUMMARIES > MICRONESIA (FSM) > Pohnpei State","supports":"Historical impact and El Niño context described in this story","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"FSM El Niño Drought OCHA Situation Report No. 1","publisher":"United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs","publication_date":"1998-03-27","exact_url":"https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/micronesia-federated-states/fsm-el-ni%C3%B1o-drought-ocha-situation-report-no-1","locator":"Numbered situation overview, paragraphs 1-5","supports":"","verification_status":"Indexed / access limited"},{"source_title":"El Niño 2015/2016: Impact Outlook and Policy Implications","publisher":"United Nations ESCAP and Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System","publication_date":"2015-12-02","exact_url":"https://repository.unescap.org/bitstreams/3cc6b346-17de-4d55-aa5f-6b02bc8cd24b/download","locator":"Section 4.2, Table 1, Federated States of Micronesia row","supports":"","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"The PEAC page opened successfully on 2026-08-31 and directly exposes the rainfall and Pohnpei impact text. The 27 March OCHA endpoint is live and indexed but returned HTTP 403 to the automated reader; the 28,800 estimate is therefore attributed only to OCHA, while ESCAP independently corroborates water rationing and taro/food stress, not that population figure. PEAC identifies the issue as Q1 1998 but gives no exact publication day.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"fsm-2015-16-yap-chuuk-outer-islands-drought-01","profile_id":"federated-states-of-micronesia","title":"Outer-island drinking water fell below two weeks as FSM mobilized supply vessels","event_period":"2015-2016 El Niño","location_name":"Yap Outer Islands and the Western Islands/Northwest Region of Chuuk State; assessments explicitly included Ngulu and Eauripik","hazard":"prolonged drought · acute drinking-water shortage","hazard_family":"Drought / water scarcity","sectors":["water supply","humanitarian response","transport and logistics"],"impact_summary":"An FSM government release said residents of four unnamed Yap Outer Islands had drinking-water supplies expected to last no more than two weeks. HAPILMOHOL 1 left Colonia, Yap, on 2 March with more than 300 cases of bottled water; MS MICRONESIAN NAVIGATOR left Pohnpei on 5 March with about 4,000 cases for western Chuuk and Yap outer islands; and MS CAROLINE VOYAGER was scheduled to leave Weno on 8 March with more than 1,000 cases for the rest of Chuuk's Northwest region. NOAA later reported February-April rainfall at 35% of normal in Yap and 71% in Chuuk, a critically low Yap reservoir, and exceptional drought across much of FSM. A joint UN presentation reported about 100,000 people affected nationally as of March-April 2016; that is not an island-level count.","association_label":"The FSM release repeatedly identifies an El Niño drought; NOAA states the quarter remained in an El Niño climate state with widespread drought; the joint UN presentation places the impacts within the 2015-16 El Niño response.","evidence_grade":"A","sources":[{"source_title":"The Federated States of Micronesia confronts the effects of El Niño","publisher":"Government of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM Information Services)","publication_date":"2016-03-08","exact_url":"https://myfsm.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-federated-states-of-micronesia.html","locator":"Paragraphs beginning 'The Patrol Boat FSS MICRONESIA...' and 'The Yap State field trip vessel, HAPILMOHOL 1...'","supports":"Historical impact and El Niño context described in this story","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Climate Impacts and Outlook: Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region, 2nd Quarter 2016","publisher":"NOAA and Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center partners","publication_date":"2016-05","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Pacific%20Region%20Q2%202016%20Climate%20Impacts%20and%20Outlook_FINAL.pdf","locator":"Page 1, Regional Climate Overview; page 2, Water Resources","supports":"","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"El Niño: Humanitarian Response in Asia and the Pacific — Impact and Interventions","publisher":"OCHA, United Nations ESCAP, and UNDP","publication_date":"2016-06-07","exact_url":"https://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/El%20Nino%20Presentation_Setting%20the%20Context%20(OCHA-ESCAP-UNDP).pdf","locator":"Slide headed 'Impact on people': FSM — 100,000 people affected by drought","supports":"","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"The archived government release opened successfully on 2026-08-31 and contains the dates, quantities, destinations, and two-week water statement. NOAA and UN PDFs also opened. The more-than-1,000-case CAROLINE VOYAGER movement was scheduled, not confirmed delivered. The government release does not name the four critically short Yap Outer Islands; Ngulu and Eauripik are assessment stops and are not assumed to be two of them.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"fj-1997-98-elnino-drought-west-north","profile_id":"fiji","title":"Fiji's 1997-98 El Niño drought directly affected about 220,000 people and battered agriculture","event_period":"1997-1998 El Niño","location_name":"Nadi station anchor; worst-affected footprint reported for western Viti Levu, western Vanua Levu, and the Yasawa group","latitude":-17.75,"longitude":177.45,"hazard":"meteorological drought · hydrological drought · agricultural drought","hazard_family":"Drought / water scarcity","sectors":["water and WASH","sugar and agriculture","food security","livelihoods","public health"],"impact_summary":"Fiji's Ministry of Health calls this the country's worst drought of the twentieth century, says it warranted a national emergency, and estimates that about 48,000 households (about 220,000 people) were directly affected. A peer-reviewed Pacific drought synthesis records 883.5 mm at Nadi against a 2,049.4 mm long-term average, a 57% shortfall. The same synthesis reports about US$53 million in sugar-industry losses, US$8 million in other agriculture and livestock losses, about US$63 million in total agricultural loss, and a US$22 million government Crop Rehabilitation Programme. Those source estimates are retained separately because US$53 million plus US$8 million does not exactly reconcile with the reported US$63 million total.","association_label":"Fiji Health says almost all Fiji droughts have been associated with El Niño and lists 1997 among the El Niño years. The peer-reviewed study selected the episode as an NMHS-identified drought associated with the 1997-98 El Niño and used SCOPIC rainfall diagnostics.","evidence_grade":"A-","sources":[{"source_title":"Fact Sheet - Drought and Health","publisher":"Fiji Ministry of Health and Medical Services","publication_date":"2014-09-08","exact_url":"https://www.health.gov.fj/fact-sheet-drought-and-health/","locator":"Overview, especially the paragraphs identifying El Niño-associated droughts and the September 1997-1998 emergency and affected-household estimate","supports":"Historical impact and El Niño context described in this story","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Historical and future drought impacts in the Pacific islands and atolls","publisher":"Climatic Change (Springer Nature)","publication_date":"2021-05-18","exact_url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03112-1","locator":"Table 1, pp. 6-8; section 3.3.5, pp. 11-12","supports":"","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"FIJI: DROUGHT, Information Bulletin No. 1","publisher":"International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies","publication_date":"1998-10-16","exact_url":"https://www.ifrc.org/docs?file=appeals/rpts98/fj001.pdf","locator":"PDF p. 1, The Disaster, first three paragraphs; PDF p. 2, Needs","supports":"IFRC’s 16 October 1998 bulletin estimated 270,000 people affected by Fiji’s drought and said up to half the sugar-cane crop could not be harvested; it described severe income and food impacts on cane-dependent families.","verification_status":"Original document checked; source-specific historical account"}],"verification_note":"The Fiji Health page opened successfully on 2026-08-31. It displays a structured date field of 08/09/14 and a conflicting header string ('Nov, Sun, 2014'); 2014-09-08 is used with this caveat. The peer-reviewed Springer article and PDF also opened. The original IFRC bulletin dated 16 October 1998 was recovered and checked in v149. Its separate estimate of 270,000 affected people is retained as the IFRC account and is not substituted for the Ministry of Health estimate of about 220,000 in this summary. Nadi is a station proxy; national and regional quantities are not presented as Nadi-only.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"fj-2014-16-drought-into-elnino-nadi","profile_id":"fiji","title":"A pre-existing Nadi drought overlapped the 2015-16 El Niño as water shortages spread","event_period":"2014-2016 drought overlapping the 2015-2016 El Niño","location_name":"Nadi, Western Division station anchor; reported water shortages extended to outer islands and remote rural areas without piped water","latitude":-17.75,"longitude":177.45,"hazard":"meteorological drought · water shortage · agricultural drought","hazard_family":"Drought / water scarcity","sectors":["water and WASH","sugar and agriculture","food security","livelihoods"],"impact_summary":"By December 2015, UN ESCAP/RIMES reported that at least 30,000 people were affected by drought, the sugar-cane crop was down 25%, and water shortages were occurring in many parts of Fiji, especially outer islands and remote rural areas without piped water. The peer-reviewed SCOPIC synthesis records 2,379.2 mm at Nadi against a 3,458.3 mm long-term average during the 23-month station drought, a 31% shortfall. The 30,000-person and 25% crop figures are national snapshots, not Nadi-specific.","association_label":"The station drought began in neutral ENSO and later overlapped the strong El Niño. UN ESCAP described the evolving El Niño as already causing Fiji water shortages, but the entire 23-month drought must not be attributed to El Niño.","evidence_grade":"B+","sources":[{"source_title":"El Niño 2015/2016: Impact Outlook and Policy Implications","publisher":"United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific and Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System","publication_date":"2015-12-02","exact_url":"https://repository.unescap.org/bitstreams/3cc6b346-17de-4d55-aa5f-6b02bc8cd24b/download","locator":"Table 1, Fiji row, PDF p. 11 (parser P10); policy-response text on emergency outer-island water deliveries, printed p. 15","supports":"Historical impact and El Niño context described in this story","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Historical and future drought impacts in the Pacific islands and atolls","publisher":"Climatic Change (Springer Nature)","publication_date":"2021-05-18","exact_url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03112-1","locator":"Table 1, pp. 7-8; section 3.4, pp. 11-12","supports":"","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"The 21-page UN ESCAP/RIMES PDF and the Springer article opened successfully on 2026-08-31. The drought's neutral-ENSO onset and Cyclone Winston termination are explicit confounders; neither the title nor summary claims that El Niño initiated the full station drought.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"pyf-1998-leeward-islands-alan-01","profile_id":"french-polynesia","title":"Alan's torrential rain triggered deadly landslides across the Leeward Islands","event_period":"1997-1998 El Nino","location_name":"Leeward Islands, especially Taha'a and Ra'iatea; rainfall observations also reported for Bora Bora and Huahine","latitude":-16.75,"longitude":-151.45,"hazard":"Tropical Depression/Storm Alan; torrential rainfall, violent winds, landslides and mudflows during the 1997-98 El Nino season","hazard_family":"Flood / heavy rain","sectors":["life and health","housing","transport","water supply","electricity","public services"],"impact_summary":"A contemporary professional meteorological account reported a provisional toll of eight deaths, one missing child and 20 injured after Alan. Torrential rain caused landslides and mudflows, with Taha'a and Ra'iatea described as the two worst-affected islands. Météo-France observations cited in the article recorded 318 mm at Bora Bora in 24 hours, including 108 mm in one hour, and 182 mm at Huahine. The casualty figures were explicitly provisional and should not be silently replaced by later totals without a separately cited source.","association_label":"Alan occurred late in the exceptionally strong 1997-98 El Nino. A contemporaneous regional review described the 1997-98 French Polynesian cyclone season as deeply marked by El Nino, and PEAC reported three significantly destructive storm episodes in French Polynesia that season. This supports seasonal association, not deterministic attribution of Alan or its losses to El Nino.","evidence_grade":"B+","sources":[{"source_title":"Tempete tropicale moderee en Polynesie francaise","publisher":"La Meteorologie / Meteo et Climat; meteorological observations from Meteo-France","publication_date":"1998-09","exact_url":"https://lameteorologie.fr/admin/api/public/api/meteo/website/downloadArticlePDF/meteo_1998_23_97","locator":"La Meteorologie, 8e serie, no. 23, pp. 97-98; PDF pp. 1-2","supports":"Historical impact and El Niño context described in this story","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Zone Pacifique - L'Annee francophone internationale 1999","publisher":"L'Annee francophone internationale; archived by IRD Horizon","publication_date":"1999","exact_url":"https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/pleins_textes_7/b_fdi_53-54/010016528.pdf","locator":"French Polynesia section, printed p. 258 (PDF p. 9): the season was deeply marked by El Nino and the named systems caused an aggregate 27 deaths, more than 50 injuries, and hundreds of destroyed houses/public buildings","supports":"","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Pacific ENSO Update - 1st Quarter 1998 - Vol. 4 No. 1","publisher":"Pacific ENSO Applications Center, University of Hawai'i","publication_date":"1998-Q1","exact_url":"https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/MET/Enso/peu/update.dir/Update-1stQtr98.html","locator":"Opening El Nino status and regional storm summary: French Polynesia and Cook Islands each had three significantly destructive storm episodes that season","supports":"","verification_status":"Indexed / access limited"}],"verification_note":"The two-page PDF opened successfully on 2026-08-31. Rainfall, locations and hazard-process statements are attributed to Meteo-France; casualty figures are described by the author as the press's provisional 27 April 1998 toll.","photo":{"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Alan_1998-04-24_1800Z.png","source_page":"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Alan_1998-04-24_1800Z.png","creator":"GOES-9 GVAR imagery, SSEC/CIMSS, University of Wisconsin-Madison","licence":"Free use with attribution, including redistribution and derivative/commercial use, as stated on the Wikimedia Commons file page","caption":"Tropical Cyclone Alan on 24 April 1998. Satellite image; it does not show landslide damage on the islands."},"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"guam-1997-98-paka-to-big-drought","profile_id":"guam","title":"From Super Typhoon Paka to the Big Drought: Guam's 1997-98 El Nino whiplash","event_period":"1997-98 El Nino","location_name":"Guam territory-wide; Paka's greatest wind damage was in the northern two-thirds of the island","latitude":13.4443,"longitude":144.7937,"hazard":"tropical cyclone · high wind · heavy rain and coastal surge · post-El Nino drought · wildfire","hazard_family":"Compound / mixed","sectors":["housing and public infrastructure","emergency management","water resources","terrestrial ecosystems and fire management"],"impact_summary":"Super Typhoon Paka struck Guam on 16 December 1997 with torrential rain, destructive wind, high surf, and tidal surge, prompting a presidential major-disaster declaration; NOAA's post-storm analysis found significant damage and more than seven hours of typhoon-force wind over much of the northern two-thirds of the island. The climate then flipped into the post-peak El Nino drought of 1998: later official summaries report about 60 inches of annual rain and that more than 12% of Guam's land area was scorched by brush fires. University of Guam researchers say the drought heightened concern about freshwater availability and helped spur Guam's long-term hydrologic survey and monitoring programs.","association_label":"NOAA identifies a strong ENSO event as already underway when an equatorial westerly wind burst generated the twin cyclones Paka and Pam. Post-peak drought is a well-established Guam El Nino response and is explicitly labeled as such by PEAC and University of Guam sources. The record does not claim that El Nino alone caused Paka's landfall or damage.","evidence_grade":"A","sources":[{"source_title":"SUPER TYPHOON PAKA'S (1997) SURFACE WINDS OVER GUAM","publisher":"NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Hurricane Research Division","publication_date":"1998-08-17","exact_url":"https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project98/sh_proj1.html","locator":"Sections 1-2 and 5: report date and investigators; storm history; lines describing strong ENSO, the westerly wind burst, significant damage, and the duration of typhoon-force winds","supports":"ENSO context and mechanism; Paka wind exposure and significant damage","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Territory of Guam; Major Disaster and Related Determinations","publisher":"Federal Emergency Management Agency, Federal Register via U.S. Government Publishing Office","publication_date":"1998-01-09","exact_url":"https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-1998-01-09/html/98-548.htm","locator":"63 FR 1472-1473, FEMA-1193-DR, especially the declaration at lines 19-45","supports":"Official disaster status and hazard description for Paka","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Special Edition ENSO Bulletin","publisher":"Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center, NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific Region","publication_date":"2010-02-01","exact_url":"https://www.weather.gov/media/peac/PEU/PEUSB12010.pdf","locator":"Page 2, Guam/CNMI section, lines 37-45 in extracted text","supports":"Retrospective statement that 12% of Guam's land area burned in the 1998 drought and explanation of post-El Nino dryness","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Hydrologic Analysis of the Deep Observation Wells in the Northern Guam Lens Aquifer","publisher":"Guam Hydrologic Survey / Water and Environmental Research Institute, University of Guam","publication_date":"2026-05-12","exact_url":"https://guamhydrologicsurvey.uog.edu/2026/05/12/weri-technical-report-189/","locator":"Statement of Water Resource Concern, lines 382-385; ENSO and rainfall discussion, lines 421 and 500","supports":"1998 post-peak El Nino drought, approximately 60 inches annual rainfall, water-resource concern, and institutional response","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"All four URLs opened successfully. Quantities are kept in the units and scope reported by the sources. Paka is presented as ENSO-conditioned, not individually attributed to ENSO.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"gum-1997-paka-heavy-rain-01","profile_id":"guam","title":"Paka delivered 20 inches of rain in 48 hours and severe damage across northern Guam","event_period":"1997-98 El Nino","location_name":"Northern two-thirds of Guam, including Andersen Air Force Base and northern populated areas","latitude":13.584,"longitude":144.924,"hazard":"tropical cyclone · extreme wind · heavy rain · coastal surge and high surf","hazard_family":"Flood / heavy rain","sectors":["housing","public infrastructure and utilities","vegetation","emergency management"],"impact_summary":"NOAA's service assessment recorded 20 inches of rain over Guam in 48 hours. Several thousand people were made homeless, vegetation damage was described as impressive because of the long-duration winds and heavy rain, and contemporary damage estimates exceeded US$600 million. NOAA's post-storm wind analysis found significant damage concentrated in the northern two-thirds of Guam. The damage total is multi-hazard and must not be presented as rainfall-only loss.","association_label":"NOAA states that the strong 1997 ENSO event was well underway when Paka formed and that an equatorial westerly wind burst generated twin cyclones Paka and Pam. This is a physically specific ENSO-era formation context, but it does not demonstrate that El Nino alone caused Paka's Guam track, intensity or damage.","evidence_grade":"A","sources":[{"source_title":"Super Typhoon Paka, December 2 thru 21, 1997: Service Assessment","publisher":"United States National Weather Service, Pacific Region / NOAA","publication_date":"1998-01-01","exact_url":"https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/26766/noaa_26766_DS1.pdf","locator":"Printed page 11 (PDF page 17): 20 inches of rain in 48 hours and several thousand people made homeless; printed page 16 (PDF page 22): vegetation damage, heavy rain, and damage estimates above US$600 million.","supports":"Rainfall total, impact footprint, homelessness, vegetation damage and multi-hazard damage estimate","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Super Typhoon Paka's (1997) Surface Winds over Guam","publisher":"NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Hurricane Research Division","publication_date":"1998-08-17","exact_url":"https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project98/sh_proj1.html","locator":"Sections 1-3 and Appendix D: strong ENSO context and westerly-wind-burst formation (paragraphs 27-33), significant damage in the northern two-thirds (paragraphs 38-40), and heavy rain in the outer eyewall (Appendix D).","supports":"ENSO-era formation context, subnational damage footprint and heavy-rain exposure","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"Classify this as a heavy-rain/tropical-cyclone story rather than a quantified flood-loss story. The US$600 million estimate is for total Paka damage, dominated by a combination of wind and rain, and is not attributable to rainfall alone.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"guam-2015-16-drought-crops-grass-fires","profile_id":"guam","title":"Drought yellowed crops and increased grass fires on Guam","event_period":"2015-16 El Nino","location_name":"Guam territory-wide","latitude":13.4443,"longitude":144.7937,"hazard":"drought · vegetation stress · grass fire","hazard_family":"Drought / water scarcity","sectors":["agriculture","water resources","fire and public safety","terrestrial ecosystems"],"impact_summary":"During the peak of the 2015-16 El Nino, Guam received 66% of normal rainfall from November 2015 through January 2016 and 65% from February through April. NOAA/PEAC advised Guam and the CNMI to begin conserving water as drought set in and reported significant yellowing of food crops and vegetation together with an increase in grass fires. The May 2016 outlook classified the continuing drought in Guam and the CNMI as moderate.","association_label":"The contemporaneous regional bulletins explicitly describe a strong El Nino climate state, worsening or widespread drought, and continued El Nino effects. The sources do not provide a formal fractional-attribution analysis.","evidence_grade":"A-","sources":[{"source_title":"Climate Impacts and Outlook: Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region, 1st Quarter 2016","publisher":"NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center and regional partners","publication_date":"2016-02","exact_url":"https://www.weather.gov/media/peac/impacts/Impacts_Q12016.pdf","locator":"Page 1 regional overview, lines 7-21 and 55-60; page 2 Water Resources and Agriculture, lines 69-90","supports":"Strong El Nino context, 66% rainfall, water-conservation advice, crop/vegetation yellowing, and increased grass fires","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Climate Impacts and Outlook: Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region, 2nd Quarter 2016","publisher":"NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center and regional partners; hosted by Drought.gov","publication_date":"2016-05","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Pacific%20Region%20Q2%202016%20Climate%20Impacts%20and%20Outlook_FINAL.pdf","locator":"Page 1 regional overview, lines 8-24 and 37-65; page 2 outlook, lines 93-113","supports":"65% rainfall for February-April, moderate drought, and persistence of El Nino effects","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"Both official PDFs opened successfully. The impact wording is territorial because the bulletin groups observations at Guam scale and does not name individual villages.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"kir-2014-15-tuna-revenue-01","profile_id":"kiribati","title":"Tuna shifted east as Kiribati catch and license revenue surged","event_period":"2014-2016 El Niño","location_name":"Kiribati Exclusive Economic Zone","hazard":"ENSO-related ocean-temperature change · eastward tuna redistribution","hazard_family":"Marine heat / reef","sectors":["offshore fisheries","public finance","fishing access revenue"],"impact_summary":"Just over 700,000 tonnes of tuna were caught in Kiribati waters in 2014, more than twice the 2013 catch. In December 2015, the Asian Development Bank estimated 2015 fishing-license revenue would reach A$150 million—about twice the amount projected at the start of the year and nearly 80% of GDP—while access rights were selling for more than US$15,000 per vessel day. Reuters linked the eastward shift from Papua New Guinea to El Niño, and the IMF later said the strong El Niño was believed to have attracted tuna to Kiribati's warmer waters. The IMF also cautioned that El Niño and the Vessel Day Scheme's management and pricing effects could not be cleanly separated.","association_label":"The event timing, catch shift, fisheries expert attribution, and later IMF assessment support an El Niño contribution, but the IMF explicitly cautions that fisheries-management effects cannot be clearly delineated; El Niño is not treated as the sole cause of revenue growth.","evidence_grade":"B","sources":[{"source_title":"El Niño is bittersweet for disappearing Kiribati as it battles climate change","publisher":"Reuters / Thomson Reuters Foundation","publication_date":"2015-12-03","exact_url":"https://news.trust.org/item/20151203061953-f2akb","locator":"Paragraphs on tuna migration, 2014 catch, daily access price, and ADB's 2015 license-revenue estimate","supports":"Historical impact and El Niño context described in this story","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Kiribati: 2016 Article IV Consultation—Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kiribati","publisher":"International Monetary Fund","publication_date":"2016-09-09","exact_url":"https://www.elibrary.imf.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/002/2016/292/article-A001-en.pdf","locator":"Country Report 16/292, staff report printed p. 8 (PDF p. 12), footnote 4","supports":"IMF considered strong El Niño a likely contributor to tuna concentration and increased Vessel Day demand, while stating the separate contributions could not be clearly delineated.","verification_status":"Original document checked; source-specific historical account"},{"source_title":"Pacific Economic Monitor — December 2015","publisher":"Asian Development Bank","publication_date":"2015-12","exact_url":"https://www.laohamutuk.org/DVD/2015/ADBPEMDec2015.pdf","locator":"Country Updates, Kiribati: A$140 million 2014 revenue; A$150 million 2015 projection; A$57.7 million expected fiscal surplus","supports":"","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"The Reuters/Thomson Reuters Foundation page opened successfully on 2026-08-31 and exposes all quoted quantities and named-source attribution. The original IMF report was recovered and checked in v149; staff report page 8, footnote 4 corroborates the qualified El Niño mechanism and the limit on separating it from Vessel Day Scheme effects. ADB's December 2015 Pacific Economic Monitor independently gives the A$150 million estimate, but the accessible copy located was a third-party mirror. The medium confidence rating preserves the IMF's management-versus-climate caveat.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"kir-2015-16-kiritimati-coral-01","profile_id":"kiribati","title":"El Niño bleaching stripped more than 80% of Kiritimati's coral cover","event_period":"2015-2016 El Niño","location_name":"Nine forereef sites around Kiritimati (Christmas Island), Line Islands","latitude":1.8667,"longitude":-157.4,"hazard":"marine heatwave · mass coral bleaching · coral mortality","hazard_family":"Marine heat / reef","sectors":["coral reef ecosystems","marine biodiversity","fisheries habitat","coastal protection ecosystem service"],"impact_summary":"Kiritimati's reefs experienced globally unprecedented heat stress during the 2015-16 El Niño and lost more than 80% of coral cover by the end of the bleaching event. Researchers compared 26 permanent 4 m × 4 m plots at nine forereef sites before and after the event. Live branching-coral density fell 95%. All 26 plots lost surface rugosity, with the mean declining from 2.189 ± 0.452 to 1.730 ± 0.268, and all lost terrain ruggedness, from 0.081 ± 0.021 to 0.053 ± 0.013. Habitat volume fell in 19 of 26 plots, with a maximum net loss of 0.990 m³.","association_label":"The peer-reviewed article explicitly calls this the 2015-16 El Niño-induced mass bleaching event and analyzes before-and-after permanent plots exposed to the associated heat stress.","evidence_grade":"A","sources":[{"source_title":"Effects of bleaching-associated mass coral mortality on reef structural complexity across a gradient of local disturbance","publisher":"Scientific Reports, Nature Portfolio","publication_date":"2019-02-21","exact_url":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-37713-1","locator":"Abstract; Introduction; Methods—Study site and design; Results and Discussion on 26 permanent photoquadrats, rugosity, ruggedness, habitat volume, and branching-coral decline","supports":"Historical impact and El Niño context described in this story","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"PubMed Central full-text record for the Scientific Reports article","publisher":"U.S. National Library of Medicine","publication_date":"2019-02-21","exact_url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6385266/","locator":"Full text; study design and quantitative results","supports":"","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Pacific Climate Update","publisher":"NOAA Coral Reef Watch","publication_date":"2016-05-03","exact_url":"https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/analyses_guidance/pacific_climate_updates/pacific_climate_update_coral_reef_watch_20160503.pdf","locator":"Kiribati section: temperatures as high as 31.4°C, widespread mortality, El Niño attribution","supports":"","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"The article URL and open-access PubMed Central record were verified on 2026-08-31; search indexing and the full article text exposed the quoted quantities. NOAA Coral Reef Watch independently reported persistent temperatures up to 31.4°C, widespread coral mortality in Kiribati, and an explicit tie to the strong El Niño. Sectors beyond reef ecology are limited to habitat and ecosystem services; no measured catch or household loss is claimed.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"nauru-historical-evidence-gap","profile_id":"nauru","title":"Nauru: historical impact evidence gap","event_period":"Historical El Niño episodes","location_name":"Nauru","hazard":"Evidence gap","hazard_family":"Evidence gap","sectors":[],"impact_summary":"No country-specific historical impact story has yet passed the source, location and El Niño-association checks. This is not evidence that no impact occurred.","association_label":"Country-specific observed impact not verified from the reviewed sources.","evidence_grade":"GAP","sources":[],"verification_note":"Retain as a visible research gap until an authoritative or well-triangulated source is located.","photo":null,"is_gap":true},{"story_id":"new-caledonia-2015-ouegoa-water-restrictions","profile_id":"new-caledonia","title":"Ouégoa restricted tap-water use as active El Niño pushed drought to a critical threshold","event_period":"2015-2016 El Niño","location_name":"Commune of Ouégoa, North Province, with particular vigilance requested in Bondé and Paimboas","latitude":-20.35,"longitude":164.433,"hazard":"critical drought · low streamflow · water-supply stress · bushfire risk","hazard_family":"Drought / water scarcity","sectors":["municipal water supply","domestic water use","agriculture and gardens","fire risk management"],"impact_summary":"Ouégoa's mayor declared that the critical drought threshold, together with bushfire danger, was occurring during an active Pacific El Niño episode. The order asked all users to restrict secondary uses such as garden watering and vehicle washing, reduce domestic consumption, repair leaks, and favor rainwater collection and drip irrigation. It applied commune-wide and called for particular vigilance in Bondé, where the supply network was under works, and Paimboas, where two intakes were vulnerable during low flow.","association_label":"The municipal order explicitly places the critical drought threshold in the context of an active El Niño episode and cites joint September conclusions from Météo Nouvelle-Calédonie and IRD.","evidence_grade":"A","sources":[{"source_title":"Arrêté n° 2015-08 du 6 octobre 2015 portant mesures limitatives de la consommation d'eau courante","publisher":"Commune of Ouégoa, published in the Journal officiel de la Nouvelle-Calédonie","publication_date":"2015-12-29","exact_url":"https://mobi-juridoc.gouv.nc/juridoc/jdjonc.nsf/1239F02CAD9101294B257F2F0073A37A/$file/9229.pdf?openelement=","locator":"Journal officiel no. 9229, printed p. 12306; PDF p. 102 (parser P101), Articles 1-5","supports":"Historical impact and El Niño context described in this story","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"The 104-page official Juridoc PDF opened and was text-searchable on 2026-08-31. The record reports an enacted restriction and official critical-drought finding; it does not infer an unsourced number of affected residents, volume deficit, or burned area. No end date is supplied.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"new-zealand-1997-98-eastern-drought-agriculture","profile_id":"new-zealand","title":"The 1997-98 El Niño drought cost New Zealand farms an estimated NZ$425 million","event_period":"1997-1998 El Niño","location_name":"Eastern New Zealand from Canterbury to Bay of Plenty; most extreme pasture impacts in Marlborough, North Canterbury, and parts of Wairarapa and Hawke's Bay","latitude":-41.513,"longitude":173.961,"hazard":"meteorological drought · soil-moisture deficit · heat stress","hazard_family":"Drought / water scarcity","sectors":["pastoral agriculture","dairying","grain","horticulture","water resources"],"impact_summary":"A Ministry of Research, Science and Technology review found greater-than-average drought from Canterbury to Bay of Plenty and called Marlborough the worst-hit region for pasture. On 21 April 1998, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry estimated NZ$256 million in 1997/98 farm-gate losses plus NZ$169 million in 1998/99 carry-over losses, NZ$425 million total. About 45% of national sheep and beef stock numbers were affected. The report also records significant pasture, livestock, grain, fruit, tree, and water-reserve losses.","association_label":"The review says typical El Niño circulation and east-dry/west-wet anomalies were generally present, but other natural variability and unusually high summer temperatures also mattered. It explicitly states that impacts cannot be cleanly separated into El Niño and non-El Niño causes.","evidence_grade":"A","sources":[{"source_title":"The 1997/98 El Niño Event: Impacts, Responses and Outlook for New Zealand","publisher":"Ministry of Research, Science and Technology; prepared by Reid Basher, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research","publication_date":"1998-04","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-06/Reconstituted%20MORST%20El%20Nin%CC%83o%20report.pdf","locator":"Executive Summary, printed pp. 1-2 (PDF pp. 4-5); Climate and Agricultural Economic Impacts, printed pp. 10-12 (PDF pp. 13-15); especially printed p. 11 for the NZ$425 million estimate","supports":"Historical impact and El Niño context described in this story","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"The 31-page PDF opened and was text-searchable on 2026-08-31. It is a June 2026 electronic reconstitution by the original author that states it faithfully represents the April 1998 report, with possible minor typographical differences. The loss estimate includes projected 1998/99 carry-over and is not represented as a same-year cash outlay. Attribution caveats are preserved.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"nzl-1997-98-west-coast-canterbury-flows-01","profile_id":"new-zealand","title":"The same 1997-98 El Nino that dried eastern farms kept western and alpine-fed rivers high and often in flood","event_period":"1997-98 El Nino","location_name":"West Coast and alpine chain of the South Island; Punakaiki and Okarito; Waimakariri, Rakaia and lower Waitaki river systems","latitude":-42.115,"longitude":171.326,"map_points":[{"name":"Punakaiki","latitude":-42.115,"longitude":171.326,"note":"Water surges passed over gravel ridges, removing ground vegetation."},{"name":"Okarito Lagoon","latitude":-43.224,"longitude":170.166,"note":"High flows produced major reworking at lagoon openings."},{"name":"Waimakariri River","latitude":-43.46,"longitude":172.43,"note":"The official review described the Waimakariri and Rakaia as continually flooded."},{"name":"Lower Waitaki River","latitude":-44.96,"longitude":171.15,"note":"Flood warnings were issued while major controlled hydro lakes were full to spilling."}],"hazard":"El Nino-associated enhanced westerlies · above-normal western rainfall · high river flow · river flooding · full and spilling hydro lakes","hazard_family":"Flood / heavy rain","sectors":["freshwater and rivers","wetlands and lagoons","hydroelectricity","flood management"],"impact_summary":"New Zealand's official review of the 1997-98 event reported wet conditions and copious river flows along the West Coast and alpine chain. At Punakaiki, surges passed over gravel ridges; at Okarito, lagoon openings were substantially reworked. Spillover rainfall also kept the Waimakariri and Rakaia high and often in flood, while the main controlled South Island hydro lakes were full to spilling in March and flood warnings were issued for the lower Waitaki. This is a strong subnational counter-story to the eastern drought record: one El Nino season produced simultaneous dry and wet impacts on opposite sides of the ranges.","association_label":"The Ministry/NIWA review explicitly links increased westerlies during El Nino to wet West Coast conditions and copious river flows. The same report cautions that El Nino does not explain all climate anomalies and that impacts cannot be cleanly separated into El Nino and non-El Nino causes.","evidence_grade":"A","sources":[{"source_title":"The 1997/98 El Nino Event: Impacts, Responses and Outlook for New Zealand","publisher":"New Zealand Ministry of Research, Science and Technology; prepared by NIWA","publication_date":"1998-04-01","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-06/Reconstituted%20MORST%20El%20Nin%CC%83o%20report.pdf","locator":"Printed pages 6-7 for the El Nino/westerly rainfall mechanism and uncertainty; printed page 17 (PDF page 20), Water and soils, for Punakaiki, Okarito, Waimakariri, Rakaia, spilling hydro lakes and the lower Waitaki flood warning; Executive Summary printed pages 1-2 for the attribution caveat.","supports":"Event-specific ENSO context, subnational wet/flood observations, hydropower conditions, and attribution limits","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"The impact of El Nino and La Nina on New Zealand's climate","publisher":"Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA","publication_date":"","exact_url":"https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/el-nino-and-la-nina/impact-el-nino-and-la-nina-new-zealands-climate","locator":"Typical El Nino impacts on New Zealand's climate, especially the west-wet/east-dry barrier-effect explanation and the statement that ENSO explains less than 25% of seasonal variance at most locations.","supports":"Current official explanation of the subnational dipole and its limits","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"Use as an observed hydrological precedent, not as a loss estimate. The review records flooding and environmental/hydropower effects but does not provide a monetary flood-loss total.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"niue-1997-98-reticulated-water-buffer","profile_id":"niue","title":"Island-wide reticulated water buffered Niue's 1997–98 drought","event_period":"1997–98 El Niño","location_name":"Niue island-wide","latitude":-19.05,"longitude":-169.92,"hazard":"drought · freshwater-supply stress","hazard_family":"Drought / water scarcity","sectors":["water resources","households","water infrastructure and adaptation"],"impact_summary":"Niue's national IWRM diagnostic says the 1997–98 drought was not severe because all households were connected to the reticulated main water system supplied from the freshwater lens. This is a documented avoided-impact/resilience outcome rather than a disaster-loss story. The same report warns that drought severity still depends on the duration and magnitude of rainfall deficit and notes that economic-cost data for past droughts were unavailable.","association_label":"The government/SOPAC report introduces the case by stating that Niue is vulnerable to ENSO and contrasts the 1982–83 El Niño drought with the subsequent 1997–98 drought. It does not conduct formal event attribution, so the association is framed as ENSO-era context.","evidence_grade":"A-","sources":[{"source_title":"Sustainable Integrated Water Resources and Wastewater Management Project in the Pacific Island Countries: Niue — IWRM Diagnostic Report","publisher":"Government of Niue Public Works Department / SOPAC","publication_date":"2007","exact_url":"https://niue-data.sprep.org/system/files/IWRM%20DIAGNOSTIC%20REPORT-%20niue-%20jan07%202nd.pdf","locator":"Section 3.2 'Island Vulnerability' and section 3.2.1 'Types of disasters,' PDF pp. 20–22","supports":"ENSO context, comparative drought severity, all-household reticulation, freshwater-lens supply and missing economic-cost data","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"The SPREP-hosted PDF opened successfully; the SPREP catalog identifies it as SOPAC Miscellaneous Report 641 (2007). '100%' is an explicit normalization of the report's phrase 'all households,' not a separately measured survey percentage.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"cnmi-1997-paka-rota","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","title":"Super Typhoon Paka damaged homes, infrastructure, and farms on Rota","event_period":"1997-98 El Nino","location_name":"Rota","latitude":14.1509,"longitude":145.2149,"hazard":"tropical cyclone · extreme wind · heavy rain","hazard_family":"Cyclone / coastal","sectors":["housing","public facilities and infrastructure","agriculture","emergency management"],"impact_summary":"Less than a month after Super Typhoon Keith, Paka crossed near Rota with heavy rain and violent wind. The CNMI government's HUD-approved mitigation plan records extensive damage to homes, public facilities, infrastructure, and agriculture and says Rota was declared a major disaster area. NOAA's storm analysis documents that the strong 1997 ENSO event was already underway and that an equatorial westerly wind burst generated the twin cyclones Paka and Pam.","association_label":"The NOAA source provides a physically specific ENSO-era formation mechanism and timing, but it does not attribute Paka's Rota track, intensity, or damage fraction to El Nino alone.","evidence_grade":"A-","sources":[{"source_title":"Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Community Development Block Grant Mitigation (CDBG-MIT) Program: CDBG-MIT Action Plan","publisher":"Northern Marianas Housing Corporation; approved by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development","publication_date":"2023-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.cnmi-cdbgdr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/CNMI-CDBG-MIT-AP-NSA-No.-1-06.13.2023.pdf","locator":"Printed page 23 (PDF page 34), Typhoon History, lines 921-928","supports":"Rota impact sectors, storm description, and major-disaster status","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"SUPER TYPHOON PAKA'S (1997) SURFACE WINDS OVER GUAM","publisher":"NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Hurricane Research Division","publication_date":"1998-08-17","exact_url":"https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project98/sh_proj1.html","locator":"Sections 1-2, especially lines 17-33; Rota observations at lines 52-53","supports":"Paka chronology, Rota exposure, and strong-ENSO/westerly-wind-burst formation context","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"Both URLs opened successfully. The summary omits disputed or source-dependent peak-wind values and avoids single-storm deterministic attribution.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"mnp-1997-paka-rota-heavy-rain-01","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","title":"Paka crossed near Rota with heavy rain and damaged homes, infrastructure and agriculture","event_period":"1997-98 El Nino","location_name":"Rota","latitude":14.1509,"longitude":145.2149,"hazard":"tropical cyclone · heavy rain · extreme wind","hazard_family":"Flood / heavy rain","sectors":["housing","public facilities","infrastructure","agriculture","emergency management"],"impact_summary":"The CNMI government's HUD-approved mitigation plan reports that Paka crossed near Rota with heavy rain and violent wind. Rota was declared a major disaster area, with extensive damage to homes, public facilities, infrastructure and agriculture. The summary deliberately omits disputed extreme-gust values and does not allocate the damage between wind and rainfall.","association_label":"NOAA documents that the strong 1997 ENSO event was already underway and that an equatorial westerly wind burst generated the twin cyclones Paka and Pam. That supports an ENSO-conditioned formation context, not a claim that El Nino alone caused Paka's track, intensity or Rota damage.","evidence_grade":"A-","sources":[{"source_title":"Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands CDBG-MIT Action Plan, Non-Substantial Amendment No. 01","publisher":"Northern Marianas Housing Corporation; approved by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development","publication_date":"2023-06-13","exact_url":"https://www.cnmi-cdbgdr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/CNMI-CDBG-MIT-AP-NSA-No.-1-06.13.2023.pdf","locator":"Printed page 23 (PDF page 34), Typhoon History: Paka's heavy rain, Rota major-disaster status, and damage to homes, public facilities, infrastructure and agriculture.","supports":"Subnational Rota impact and sectoral damage","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Super Typhoon Paka's (1997) Surface Winds over Guam","publisher":"NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Hurricane Research Division","publication_date":"1998-08-17","exact_url":"https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project98/sh_proj1.html","locator":"Sections 1-2 for strong ENSO and westerly-wind-burst context; paragraph 52 for Rota exposure; Appendix D for outer-eyewall heavy rain.","supports":"Storm chronology, Rota exposure and ENSO-era formation context","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"Present as a cyclone/heavy-rain precedent, not a pure flood-loss record. The official plan provides no monetary loss total for Paka on Rota and does not separate wind damage from rain damage.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"cnmi-2015-16-saipan-drought-fires","profile_id":"northern-mariana-islands","title":"El Nino drought stressed crops and kept Saipan in fire weather","event_period":"2015-16 El Nino","location_name":"Saipan; initial water-conservation and vegetation observations were reported for the CNMI generally","latitude":15.1778,"longitude":145.75,"hazard":"drought · vegetation stress · brush and grass fire","hazard_family":"Drought / water scarcity","sectors":["agriculture","water resources","fire and public safety","terrestrial ecosystems"],"impact_summary":"Saipan received 74% of normal rainfall from November 2015 through January 2016. As drought set in, NOAA/PEAC advised Guam and the CNMI to begin conserving water and reported significant yellowing of food crops and vegetation plus more grass fires. Brush and grass fires were commonly observed on Saipan during the first quarter of 2016; May-July rainfall then fell to 53% of normal, and moderate drought was still present in Saipan in the August 2016 regional assessment.","association_label":"Peak drought impacts were reported during a strong El Nino climate state, and NOAA/PEAC warned that El Nino effects would continue through much of 2016. The May-July persistence occurred as the climate transitioned to neutral, so it is treated as a lagged association rather than concurrent El Nino conditions.","evidence_grade":"A-","sources":[{"source_title":"Climate Impacts and Outlook: Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region, 1st Quarter 2016","publisher":"NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center and regional partners","publication_date":"2016-02","exact_url":"https://www.weather.gov/media/peac/impacts/Impacts_Q12016.pdf","locator":"Page 1 regional overview, lines 7-21 and 55-60; page 2 Water Resources and Agriculture, lines 69-90","supports":"Strong El Nino context, Saipan 74% rainfall, conservation advice, vegetation stress, and increased grass fires","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Climate Impacts and Outlook: Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region, 2nd Quarter 2016","publisher":"NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center and regional partners; hosted by Drought.gov","publication_date":"2016-05","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Pacific%20Region%20Q2%202016%20Climate%20Impacts%20and%20Outlook_FINAL.pdf","locator":"Page 1 lines 37-65; page 2 Agriculture and outlook, lines 81-95 and 110-113","supports":"Moderate drought and commonly observed brush/grass fires on Saipan; lingering El Nino effects","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Climate Impacts and Outlook: Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region, 3rd Quarter 2016","publisher":"NOAA/National Weather Service Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center and regional partners; hosted by Drought.gov","publication_date":"2016-08","exact_url":"https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Pacific%20Region%20Q3%202016%20Climate%20Impacts%20and%20Outlook_FINAL.pdf","locator":"Page 1 regional overview and callouts, lines 8-23 and 35-70","supports":"Saipan 53% rainfall for May-July and continuing moderate drought","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"All three PDFs opened successfully. Saipan-specific statements are separated from broader CNMI-wide observations, and the transition to ENSO-neutral is disclosed.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"plw-1997-98-taro-water-fire-01","profile_id":"palau","title":"Record-low March rain erased taro harvests in southern and western Palau","event_period":"1997-1998 El Niño","location_name":"Angaur, Peleliu, western Babeldaob, and multiple other islands","hazard":"severe drought · record-low rainfall · saltwater intrusion · wildfire","hazard_family":"Drought / water scarcity","sectors":["water supply","agriculture","food security","forestry and fire"],"impact_summary":"Palau's national communication says March 1998, the peak of El Niño, had the lowest rainfall on record. Water supplies were depleted, agricultural production fell by more than 50%, and fires burned out of control on many islands. With little irrigation and crops dependent on rainfall, Angaur, Peleliu, and much of western Babeldaob lost 100% of their taro crops during the 1998 ENSO event; the report attributes the crop loss to prolonged drought and saltwater intrusion.","association_label":"The Government of Palau report explicitly labels the 1997-98 episode an El Niño/ENSO event and directly links the rainfall minimum, drought, crop losses, water depletion, and fires to it.","evidence_grade":"A","sources":[{"source_title":"Republic of Palau Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change","publisher":"Government of the Republic of Palau / UNFCCC","publication_date":"2013-09","exact_url":"https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Final_Palau%20National%20Communication.pdf","locator":"PDF page 59, Water Resources > Climatic Impacts; PDF page 66, Food Security: Taro > Climatic Impacts","supports":"Historical impact and El Niño context described in this story","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Palau. Second National Communication","publisher":"UNFCCC document catalogue","publication_date":"2019-08-27","exact_url":"https://unfccc.int/documents/199648","locator":"Document metadata and official attachment","supports":"","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"The official PDF opened and was text-readable on 2026-08-31. The internal report date is September 2013; UNFCCC's document catalogue later lists publication on 2019-08-27. The >50% figure is nationwide agricultural production, while the 100% taro-loss figure is limited to Angaur, Peleliu, and much of western Babeldaob.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"plw-2016-koror-airai-water-01","profile_id":"palau","title":"Koror-Airai water production fell to one-fifth of normal","event_period":"2015-2016 El Niño","location_name":"Koror and Airai, centered on Ngerimel Dam and the Ngerikiil River; rationing also affected parts of Babeldaob and the outer islands of Kayangel, Peleliu, Angaur, and the Southwest Islands","latitude":7.37519,"longitude":134.53104,"hazard":"extreme drought · drinking-water shortage · reservoir depletion","hazard_family":"Drought / water scarcity","sectors":["water supply","public health","education","business and tourism","agriculture","emergency management"],"impact_summary":"A 21 March NOAA report placed Palau at Extreme Drought Level 3 of 4 after Koror received only 17.65 inches over four months, the lowest such total since 1951. Ngerimel Dam was shut and nearly exhausted; Ngerikiil River production fell to 750,000 gallons per day, 19% of its normal 3.8 million, and later to 500,000. Koror-Airai rationing tightened from a four-hour morning window and a five-hour evening window on 12 March to one three-hour window per neighborhood by 29 March. A state of emergency began 22 March. Six Airai well sites were identified with about 120,000 gallons per day potential, and about 20,000 gallons per day were being hauled. After rain, 24-hour service resumed in Koror and Airai on 9 May, although other states still had shortfalls.","association_label":"NOAA described the El Niño-dominated atmosphere as causing widespread Pacific drought and specifically listed Palau's emergency; the Government of Palau report supplies the direct operational chronology and quantities.","evidence_grade":"A","sources":[{"source_title":"Drought Report: Republic of Palau","publisher":"Government of the Republic of Palau, National Emergency Committee","publication_date":"2016-06","exact_url":"https://www.palaugov.pw/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Drought-Report-Final.pdf","locator":"PDF pages 3-8: situation overview, emergency chronology, augmentation and distribution measures","supports":"Historical impact and El Niño context described in this story","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Drought in the Pacific","publisher":"NOAA Climate.gov","publication_date":"2016-04-20","exact_url":"https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/drought-pacific","locator":"Search-indexed summary: El Niño-dominated atmosphere, widespread Pacific drought, Palau state of emergency","supports":"","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"The official government PDF opened and was text-readable on 2026-08-31. Its 80%-of-areas statement and many sector effects are partly prospective, so the summary uses observed water-system quantities and actions. NOAA Climate.gov's page is live and indexed with the explicit El Niño attribution, but its full body requires JavaScript and could not be rendered by the automated reader. The coordinate is approximate, not source-reported.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"png-1997-98-drought-food-water-crisis","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","title":"The 1997 El Niño drought left 1.2 million rural Papua New Guineans without local food","event_period":"1997-1998 El Niño","location_name":"Simbu and the wider Highlands, within a nationwide rural crisis","latitude":-6.02,"longitude":144.97,"hazard":"severe drought · high-altitude frost · water shortage · bushfire","hazard_family":"Drought / water scarcity","sectors":["subsistence agriculture","food security","water and WASH","health","energy","mining","migration"],"impact_summary":"A UNESCAP subsidiary's field-based assessment says garden produce declined by 80% and up to 40% of the rural population—1.2 million people—had no locally available food by the end of 1997. It also documents failed town and service-centre water supplies, declining rural health and increased mortality in isolated places, thousands migrating, widespread fires, reduced hydroelectricity, and temporary mine closures. The 80% garden decline and 1.2 million estimate are national-level figures. Rain returned unevenly; root-crop supply at high altitude remained constrained until June-July 1998.","association_label":"The report explicitly states that the 1997 drought was associated with a severe ENSO event and explains the regional mechanism, while also warning that severe PNG outcomes do not occur in every ENSO event.","evidence_grade":"A","sources":[{"source_title":"Stabilization of Upland Agriculture under El Nino-induced Climatic Risk: Impact Assessment and Mitigation Measures in Papua New Guinea","publisher":"CGPRT Centre, a subsidiary body of UNESCAP","publication_date":"2003-09","exact_url":"https://repository.unescap.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/57a91818-b708-46e3-bfe2-c4bea7dc8c65/content","locator":"Executive Summary, p. xvi (PDF p. 16); chapter 3, especially pp. 11-20; recovery timing on printed p. 18 (PDF p. 35); government response on printed pp. 35-37","supports":"Historical impact and El Niño context described in this story","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"The 86-page UNESCAP repository PDF opened and was text-searchable on 2026-08-31. National quantities are explicitly labeled as national; the map point is only a representative Highlands anchor. The report is retrospective (2003) but draws on three 1997-98 national field-assessment rounds and documents its sources and methods.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"png-2015-16-highlands-drought-frost","profile_id":"papua-new-guinea","title":"Drought and frost drove severe food insecurity across Papua New Guinea's Highlands","event_period":"2015-2016 El Niño","location_name":"High-altitude Enga, Southern Highlands, Hela, and Western Highlands; also Simbu, Eastern Highlands, West Sepik, inland Gulf, Western, and parts of Milne Bay","latitude":-6,"longitude":144.8,"hazard":"El Niño-associated drought · frost · water-source failure · crop loss","hazard_family":"Drought / water scarcity","sectors":["food security","subsistence agriculture","water and WASH","health","markets and livelihoods"],"impact_summary":"The UN's October 2016 Common Country Analysis says a nationwide government-led assessment found 2.2-2.4 million people affected by drought and frost, while an early-2016 WFP assessment identified around 180,000 people experiencing severe food insecurity. The UN names the high-altitude Highlands provinces and several fringe, inland, mainland, and small-island areas. A contemporaneous IFRC bulletin reported drying creeks and rivers, destroyed or damaged staple gardens in named Highlands districts, water available only at a distance in Category 3-4 drought areas, and knock-on shortages in urban markets.","association_label":"Both UN and IFRC sources explicitly frame the episode as the 2015-16 El Niño drought/frost crisis. The sources document association and operational impacts, not a quantified causal fraction.","evidence_grade":"A","sources":[{"source_title":"United Nations in Papua New Guinea: Common Country Analysis","publisher":"United Nations in Papua New Guinea","publication_date":"2016-10","exact_url":"https://papuanewguinea.un.org/en/download/4106/21166","locator":"Environmental Risks, printed p. 47 (PDF p. 46), especially the paragraph beginning 'During the 2015-2016 El Nino'","supports":"Historical impact and El Niño context described in this story","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Papua New Guinea: Drought and Frost - Information Bulletin","publisher":"International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies","publication_date":"2015-09-05","exact_url":"https://www.ifrc.org/docs?file=Appeals/15/IBPNG050915.pdf","locator":"Pages 1-2: National Weather Service El Niño declaration, onset, named affected districts, crop and water impacts, and government drought categories","supports":"","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"The 56-page UN PDF and the five-page IFRC bulletin opened successfully on 2026-08-31. The 2.2-2.4 million and 180,000 estimates are national and are not assigned to a single province. The source gives no firm end date, so end is null.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"pitcairn-islands-historical-evidence-gap","profile_id":"pitcairn-islands","title":"Pitcairn Islands: historical impact evidence gap","event_period":"Historical El Niño episodes","location_name":"Pitcairn Islands","hazard":"Evidence gap","hazard_family":"Evidence gap","sectors":[],"impact_summary":"No country-specific historical impact story has yet passed the source, location and El Niño-association checks. This is not evidence that no impact occurred.","association_label":"Country-specific observed impact not verified from the reviewed sources.","evidence_grade":"GAP","sources":[],"verification_note":"Retain as a visible research gap until an authoritative or well-triangulated source is located.","photo":null,"is_gap":true},{"story_id":"rmi-1997-98-majuro-laura-water-01","profile_id":"marshall-islands","title":"Laura groundwater became Majuro's emergency drinking-water backbone","event_period":"1997-1998 El Niño","location_name":"Laura area, Majuro Atoll","latitude":7.136,"longitude":171.0427,"hazard":"severe drought · drinking-water shortage · freshwater-lens stress","hazard_family":"Drought / water scarcity","sectors":["water supply","groundwater","disaster response"],"impact_summary":"After several months with less than one inch of rain per month, a drought-related disaster was declared in February 1998. Majuro's runway-catchment reservoirs normally held only 30-50 days of supply without replenishment, so reverse-osmosis units and heavier pumping of the Laura freshwater lens were used. Laura groundwater supplied 90% of consumed drinking water in March and 64% in May. USGS mapped an approximately 350-acre lens at 11 monitoring sites; by late June it was about 45 feet thick in the middle and roughly 25-38 feet at its ends, then thickened 1-8 feet after seven months of rain.","association_label":"The RMI government's First National Communication explicitly identifies the 1997-98 episode as the most recent El Niño and describes the resulting drought, emergency water coping, FEMA support, and continuing recovery; USGS provides the quantitative Majuro water evidence.","evidence_grade":"A","sources":[{"source_title":"Effects of the 1998 Drought on the Freshwater Lens in the Laura Area, Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Islands Water Science Center","publication_date":"2005-01-01","exact_url":"https://www.usgs.gov/publications/effects-1998-drought-freshwater-lens-laura-area-majuro-atoll-republic-marshall-islands","locator":"Abstract; publication metadata; Scientific Investigations Report 2005-5098","supports":"Historical impact and El Niño context described in this story","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Initial Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change","publisher":"Government of the Republic of the Marshall Islands / UNFCCC","publication_date":"2000-09","exact_url":"https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/marnc1.pdf","locator":"PDF pages 45-46 and 49: 1997-98 El Niño drought, water coping and assistance, crop losses","supports":"","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"The USGS page opened successfully on 2026-08-31 and directly exposes every quantity in the summary. The government UNFCCC report also opened and explicitly ties the 1997-98 drought to El Niño. The coordinate is approximate and should not be treated as a monitoring-well location.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"rmi-1997-paka-ailinglaplap-inundation-01","profile_id":"marshall-islands","title":"Before the 1998 drought peaked, Typhoon Paka inundated atolls and hit Ailinglaplap homes and crops","event_period":"1997-98 El Nino","location_name":"Ailinglaplap Atoll, with documented inundation also at Majuro and Namu and damage reported across Arno, Mili and Jaluit","latitude":7.276,"longitude":168.73,"map_points":[{"name":"Ailinglaplap Atoll","latitude":7.276,"longitude":168.73,"note":"UNDRR records 70% of houses affected and US$80 million of damage to crops; the peer-reviewed inundation chronology includes Ailinglaplap in the Paka event."},{"name":"Majuro Atoll","latitude":7.1167,"longitude":171.3667,"note":"Included in the peer-reviewed 10 December 1997 inundation event and NOAA damage area."},{"name":"Namu Atoll","latitude":7.9,"longitude":168.16,"note":"Included in the peer-reviewed 10 December 1997 inundation event."}],"hazard":"El Nino-associated tropical cyclone exposure · coastal and tidal inundation · heavy rain · damaging wind · compound cyclone-drought shock","hazard_family":"Flood / heavy rain","sectors":["housing","food crops and subsistence agriculture","coastal settlements","recovery and food security"],"impact_summary":"A peer-reviewed reconstruction lists Typhoon Paka on 10 December 1997 as a coastal inundation event affecting Majuro, Ailinglaplap and Namu. The NOAA service assessment reports considerable damage across southern atolls, including losses to hundreds of homes and heavy losses of breadfruit, banana and pandanus. UNDRR's 2022 country status report records US$80 million of damage to crops and 70% of houses affected on Ailinglaplap. NOAA also described this as a double shock: a damaging cyclone arriving during an ENSO-related drought, likely prolonging recovery.","association_label":"NOAA's Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center identifies Paka as a historical El Nino-related tropical cyclone in the RMI and explains that nearly all typhoons affecting the RMI occur during El Nino. This supports an ENSO-conditioned risk relationship, not a claim that El Nino alone caused Paka, its track, inundation or damage.","evidence_grade":"A","sources":[{"source_title":"Super Typhoon Paka, December 2 thru 21, 1997: Service Assessment","publisher":"United States National Weather Service, Pacific Region / NOAA","publication_date":"1998-01-01","exact_url":"https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/26766/noaa_26766_DS1.pdf","locator":"Printed page 11 (PDF page 17), Deaths and Damages: affected atolls, hundreds of homes, staple-crop losses, and the compound cyclone-drought recovery statement.","supports":"Atoll-level damage and compound-impact description","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Diagnosis of historical inundation events in the Marshall Islands to assist early warning systems","publisher":"Natural Hazards (Springer Nature); authors from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and RMI National Weather Service","publication_date":"2019-08-10","exact_url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-019-03735-9","locator":"Historical inundation event table, row dated 10 December 1997: Category II, Typhoon Paka, Majuro/Ailinglaplap/Namu; volume 99, pages 189-216.","supports":"Classification and subnational footprint of the Paka coastal inundation event","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Disaster Risk Reduction in the Republic of the Marshall Islands: Status Report 2022","publisher":"United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Sub-Regional Office for the Pacific","publication_date":"2022-09-17","exact_url":"https://www.preventionweb.net/media/83379/download","locator":"Page 29: Typhoon Paka crop-damage value and share of houses affected on Ailinglaplap Atoll.","supports":"Reported damage value and housing impact at Ailinglaplap","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Pacific ENSO Update, Volume 20 Number 3","publisher":"Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center, NOAA/National Weather Service","publication_date":"2014-08-26","exact_url":"https://www.weather.gov/media/peac/PEU/PEU_v20_n3.pdf","locator":"Page 11, Republic of the Marshall Islands section: El Nino dependence of RMI typhoon risk and list of historical El Nino-related cyclones including Paka in December 1997.","supports":"Official ENSO association and risk mechanism","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"Keep the US$80 million figure exactly as reported, in nominal 1997 dollars, and do not combine it with drought losses. The service assessment and UNDRR report do not provide a sector-by-sector causal partition between wind, rain and inundation.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"rmi-2015-16-national-drought-01","profile_id":"marshall-islands","title":"Severe drought affected 21,000 people across urban and outer-island RMI","event_period":"2015-2016 El Niño","location_name":"Urban areas, including Majuro, and outer-island households across the Republic of the Marshall Islands","hazard":"severe drought · extremely low precipitation · water shortage","hazard_family":"Drought / water scarcity","sectors":["water supply","households","livelihoods","recovery planning"],"impact_summary":"The government-led post-disaster assessment states that extremely low precipitation and an especially intense ENSO produced severe drought during 2015 and 2016. By May 2016, 21,000 people were affected, comprising 1,257 households on outer islands and 5,195 households in urban areas. Because national administrative capacity was limited, the government conducted a rapid socio-economic assessment rather than a full PDNA and used it to frame recovery in affected sectors and communities.","association_label":"The government-led PDNA explicitly identifies the especially intense 2015-16 ENSO and extremely low precipitation as the causes of the severe drought.","evidence_grade":"A","sources":[{"source_title":"Republic of the Marshall Islands, Post Disaster Needs Assessment of the 2015-2016 Drought","publisher":"Government of the Republic of the Marshall Islands, GFDRR, and UNDP; catalogued by UNDRR PreventionWeb","publication_date":"2017","exact_url":"https://www.preventionweb.net/publication/documents-and-publications/republic-marshall-islands-post-disaster-needs-assessment","locator":"Publication abstract, affected-population paragraph; downloadable PDNA report","supports":"Historical impact and El Niño context described in this story","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Drought 2015-2016 Marshall Islands Post Disaster Needs Assessment","publisher":"Government of the Republic of the Marshall Islands, GFDRR, and UNDP","publication_date":"2017","exact_url":"https://www.preventionweb.net/media/77824/download","locator":"Full downloadable PDNA","supports":"","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"The UNDRR PreventionWeb landing page opened successfully on 2026-08-31, identifies the government/GFDRR/UNDP sources, and directly displays the ENSO attribution and all affected-person and household counts. The attached report URL also resolved. The household categories are not additive to 21,000 people without household-size data.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"samoa-1997-98-drought-fire-food-crops","profile_id":"samoa","title":"Samoa's delayed 1997–98 El Niño drought brought fire and food-crop losses","event_period":"1997–98 El Niño","location_name":"Apia rainfall station; forest-fire and crop impacts reported for Samoa without a finer location","latitude":-13.8333,"longitude":-171.7667,"hazard":"meteorological drought · forest fire","hazard_family":"Drought / water scarcity","sectors":["agriculture and food security","forestry and terrestrial ecosystems"],"impact_summary":"A peer-reviewed drought synthesis, built with national meteorological-service input and SCOPIC rainfall analysis, identifies an El Niño-associated drought at Apia from April 1998 to January 1999. Apia received 1,859.5 mm against a 2,200.5 mm long-term total for those months, a 15% deficit. The paper and a UN ESCAP/RIMES advisory both report drought-associated forest fires in the 1997–98 dry season. The synthesis also states that the group of major Samoa droughts in 1972, 1983, 1987 and 1997 destroyed 80% of food crops; because its wording does not isolate the 1997 share, the 80% figure is retained only as a qualified contextual quantity, not as a clean 1997-only loss estimate.","association_label":"Iese et al. explicitly selected the Samoa event as one of the droughts associated with the 1997–98 El Niño and explains that its onset was delayed by cyclone rainfall. The fire evidence is explicitly tied to the 1997–98 dry season. The crop percentage is grammatically aggregated across several drought years, so it should not be displayed as an unqualified event-attribution statistic.","evidence_grade":"B+","sources":[{"source_title":"Historical and future drought impacts in the Pacific islands and atolls","publisher":"Climatic Change (Springer Nature)","publication_date":"2021-05-18","exact_url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03112-1","locator":"Section 3.2 and Table 1 (PDF pp. 6–8); section 3.3.5, especially the paragraphs beginning 'The location of countries...' and 'In addition...'; section 3.4","supports":"Direct El Niño association, Apia drought dates and rainfall quantities, delayed onset after cyclones, forest fires, and qualified 80% food-crop statement","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"El Niño 2015/2016: Impact Outlook and Policy Implications","publisher":"United Nations ESCAP and RIMES","publication_date":"2015-12-02","exact_url":"https://repository.unescap.org/bitstreams/3cc6b346-17de-4d55-aa5f-6b02bc8cd24b/download","locator":"Table 1, Samoa row, PDF p. 11","supports":"Drought-associated forest fires during the 1997–98 dry season","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"Both URLs opened successfully. Table 1 values were checked against the article PDF. The drought window extends into January 1999; that is how the source profiles the 1997–98 El Niño-associated event. The 80% crop figure must keep its aggregation caveat.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"samoa-2015-16-declared-drought-water-conservation","profile_id":"samoa","title":"Samoa declared meteorological drought and asked households to conserve water","event_period":"2015–16 El Niño","location_name":"Apia rainfall station; drought declaration and conservation request were national","latitude":-13.8333,"longitude":-171.7667,"hazard":"meteorological drought · water shortage risk","hazard_family":"Drought / water scarcity","sectors":["water resources","households","emergency management"],"impact_summary":"During the strong 2015–16 El Niño, Samoa declared a meteorological drought and asked people to conserve water. At Apia, SCOPIC analysis later identified two drought spells: September–November 2015 received 604.0 mm versus a 876.1 mm long-term total (31% lower), and March–April 2016 received 582.1 mm versus 922.6 mm (37% lower). The sources document the public water-conservation response but do not quantify household shortages or downstream crop losses for this episode.","association_label":"The peer-reviewed synthesis explicitly classifies both Apia spells under the 2015–16 El Niño drought event, and the December 2015 UN advisory describes Samoa's declaration among measures responding to El Niño impacts.","evidence_grade":"A-","sources":[{"source_title":"Historical and future drought impacts in the Pacific islands and atolls","publisher":"Climatic Change (Springer Nature)","publication_date":"2021-05-18","exact_url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03112-1","locator":"Section 3.2 and Table 1, 2015–16 El Niño rows for Apia (PDF pp. 6–8)","supports":"Direct El Niño association, dates, rainfall totals, long-term totals and deficits","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"El Niño 2015/2016: Impact Outlook and Policy Implications","publisher":"United Nations ESCAP and RIMES","publication_date":"2015-12-02","exact_url":"https://repository.unescap.org/bitstreams/3cc6b346-17de-4d55-aa5f-6b02bc8cd24b/download","locator":"Policy Recommendations, PDF p. 14, paragraph beginning 'Already, countries of Asia-Pacific are acting...'","supports":"Samoa's meteorological-drought declaration and request that people conserve water","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"Both URLs opened successfully. Observed drought spells are kept separate; the interval between them is not described as continuously drought-affected.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"solomon-islands-1997-98-honiara-water-schools","profile_id":"solomon-islands","title":"Honiara's 1997-98 ENSO drought cut water supply and disrupted schools","event_period":"1997-1998 El Niño","location_name":"Honiara, Guadalcanal","latitude":-9.4319,"longitude":159.9556,"hazard":"ENSO-associated drought · reduced catchment flow · urban water shortage","hazard_family":"Drought / water scarcity","sectors":["urban water supply","education","public services"],"impact_summary":"Solomon Islands' official National Adaptation Programme of Action says water flow into the Honiara Water Supply Catchment fell to 30-40% of water supply during the 1997-98 drought. It says most school programmes in and around Honiara were disrupted as a consequence. Elsewhere in the same document, the government describes the 1997-98 ENSO as causing a 30-40% reduction in Honiara water supplies.","association_label":"The government NAPA explicitly refers to the 1997-98 ENSO when stating the 30-40% Honiara water-supply reduction.","evidence_grade":"A-","sources":[{"source_title":"Solomon Islands National Adaptation Programme of Action","publisher":"Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Meteorology, Government of Solomon Islands","publication_date":"2008-11","exact_url":"https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/slb01.pdf","locator":"Water Resources, printed p. 36 (PDF p. 35); Education, printed p. 54 (PDF pp. 52-53); priority-project discussion, printed p. 74 (PDF p. 73)","supports":"Historical impact and El Niño context described in this story","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"SOLOMON ISLANDS (28 November)","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Global Information and Early Warning System","publication_date":"1997-11-28","exact_url":"https://www.fao.org/4/w7447e/pays/soi9712e.htm","locator":"Countrywide drought opening paragraph","supports":"","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"The 136-page UNFCCC-hosted government PDF opened and was text-searchable on 2026-08-31. The source alternates between wording that supply was 'compromised ... by 30-40%' and that catchment flow was 'reduced ... to 30-40%'; the summary uses the more precise catchment-flow wording and does not turn it into a computed percentage loss. Publication month is confirmed by UNDP/ADB catalogue records; the PDF cover does not print an exact day.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"solomon-islands-1997-bellona-food-water-shortage","profile_id":"solomon-islands","title":"Bellona faced food and water shortages after months of 1997 drought","event_period":"1997-1998 El Niño","location_name":"Bellona Island, Rennell and Bellona Province; wider crop impacts were reported in Western, Choiseul, Central, and Isabel provinces","latitude":-11.296,"longitude":159.798,"hazard":"severe drought · food shortage · water shortage · crop stress","hazard_family":"Drought / water scarcity","sectors":["food security","subsistence agriculture","water and WASH","disaster management"],"impact_summary":"FAO reported that most of Solomon Islands was in serious drought after below-average rain since June 1997. Rural crops in Western, Choiseul, Central, and Isabel were wilting or stunted and soils had begun to crack. On Bellona, an assessment team reported food and water shortages and expected food to run out within four weeks. This was an outlook at the 28 November snapshot, not a subsequently verified exhaustion date.","association_label":"The FAO alert documents the drought impact but does not name ENSO on its short page. Solomon Islands' official Second National Communication states that the 1997-98 El Niño caused severe drought in many parts, affected food gardens, and prompted food distribution; the government NAPA also labels the 1997-98 episode ENSO.","evidence_grade":"A-","sources":[{"source_title":"SOLOMON ISLANDS (28 November)","publisher":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Global Information and Early Warning System","publication_date":"1997-11-28","exact_url":"https://www.fao.org/4/w7447e/pays/soi9712e.htm","locator":"Entire single-page country alert, especially the Bellona assessment paragraph","supports":"Historical impact and El Niño context described in this story","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Solomon Islands Second National Communication","publisher":"Ministry of Environment, Climate Change, Disaster Management and Meteorology, Government of Solomon Islands","publication_date":"2017-09","exact_url":"https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/SI%20SNC%20FINAL_1-1.pdf","locator":"§3.2.5 Extreme Events, Drought, PDF/printed p. 75","supports":"Solomon Islands’ second communication attributes severe 1997–98 drought in many parts of the country to El Niño and records food-garden damage and food distribution.","verification_status":"Original document checked; source-specific historical account"}],"verification_note":"The FAO page opened successfully on 2026-08-31. The official UNFCCC-hosted national communication and NAPA PDFs also opened. The original Second National Communication was recovered and its page 75 drought passage checked in v149. The four-week statement is kept as a contemporaneous forecast, not converted into a claim that food did run out.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"tokelau-historical-evidence-gap","profile_id":"tokelau","title":"Tokelau: historical impact evidence gap","event_period":"Historical El Niño episodes","location_name":"Tokelau","hazard":"Evidence gap","hazard_family":"Evidence gap","sectors":[],"impact_summary":"No country-specific historical impact story has yet passed the source, location and El Niño-association checks. This is not evidence that no impact occurred.","association_label":"Country-specific observed impact not verified from the reviewed sources.","evidence_grade":"GAP","sources":[],"verification_note":"Retain as a visible research gap until an authoritative or well-triangulated source is located.","photo":null,"is_gap":true},{"story_id":"tonga-1997-98-drought-crops-groundwater","profile_id":"tonga","title":"Tonga's 1997–98 drought stunted crops and stressed shallow groundwater","event_period":"1997–98 El Niño","location_name":"Ha'apai and Nuku'alofa/Tongatapu; impact descriptions are national","latitude":-19.8,"longitude":-174.35,"hazard":"meteorological drought · agricultural drought · groundwater stress · marine heat stress","hazard_family":"Drought / water scarcity","sectors":["agriculture and livestock","water resources","reef ecosystems"],"impact_summary":"Tonga's 1997–98 El Niño drought affected both crops and freshwater. A UN ESCAP/RIMES synthesis reports that the severe 1998 drought stunted sweet potatoes and coconuts and badly affected livestock, especially swine; the prolonged 1997–98 drought significantly affected shallow groundwater systems, and warm sea-surface temperatures were associated with coral bleaching. SCOPIC station analysis measured 1,051.0 mm at Ha'apai from February–December 1998 against a 1,523.1 mm long-term total (31% lower). Nuku'alofa had two spells: July 1997–March 1998 was 25% below its matching long-term total and June–November 1998 was 23% below.","association_label":"Iese et al. explicitly selected these Tonga station droughts as associated with the 1997–98 El Niño. The UN advisory's table is specifically framed as historical sector impacts of El Niño, although it summarizes national reports rather than supplying formal single-impact attribution.","evidence_grade":"A-","sources":[{"source_title":"Historical and future drought impacts in the Pacific islands and atolls","publisher":"Climatic Change (Springer Nature)","publication_date":"2021-05-18","exact_url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03112-1","locator":"Section 3.2 and Table 1, 1997–98 rows for Ha'apai and Nuku'alofa (PDF pp. 6–8); section 3.4","supports":"Direct El Niño association, station drought dates and rainfall quantities, and drought following TC Ron in Ha'apai","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"El Niño 2015/2016: Impact Outlook and Policy Implications","publisher":"United Nations ESCAP and RIMES","publication_date":"2015-12-02","exact_url":"https://repository.unescap.org/bitstreams/3cc6b346-17de-4d55-aa5f-6b02bc8cd24b/download","locator":"Table 1, Tonga row, PDF p. 11","supports":"1998 crop and livestock impacts, 1997–98 shallow-groundwater impacts, and 1997–98 coral bleaching","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"Both URLs opened successfully. The crop/livestock statement groups severe droughts in 1983, 1998 and 2006 but explicitly includes 1998; the story does not invent a 1998-specific loss percentage.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"tonga-2015-16-eua-drought-water-response","profile_id":"tonga","title":"Eight months of drought hit 'Eua hardest and triggered outer-island water support","event_period":"2015–16 El Niño","location_name":"'Eua most affected; emergency water support to outer islands; Ha'apai and Nuku'alofa station evidence","latitude":-21.37,"longitude":-174.93,"hazard":"meteorological drought · water shortage","hazard_family":"Drought / water scarcity","sectors":["water resources","households","emergency management"],"impact_summary":"By December 2015 Tonga had declared drought after eight months of dry conditions, with 'Eua—home to about 7,000 people—reported as the most affected island. Emergency water supplies were being distributed to outer islands and desalination services were made available. Later SCOPIC analysis measured 655.5 mm at Ha'apai from December 2015–March 2016 against 831.2 mm long term (21% lower), while Nuku'alofa recorded 1,098.9 mm from October 2015–April 2016 against 1,645.9 mm (33% lower). The population figure describes 'Eua's population; it is not a count of people individually verified as affected.","association_label":"The contemporaneous UN advisory calls the ongoing conditions El Niño impacts, and Iese et al. explicitly classifies the station droughts under the 2015–16 El Niño event.","evidence_grade":"A-","sources":[{"source_title":"El Niño 2015/2016: Impact Outlook and Policy Implications","publisher":"United Nations ESCAP and RIMES","publication_date":"2015-12-02","exact_url":"https://repository.unescap.org/bitstreams/3cc6b346-17de-4d55-aa5f-6b02bc8cd24b/download","locator":"Table 1, Tonga row, PDF p. 11; Policy Recommendations, PDF p. 14","supports":"Drought declaration, eight-month duration, 'Eua location and population context, emergency outer-island water deliveries and desalination availability","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Historical and future drought impacts in the Pacific islands and atolls","publisher":"Climatic Change (Springer Nature)","publication_date":"2021-05-18","exact_url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03112-1","locator":"Section 3.2 and Table 1, 2015–16 El Niño rows for Ha'apai and Nuku'alofa (PDF pp. 6–8)","supports":"Direct El Niño association and station drought dates, totals and deficits","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"Both URLs opened successfully. Iese et al.'s Nuku'alofa row prints October 2015–April 2016 but also labels the duration as 11 months; those dates span seven calendar months. This record retains the printed dates and rainfall values but does not repeat the internally inconsistent duration.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"tuvalu-1997-cyclone-keli-niulakita","profile_id":"tuvalu","title":"Cyclone Keli damaged Niulakita housing during the rapid onset of the 1997–98 El Niño","event_period":"1997–98 El Niño onset","location_name":"Niulakita; broader 1997 cyclone impacts reported across Tuvalu's atolls","latitude":-10.79,"longitude":179.47,"hazard":"tropical cyclone · damaging wind · large waves and marine flooding","hazard_family":"Cyclone / coastal","sectors":["housing","infrastructure and communications","agriculture and food security","water storage"],"impact_summary":"A Keli-specific damage assessment for Niulakita valued repair of damaged housing to the original design at AU$12,000; cyclone-resistant reconstruction was estimated at AU$84,000, seven times the repair estimate. A UNDP retrospective groups Keli with Cyclones Gavin and Hina in 1997 and reports that the three storms' heavy rain, strong winds and large waves severely damaged atoll infrastructure and communications and caused marine flooding that damaged tree crops, taro gardens and water-storage facilities. The sector-wide description is therefore not assigned to Keli alone. Keli occurred in June 1997 as the strong El Niño was rapidly developing, and Tuvalu Meteorological Service later recalled Keli in its local El Niño-arrival communication; no source reviewed provides deterministic single-storm attribution.","association_label":"A user-supplied transcription attributed to the Tuvalu Meteorological Services media release of 27 May 2015, posted 4 June 2015, recalls Keli on 7–10 June 1997. The original post has not been independently authenticated. The supplied text groups damage from Gavin, Hina and Keli; it is historical local framing, not proof of individual-storm ENSO causation.","evidence_grade":"B+","sources":[{"source_title":"Economic Impact of Natural Disasters on Development in the Pacific, Volume 2: Economic Assessment Tools","publisher":"Australian Agency for International Development; University of the South Pacific and SOPAC","publication_date":"2005-05","exact_url":"https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/impact_pacific_tools.pdf","locator":"Tool One, Box 5, 'Using Alternative Methods to Value Housing Damage Caused by Cyclone Keli in Tuvalu' (PDF p. 21; printed p. 19)","supports":"Keli-specific Niulakita housing-damage and reconstruction estimates","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Rising to the challenge","publisher":"United Nations Development Programme Pacific Office","publication_date":"2020-10-13","exact_url":"https://www.undp.org/pacific/press-releases/rising-challenge","locator":"Paragraph beginning 'Tropical Cyclone Gavin, Hina and Keli in 1997...'","supports":"Grouped 1997 damage to infrastructure, communications, crops, taro gardens and water storage","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"27 May 2015 Media Release — El Niño Has Arrived","publisher":"Tuvalu Meteorological Service","publication_date":"2015-05-27","exact_url":"https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid0t82t7foy1711CcViSDpiLG6fTeeu5VxVkdzPEHsXLsW6UdBdHRFQ8RCR9Y3YXRhzl&id=100063475390732","locator":"User-supplied copy: historical paragraph on Keli; following sentence describes losses from the cyclones collectively","supports":"A user-supplied copy attributed to the Tuvalu Meteorological Services media release of 27 May 2015 (Facebook post dated 4 June 2015) recalls Keli on 7–10 June 1997. Its following statement describes crop, erosion and housing damage from the cyclones collectively, not separately quantified Keli losses. This is historical source framing, not independent ENSO causal attribution.","verification_status":"User-supplied transcription; original not independently authenticated","evidence_id":"E0546"},{"source_title":"Regional Statement on the El Niño and Potential Impacts for the Pacific Islands","publisher":"Pacific Meteorological Council and regional meteorological partners","publication_date":"2015-10-16","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/sites/default/files/inline-files/documents/Regional%20statement%20FINAL-%2016Oct2015.pdf","locator":"PDF p. 1, 'Some Potential Impacts' and 'Typhoon/Tropical Cyclone Outlook'","supports":"General seasonal relationship between El Niño and Pacific cyclone numbers/tracks","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"DFAT, UNDP and PacificMet remain separate sources with their own recorded review status. The Tuvalu release is now represented by a user-supplied text copy; the original Facebook post could not be independently retrieved. Do not present the copy as independent verification, or assign grouped cyclone impacts to Keli alone.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"tuvalu-2015-16-ula-homes-waves","profile_id":"tuvalu","title":"Cyclone Ula damaged about 40 Tuvalu homes amid an El Niño-active cyclone season","event_period":"2015–16 El Niño","location_name":"Tuvalu, island(s) not specified in the report","latitude":-8.52,"longitude":179.2,"hazard":"tropical cyclone/severe tropical storm · gale-force wind · heavy rain · high waves","hazard_family":"Cyclone / coastal","sectors":["housing","transport and debris clearance","emergency management"],"impact_summary":"As Ula passed over Tuvalu as a severe tropical storm, gale-force winds and pounding rain uprooted trees, ripped off roofs and reportedly damaged about 40 homes. UNICEF Pacific reported continuing heavy rain, thunderstorms and gale-force storms producing three-to-four-metre waves, while disaster committees on all islands responded to the alert. ABC's report directly discussed El Niño as seasonal 'fuel' for a more active Pacific cyclone season; the profile does not claim that El Niño alone caused Ula's track, intensity or damage.","association_label":"The impact report itself explains that El Niño-season warm water supports more active cyclone seasons, and the regional PacificMet statement forecast above-normal activity near and east of the Date Line. Neither source performs single-storm attribution for Ula.","evidence_grade":"B+","sources":[{"source_title":"Tuvalu battered by heavy rains, strong winds as Pacific island nations brace for Cyclone Ula","publisher":"ABC News / Pacific Beat","publication_date":"2016-01-01","exact_url":"https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-01/pacific-island-nations-battered-by-heavy-rains-and-strong-winds/7061982","locator":"Main report paragraphs beginning 'Residents in the Pacific island nation...' and 'UNICEF Pacific said...'; section 'El Nino weather pattern fuel for more cyclones'","supports":"Observed damage, approximately 40 homes, three-to-four-metre waves, all-island committee response, Ula passage, and seasonal El Niño explanation","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Regional Statement on the El Niño and Potential Impacts for the Pacific Islands","publisher":"Pacific Meteorological Council and regional meteorological partners","publication_date":"2015-10-16","exact_url":"https://www.pacificmet.net/sites/default/files/inline-files/documents/Regional%20statement%20FINAL-%2016Oct2015.pdf","locator":"PDF p. 1, 'Some Potential Impacts' and 'Typhoon/Tropical Cyclone Outlook'","supports":"Strong El Niño context and above-normal southwest-Pacific cyclone activity expected near/east of the Date Line","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"Both URLs opened successfully. The ABC article says 'about 40' in one passage and 'more than 40' in a photo caption; the summary conservatively uses 'about 40.' No unlicensed article photo is reused.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"vu-2015-16-elnino-drought-post-pam","profile_id":"vanuatu","title":"After Cyclone Pam, El Niño drought deepened Vanuatu's food and water crisis","event_period":"2015-2016 El Niño, in a 2015-2017 compound climate-extremes sequence","location_name":"Tanna and southern Vanuatu, with national food-aid and water-shortage context","latitude":-19.455,"longitude":169.224,"hazard":"El Niño-associated meteorological drought · hydrological drought · agricultural drought · compound post-cyclone impacts","hazard_family":"Compound / mixed","sectors":["water and WASH","food security and agriculture","education","health","livelihoods"],"impact_summary":"A peer-reviewed synthesis reports that most water tanks were empty or held only small amounts of heavily contaminated water; people in about 20% of households walked more than 30 minutes to wash, bathe, or collect water; households able to pay spent about US$12 per truck trip for water; and primary schools operated half-days. Drawing on a two-village qualitative study, the review reports that yams and taro died in the studied settings; this is not generalized independently to every island. UN ESCAP/RIMES reported that emergency food distribution targeted around 90,000 people and that communities faced food and water shortages connected with an El Niño-induced drought. Cyclone Pam's damage to gardens, foliage, and rainwater systems materially compounded the drought.","association_label":"The sources explicitly call the drought El Niño-induced. They also describe a compound sequence in which Category 5 Cyclone Pam increased vulnerability and delayed recovery, so drought-only impact fractions cannot be assigned.","evidence_grade":"B+","sources":[{"source_title":"Historical and future drought impacts in the Pacific islands and atolls","publisher":"Climatic Change (Springer Nature)","publication_date":"2021-05-18","exact_url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03112-1","locator":"Table 1, pp. 7-8; section 3.3.1, p. 9; section 3.4, pp. 11-12","supports":"Historical impact and El Niño context described in this story","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"El Niño 2015/2016: Impact Outlook and Policy Implications","publisher":"United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific and Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System","publication_date":"2015-12-02","exact_url":"https://repository.unescap.org/bitstreams/3cc6b346-17de-4d55-aa5f-6b02bc8cd24b/download","locator":"Table 1, Vanuatu row, printed p. 12 (PDF p. 11)","supports":"","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Climate extremes constrain agency and long-term health: A qualitative case study in a Pacific Small Island Developing State","publisher":"Weather and Climate Extremes / Elsevier; record hosted by Australian National University","publication_date":"2021-03","exact_url":"https://researchportalplus.anu.edu.au/en/publications/climate-extremes-constrain-agency-and-long-term-health-a-qualitat/","locator":"Abstract and bibliographic record; DOI 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100293","supports":"","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"The open-access Springer article/PDF, ANU article record, and UN ESCAP/RIMES PDF opened successfully on 2026-08-31. The 90,000 figure is worded as the target of food distribution, not confirmed recipients. Station coordinates and rainfall intervals are anchors; national impacts are not assigned to Whitegrass alone. The cyclone-drought compound nature is explicit.","photo":null,"is_gap":false},{"story_id":"wlf-1998-wallis-cyclone-ron-01","profile_id":"wallis-and-futuna","title":"Cyclone Ron damaged homes and subsistence agriculture village by village on Wallis","event_period":"1997-1998 El Nino","location_name":"Wallis Island (Uvea); village-by-village dwelling assessments","latitude":-13.2825,"longitude":-176.1745,"hazard":"Tropical Cyclone Ron; wind and rain damage during the 1997-98 El Nino","hazard_family":"Cyclone / coastal","sectors":["housing","subsistence agriculture","food security","electricity","public finance","humanitarian response"],"impact_summary":"France's National Assembly record says the scale of dwelling damage on Wallis required a detailed village-by-village inventory. Agricultural losses were difficult to value because food crops were largely consumed within families rather than sold; assessors valued losses using the cost of nutritionally equivalent substitute foods such as rice and wheat. Immediate emergency assistance was released, followed by a state credit envelope of 7.5 million French francs. A contemporaneous regional review separately reports major damage to plantations, homes and electricity installations and estimates total damage at nearly 20 million French francs; the 7.5 million figure is public assistance, not total loss.","association_label":"Ron struck during the exceptionally strong 1997-98 El Nino. The sources reviewed establish temporal co-occurrence but do not attribute Ron's formation, track, intensity or Wallis losses to El Nino. The story must therefore be labelled as an event during an El Nino episode, not an El Nino-caused loss.","evidence_grade":"A","sources":[{"source_title":"Question ecrite no. 12800: TOM - Wallis-et-Futuna","publisher":"Assemblee nationale, Republique francaise","publication_date":"1998-05-04","exact_url":"https://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/dyn/11/questions/QANR5L11QE12800","locator":"Question and government response, paragraphs/lines 99-105: dates, emergency aid, village housing assessments, subsistence-crop valuation and 7.5 MF envelope","supports":"Historical impact and El Niño context described in this story","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Zone Pacifique - L'Annee francophone internationale 1999","publisher":"L'Annee francophone internationale; archived by IRD Horizon","publication_date":"1999","exact_url":"https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/pleins_textes_7/b_fdi_53-54/010016528.pdf","locator":"Wallis and Futuna section, printed p. 259 (PDF p. 10): major damage to plantations, housing and electricity; total damage estimated near 20 million French francs","supports":"","verification_status":"Verified"},{"source_title":"Pacific ENSO Update - 1st Quarter 1998 - Vol. 4 No. 1","publisher":"Pacific ENSO Applications Center, University of Hawai'i","publication_date":"1998-Q1","exact_url":"https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/MET/Enso/peu/update.dir/Update-1stQtr98.html","locator":"Opening statement that the extremely strong 1997-98 El Nino persisted and was affecting Pacific island climate","supports":"","verification_status":"Verified"}],"verification_note":"The official parliamentary HTML record opened successfully on 2026-08-31. It distinguishes the relief/compensation envelope from damage valuation; the two amounts must not be conflated.","photo":{"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Ron_1998-01-06_0000Z.jpg","source_page":"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ron_1998-01-06_0000Z.jpg","creator":"NOAA GOES-9 imagery; true-colour overlay by ViridLeWiki using NASA Blue Marble","licence":"Public domain in the United States, as stated on the Wikimedia Commons file page","caption":"Cyclone Ron near peak intensity on 6 January 1998. Satellite composite; it does not show damage on Wallis."},"is_gap":false}],"subnational_boundaries":[{"profile_id":"american-samoa","level":"ADM0","unit_label":"American Samoa","year":"2021","source":"Sentinel-2 10-Meter Land Use/LandCover","licence":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)","source_url":"https://www.geoboundaries.org/api/current/gbOpen/ASM/ADM0/","download_url":"https://github.com/wmgeolab/geoBoundaries/raw/9469f09/releaseData/gbOpen/ASM/ADM0/geoBoundaries-ASM-ADM0_simplified.geojson","source_data_url":"https://env1.arcgis.com/arcgis/rest/services/Sentinel2_10m_LandCover/ImageServer","display_note":"Country/territory outline only; no compatible ADM1 layer was available in this release. Show evidence as sourced points or labels, not polygon intensity.","features":[{"name":"American 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Territory of Guam","year":"2021","source":"Sentinel-2 10-Meter Land Use/LandCover","licence":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)","source_url":"https://www.geoboundaries.org/api/current/gbOpen/GUM/ADM0/","download_url":"https://github.com/wmgeolab/geoBoundaries/raw/9469f09/releaseData/gbOpen/GUM/ADM0/geoBoundaries-GUM-ADM0_simplified.geojson","source_data_url":"https://env1.arcgis.com/arcgis/rest/services/Sentinel2_10m_LandCover/ImageServer","display_note":"Country/territory outline only; no compatible ADM1 layer was available in this release. Show evidence as sourced points or labels, not polygon 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